Men OGM Contenders 2018

[karne]

I think Nathan Chen has a fair shot at silver and an outside chance for gold.

You would think the Chen-crowners would have learned this lesson after Helsinki, before which they were already handing him the title...and after which it was boots, boots, boots.

 

[mrrice]

You consider Nathan Chen, the 4C champ in the most competitive 4CC in a long time, and Silver Medalist at the Grand Prix Finale an upset for a medal? Okay then.

After seeing him finish 6th at Worlds......I most certainly do.

 

[Mathman]

You would think the Chen-crowners would have learned this lesson after Helsinki, before which they were already handing him the title...and after which it was boots, boots, boots.

After seeing him finish 6th at Worlds......I most certainly do.

Nathan had a bad skate. Stuff happens.

I think that Nathan has as good a chance as any of the other contenders at skating clean-ish at the Olympics. I think he has the same chance as the others of succumbing to nerves, or not. If Chen skates OK and delivers his technical content, I think that Hanyu is the only one who is clearly favored over Chen. That's provided Hanyu skates well, too.

Points, points, points. Six quads get a lot of them. I can easily see Nathan settling into that ol' quad groove and hitting everything.

Hanyu
Chen
Jin (or Uno) (sentimental choice)
Uno (or Jin)
Fernandez
Chan (I think Patrick might over-reach on the tech and not deliver his best performance as a result. I hope I'm wrong.)
Kolyada? (same)

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

 

[Violet Bliss]

I think Nathan is extremely dangerous. In xeyra's Quadtonite world, it would be Nathan, not Brown, who would outscore Hanyu and possibly win the Gold Medal.

 

[mrrice]

I think Nathan is extremely dangerous. In xeyra's Quadtonite world, it would be Nathan, not Brown, who would outscore Hanyu and possibly win the Gold Medal.

This, I agree with. Nathan is an extremely dangerous skater. He has also looked very good during the summer shows. He is much faster than he appears on TV and if he hits everything, He'll be a threat. Unless Jason gets his quads to fire, as great a performer as he may be, I just can't see him on the podium. We still haven't seen the other big jumper for the US, Max Arron. I think he may have faded from the spotlight after finishing badly at Nationals this year but, he's such a fighter that I can see him coming back with a vengeance.

 

[4everchan]

Nathan had a bad skate. Stuff happens.

I think that Nathan has as good a chance as any of the other contenders at skating clean-ish at the Olympics. I think he has the same chance as the others of succumbing to nerves, or not. If Chen skates OK and delivers his technical content, I think that Hanyu is the only one who is clearly favored over Chen. That's provided Hanyu skates well, too.

Points, points, points. Six quads get a lot of them. I can easily see Nathan settling into that ol' quad groove and hitting everything.

Hanyu
Chen
Jin (or Uno) (sentimental choice)
Uno (or Jin)
Fernandez
Chan (I think Patrick might over-reach on the tech and not deliver his best performance as a result. I hope I'm wrong.)
Kolyada? (same)

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

hehe... maybe you will change your mind come the beginning of the GP season...

I am not sure Patrick is going to add so many quads... he is working on them in practice but he will do like last year.... add elements when/if they are stable. Since adding the 4S, he has landed it more often than not... quite remarkable for a brand new jump....

If my memory is correct : he fell on it at both SC and COC but then landed it at GPF and Nationals. 4cc he fell on it , then landed it at worlds and wtt LP (failed in SP)

so SP : tripled.. 0/1

in LP : 4/7

 

[karne]

We still haven't seen the other big jumper for the US, Max Arron. I think he may have faded from the spotlight after finishing badly at Nationals this year but, he's such a fighter that I can see him coming back with a vengeance.

We saw him jump at the Aerial Challenge today and yesterday. His triple Axel looks better than ever, but more importantly, he did a few really beautiful quad toes. Arsenal updated.

But y'know, apparently last season was enough for people to write him off, but they'll put a skater who's been out with a severe injury for two years on the dark horse list. *miffed*

 

[mrrice]

We saw him jump at the Aerial Challenge today and yesterday. His triple Axel looks better than ever, but more importantly, he did a few really beautiful quad toes. Arsenal updated.

But y'know, apparently last season was enough for people to write him off, but they'll put a skater who's been out with a severe injury for two years on the dark horse list. *miffed*

I will never write off Max Arron. I have seen him thrown under the bus more than once and he just gets back up and keeps fighting. A true role model for the pure power skaters out there. It was unfortunate that he didn't skate well at Nationals last year but, I am very excited to him this season.

 

[Ice Dance]

I see six men in the hunt, and the only reason anyone might discount any of them would be wishful thinking in my opinion.

