2018 Olympic Season: Ice Dance

[Ice Dance]

Penny's knee is recovered thankfully. Unfortunately they have to languish in Challengers and smaller events due to the disgusting unfairness of being shut out of the GPs. So the Toronto Czechs get an invitation to Russia, but no British couple does? Fear & Gibson finished higher at Euros and Worlds than other couples competing in the GPs. But still GB doesn't have an assignment. How is that remotely fair? FS is a Sport that prides itself on the principles of Equality. But in truth, it is far from that.

OK, so I'm not certain if you are really asking how this is possible or simply arguing that it is unfair.

I'm going to answer the former first:

There are only four ways to earn a guaranteed spot on the GP. 1. You can finish top-ten at the previous Worlds. 2. You can finish top-24 on the previous season's SB list. 3. You can finish top-24 on the World ranking list. 4. You are a comeback skater who finished top 6 at Worlds during your last competitive season and are returning to competition.

Coomes & Buckland do not meet any of this criteria so they had no guaranteed spots this season. No British team met any of this criteria so they did not have any guaranteed spots this season.

Coomes & Buckland have met the requirements in order to be considered for an invite onto the GP. They could have been considered for an invitation as return skaters provided they completed the necessary paperwork/statement that they would be ready to compete and that their federation submitted it by the required deadline. (Don't know if the British Fed did this or not). At this point, however, C&B have definitely qualified to be added to the replacement list by winning a Challenger event. However, neither of these methods ensure a guaranteed spot. They only make C&B an option for host countries who wish to invite them.

You are incorrect about Fear & Gibson. They are 8 spots below Kuzmichova & Sinicyn on the Season's Best list, and that is the list from which non-guaranteed spots are selected. All the teams on the GP are ranked above Fear and Gibson on last year's SB list.



Now . . . about whether the assignment of GP spots is fair. No, they are not fair. They are purposely not fair. They benefit host countries.

First, host countries have the right to invite three of their own athletes for each discipline. Those athletes do not have to meet minimum scores. They do not have to be on any SB or World Standings lists. Nada. Countries are "encouraged" to invite athletes with minimum scores, but they don't have to.

Next athletes who meet the required guaranteed spots rule are invited. Those rules are followed. Those athletes get the spots unless their own federation refuses to support them. This part is the most fair aspect of GP invitations. If you want to be treated fairly, you need to meet this criteria.

Finally, the remaining host spot invitations are handed out. At this point, GP hosts have the right to select the athletes they want. Sometimes GP hosts pick from the top of the SB list & fill all their extra spots. This is what happened last year in dance.

It is not what happened this year.

Because GP hosts don't have to do this. They can politic for spots. They can barter with other hosts. They can purposely select lower-scoring athletes in order to improve the odds for their own athletes' success. They can select athletes that live & train close to the event in order to not purchase expensive plane tickets. (It's a self-rewarding cycle too because athletes with GP invitations have a better chance to earn more points to increase their World Standings for the following season and meet the guaranteed criteria for the following season).

So . . . this season a lot of top athletes on the SB list were skipped. As far as I know, we have no proof that the British Fed submitted the necessary return paperwork on time for Coomes & Buckland, though it sounds like C&B believe they did. If so, C&B were skipped. They would have had the highest score of those without a guaranteed spot; but they were far from the only team skipped. The Parsons were skipped for a second event. Fournier-Beaudry & Sorenson were skipped. McNamara & Carpenter, Nazarova & Nikitin, Lorenz & Polizoakis, Popova & Mozgov, Min & Gamelin, Jakushina & Nevskiy, Mansour & Ceska, Smart & Diaz, and Koch & Nuchtern could all have received invitations or second invitations before Kuzmichova & Sinycin.

Why didn't they? Because Russia thought they were going to have to invite Evdokimova & Bazin to Rostelecom and they wanted to invite a team that would lose to E&B. K&S were ranked below them.

What other countries did this? It's hard to know. But Canada for sure. Canada invited Smart & Diaz, and S&D were too far down to make the invite list without skipping other teams completely. (The irony here is that Smart & Diaz defeated Soucisse & Firus anyway).

Who benefited the most in dance? France. Because Lauriault & Le Gac had only one guaranteed non-host spot and Abachkina & Thauron had none. But L&LG received a second non-host spot and Abachkina & Thauron received one along with a host spot. Why did France get those spots? Because France had spots to trade, and very likely another host country had athletes (from any discipline) that they wanted invited to France.

One of which had to be China because Abachkina & Thauron were invited there. It's win/win for China. Their teams have a better chance of defeating A&T than a higher ranked team, and a Chinese athlete (Peng & Jin or Zijun Li?) likely received a spot in France.

