- Joined
- Aug 25, 2017
Don't remind me about Eva Novakhova ... 
I'm her fanfest parent and it makes me so sad...
I'm her fanfest parent and it makes me so sad...
2017-18 State of Russian Ladies skating
- Thread starter moriel
- Start date
I agree that they will very likely let Konstantinova move up. Feditchkina will want to move up and they probably won’t prevent her. They didn’t prevent Serafima after the extra year in juniors, when she still struggled.Considering this seasons results, I don’t think Feditchkina has much chance of getting JGP and will not probably get even senior GP unless a few ladies quits after this season, for example if Medvedeva or Zagitova won the Olympics, she may want to take a season off or retire, Leonova may retire, Pogorilaya may have still back problems and suddenly there is space in seniors.
Samodurova and Panenkova and Gubanova it will depend a lot on their results from junior worlds, if either of them manages to go. The winner would definitely be allowed to move to seniors. If they don’t go, will they have enough points for world ranking? If I recall correctly, the points are earned from up to two JGP/JGPF/GP/GPF and from up to two B competitions, and from Europeans/worlds. So if they don’t have enough points to get to seniors, it may be better to spend an extra year in junior, get points for JGP, do also senior B competitions and the following season they would have enough points to get GP events. Otherwise if they move to seniors, all they can earn is points from two B competitions (it is unlikely that they would be sent to Europeans/worlds).
I think Guliakova definitely has a chance to get JGP spot. She is stronger than those three newbies you were hoping may get spots.
I hope she comes back to more competitive skating, however given the competition in Russia these days, chances are very slim.
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2017
About Gulyakova, you'll notice that none of Emelyanova, Guseva, and Kostyuk got spots in my predictions.
And Daria, I'm not sure about WR, but she has enough points SB-wise to have a real shot at a GP (196.55, which is higher than someone like Mirai Nagasu has EVER gotten internationally. Love ya Mirai but sorry, it's true)
Sofia's SB is 192 I think. Which is good as well but Mirai, Yura Matsuda, Yuna Shiraiwa, and Rika Kihira are all ahead of her. Daria is currently 21st on the SB list but 3 ahead of her (Trusova, Tarakanova, and Kostornaya) aren't senior eligible, so she's really 18th. Plus, Kostner might retire and Radionova's name probably won't be submitted seeing her 10th place finish at nationals, so that's like 16th, with Samdourova in what's really now 21st.
Fedichkina and Gubanova are in the same boat as each other. They'll probably both be allowed to move up but considering that right now, they are 40th and 65th on the SB list, respectively, they don't have the same shots are Panenkova and Samodurova. Interestingly, Gulyakova is is ahead of them both at 38th.
Food for thought...
Her SB may be great but she needs points and she doesn’t have enough. Unless she earns the points, she would have to keep relying on the chance that she may get the host spot... not everything is done according to SB.
Radionova’s name not being submitted? Don’t kid yourself. She is the 5th Russian senior lady throughout the season and has been very comparable with number 3 and 4 ( Sotskova and Tsurskaya). Similar placements and scores. Russian federation never looks at one competition,they take into account a number of competitions. If it was only one competition that matters, Tuktamysheva and Leonova would not have GP for last few seasons.
- Joined
- Nov 30, 2016
Not sure why you're dismissing SB. Everyone in the top 24 SB at the end of the season is guaranteed one GP assignment, regardless of their World Standing. Maybe you're confused because the top 24 in World Standing are also guaranteed one assignment. At the moment Daria is 21st on the SB. If she's still in that spot at the end of a season, she's guaranteed one GP assignment, no matter what her WS is.
Well, we will see. I think unless she does well at junior worlds, she is not going to be allowed to seniors, but if you insist, we will have to wait and see. I will remind you at the beginning of the next season...
- Joined
- Nov 30, 2016
Well, we will see. I think unless she does well at junior worlds, she is not going to be allowed to seniors, but if you insist, we will have to wait and see. I will remind you at the beginning of the next season...
I'm not saying whether or not Russia will let her move up, but you kept implying she wouldn't get a GP without it being a host pick, which isn't correct.
