Yuzuru Hanyu: 2018-2019

[Amef]

I'm very curious whether Yuzu will include 4Lo for Worlds, now that Nathan, Vincent, Boyang and Shoma have more consistent quads and higher BV..
Will he risk it? I think he can still win with 2 quads if he is perfectly clean, and I don't want him to be injured again...

 

[Henni147]

I wouldn't expect anything else other than silence until the Worlds...( not counting ads and such), and I think that is the plan since that's how it has always been done in Yuzuru's case.

https://mobile.twitter.com/axelsandwich/status/1094869652793024512

"Brian confirmed Yuzu is in preparation for Worlds in March and asked about the status of his quads & practice state, says it’s ‘top secret’ and that Yuzu is rehabilitating with physiotherapy"


I would say, Plushy's second place in Vancouver, Yuna's silver in Sochi and the way of scoring at recent events have lead to the following conclusion:
If you want to win without relying on others' mistakes or the judges' mercy, you have to make sure that the gap between your max potential and the rest of the field is big enough plus 4-5 points back-up (to scotch any kind of judging tricks).

If Nathan skates both programs clean with 6-7 quads in total, Yuzu needs something really really special that shocks everyone. The judges, the audience, even his own coaching team Otherwise I'm not sure, if they go with him this time.
I hope, the 'top secret'-strategy pays off :agree:

 

[lzxnl]

I'm very curious whether Yuzu will include 4Lo for Worlds, now that Nathan, Vincent, Boyang and Shoma have more consistent quads and higher BV..
Will he risk it? I think he can still win with 2 quads if he is perfectly clean, and I don't want him to be injured again...

Yuzuru has little chance of winning with two quads if perfectly clean solely because Nathan has three, maybe even four, and that's a huge tech difference I don't think Yuzuru can make up with GOEs. I think he can do at most one fewer quad than Nathan to have his own fate in his hands. Yuzuru with four quads might just edge out Nathan with five, but they have to be clean.

 

[TallyT]

I'm going to try and NOT think or talk about Worlds any more, it's just too nerve-wracking - and the building rinse and repeat of last years' pre-Olys too aggravating.

(PS - I;m not asking anyone else here not to talk about it, nonononono... but I just can't any more)

 

[lzxnl]

I'm very curious whether Yuzu will include 4Lo for Worlds, now that Nathan, Vincent, Boyang and Shoma have more consistent quads and higher BV..
Will he risk it? I think he can still win with 2 quads if he is perfectly clean, and I don't want him to be injured again...

Yuzuru needs the 4Lo to be competitive at Worlds. Nathan will almost surely go for the 4S and that'll give him four types of quads. I don't think Yuzuru can overcome such a large TES gap with two quads unless Nathan falls.

 

[Wynter]

Yuzuru needs the 4Lo to be competitive at Worlds. Nathan will almost surely go for the 4S and that'll give him four types of quads. I don't think Yuzuru can overcome such a large TES gap with two quads unless Nathan falls.

Why don't we just wait and see? Yuzu will have better planning and strategy than what we can come up with.
Whichever technical contents he goes with, I hope he'll be satisfied with his performances at Worlds.

 

[eaglehelang]

Yuzuru has little chance of winning with two quads if perfectly clean solely because Nathan has three, maybe even four, and that's a huge tech difference I don't think Yuzuru can make up with GOEs. I think he can do at most one fewer quad than Nathan to have his own fate in his hands. Yuzuru with four quads might just edge out Nathan with five, but they have to be clean.

I think Amef means 2 different type of quads, 4S & 4T. It means in the LP Yuzuru does 3 quads and 2 3As. 2 combos in 2nd half.
The layout at 2018 COR in 2nd half was 4T+3S, 3A combo, 3A . So a possible layout could be - 4S, 4T, 3A+2T, 3Loop , 4T+3T(or 4S+3T), 3A+1Eu+3S, 3F or 3 Lutz.
His 3A combos has always gotten a lot of pts for him, 16 pts at Helsinki GP.

Shoma obtained 197 pts with just 3 quads at 4CC, quads all without the 10% bonus.

 

[Interspectator]

After watching Yuzu make the jump calculations every season, I've mostly given up trying to guess for him. He's been smart about what is needed to win as we've seen time and again. -If his body will let him, he'll do the maximum. If that's not possible, he'll still go far beyond what others may think is possible in the circumstances.

This season, I actually feel that every time we get to see Yuzu skate is a bonus and a present and I treasure what it is...but to each their own. There are so many ways to enjoy Yuzu's skating.

This year definitely feels different for me watching him. There's still the tension of wanting him to win everything, but there's also a lot more enjoyment of what ever it is he wants to do next, than I felt before. -A bit difficult to describe, but there it is.

