Campbell's -- and the winner is...

[Mathman]

Here are the numbers for all the Campbell's participants based on last season's Senior events:

Mao Asada
CoC: SP 62.92, FS 113.68
TEB: SP 63.96, FS 118.46
GPF: SP 64.38, FS 125.24

Miki Ando
COR: SP 60.76, FS 111.54
NHK: SP 54.56, FS 99.78
GPF: SP 56.7, FS 100.60
Torino: SP 56.00, FS 84.20

Mai Asada
4CC: SP 52.13, FS 89.52 (her only Senior international)

Sasha Cohen
TEB: SP 60.96, FS 114.16
Torino: SP 66.73, FS 116.63
Worlds: SP 66.62, FS 114.67

Kimmie Meissner
TEB: SP 44.92, FS 110.80
NHK: SP 56.10, FS 96.08
Torino: SP 59.40, FS 103.90
Worlds: SP 60.17, FS 129.70

Emily Hughes
SA: SP 38.74, FS 88.04
CoR: SP 46.56, FS 79.20
Torino: SP 57.08, FS 103.79
Worlds: SP 54.23, FS 104.84

It's pretty plain that Mai Asada is the weak link on the Japanese side. Emily Hughes is the weakest of the US ladies, but she is stronger than Mai.

Both Sasha and Miki are question marks. As long as Sasha does a SP, she has to be considered a strength (maybe, depending on whether she is doing any training). Miki had an up-and-down season last year. She gave one solid performance, at Cup of Russia, but she bombed at Japanese Nationals and in Torino. It all depends which Miki shows up this season.

Kimmie showed a steady pattern of improvement last season and from reports has been working very hard on her new programs this summer. She and Mao will most likely skate long programs. The question is whether there will be two sets of LPs and just one SP, or two SPs and one LP.

Chuckm posted these numbers on the Kimmie thread. Since that thread has meandered into a Campbell's preview, let's start a new thread on that topic.

So, by the numbers, which ladies team will win? Giving each skater her average from last year, here are the two scenarios.

2 LPs and 1 SP

Sasha SP 64.77
Meissner LP 110.12
Hughes LP 93.96

USA total 268.85

Mai Asada SP 52.13
Mao Asada LP 119.13
Ando LP 99.03

Japan total 270.29

Japan wins!

2 SPs and 1 LP

Sasha SP 64.77
Meissner LP 110.12
Hughes LP 49.15

USA total 224.04

Mai SP 52.13
Mao LP 119.13
Ando SP 57.00

Japan total 228.26

Japan wins again!

 

[Spun Silver]

Ugh. All of a sudden I feel patriotic!

I expect Sasha will be a little under her game and Kimmie and Emily will beat their averages, but somebody on the Japanese side is going to have to mess up.

I'm really rooting for Mao and Miki this year, so I'm afraid it's going to have to be Mai. Sorry, Mai!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The numbers don't grab me. Different strokes for different judges.

Short Program - Sasha
Long Program - ???? Mao or Kimmie

Based on the numbers, Lysacek should walk away with this, but I'm awaiting and aseeing.

 

[Skye]

So are we supposed to predict the winning team or the individual skater?

In the Ladies, if there are 2 SPs and 1 LP, my guess is that Mao will win over Kimmie and bring victory to Team Japan. If there are 1 SP and 2 LPs, I'm sure Mai stands no chance against Sasha, and it will be all up to Miki against Emily to determine the final outcome - of course I'm rooting for Miki.

As for the Men, considering that Johnny and Evan have been engaged in the COI tour all summer, I expect Daisuke and Nobu to be in better form.

 

[Mathman]

The winning strategy for the Japanese ladies seems to be, throw Mai Asada under the Sasha bus in the short program, then try to recoup in the long.

If Mai can hold Sasha's lead to 10 points, then Mao and Miki only have to win their head-to-head by 5 point each.

As for me, I'm rooting for Mai. Hey, who's the Big Sister around here, anyway!

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The winning strategy for the Japanese ladies seems to be, throw Mai Asada under the Sasha bus in the short program, then try to recoup in the long.

If Mai can hold Sasha's lead to 10 points, then Mao and Miki only have to win their head-to-head by 5 point each.

As for me, I'm rooting for Mai. Hey, who's the Big Sister around here, anyway!

Yea! Japan!

 

[slutskayafan21]

I think Oda will take it. I just think he is somebody who is going to make a big move this year. He has the most room for growth of the current top skaters, largely because he is the youngest.

 

[chuckm]

I think Oda will take it. I just think he is somebody who is going to make a big move this year. He has the most room for growth of the current top skaters, largely because he is the youngest.

Oda can't "take it"! It's a group competition. The TEAM with the most points wins it.

 

[visaliakid]

I love the Japanese skaters, both men and ladies, but... Okay, call me patriotic, crazy, whatever! I do hope Kimmie and Evan lead the Americans to an upset win.

 

[riverflows]

I wouldn't call it an upset win if the Americans won-- the Japanese skaters are (for the most part) younger than the Americans, have less Senior/International/Cheesefest experience, and they're skating in America.

It'd be an upset if the Americans lost.

 

[R.D.]