Hanyu
Shoma
Nathan
Jin
Javier
Patrick

After that, I see one young kid with a quad lutz, two quad sals (and a possible quad flip) . . .
Vincent

One Russian champion with a quad lutz on video & a counted, though not landed one at Worlds, along with a quad toe . . .
Kolyada

A couple young Russians, an Israeli, and a South Korean kid still young enough to get in the fight if they are hungry . . .
Aliev, Samohin, Samarin, Cha

And some gorgeous, experienced skaters that could hold them off with clean performances and strong second marks.
Ten, Brown

I could include the headcases, but there are already enough of them in the list above so might as well stop there.

 

[Mathman]

One factor that I think will play a role is that mens' figure skating at the Olympics does not occur in a vacuum. The expectation is higher, faster, stronger. Plus, the sport itself is somewhat on trial in the sense that it is viewed by a billion people who have no other exposure to skating. This ought to give the advantage to the skater who (a) does the most quads, and (b) does not fall down. Other factors. like who skates the most gracefully, who has the most intricate choreography or transitions, who has the biggest reputation -- maybe these are not so important as they are at stand-alone events for insiders like Worlds.

 

[MaiKatze]

I think the average watch-all-4-years for entertainment viewer doesn't see the difference between triple jumps and quads. Of course, usually you have commentary and they will gush about the quads, but people just don't see the difference on TV, imho. If you're in the arena it's different. When I watched figure skating more casually I could never understand why skater A who skated earlier without a fall was put over skater B that skated later with a fall. The falls are where it's at, for the casual watcher, because you don't have to be an expert to see the mistake.

That said I fell in love with Daisuke Takahashi at Vancouver, as a casual watcher. He fell on his ONLY quad in the long program. But it didn't matter. I was fascinated, and I don't remember a thing about most others. I don't think falling/quads is all there is. Sometimes a skater who doesn't even medal steals the show. (Julia and Mao in Sochi)

 

[Jaana]

The top skaters at GP series = those skaters who make the final and stand on the podium there, have the biggest chance for an Olympic medal, IMO. Of course also a skater not competing there, but with impressive reputation won from competitions like Worlds, Europeans and 4CC, will have a chance at the Olympics.

 

[Eclair]

One factor that I think will play a role is that mens' figure skating at the Olympics does not occur in a vacuum. The expectation is higher, faster, stronger. Plus, the sport itself is somewhat on trial in the sense that it is viewed by a billion people who have no other exposure to skating. This ought to give the advantage to the skater who (a) does the most quads, and (b) does not fall down. Other factors. like who skates the most gracefully, who has the most intricate choreography or transitions, who has the biggest reputation -- maybe these are not so important as they are at stand-alone events for insiders like Worlds.

I do think these things matter for casual viewers just as much as jumps, but what they see as skating gracefully or having intricate choreography doesn't necessarily is how more advanced viewers define those things.

For example I think Yulia's Schindler's list, Boyangs Spiderman or Javi's Chaplin resonates with them more, than e.g. Patrick's Blackbird or Nathan's sp. Showmanship and connecting with the audience is an important trait for casual viewers, while they may not notice SS, speed or transitions.

 

[Tavi...]

tavi : you can say that if you want, some could say the same of jason.

my point is simply that the year that jason did place very close to the podium, after very great clean skates was the year before all the quadster boys arrived... it diminished Jason chances greatly to podium at championships and he is not alone, Patrick hasn't been able to do better than 5th upon his return and he did have 3 quads planned in his FP this year.

I have nothing against Jason, but one thing i don't like is when people throw things like : well he has been 4th in the world.... ... other circumstances... other times.

To be clear, I, personally (and I'm guessing this is true of most Jason fans) would never cite his 4th place finish at 2015 Worlds as a reason he'd do well now; as you say, men's skating has changed significantly in the past two years, and he's at a greater disadvantage technically today than he was two years ago. As far as I know, gmeyers - who did bring it up in this thread - is not a Jason fan at all, but is rather critical of a system that allows Jason to place highly without doing quads.

That said, it really bothers me when people denigrate a skater's achievements by saying - as they frequently do - "well he only achieved that because the field was weak" (or because "he was held up by the judges," as is often the accusation against Patrick and others). In Jason's case, it ignores the fact that he - no one else - placed 4th at Worlds for a reason: because he had the mental strength, skating last with three spots for Boston on the line, to skate very, very well, if not flawlessly. That is why I asked you that question. And I would add that as technically disadvantaged as Jason was at Worlds this year, he showed that same mental strength in the FS, where - given Nathan's boot problems and unexpectedly low placement in the SP - he knew that placing as high as possible was critical for the US to earn 3 spots.

 

[TerpsichoreFS]

Considering the fact that the men won't get a day of rest, and what happened in Sochi (although we'll never know how many of the mistakes were due to fatigue), I wonder what strategy the men will bring on in terms of technical content, especially the ones dabbling with new quads (Hanyu and the Lz, Fernandez and the Lo, Chan and the F (??)).