So . . . we now have a 10 team replacement list with a whole bunch of dance teams that are likely better and more competitive than some of the teams on the GP. But no ranked order. If anyone drops out, host countries still get to decide which team they want to invite off the list.

It's not fair. And it hurt athletes from a lot of countries: Great Britain, the U.S., Denmark, Ukraine, Russia, Korea, etc. Not just non-host countries. Not just small countries. Not just big countries. Not just European, North American, or Asian countries.

 

[La Rhumba]

Ice Dance Thank you so much for your brilliantly detailed reply. Much appreciated. :clapper:

Can I ask about this specifically, as I'm very confused how it can be the case:

You are incorrect about Fear & Gibson. They are 8 spots below Kuzmichova & Sinicyn on the Season's Best list

Fear & Gibson were 22nd at Worlds last year, ahead of K&S, and won silver at Lombardia CS. How is the SB List or Top 24 World Ranking List compiled if it puts K&S 8 places ahead of F&G?

ETA: Just checked K/Z were 26th at Worlds.
Particularly annoying the FD cut off point was 20 and not 24, as it used to be, as Fear/Gibson had a very strong FD and would undoubtedly have moved into the top 20 had they been able to skate. They moved up 4 places at Europeans after the FD.

 

[SnowWhite]

Ice Dance Thank you so much for your brilliantly detailed reply. Much appreciated. :clapper:

Can I ask about this specifically, as I'm very confused how it can be the case:


Fear & Gibson were 22nd at Worlds last year, ahead of K&S, and won silver at Lombardia CS. How is the SB List or Top 24 World Ranking List compiled if it puts K&S 8 places ahead of F&G?

ETA: Just checked K/Z were 26th at Worlds.
Particularly annoying the FD cut off point was 20 and not 24, as it used to be, as Fear/Gibson had a very strong FD and would undoubtedly have moved into the top 20 had they been able to skate. They moved up 4 places at Europeans after the FD.

The seasons best list isn't just from Worlds. It's a list of each team by their highest score of the season. Scores from the GP series, the Challenger series, 4CCs, Euros, Worlds and WTT. And the score isn't going to count if you miss the free. Fear/Gibson got theirs from Lombardia and K/S got theirs from the JGP. It was just over 3 points higher.

 

[Ice Dance]

Ice Dance Thank you so much for your brilliantly detailed reply. Much appreciated. :clapper:

Can I ask about this specifically, as I'm very confused how it can be the case:


Fear & Gibson were 22nd at Worlds last year, ahead of K&S, and won silver at Lombardia CS. How is the SB List or Top 24 World Ranking List compiled if it puts K&S 8 places ahead of F&G?

ETA: Just checked K/Z were 26th at Worlds.
Particularly annoying the FD cut off point was 20 and not 24, as it used to be, as Fear/Gibson had a very strong FD and would undoubtedly have moved into the top 20 had they been able to skate. They moved up 4 places at Europeans after the FD.

Sure, the Season's Best list is composed of athletes' highest scores throughout the season at any of the following events: Worlds, Europeans, 4 Continents, any Grand Prix event, any Challenger event, Junior Worlds, or any Junior Grand Prix event. Worlds' placements only matter for Grand Prix invitations if a team finishes top 10.

There is good reason for this. A lot of the best dance teams in the World aren't able to compete at Worlds. Many U.S. and Russian teams, in particular, are more competitive than teams from other countries but not top three at home. And many high-level dance teams remain in the junior ranks (gaining experience & World Standings points) but move up the next season. The Grand Prix is open to all of these teams.

Fear & Gibson's Season's Best score from last season was 139.60, which they earned at Lombardia Trophy on the Challenger Series. Kuzmichova & Sinycin's SB score from last season was 142.60, which they earned at the Czech JGP. The highest SB score for a dance team that did not receive a second non-host invitation on the GP belonged to the Parsons, 164.83 from Junior Worlds. The highest SB score for a dance team that did not receive a single non-host invitation was Popova & Mozgov's 155.22 from Golden Spin. The highest SB score for a dance team that did not receive any invitation was Min & Gamelin's 151.35 from the Tallinn Trophy Challenger event. Fear and Gibson's SB score was the 53rd highest SB from last season.

Here is the Season's Best list from the end of last season:
http://www.isuresults.com/isujsstat/sb2016-17/sbtsdto.htm

As it is, teams from smaller countries actually have an advantage when it comes to qualifying for World Standing points. They get invited to Europeans & Worlds, which are worth more points on the World Standings list. So this was an advantage for Fear & Gibson. However, F&G were a brand new team last season. The World Standing list reflects the top 24 teams over a period of three years. F&G made headway in their world standing ranking but currently they are 54th:
http://www.isuresults.com/ws/ws/wsdance.htm

Fear & Gibson were not one of the 24 most competitive senior dance teams last season. Neither were Kuzmichova & Sinycin.

