Had Tom made this statement like let's say leading up to an ISU Congress (where they can actually bring forth proposals and such), then maybe folks could hash this out more.
Doing this now, no matter how much he congratulates the medalists and tries to neutralize the issue, come off as self-serving. I would have at least have waited a few weeks rather than the day after the competition. Just my two cents. Also it could totally backfire on him because the tech panel might be more inclined to not give him the benefit of the doubt.
I don’t see any upside for Zhou, and frankly it looks like even more messy drama. The state of US figure skating right now:
Tara and Johnny: achronicURersayswhat
Tom: what?
Tara and Johnny:
Nelson ha-ha
And Zhou creates enough messy drama on his own. Is Tom even his primary coach? Regardless, I think the most worth saying publicly is some remarks about appreciating the support from Tara and Johnny but accepting the scores, and while there’s some disappointment, of course, said disappointment is only fuel to keep advancing, long-term plan, etc.
Regarding my earlier statement --- I do think that the tech panel have gone to extremes with Vincent. He had ZERO URs at Junior Worlds 2017 FS and Worlds 2018 SP and just 1 at 2018 Olympics FS. Yes he gets a lot of URs and DGs in his other competitions, but I scratch my head and wonder why they were completely overlooked in these three segments.
WC18 TP was noticeably lenient for the SP, though, so I don’t think that’s the example you want, as after Boyang was given a barely-justifiable call on the 4T (which was, at most, exactly on the quarter), it was immediately noted that Zhou and Chen had jumps that were visibly UR’ed without slo-mo that weren’t called. I think Zhou benefits from a lenient tech panel as much as everyone who makes mistakes does — that is to say, the more lenient the panel, the less likely he is to get a UR or DG. The WC18 example is admittedly weird, due to what happened with Boyang, which is why it blew up at all (had Boyang not been given that questionable call, I think the consensus would have been that the TP was irritatingly chicken about making calls). I treat TPs as a black box, as we have no insight into how or why they’re making the decisions they do, and it’s more of a happy accident when they get the calls right than the intended outcome.
But, again, there are two other factors that help carry explanatory weight in terms of Zhou’s carrot garden being in full bloom: (1) the disappearance of any benefit of the doubt (which he might have still had a shred of left at WC18) and (2) the tightening of the rules regarding URs this season, which makes URs that may not have been called last season due to being on the quarter no longer a matter of discretionary judgment.
Going back to Tom’s statement for a moment: I’m still deeply uncomfortable with it if for no other reason than it isn’t helping Zhou (whether he can be helped is a separate issue). He seemed legitimately surprised when he got his scores after the short, which he shouldn’t have been. One of his coaches needs to have the come to Jesus talk with him about “I know you UR, you know you UR, the tech panel knows you UR, and you need to be ready for the moment when your score is much lower than you want until you stop being a rabbit food depot of carrots.” Maybe that convo is happening behind the scenes, but I doubt it. Combined with Zhou’s propensity for headcasing... it’s not good.
And it’s also all completely unnecessary drama given how unlikely it was that Zhou would make the GPF. I’m sure Zhou’s team wanted him to finish higher, but even if he’d been on the podium, he was an extreme long shot for the finals. Skate America is by far the weakest of the GP events for the men, with the rest being shark pools, and there are at least five guys who are a lock for the final barring crazy wipeouts: Hanyu, Uno, Boyang, Chen, and very likely Kolyada (though Hanyu, Boyang, and Kolyada all meet for their first GP event). Junhwan Cha is someone who could easily make the final with a combination of two good showings and a little luck with regard to how everyone else places, and he’s not alone in that “could outright make the final or just be on the bubble for a bit” grouping. So in Zhou’s case, this is a lot of sound and fury about a GP event he was never going to win and a GPF he was extremely unlikely to ever qualify for (even as an alternate).
ETA: To pivot and look ahead, this situation does make Vincent's status as U.S. No. 2 a bit murky for now. It could provide some movement for a hungry junior skater like Camden Pulkinen and Tomoki Hiwatashi or a comeback veteran like Jason Brown.
I think Zhou is at real risk of losing his “guy who isn’t Chen” spot/guaranteed spot on the team, as consistency is not something he’s known for and the 4Lz‘s BV is no longer 13.6 points. And those points were everything: having two guys who had the 4Lz and the 4F in their arsenals meant the US had two skaters with astronomical BV programmes who simply needed to rotate and ideally not fall on those elements (and, if they had to fall, to at least rotate the jumps first). TES is extremely volatile, BVs ain’t what they used to be, and the raw BV just isn’t there if you fall on a rotated quad with those points having been whittled down as well as moved into GOE. It may not happen immediately, as if Zhou places third or fourth at US Nationals, he’ll still almost certainly make the team for Worlds, but looking forward... my internal Magic 8 Ball reads “OUTLOOK NOT SO GOOD.”
I can see Jason mounting a comeback, but like Zhou, he’s had issues consistently delivering results and I suspect USFS will hedge against selecting him in a close call situation unless he has a rock-solid season, as USFS seems to be hilariously slow at reacting to scoring changes and assessing who is more likely to score well versus who has the highest scoring potential with no errors. (Also, USFS sucks and tolerates abusers. Screw USFS.) Next year is when I expect blood. (Lots of blood.)
Right now, Krasnozhon is probably the biggest threat. But I don’t think the head-to-head results are the most determinative stat for USFS right now, given their institutional history of being slow to accept change. I actually have zero faith USFS fully understands the new scoring system, which is good for Zhou, as it means his 3.xF and Lutz are overvalued relative to a +5 triple. He also has the competition experience. There is a case for putting him on the Worlds team, assuming he doesn’t have a disaster skate at Nats, but his stock is going down. A continuation of what we’ve seen throughout the season and/or strong showings from skaters like Brown could easily cost him his spot this year.
And that makes Tom’s post even more mystifying, as Tom did not help Zhou’s narrative at all — he made the situation worse. It starts to reinforce the idea that Zhou has major flaws below the surface and, perhaps more importantly to USFS, the fact that he’s now had several major underpeformances. (WC18 LPs were a disaster all around, sure, but Zhou needs everyone to forget about his plummet from podium position to lowest placing US man.) That’s more lethal than any tech panel. Why send a known risk when you can send someone nobody is expecting too much from to build experience if Nats are less than ideal for Zhou? Add the whole team of coaches, the repeated blowups in terms of drama, and now this... that’s not the narrative you want. Especially when the narrative coming from one of Zhou’s coaches and the NBC talking points (which are USFS propaganda) are starkly diverging — “Zhou could rival Chen!” is not the story arc you want to be pushing when it doesn’t match reality, as casual fans are going to be confused as to why the experts aren’t reflecting what the scores say and eventually notice that they’re being solid a false bill of goods.
.....Can you be more specific? I think I know where you're going but, I don't want to upset anyone.