 

[lzxnl]

I think Amef means 2 different type of quads, 4S & 4T. It means in the LP Yuzuru does 3 quads and 2 3As. 2 combos in 2nd half.
The layout at 2018 COR in 2nd half was 4T+3S, 3A combo, 3A . So a possible layout could be - 4S, 4T, 3A+2T, 3Loop , 4T+3T(or 4S+3T), 3A+1Eu+3S, 3F or 3 Lutz.
His 3A combos has always gotten a lot of pts for him, 16 pts at Helsinki GP.

Shoma obtained 197 pts with just 3 quads at 4CC, quads all without the 10% bonus.

I'm aware of what Amef means. Nathan has four types of quads: 4S (if he uses it), 4T, 4F, 4Lz, and he also does two 3As. His technical score at Nationals was actually not very inflated at all; 120 is not too far from what that would have scored technically internationally, and certainly not inappropriate if he does a 4S too. Yuzuru was on about 105 at Helsinki before tech called URs and that's with his 4Lo.

 

[eaglehelang]

I'm aware of what Amef means. Nathan has four types of quads: 4S (if he uses it), 4T, 4F, 4Lz, and he also does two 3As. His technical score at Nationals was actually not very inflated at all; 120 is not too far from what that would have scored technically internationally, and certainly not inappropriate if he does a 4S too. Yuzuru was on about 105 at Helsinki before tech called URs and that's with his 4Lo.

Provided there's no UR calls. Nathan has gotten ! calls & UR calls in all his competitions Internationally for this season. Nathan hasnt performed a 4S in competition this season I think.

So has Shoma except for 4CC. Shoma consistently gets called on his 4S. Stimes 4F.

With the change of rules this season, a skater cant just do a quad and risk it if its success rate is not consistent enough. I include minimum UR as part of the success rate.

 

[ankifeather]

I'm aware of what Amef means. Nathan has four types of quads: 4S (if he uses it), 4T, 4F, 4Lz, and he also does two 3As. His technical score at Nationals was actually not very inflated at all; 120 is not too far from what that would have scored technically internationally, and certainly not inappropriate if he does a 4S too. Yuzuru was on about 105 at Helsinki before tech called URs and that's with his 4Lo.

Why are you comparing the overall TES of Nathan's skate of his life to the TES of Hanyu's first GP competition pancake?

TES is a combination of BV and GOE. Nathan's BV at the Nationals FS is about 94. Hanyu's BV at Helsinki is about 92 - that is like 2 points difference? a difference that GOEs on 1-2 jumps can eliminate. It's basically then a competition between the two on who can achieve the most GOEs and PCS.

The difference between overall TES was caused by Nathan receiving almost +5 GOEs on every jump in a late season clean skate at home, whilst Hanyu had bad landing on most jumps in Helsinki that received little to negative GOEs due to bad ice conditions and his first outing in the GP. If he went clean on the Helsinki layout, he will be getting much more than 105. Just on GOE alone there is potential to add another 20+ marks. I understand Nathan can add another 4S, but each additional quad is additional risk, which is the same if say Yuzu try to bring 4Lz back.

Finally, his four quad program at Worlds 2017 (and I think we can all agree the judges marked super harsh on this one) and three quad program at GPF 2015 all scored more than the 6 quad program at Worlds 2018. So it is possible to be 2-3 quads less and still achieve higher marks even against a cleanish 6 quad program.

Of course Yuzu won't leave things to the judges hands and so I don't think he will come rocking up without a 4 quad back-up plan. Although, interestingly enough, a lot of men's best season international outings this year were with 3 quads, not 4. Yuzu also still holds the record for the combined highest TES across SP & FS internationally this season (from Helsinki GP).

 

[Imov]

I will still be going to saitama even if I don't have tickets.
Are there any public veiwing places I can go?
Just in case I loose it, I will be one of the crowd ^^

 

[Shanshani]

My calcs suggest Yuzu should be able to out-score Nathan on GOE and PCS if Nathan only jumps one more quad than Yuzu, so if Nathan doesn’t add 4S, then Yuzu should actually be able to get away with not adding 4Lo. On the other hand, if Yuzu adds 4Lo, then Nathan needs 4S to stand a chance of winning (under the assumption that both are clean—pretty big assumption there). Judging can be a little unpredictable, however. The competition is in Japan though, so if judging is wonky it should be more likely to benefit Yuzu than Nathan. It’s also important to note that just as adding 4Lo introduces more risk to Yuzu’s program, so does adding 4S for Nathan. So I’d say it’s a pretty even match-up, with Yuzu favored if they do the same number of quads, at least theoretically.

