2016-2017 State of U.S. Men Figure Skating

[TontoK]

It will come down to the Corsaire, the Spy, the Clubber, and the Matador. I don't think anyone else will be close unless someone has a total meltdown.

I'll be interested in the SP scores as these have seemed wildly inconsistent over the last two years.

2015
1. Jason Brown 93.36 - a flawless performance but sans quad
2. Joshua Farris 90.40 - turn out on the end of the combination, sans quad ( :sad21: )
3. Jeremy Abbott 89.93 - sans quad, wonky 3A and dropped levels
4. Max Aaron 85.78 - one quad with wonky landing, but this was footloose so I'm not complaining too hard about that PCS.

2016
1. Max Aaron 91.83 - flawless performance including 4-3 combo
2. Ross Miner 90.90 - clean performance but no quad
3. Adam Rippon 88.01 - sloppy combo and dropped levels
4. Nathan Chen 86.33 - two quads attempted, combo one completed, other quad + 3A sloppy, V on one spin

Looking at the results 2015 v 2016 makes zero sense and makes me wonder where the whole "ohhhh arteestes are at such a disadvantage because evil quad brigade!" comes from. Patently untrue in the US.

Nathan has the most margin for error, and Max the least; Adam and Jason will probably still end up in the mid-80s with errors (assuming they're not bomby errors). There are question marks for all of them, but Max is the one with the most power to upset a whole lot of people if he goes clean, particularly if the 4T makes a successful return in his SP.

I suppose the real question is: if it comes to that, would the USFS allow a team of Nathan and Max? I don't see any reason why they shouldn't if Max does well at Nationals.

Not only could they, they SHOULD.

Technical advancements are getting away from us. Not even a one-quad program is going to have any sort of scoring impact at a World Championship. Now, even two quads seems to be just ok, nothing special.

 

[andromache]

Ultimately, I think a team of Nathan and then Jason/Adam/Max is most likely to win back 3 spots. Last year showed that Adam and Max don't have the scoring potential for those three spots, and it's probable that Jason doesn't either. Nathan does, and then Adam or Jason or Max (whoever skates best at Nationals) can be the solid number 2. Sure, it's very possible that Nathan could skate poorly and blow it, but it's better than sending a team who can't win back the three spots while skating their best. There's no question that Nathan skating his best (like here at GPF) can, backed up with a solid skate from Max or Adam or Jason, place high enough to help get those spots back.

 

[Tavi...]

Not only could they, they SHOULD.

Technical advancements are getting away from us. Not even a one-quad program is going to have any sort of scoring impact at a World Championship. Now, even two quads seems to be just ok, nothing special.

Umm. Without meaning any disrespect to Max - who I like and root for - you might want to take a look at the numbers:

Season's Best Scores: Jason 268.38, Adam 267.53, Max 242.7
Ranking on Season's Best List: Jason 8 (behind Hanyu, Fernandez, Uno, Chen, Chan, Jin, and Ten), Adam 9, Max 16

Personal Best Scores / Ranking: Jason 268.38 (12), Adam 267.53 (14), Max 258.95 (18)

Jason and Adam both just had bad competitions, which is a concern. Max generally has lower levels, GOE, and PCS than either Adam or Jason, which is also a concern.

I think that if Max out skates Adam and Jason at Nats he will be on the World Team.

 

[Matilda]

Congratulations to Nathan Chen!:hap57::hap93:

Incredible. He's 17 years old, first year senior, at his first GPF, skating against all these seasoned gorgeous skaters ... three of whom are giants in figure skating! And he wins the free skate, first time out. Nathan demonstrated his passion, and desire, and incredible power, drive and focus. Way to go!!!:dance:

Let's also celebrate a milestone for U.S. men. Adam and Nathan, the first two men to make the GPF since Lysacek, Weir and Abbott in 2009. And Nathan is the first US man to medal since Abbott won bronze in 2011. (if I'm not mistaken.... I can't check Wiki right at the moment .... we have Lake Effect snow, and the Wind Effect is presently wreaking havoc with my internet.)

A silver medal in this men's field is simply amazing. Be injury free, Nathan, follow coaches', doctors, and trainers' advice. But mostly, 3 cheers!:yes:

Nathan is the first US man to medal in the GPF since 2009 (Jeremy did not medal in 2011). I, too, hope Nathan will stay healthy and we'll see him medal many, many times in years to come! Congrats, Nathan!

