Even so, Vincent's scores aren't any worse then the rest of the U.S. men's field outside of Nathan and Jason at this point. He still has a good shot at world team spot and It's not out of the question (i.e. see 2017 AND 2018 Nationals as reference) that he ends up peaking at Nationals and placing second.
The scores last year went in a very similar fashion last year with Jason (and Adam) having higher scores than Vincent leading up to U.S. Nationals last year. And Grand Prix results give some direction, but it doesn't necessarily predict the future.
And also there seems to be a very slight trend back toward superior skating skills these days. Jason has those! Nathan - not as much, although he's shown great improvement.
I don't quite agree with the Nathan doesn't have good skating skills narrative. At one time, I'd argue that Nathan actually had better skating skills than Jason, I would say circa 2014 or so, having seen them both live at U.S. Nationals that year (Nathan won the junior men's title and Jason was second to get on the Sochi team). Jason always had better outward performance ability and his choreography was more interesting than Nathan's at the time, but that's a whole different matter.
Jason, to his and Kori's credit, improved his skating skills markedly during the last Olympic quad and he's continued that improvement under Tracy Wilson's tutelage.
I haven't gotten to see Nathan live yet -- but I will soon at GPF! -- this season, but comparing them at U.S. Nationals, I didn't really see that Nathan or Jason had better skating skills than the other. I'd throw in Ross Miner in there, whose skating skills are top notch.
I would say that Jason does have the edge with polish, packaging and overall posture. That was one thing that was striking about Jason this season-- he's never had BAD posture, but there were some small adjustments (which he's talked about at various interviews) he's made regarding his body position to better do the jumps, but a nice side effect is that his posture has improved more. The polish on the programs, especially the short, is impressive given that we're mid-season.
Nathan has really good speed and edge work, but his posture/positions are a bit sloppy at times, which is kinda of interesting given his ballet training. I know he's capable of much better, but it doesn't translate with his programs -especially the free skate -- perhaps as product of the higher technical content. I do like the advancements he's making toward defining a performance style -- and I hope he'll continue to work with SLB because she's doing a good job in crafting that contemporary style for him.
I think right now Nathan just has such as huge base value/ overall TES advantage that he still, at this point, will likely run away with it, but I think the fun part about IdF is that we saw that perhaps, just perhaps, a window on what it might be like for Nathan to be challenged by someone else -- Jason -- who brings different strengths to the table.