She wouldn’t. That’s the thing. Russia will not want their skaters lose chance to get to GPF, so at some stage they will have to limit the number of skaters they will submit. (E.g. Rather than having for example 16 skaters where each of them has one event, they will want to have 8 skaters with two events each). There is max 18 spots per country, and that number is not guaranteed- more realistically Russia will have around 16 spots because some countries like to protect their skaters. So Russia will have to choose who will be submitted. There is definitely 8 skaters in queue before Panenkova, so she will be the one who will lose, even if in theory she would be eligible for one spot, if she got submitted. When I said she would get a host pick, I was more thinking about being at hand if someone else had to withdraw, like it happens from time to time. Mikhailova got lucky this season even though the federation originally didn’t plan for her to have GP, but suddenly there was one spare...
- Joined
- Mar 16, 2017
I think only 6 senior ladies that surely will compete in next GP season
Med
Zagi
Tsurskaya
Liza
Sotskova
Radionova
So there will be other skaters filling places for Pogorilaya/Leonova which not sure will continue or not. Which could be new faces in senior or likes of Serafima, Mikhailova. If there is spot to fill Panenkova will move up for sure. Fedichkina won't do JGP and GP only senior B. Konstantinova will get GP probably even if only 1 by being host pick (which should've been done last year). Gubanova and Samodurova is hard to say. I really hope Gubanova can go to JW am. Guliakova will stay in juniors since this season is her JGP debut and she's not so successfull... Maybe doing some senior B too.
Med
Zagi
Tsurskaya
Liza
Sotskova
Radionova
So there will be other skaters filling places for Pogorilaya/Leonova which not sure will continue or not. Which could be new faces in senior or likes of Serafima, Mikhailova. If there is spot to fill Panenkova will move up for sure. Fedichkina won't do JGP and GP only senior B. Konstantinova will get GP probably even if only 1 by being host pick (which should've been done last year). Gubanova and Samodurova is hard to say. I really hope Gubanova can go to JW am. Guliakova will stay in juniors since this season is her JGP debut and she's not so successfull... Maybe doing some senior B too.
Stanislava has 2 spots in the bag. Is 16th in Seasons Best list and no way will be overtaken by 9 skaters below her by the end of the season. Is also 6th best of age eligible Russian skaters, ahead of Elizaveta. After that it gets interesting.
Am pretty certain Russia and Japan will both have 18 spots next season. You need at least 36 skaters to fill the 72 spots and in practice more like 40 because of those with 1 spot. Hence as 28 out of the top 40 skaters are either Japanese or Russian it's going to take an almighty effort to bypass them. Also Russia and Japan will do a 'you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours' when it comes to choosing skaters. Also Russia already had 17 spots this season, only Skate Canada with 2, and Stanislava missing out where you would normally have expected her to get one, plus sounds like her name was never even put forward.
Hence assuming 4 spots left, you've got Daria who's 21st in Seasons Best, plus Anna P, plus anybody else to consider. Anna is going to struggle a bit, she's not certain even of a spot via her world standing but may get a generous invite due to her big name, plus I would say the Host Pick has to be reserved for her for her to get 2 spots, the only other way would be to sneak in the Top 24 World Standings and get a generous invite.
Daria should be OK for 2 everything else being even, she'd need 4 skaters to overtake her before the end of the season, and the only candidates I can see are Rika Kihira, and whoever the Americans send to the championships - Mirai Nagasu, Karen Chen, Ashley Wagner and Mariah Bell are all below her. Also somebody like Anastasiia G if she can get the 3rd spot at JWs and score heavily there in which case it would get very complicated.
Overall I would expect Daria to get 2 (being in the Top 24 gets you 2 spots in practice), and Anna 2 if she skates next year. If not, or someone retires or has a year off, or Daria drops out of the Top 24 then someone else like Anastasiia G might get the host pick, plus skaters like Serafima and Sofia may also get a spot.
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- Feb 4, 2017
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:eeking:
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- Apr 9, 2016
Daria has posted that she is moving to seniors, so she (or rather Eteri) must be expecting GP spots.
Well, didn’t Konstantinova think that she would be moving to seniors? And then she wasn’t allowed to...
- Joined
- Apr 9, 2016
Well, Konstantinova didn't have Eteri as her coach... But of course anything can happen.
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- Mar 16, 2017
Stasya back then was not successful like Daria in JGP, she didnt even make JGPF and then bomb in JWC. She would not get any GP since she's not in top 24 SB that season (but she is in top 24 this season). Daria is in top 24 in SB and guaranteed 1 GP already next season if she moves up