 

[FlattFan]

A chacun son goût: I love Hanyu, but as to artistry I'll take Jason over Hanyu and Shoma every time.

I guess you won't have to fight with a lot of people to take Jason.

 

[Tavi...]

I guess you won't have to fight with a lot of people to take Jason.

That doesn't really matter to me.

Having performed myself at a high level and worked with some of the greats in my own field, I feel pretty confident in my own judgment. But I'm not gonna criticize someone else's taste.


ETA for other folks: really nice ISU still of Nathan showing off his balletic line:

https://instagram.com/p/BN3-lyVBZb4/

 

[el henry]

I guess you won't have to fight with a lot of people to take Jason.

Another vote for Jason (but @tavi and I won't fight)

Having ubered Toller when he had to fight and scrap just to get bronze, I could not give the tiniest of rat's patooties about scores, standings or medals. (And no many how many times I say that, someone who wants to argue about Jason always mentions standings, scores or medals. Am I not making myself clear?)

Been around long enough to know what I like. One benefit of longevity

 

[Mrs. P]

I'm working on the post-GP Men report, including some key stats for the top 4, namely quad and 3A attempts. Nathan's quad stats made me think about the book I'm reading: "The ONE Thing: The Surprisingly Simple Truth Behind Extraordinary Results."

To totally keep the author from getting another sale, I'll tell you what this truth is "What's the ONE Thing you can do such that by doing it everything else will be easier or unnecessary?"

I don't have all the stats on hand, but here's an interesting stat: Out of Nathan Chen's 26 quad attempts, he has rotated 25 of them. Yes, he could do better on the +GOE (that figure is much smaller, but I can't remember at the moment) and yes there is much desired in choreography, but Nathan's applying the principle I just stated above -- by at least rotating his quads, at minimum, he is at least racking up enough points to score big and when he hits them, like GPF, other stuff -- like PCS and spin/steps can quickly be forgiven.

If he just simply does the quads like he does GPF, he wins U.S. Nationals. No question. It's pure math.

None of the other U.S. men has this.

However, the The ONE Thing principle also applies to the other U.S. Men, if they choose to apply it.

Jason cannot rotate 26 quads. That's out of his control and no amount of consternation about the matter can change that. However, Jason continues to claw his way into the conversation because of his ONE thing -- which is to generally be a good competitor (NHK Trophy aside -- it was really the worse competition of his entire senior career. That 218 score he got, is actually the lowest he's ever received, by a whopping 10 points from his FIRST senior competition back in 2013.) and to max out the points through backloading, spins and steps, PCS bullets. I wouldn't say doing this would make the quad unecessary, but at least if he rotates it or attempts it, it keeps him easily in the top 10 in the world while he integrates that quad, i.e. he can likely get a spot on the World team/help get 3 spots).

I think Adam too has done the same as Jason -- his FS is backloaded with two 2 3As and he can max out the spins and steps -- but he does miss levels on spins and steps...which he can't really afford to do (neither can Jason).

While I admire Max Aaron for wanting to improve his all-around skating, it's really clearly taken a dent on his jumps, which he really needs to be consistent in. I think he's starting to turn a corner, in the last few competitions, but he needs to just hit the quads and the jumps consistently and not worry about about his artistry beyond whether it enables him to get those big point getters.

The U.S. Men as a whole isn't looking too bad to get three spots. Yes, there's Nathan, but as others pointed up, Jason and Adam are pretty high on the SB list and Max isn't far behind that. The only country that perhaps have had a better season in the men's discipline is Japan and Russia, namely cause of Voronov and the very promising juniors ( 4 men in JGPF).

Of course there are ton of single/duo-country spoilers: Patrick Chan/Kevin Reynolds, Javier Fernandez , Denis Ten and Boyang Jin (and Yan Han may improve too), Alexei Bychenko/Daniel Samohin,

 

[karne]

I could not give the tiniest of rat's patooties about scores, standings or medals.

That's nice, el henry, but not giving a rat's patootie about scores/standings/medals doesn't get the third spot back for the US and increases the potential for Jason to not be able to add a second Olympics to his first.

