2018-2019 State of Japanese Men's Skating

[Shanshani]

I think JSF won't care about last WC, at all.
And about pressure, i think pressure was more on Shoma's and Keiji's shoulders. Kazuki was more the nice surprise who made it to worlds thanks to two withdrawals, and delivered.
I can see fed choosing Keiji even if he always bombs in big comps.

I'm pretty sure Kazuki skated his FS after Keiji had his usual issues keeping it together, so the pressure was definitely on as Shoma did not look like he was in good condition (and indeed wasn't) and nobody knew the final flight would bomb so hard that he'd be able to stay second even with a very messy skate. Plus, I think there is *more* pressure to perform if you don't know whether you'll have a shot at World's again.

Anyway, it's not as though the case for Kazuki relies only on his WC performance last year. He also medaled on the GP this year.

 

[Shanshani]

Do sports teams get to carry over wins from the previous season?


Yuzuru won a Grand Prix event last season. That alone made him worthy of consideration.

What do you mean 'carry over' wins from the previous season? I fail to see how this comparison is relevant. And the past season definitely 'carries over' when it comes to determining GP assignments and judges' scoring of PCS.

And sure, Yuzu still had the second best results but even if other men had been stronger, it would have been ridiculous not to send him.

 

[zanadude]

What do you mean 'carry over' wins from the previous season? I fail to see how this comparison is relevant.

Previous season's results have no bearing on the current season. If last season's undefeated champion goes 9-7 in their division, and a different team goes 10-6, the team that went 10-6 will advance 100% of the time.

And the past season definitely 'carries over' when it comes to determining GP assignments and judges' scoring of PCS.

I'm not disputing that that's the way that things are done. That's why I labelled my comment about it as a personal dislike, as opposed to calling it objectively wrong.

 

[yume]

I'm pretty sure Kazuki skated his FS after Keiji had his usual issues keeping it together, so the pressure was definitely on as Shoma did not look like he was in good condition (and indeed wasn't) and nobody knew the final flight would bomb so hard that he'd be able to stay second even with a very messy skate. Plus, I think there is *more* pressure to perform if you don't know whether you'll have a shot at World's again.

Anyway, it's not as though the case for Kazuki relies only on his WC performance last year. He also medaled on the GP this year.

I want Kazuki to win that 3rd spot. If not him then Sota, by some miracle.
But i don't think JSF will have that GP medal in mind. Even myself i wouldn't think about that medal.

 

[yume]

About past results and Yuzu being selected because of that. IMO, he's selected because he's YUZU, before considering everything. There is not even a debate about sending him to worlds/olympics or not.

 

[Shanshani]

Previous season's results have no bearing on the current season. If last season's undefeated champion goes 9-7 in their division, and a different team goes 10-6, the team that went 10-6 will advance 100% of the time.


I'm not disputing that that's the way that things are done. That's why I labelled my comment about it as a personal dislike, as opposed to calling it objectively wrong.

That just isn't how FS works though--in fact, it is built into the very rules of Worlds that last year's Worlds matter, because last years World's is what determines how many spots a team even has to distribute. Nationals is not the qualifying round for Worlds, Worlds teams are chosen largely by considering who is most likely to produce the best results, and for that consideration, past performance matters, including past performance from previous seasons.

 

[zanadude]

About past results and Yuzu being selected because of that. IMO, he's selected because he's YUZU, before considering everything. There is not even a debate about sending him to worlds/olympics or not.

I'm not sure that I agree with that. There has always been a valid reason for sending him irrespective of his lifetime accomplishments.

We won't know for sure if that's truly the case until we come to a season where he accomplishes basically nothing up to the conclusion of Nationals.

Nationals is not the qualifying round for Worlds

It most definitely is the qualifying round for Worlds! Whoever wins Nationals, assuming they meet ISU qualifications, is automatically a part of the squad.

You think the JSU wants to send Tsuboi ahead of other options?

 

[Shanshani]

I'm not sure that I agree with that. There has always been a valid reason for sending him irrespective of his lifetime accomplishments.

We won't know for sure if that's truly the case until we come to a season where he accomplishes basically nothing up to the conclusion of Nationals.


It most definitely is the qualifying round for Worlds! Whoever wins Nationals, assuming they meet ISU qualifications, is automatically a part of the squad.

You think the JSU wants to send Tsuboi ahead of other options?

It's not a qualifying round in the way of a traditional tournament structure. Hence Yuzu still making it to Worlds/Olys despite not being able to make Nats for three years. It's only one factor considered.

I'm not saying current season/Nats results don't matter. If Kazuki bombs and another pull it off send the other. But if they perform similarly, I would send Kazuki, even if the other skater places slightly higher.

 

[yume]

I'm not sure that I agree with that. There has always been a valid reason for sending him irrespective of his lifetime accomplishments.

We won't know for sure if that's truly the case until we come to a season where he accomplishes basically nothing up to the conclusion of Nationals.

Yes there was always a valid reason. I didn't express myself very well.
My thought is: It would have been for any other skater to get those spots/the fairness of the decisio would have been more discussed for any other skater. It's just clear that even severely injured the guy will always be in the mix.
Yuzu deserved those spots and JSF did the right thing since the guy got them a worlds championships and an olympic title.