 

[Ice Dance]

Ice Dance
Particularly annoying the FD cut off point was 20 and not 24, as it used to be, as Fear/Gibson had a very strong FD and would undoubtedly have moved into the top 20 had they been able to skate.

There is no evidence that Fear & Gibson would have moved up. None of the teams they defeated at Europeans were below them after the SD at Worlds. In fact, based on Muramoto & Reed's FD scores throughout the season, there's a good chance that M&R would have passed F&G. But that's all speculation. You have to meet the requirements at the time of the competition and even a top 20 skate would not have gotten F&G onto the GP. There were mistakes in the FD and F&G might have moved up. Or they might have made mistakes themselves and gone down.

 

[La Rhumba]

Thank you Ice Dance for all the facts, figures, links and info. :agree:

Ofcourse, the smaller nation's skaters are only "invited" to participate in Euros & World's if they get the Qualification score. I think K&S benefited hugely from competing at the Russian GP by gaining more experience and exposure at the top level, and acquired a new PB at an event with generous scoring. Those couples with SBs gained at Tallinn Trophy were also at an advantage. I watched that event, and the high scoring was very noticeable! It seems to me it's not an entirely fair system, but I cannot offer an alternative. As you say, if it was just World Placements, that disregards high level couples who cannot get into their nation's Worlds Team due to strength in depth. I cannot lose the bee in my bonnet about Coomes/Buckland's GP exclusion though. That seems particularly harsh, on the basis of missing automatic qualification by one placement - finishing 7th instead of 6th at 2016 Worlds. I do think the ISU could've assigned them one GP as dispensation for a year out with injury. Other sports like Tennis do this, when the athlete returns, their ranking is protected for a period of time. I doubt anyone would've complained and the ISU would've looked like a compassionate and fair sporting body if they had done so.

 

[Ice Dance]

I do think the ISU could've assigned them one GP as dispensation for a year out with injury. Other sports like Tennis do this, when the athlete returns, their ranking is protected for a period of time. I doubt anyone would've complained and the ISU would've looked like a compassionate and fair sporting body if they had done so.

The ISU doesn't assign GP spots. They set the criteria, of course, and we can argue for different criteria. (For example, arguing that "return skaters" should be guaranteed at least one spot).

But it isn't the ISU that declined to invite Coomes & Buckland. It isn't even clear if the host countries declined to invite them. Perhaps they did. It's quite odd. Usually, high-level teams are at least attractive to some countries. NHK usually picks the high dance teams. (They invited Coomes & Buckland off the replacement list after C&B missed the 2015 Worlds). China rarely cares much about protecting its dance teams. Coomes & Buckland have Shpilband, which is a very common factor for teams getting into SA. The Brits train in North America so the expense of inviting them isn't extraordinary for SA or SC. Coomes & Buckland are a European team, which often helps with getting into France.

I still think it is possible that someone else dropped the ball. That Penny & Nick weren't far enough into the recovery process for someone to sign off on them being back this season. Or the British Federation missed the deadline. Or someone assumed C&B could get an invite without applying as return skaters (in which case, they would have had no score and not been on the list at all for selection).

In order for C&B not to be selected, they were either not on the list at all or had to be skipped by every single GP host.

Is it possible they were?

Yep. Every single host country had something to lose by inviting Coomes & Buckland. The Chinese & Japanese champions will finish a spot higher without C&B in the field. The bottom Canadian, Russian, French, and U.S. host teams will likely finish a spot higher without C&B in the field. And, ultimately, you never know with injuries. A shattered knee could very easily render a dance team uncompetitive.

But Coomes & Buckland are competitive. They do look ready. They certainly deserve spots on the GP based on their ability level (though they are not the only ones, and I hope no one calls foul if another top team gets in with a replacement spot because those top teams didn't deserve to be skipped either). It's impossible to know how C&B stack up against the GP medal hopefuls right now. No one at the top--not even the top Russian, American, or French junior teams moving up--was invited to Nebelhorn. Only the teams trying to earn an Olympic spot and U.S. & Canadian teams hovering around the World minimum TES. With that kind of field, it's hard to know where C&B stand compared to the top ten.

The important thing is that Coomes & Buckland are back and look ready.