While I admire Max Aaron for wanting to improve his all-around skating, it's really clearly taken a dent on his jumps, which he really needs to be consistent in. I think he's starting to turn a corner, in the last few competitions, but he needs to just hit the quads and the jumps consistently and not worry about about his artistry beyond whether it enables him to get those big point getters.

That's nice to say, Mrs P, but he can't do that. He has to worry about it. The USFS showed that all it takes is for him to double one Salchow and blam, they'll smack him in the kneecaps and shove someone else above him. He doesn't get the free passes Nathan and Adam get. Adam can stand around posing and waggling his fingers - but that's great artistry! If Max has a pause, meanwhile - "EEEEEEEEEEW HE'S SO TERRIBLE WHO CARES IF HE'S LANDING QUADS". Nathan can do little more than stroke from jump to jump for four and a half minutes and "wow! isn't he great! NEW KING NEW KING NEW KING". If Max takes out even so much as one turn of choreography "UGGGGGGGGGH HIS PROGRAMS ARE SO EMPTY AND HORRIBLE".

He has to worry about it because he is the one that actually gets punished for "not being artistic". Even when he hits all the jumps it's not good enough for people.

Besides, he wants to worry about it. Not that anyone actually believes that, apparently.

 

[frida80]

After the Grand Prix final, I am now more excited than ever 4CC. Eight of ten of the top scoring men can compete there; Yuzuru, Patrick, Shoma, Nathan, Patrick, Boyang, Adam and Jason! It's like a pre-world's face off. Now the question is, other than everyone qualifying for 4CC, is Yuzuru going? He hasn't gone for four years. On the other hand his 4Lo is unpredictable and he falls on his 2nd 4S. I suppose will know after Japanese nationals. :think:

As for Europeans. I guess I'll look forward to seeing Javi win again. Maybe he'll get his short clean finally.

 

[karne]

After the Grand Prix final, I am now more excited than ever 4CC. Eight of ten of the top scoring men can compete there; Yuzuru, Patrick, Shoma, Nathan, Patrick, Boyang, Adam and Jason! It's like a pre-world's face off.

Excuse me? The 4CC team hasn't been picked yet and there is one you are only too happy to throw on the garbage heap who will undoubtedly want to have his say.

 

[eta]

Congrats to Nathan for silver at GPF in his first senior season!

It used to be first have clean programs and get PCS up then add to TES but now some men are doing lots of TES then work on PCS later, which seems to have worked in Nathan's case. Would love to see the first jumps more spaced out with more content in between, in the future of course, he's already done so much this season which is only halfway through.


Happy for Max getting a new program! And maybe a new costume as well?


Nationals will be interesting :hap57:


topic: I'm dying to say something about this: Mrs. P your posts from time to time make the thread bold even after I read all the new posts

 

[andromache]

Props to both Adam and Jason for being able to keep their PERFORMANCES strong even when their jumps get away from them. Their commitment to their choreography and interpretation never fails to amaze me. Both of them have really sublime LPs. I find Adam's interpretation stronger, but that balances out with Jason's strengths in skating and transitions. But I think Adam's connection to his music and choreography is the best in the world. Sure, there's some "posing" but it honestly suits the music so welllll that it's brilliant. Let's not forget that all-time great Evgeni Plushenko had a lot of posing in his programs too, and it didn't mean he was a weak performer. But IMO, Adam's attention to detail is stronger; he doesn't rely on star power and charisma like Plushenko did.

 

[karne]

Happy for Max getting a new program! And maybe a new costume as well?

Oh, I am sure there will be a new costume. I'm hoping for something with red.

topic: I'm dying to say something about this: Mrs. P your posts from time to time make the thread bold even after I read all the new posts

Oh, I'm glad I'm not the only one this happens to.

 

[eta]

Oh, I am sure there will be a new costume. I'm hoping for something with red.



Oh, I'm glad I'm not the only one this happens to.

Do you know if Max picks his own costumes? From what I see they are usually quite plain but if he likes them that way I have nothing against his choices - whatever helps him skate better - but I do wish there are more colors at least...

 

[karne]

Do you know if Max picks his own costumes? From what I see they are usually quite plain but if he likes them that way I have nothing against his choices - whatever helps him skate better - but I do wish there are more colors at least...