Should they go for broke in the SP and then go safe in the FS to limit error potential? Should they on the contrary stay safe in the SP in order to not accumulate stress and tiredness towards the FS, where they'd go for broke? In that area, Chen, Uno and Jin, who already have all their quads set (I personally think it's unlikely Uno will go for the Lz), are definitely at an advantage. So are the men who struggle less with stamina, like Uno and Fernandez.

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Considering the fact that the men won't get a day of rest, and what happened in Sochi (although we'll never know how many of the mistakes were due to fatigue), I wonder what strategy the men will bring on in terms of technical content, especially the ones dabbling with new quads (Hanyu and the Lz, Fernandez and the Lo, Chan and the F (??)).

Should they go for broke in the SP and then go safe in the FS to limit error potential? Should they on the contrary stay safe in the SP in order to not accumulate stress and tiredness towards the FS, where they'd go for broke? In that area, Chen, Uno and Jin, who already have all their quads set (I personally think it's unlikely Uno will go for the Lz), are definitely at an advantage. So are the men who struggle less with stamina, like Uno and Fernandez.

Boyang said he'd like to go for the 4Lo again. So he's more on the same list with potentially Yuzu, Javi & Patrick as in not having his quads set. Shoma might also still want to go for the 4S, if not the 4Lz, he has practiced that one as well. And with Nathan, I'm not sure anything is set either, they've been layout-hopping a lot last season, partly very successfully so (4CC).

 

[TerpsichoreFS]

Boyang said he'd like to go for the 4Lo again. So he's more on the same list with potentially Yuzu, Javi & Patrick as in not having his quads set. Shoma might also still want to go for the 4S, if not the 4Lz, he has practiced that one as well. And with Nathan, I'm not sure anything is set either, they've been layout-hopping a lot last season, partly very successfully so (4CC).

Ooooh, interesting! Thank you for the precision.

 

[Tutto]

Considering the fact that the men won't get a day of rest, and what happened in Sochi (although we'll never know how many of the mistakes were due to fatigue), I wonder what strategy the men will bring on in terms of technical content, especially the ones dabbling with new quads (Hanyu and the Lz, Fernandez and the Lo, Chan and the F (??)).

Should they go for broke in the SP and then go safe in the FS to limit error potential? Should they on the contrary stay safe in the SP in order to not accumulate stress and tiredness towards the FS, where they'd go for broke? In that area, Chen, Uno and Jin, who already have all their quads set (I personally think it's unlikely Uno will go for the Lz), are definitely at an advantage. So are the men who struggle less with stamina, like Uno and Fernandez.

Other factors to consider - the 'quadsters' are younger and have an advantage over the 'veterans' stamina wise. On the other hand Hanyu, Chan & Fernandes have Olympic experience unlike Chen, Uno & Jin which would work in their favour. Also lets not forget about the team event. Thats put Fernandes at a distinctive advantage he only has 2 skates to worry about and not 4 like some others.

 

[Interspectator]

Other factors to consider - the 'quadsters' are younger and have an advantage over the 'veterans' stamina wise. On the other hand Hanyu, Chan & Fernandes have Olympic experience unlike Chen, Uno & Jin which would work in their favour. Also lets not forget about the team event. Thats put Fernandes at a distinctive advantage he only has 2 skates to worry about and not 4 like some others.

As far as stamina goes though, Yuzu's stamina has been better than ever last season, to the point where he has successfully put 3 quads in the second half of his free skate. Miles better than what is was in Sochi. On the other hand, I tend to think that the first Olympic experience is in favor of the youngest ones. They do not completely realize the immense pressure of competing yet because they are so young. They have nothing to lose and therefore go all-out. The veterans, though they have more experience, can also have more nerves.

 

[gsyzf]

It's the other way round. Men peak much later than women. The young ones are physically disadvantaged because they do not yet have the stamina and strength compared to the veterans, yet they must out-jump the veterans to have any chance to medal at the Olympics. So they are actually more disadvantaged because they have to attempt layouts they have not yet mastered, while veterans can attempt easier layouts they are more comfortable with since they have better reputation than the youngsters. Veterans are only disadvantaged if they are past their prime, not when they are in their prime. The majority of male newbies don't medal in their first Olympcis and their second olympcis performances are usually better than their first. Only very few men medaled in their first olympics, and that's with the help of many men bombing in those competitions.

With ladies, it's the opposite. Most girls peak early, usually before puberty. Most female medalists medal in their first Olympics and their second Olympics performances are usually worse than their first. So newbie girls out jump veteran ladies quite often at the Olympics. (So I believe the chance of Zagitova beating Medvedeva at the Olympics is not low since Zagitova is technically superior than Medvedeva and she attempts harder layout than Medvedeva. The only question is whether she will continue to improve and remain consistent and establish herself as a medal favorite going into the Olympics by the time Olympics comes. Since she is young and her body hasn't changed yet, I think the chance of her improving and remaining consistent is quite high in the Olympics season.)