They are scheduled to go up against Bobrova & Soloviev at the Warsaw Cup. And if they want another event before Europeans, Golden Spin usually snags several competitive teams that miss the GPF. And C&B will have Europeans (in Russia, which isn't the best place to go head-to-head against Stepanova & Bukin for the first time, but is probably where it will happen).

 

[bramweld]

Well, my top five as of now;

1. V/M
2. P/C
3. H/D
4. W/P
5. Shibs

Everybody else, the also-rans. However, if either H/D or W/P mess up their twizzles C/L and B/S and maybe Ch/Ba will gladly step up. I didn't really get what Ch/Ba were selling today. Maybe Imagine will win me over. B/S were too nervous today, as if they knew the ridiculous marks in Russia were just that ridiculous. Oh well.

 

[Anyasnake]

Well, my top five as of now;

1. V/M
2. P/C
3. H/D
4. W/P
5. Shibs

If we speak strictly on SDs, I disagree UNTIL WeaPo compete out of Canada. I think Shibs with their PCS, if they manage to get levels, are 3rd. H/D can be EXCELLENT with the technique so they'll challenge big time.
We'll have to wait until the French GP.
But both B/S and C/B have great PCS. The levels today were bad though. They'll work on that.
Still too early anyway

 

[bramweld]

Yes, 3, 4,5 are somewhat fluid but I think these are the characters. I just think we could have a Gadbois sweep of the podium, but let me not get more ahead of myself.

 

[Anyasnake]

Yes, 3, 4,5 are somewhat fluid but I think these are the characters. I just think we could have a Gadbois sweep of the podium, but let me not get more ahead of myself.

This is very possible :agree: But Ice is sooo slippery

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

So far the Shibs have my favorite SD in terms of character and choreography. I recognize V/M's objective awesomeness and technical ability. I like P/C's SD a lot despite me not liking the music choice and artificial addition of the rhumba beat. H/D have a fantastic SD but the middle section seems removed for the first and third section. I will get back to my thoughts on the FD after I watch C/B's FD tomorrow, but so far H/D have my favorite FD in terms of choreography.

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

I posted this in the Russian Ice Dance thread and I thought I'd post it here since this is a general ice dance discussion. I was just looking at the rest of the GP field, and I think B/S are totally out of the GPF now. With P/C, V/M, and the Shibs winning a GP, that most likely only leaves three spots. Weaver/Poje, Chock/Bates, and Hubbell/Donohue have all posted higher scores than B/S to win a tie break. If Hubbell/Donohue end up with two bronzes allowing B/S to be higher in the GP standings, that means Cappellini/Lanotte most likely end up with two silvers and C/L replaces H/D on the list of teams ahead of B/S. No wonder B/S looked super disappointed in the KnC outside of losing the silver. They knew they just lost their trip to the GPF.

 

[bramweld]

I posted this in the Russian Ice Dance thread and I thought I'd post it here since this is a general ice dance discussion. I was just looking at the rest of the GP field, and I think B/S are totally out of the GPF now. With P/C, V/M, and the Shibs winning a GP, that most likely only leaves three spots. Weaver/Poje, Chock/Bates, and Hubbell/Donohue have all posted higher scores than B/S to win a tie break. If Hubbell/Donohue end up with two bronzes allowing B/S to be higher in the GP standings, that means Cappellini/Lanotte most likely end up with two silvers and C/L replaces H/D on the list of teams ahead of B/S. No wonder B/S looked super disappointed in the KnC outside of losing the silver. They knew they just lost their trip to the GPF.

Agreed. But honestly I don't think Zhulin gave them worthy programs this season. It's either that or they're just out of their depth. The rest of the ice dance field has just progressed well beyond what Russia has to offer right now. I am looking forward to what they will do in the next Olympic cycle. I doubt they will medal in 2018. If they get into the top five that should be considered a success for them.

 

[Roast Toast]

So, we've now seen all the programs of the top US teams. C/B had a fairly rough outing, especially in the SD, but that might have more to do with the fact that they didn't bag a B event medal beforehand like most other teams rather than with their actual programs. Is this the season where H/D move up?

 

[Astrid56]

Despite the naysayers' tone of doom and gloom, C/B did very well in this event. They both have very strong, refreshing programs _ the SD apparently lost a lot in terms of 'levels' but the scores are better than most of the winning outings in the 'B' event. For their SD, they need to perform it confidently ... with the speed they were known for, and with better ice-coverage. Also ditching that skirt's tail replacing it with a more fun, freeing and flirty skirt will enhance the look and feel of the program. Their FD is excellent - practices will smoothen some parts making their expressions and movements more nuanced. I like the purposeful telling of their theme/message: Kudos to Christopher Dean for his wonderful choreography and vision.