Yeah, I think he has the controlling hand in them generally. There's the funny story of the WSS shirt originally having lots of stones all over and it and Max sitting in his hotel room the night before the free skate at his first comp of the season pulling them all off

 

[mrrice]

Excuse me? The 4CC team hasn't been picked yet and there is one you are only too happy to throw on the garbage heap who will undoubtedly want to have his say.

Really, Who? I'm just kidding. I still can't figure out why Max doesn't receive more hype and support from "Some" fans in the US. He's fast as lightening, and one of the nicest and most "Unpretentious" skaters in the world. Plus, he's....... What more could you ask for.

 

[eta]

Yeah, I think he has the controlling hand in them generally. There's the funny story of the WSS shirt originally having lots of stones all over and it and Max sitting in his hotel room the night before the free skate at his first comp of the season pulling them all off

I look forward to seeing his new costume and program at nationals

 

[frida80]

Excuse me? The 4CC team hasn't been picked yet and there is one you are only too happy to throw on the garbage heap who will undoubtedly want to have his say.

Huh?

 

[Mrs. P]

That's nice to say, Mrs P, but he can't do that. He has to worry about it. The USFS showed that all it takes is for him to double one Salchow and blam, they'll smack him in the kneecaps and shove someone else above him. He doesn't get the free passes Nathan and Adam get. Adam can stand around posing and waggling his fingers - but that's great artistry! If Max has a pause, meanwhile - "EEEEEEEEEEW HE'S SO TERRIBLE WHO CARES IF HE'S LANDING QUADS". Nathan can do little more than stroke from jump to jump for four and a half minutes and "wow! isn't he great! NEW KING NEW KING NEW KING". If Max takes out even so much as one turn of choreography "UGGGGGGGGGH HIS PROGRAMS ARE SO EMPTY AND HORRIBLE".

He has to worry about it because he is the one that actually gets punished for "not being artistic". Even when he hits all the jumps it's not good enough for people.

Besides, he wants to worry about it. Not that anyone actually believes that, apparently.

Karne, Max won 2013 Nationals, remember? Forget the shocked reactions or whatever (which I know you'll bring up), but he won it fair and square.

He had no political capital leading up to that event. He did not have a GP event. He finished 8th the previous year. Nobody really expected him to win, especially since he was 4th coming into the free skate.

Why did he win? Because he HIT EVERY ONE OF THOSE JUMPS convincingly in an incredibly backloaded program. Two quads. Six jumps after the half-way mark, including both his 3As, and a 3T-1L-3S. His PCS was 3rd.

He did that at 2016 Nationals as well and honestly, perhaps you are right that perhaps he should have won over Adam, who one could argued benefited from a beneficial 4Z call in the FS (4Z<< not 4Z<) and a high score despite a botched 3Z-3T combo.

On the other hand, the 2016 FS from Max had a few less points than his 2013 program because 1.) He popped his 3S into a 2S. 2.) He didn't have a 3F. Yes I know he gets edge calls on it and it's a great penalt. and 3.) One less triple in the half-way point. His BV in 2013: 85.05 His BV in 2016: 81.74. His TES was about four points less. Just by points alone the 2013 FS (or even if he simply did the 3S in this 2016 FS) would have been enough to beat Adam even with the 4Z< call. The difference was only a little over a point.

My opinion is that had he done what he done at 2013 nationals (and 2013 4CC to an extent) every time from then on out, perhaps he would have gotten the PCS benefit that a lot of quad skaters tend to get and perhaps he would be in a different scenario now. We saw shades of that last season--especially at Worlds -- but that momentum really hasn't carried through to this season.

And I'm not saying that I don't think he wants to improve his artistry-- as I said, I admire him for it--but sometimes when you're playing the competitive game, you have to figure out what will get you there. You might not like Nathans quad-filled, choreo light FS, but for now it seems to be getting him attention from the judges. Max can totally do the same thing -- he just needs to figure out, again, what is the one thing that will make judges (and USFS) take notice. Maybe this bullfighter SP is the ticket -- we shall see at Nationals.

Honestly, I hope that Max does not obsess about "free passes" other skaters get (and I truly don't think he does). He has no control of that, real or perceived, and it takes away valuable energy from doing the things he can control. Max is clearly well-trained and a very determined competitor and again, his scores have been increasing incrementally, so perhaps again, he'll surprise us in a few weeks.