Practically, though, I’d say the biggest factor at World’s will simply be whoever is better physical condition. Nathan’s obviously looking very strong, but we’ve seen skaters skate lights out in the middle of the season and then wind up having issues at Worlds before, so it’s not a sure thing. Yuzu’s a question mark because of the injury (so is Shoma—he obviously did well at 4CC but he did water down his program, which he won’t be able to do at Worlds if he wants to win).

Anyway, some Japanese TV thing measured Yuzu’s 4S! Link. I really hope we get to see data on the jumps of the different top competitors at Worlds. I wanna see if my perception that Yuzu has significantly bigger jumps than Nathan and Shoma is true or just me being biased (70cm + 3.5m does suggest that Yuzu jumps significantly bigger). I also want to know how Yuzu’s jumps compare to Boyang’s monster 4Lz—I’m guessing the 4Lz is bigger, but it would be interesting to see whether it’s a bigger or smaller difference.

 

[Farnaz]

I really don't understand this repeating cycle of premonition that how Yuzuru is going to battle out X or Y.

Come on guys, it's the other way around. It's X or Y that should come up with strategies to how to challenge Yuzuru. I want to remind everyone that Yuzuru Hanyu has already retired at least two generations of skaters without being defeated. By defeat I don't mean just one or two competitions but the whole career of a skater. They all are gone, but he is still there and now it is up to the third generation of skaters to challenge him.

I don't know about the other fans but I personally believe that he is the GOAT not the other way around.

 

[ankifeather]

I really don't understand this repeating cycle of premonition that how Yuzuru is going to battle out X or Y.

Come on guys, it's the other way around. It's X or Y that should come up with strategies to how to challenge Yuzuru. I want to remind everyone that Yuzuru Hanyu has already retired at least two generations of skaters without being defeated. By defeat I don't mean just one or two competitions but the whole career of a skater. They all are gone, but he is still there and now it is up to the third generation of skaters to challenge him.

I don't know about the other fans but I personally believe that he is the GOAT not the other way around.

Actually it is 4 generations of retired skaters if you count every competitor he competed against for the podium in seniors (using every ~4 years as one generation)

Starting from Joubert/Plushenko (11-12 yr older)- he did not manage to cross this generation much, but when he did he won

Takahashi (8 years older) , Javi / Patrick (4 years older) , Han Yan / Denis Ten (similar age)

And now the younger generations he compete at top level with:

Nathan/Shoma/Jin (4-5 years younger), Jun/Vincent/jr soon to turn sr (6-8 years younger) and if he stays to Beijing, he will cross path with the Gogolov, Samsonov generation (i.e. 12 years younger)

That is he could potentially be competing with up to 7 generations at the top level LoL

But most importantly, he competes with himself at the highest level. Since 17 yr old, he has broken records 16 times over the last 7 yrs. Which means on average he breaks world record (i.e. he is not only top of the world, he also topped himself) more than 2 times per year - a very scary growth rate if you ask me.

 

[Farnaz]

Whole post.

Thank you very much for this post, that's exactly what I mean :agree:

 

[yude]

I think I should start praying at the shrine for him since it worked last year

As a one of Yuzuru's fans, I want him to win at WC and he wants to win of course. But maybe more than that, I personally hope he will reach the new goal of "4A in the competition" with health in the next season. Mentioning repeatedly about 4A means he really wants to do it and will go for it because he acts on his words.

Wishing him beautiful performances in WC

 

[Imov]

@ankifeather that analysis was so informative

As someone who admires Yuzu, I will be cheering for him to win.
All I can give him is benefit of sending positive vibes to the universe.

I believe that as soon as Yuzu arrives in Saitama, he has the confidence and preparedness to do so.
With my very limited knowledge, I have full trust on what he was working on these past months.
Ganbatte Yuzuru-senshu!

 

[LeeJiHye19]

I can’t get myself to finish reading the other post. And of course I always want Yuzu to win everything (and I think he can). I want to just think that Yuzuru’s presents is enough to shake all other competitors. And TCC has already do the math for Yuzuru—enough to win the WC. I also think that they already anticipated that Chen or Uno or even Jin has more quads than him. And seeing Yuzu still skating after the PC is just a bonus actually

 

[yude]

I will still be going to saitama even if I don't have tickets.
Are there any public veiwing places I can go?
Just in case I loose it, I will be one of the crowd ^^

Enjoy your trip If I see the information of public viewing, I will post it here.

The competition is in Japan though, so if judging is wonky it should be more likely to benefit Yuzu than Nathan.

I am not so sure about this and I don't even know why