 

[gmyers]

I posted this in the Russian Ice Dance thread and I thought I'd post it here since this is a general ice dance discussion. I was just looking at the rest of the GP field, and I think B/S are totally out of the GPF now. With P/C, V/M, and the Shibs winning a GP, that most likely only leaves three spots. Weaver/Poje, Chock/Bates, and Hubbell/Donohue have all posted higher scores than B/S to win a tie break. If Hubbell/Donohue end up with two bronzes allowing B/S to be higher in the GP standings, that means Cappellini/Lanotte most likely end up with two silvers and C/L replaces H/D on the list of teams ahead of B/S. No wonder B/S looked super disappointed in the KnC outside of losing the silver. They knew they just lost their trip to the GPF.

I am very happy. They have the worst programs of the season and the worst coach in ice dance. They need to change programs and hopefully coaches. It’s only November 4. Several teams in Olympic season history weren’t even competing in November. They have enough time to change coaches and programs.

 

[NicoleJ96B]

2017/18 Ice Dance: Halfway into the season

Hi everyone!

All the Ice Dance talk seems to be scattered amongst threads at the moment so I thought we could get some discussion going here, now that we are half way through the Grand Prix season and every top team has competed with their Olympic material. I'm going to post my current rankings (not based on preference, but where I think they are stacking up points/momentum wise, then my Grand Prix Final predictions! Feel free to do the same and share thoughts. Although some of the dance material this year has been disappointing, the battle for Gold and Silver, then Bronze is hotter than ever.

(This rankings are just my idea of where the teams are currently standing, and in no way reflect my preferences.)

Current standings:
1 & 2: Virtue/Moir and Papadakis/Cizeron: Even though P/C broke 200 first, I still they are essentially even at this point in time. I'll spilt between the two at GPF after we see them compete on the same ice, which I think is going to be hugely consequential.
3: Hubbell and Donohue.
4: Maia and Alex Shibutani.
5. Weaver and Poje.
6. Bobrova and Soloviev.
The rest of the field fighting to push through: Cappellini and Lanotte, Coomes and Buckland, Stepanova, Buikin and Chock and Bates.
Non- factors: Gilles and Poirier, Hawayek and Baker, Smart and Diaz etc etc.

Grand Prix Final Predictions:
1. Papadakis and Cizeron
2. Virtue and Moir
3. Shibutani and Shibutani
4. Weaver and Pojer
5. Hubbell and Donohue
6. Bobrova and Soloviev

Alternates:
7. Chock and Bates
8. Cappellini and Lanotte.

 

[sarama]

This season ice dance scoring seems more random than usual. I don't know if things will make sense as the season goes on, but I truly hope so.

Just an example: Weaver and Poje. I loved their SD and they deserved every point there, BUT a FD (re)put together in 2 weeks, understandably sloppy, can't be their PB (I don't consider WTT scores accountable).

 

[slider11]

Hi everyone!

All the Ice Dance talk seems to be scattered amongst threads at the moment so I thought we could get some discussion going here, now that we are half way through the Grand Prix season and every top team has competed with their Olympic material. I'm going to post my current rankings (not based on preference, but where I think they are stacking up points/momentum wise, then my Grand Prix Final predictions! Feel free to do the same and share thoughts. Although some of the dance material this year has been disappointing, the battle for Gold and Silver, then Bronze is hotter than ever.

(This rankings are just my idea of where the teams are currently standing, and in no way reflect my preferences.)

Current standings:
1 & 2: Virtue/Moir and Papadakis/Cizeron: Even though P/C broke 200 first, I still they are essentially even at this point in time. I'll spilt between the two at GPF after we see them compete on the same ice, which I think is going to be hugely consequential.
3: Hubbell and Donohue.
4: Maia and Alex Shibutani.
5. Weaver and Poje.
6. Bobrova and Soloviev.
The rest of the field fighting to push through: Cappellini and Lanotte, Coomes and Buckland, Stepanova, Buikin and Chock and Bates.
Non- factors: Gilles and Poirier, Hawayek and Baker, Smart and Diaz etc etc.

Grand Prix Final Predictions:
1. Papadakis and Cizeron
2. Virtue and Moir
3. Shibutani and Shibutani
4. Weaver and Pojer
5. Hubbell and Donohue
6. Bobrova and Soloviev

Alternates:
7. Chock and Bates
8. Cappellini and Lanotte.

Totally agree with the GpF line up. I think the real test will come with the Olympics and each team pushing to the max which can ultimately lead to fantastic programs and mistakes. My prediction is that the podium at the Olympics will be different than that at the GPFs.