 

[yume]

Seriously juniors ranks are so crowded that fed should force some of them to go in seniors. There is like 6-8 boys of more or less the same level who could have get those two spots.

 

[TallyT]

I think FS federations do have to find a way to take into account at least one year back if not a pattern, because skating being as fraught as it is, none of them are in top form all season long: some of them start off strong then slide a bit, some go up and down like toddler yoyos on a sugar high, and some start slow (see darling Boyang) and then tend to peak later - like 4cc and hopefully Worlds So someone having a bad trot this year, but who had a similar last year but really brought it in the last few competitions... they'd be mad not to fudge a little for him.

 

[Metis]

I'm pretty sure Kazuki skated his FS after Keiji had his usual issues keeping it together, so the pressure was definitely on as Shoma did not look like he was in good condition (and indeed wasn't) and nobody knew the final flight would bomb so hard that he'd be able to stay second even with a very messy skate. Plus, I think there is *more* pressure to perform if you don't know whether you'll have a shot at World's again.

Anyway, it's not as though the case for Kazuki relies only on his WC performance last year. He also medaled on the GP this year.

Actually, no. Kazuki did a major favour for Shoma by having the skate of his life at Worlds — he guaranteed three spots even if Shoma finished seventh (which would have put Kazuki in sixth). Even if the final flight hadn’t been a meltdown, Shoma would have had breathing room and could have finished off the podium without Japan being in danger of losing three spots. And given Shoma’s condition at Worlds, it wasn’t clear what would happen. (Can we just... pretend the final flight of Worlds never happened? I’d actually like to erase those memories.)

 

[Shanshani]

Actually, no. Kazuki did a major favour for Shoma by having the skate of his life at Worlds — he guaranteed three spots even if Shoma finished seventh (which would have put Kazuki in sixth). Even if the final flight hadn’t been a meltdown, Shoma would have had breathing room and could have finished off the podium without Japan being in danger of losing three spots. And given Shoma’s condition at Worlds, it wasn’t clear what would happen. (Can we just... pretend the final flight of Worlds never happened? I’d actually like to erase those memories.)

I'm confused why you say 'actually, no' because I think we agree with each other. Kazuki very much did a team Japan a big favor, that's what I was trying to say. I remember being really worried for Japan's men's spots after Keiji skated but then Kazuki went out and killed it and at that point it became almost certain that Japan would keep them even if Shoma had a bad competition. That's why I think Kazuki was under a lot of pressure--because it looked like it really would come down to him and Shoma to save spots, and Shoma wasn't looking good. Kazuki delivered and then some.

 

[thexfireball]

Yuzuru won a Grand Prix event last season. That alone made him worthy of consideration.

No he didn’t. He got silver at COR

 

[zanadude]

No he didn’t. He got silver at COR

I stand corrected. But that's still vastly better than everyone else that didn't win Nationals.

 

[zanadude]

By stumbling his way to a silver medal, Daisuke Takahashi has made a fool of every skater not named Yuzuru Hanyu or Shoma Uno.

 

[MaiKatze]

By stumbling his way to a silver medal, Daisuke Takahashi has made a fool of every skater not named Yuzuru Hanyu or Shoma Uno.

We know that the level of Japan's elite men behind Shoma and Yuzuru is not exactly what I would call appeasing, but this is a bit unfair. Of course, they could've stepped up, but the two skaters who really had a chance of ending up higher than Daisuke are wildly inconsistent and have never been a source of guaranteed top results. And then you have Daisuke Takahashi who is Japan's first World Champion and Olympic Medalist. It's not easy to compete against that, especially when you're not a secure skater anyway. Sota Yamamoto did well in landing a Quad and there is hope for the future with the juniors who are growing and jumping Quads. Perhaps they need a little time. And then, Shoma and Yuzuru are still young enough to carry the torch a bit longer.

 

[Interspectator]

World's Team Selection
Shoma Uno
Keiji Tanaka
Yuzuru Hanuy

4CC Team
Shoma Uno
Keiji Tanaka
Kazuki Tomono

 

[zanadude]

We know that the level of Japan's elite men behind Shoma and Yuzuru is not exactly what I would call appeasing, but this is a bit unfair. Of course, they could've stepped up, but the two skaters who really had a chance of ending up higher than Daisuke are wildly inconsistent and have never been a source of guaranteed top results. And then you have Daisuke Takahashi who is Japan's first World Champion and Olympic Medalist. It's not easy to compete against that, especially when you're not a secure skater anyway. Sota Yamamoto did well in landing a Quad and there is hope for the future with the juniors who are growing and jumping Quads. Perhaps they need a little time. And then, Shoma and Yuzuru are still young enough to carry the torch a bit longer.

Give them all another year. As for this year, might as well send the old man, since nobody else stepped up to say that they deserve the spot.

Edit: or don't, whatever

And I would hope that most of the elite lady skaters would find a way to defeat Mao Asada if she decides to show up again.

 

[eaglehelang]

World's Team Selection
Shoma Uno
Keiji Tanaka
Yuzuru Hanuy

4CC Team
Shoma Uno
Keiji Tanaka
Kazuki Tomono

Takahashi doesnt want to compete Internationally? At least 4CC?