I think it's a fair matchup of nations. The two Big Ones, sounds fair enough to me. :agree:

Now, as for the Skaters themselves...at least on the ladies' side...you've got Cohen (who seems to match up with Suguri well), Miki Ando (who seems to match up best with Kimmie) and then you've got Mai, an up-and-comer on the Japanese side against the "weak link" (sorry, no offense intended) of the Americans, Emily Hughes. Still, one could argue that Hughes has the advantage over Mai because of experience and overall skating ability. But Hughes still has problems in the freeskate, and looking at the numbers posted above I'm not so sure she's strong in the short program, either. But remember, anyone can be a "better" skater ON PAPER, but we really don't know who's going to be better until the competition takes place.

 

[Mathman]

Well, Fumie would be a good match for Sasha, but Fumie won't be there. So I think it will be Mai Asada (not exactly an up-and-comer, I wouldn't say) who will try to keep Sasha from getting too big a lead in the SP.

The match-up everyone has been waiting for is not Kimmie against Miki Ando, but World Champion Kimmie against Grand Prix Champion Mao Asada.

That leaves Miki against Emily, assuming that the format features head-to-head matchups at all. They might just say, all 6 skaters skate, then we'll add up the points at the end. But it will be more exciting if they go two-by-two, so the commentators can say stuff like, "U.S.A. takes an early lead off a brilliant Dark Eyes by Sasha landing her 10 points ahead of Mai. But look out now because here comes Mao!"

I wouldn't count Emily out, whether she performs a short program or a long. Last year she started slowly coming off an illness. But she saved the best for last, skating great in the Olympics and Worlds, as Miki fell by the way side at the end of the season.

 

[MKFSfan]

Seems like our assumption that Sasha will skate a SP at the Cheesefest may be true. Over at FSU, someone reported that Sasha skated to Dark Eyes at the Japan COI, only did a 2axle. Now, maybe she opted not to use GBA since it would seem strange to play patriotic music in another country, but she does have DROMP waiting in the wings which is just as much of a crowd pleaser, with same moves/jumps as GBA. So, my take is we will be seeing DE at Campbells.

 

[Mathman]

How USA can win.

I just thought of something. Maybe they will double the points for those skaters who elect to do a short program, just to make it fair.

The CoP is constructed with the expectation that you will get about twice as many points in your LP as in your SP. There are three jumping passes in the SP compared to seven in the LP, the program conponent scores are multiplied by .8 in the SP and by 1.6 in the LP, etc.

So if a skater does a 55 point SP, that's about the same as a 110 point LP.

This would put all skaters on an equal footing, in terms of point totals. Sasha could get 6.6 points for a double Axel and lead team USA to a comeback victory in the final skate!

 

[hockeyfan228]

I just thought of something. Maybe they will double the points for those skaters who elect to do a short program, just to make it fair.

The CoP is constructed with the expectation that you will get about twice as many points in your LP as in your SP. There are three jumping passes in the SP compared to seven in the LP, the program conponent scores are multiplied by .8 in the SP and by 1.6 in the LP, etc.

So if a skater who does a 55 point SP, that's about the same as a 110 point LP.

This would put all skaters on an equal footing, in terms of point totals. Sasha could get 6.6 points for a double Axel and lead team USA to a comeback victory in the final skate!

But then that's not fair to the skates who actually do all of those LP elements.

 

[Spun Silver]

I just thought of something. Maybe they will double the points for those skaters who elect to do a short program, just to make it fair.

The CoP is constructed with the expectation that you will get about twice as many points in your LP as in your SP. There are three jumping passes in the SP compared to seven in the LP, the program conponent scores are multiplied by .8 in the SP and by 1.6 in the LP, etc.

So if a skater who does a 55 point SP, that's about the same as a 110 point LP.

This would put all skaters on an equal footing, in terms of point totals. Sasha could get 6.6 points for a double Axel and lead team USA to a comeback victory in the final skate!

MM comes through again with the perfect outcome! This way, my favorites Mao and Miki can beat Kimmie and Emily, but my most favorite Sasha can beat Mai (who's "thrown under the bus" as MM so sweetly puts it) and win the whole competition for Team USA.

Go, Sasha! Go, USA! Go, MM!

 

[skatingfan5]

I just thought of something. Maybe they will double the points for those skaters who elect to do a short program, just to make it fair.

..... This would put all skaters on an equal footing, in terms of point totals. Sasha could get 6.6 points for a double Axel and lead team USA to a comeback victory in the final skate!

Since this is a team event, there is no need to "put all skaters on an equal footing". I'm sure that the format will have an equal number of SPs and LPs for each team -- not sure how the team members will divide up the assignments, but likely it will be decided amongst each team. Sasha skating a SP makes perfect sense, since she has always had better results for her SP's.

 

[Mathman]

But then that's not fair to the skates who actually do all of those LP elements.

Well, the rationale would go like this. Sasha does a triple Lutz. She does it with such confidence and panache that everyone says, boy, I bet if she did a triple loop, too, she would get a +1 GOE. So that's 12.0 point in all.

(Reason # 1289 why USFS didn't hire me to produce this show. )

 

[hockeyfan228]

Well, the rationale would go like this. Sasha does a triple Lutz. She does it with such confidence and panache that everyone says, boy, I bet if she did a triple loop, too, she would get a +1 GOE. So that's 12.0 point in all.

(Reason # 1289 why USFS didn't hire me to produce this show. )

You know I love Sasha Cohen, but if she learns to do an actual lutz -- i.e. pick behind her instead of out to the inside edge side -- by Campbell's...

 

[slutskayafan21]

Oda can't "take it"! It's a group competition. The TEAM with the most points wins it.

Thats right, sorry.