Forget the 4Axel, Hanyu should be training a 3A+3Lo combo for success

[kolyadafan2002]

Yes, but a 4A won’t replace a 3A because a 2A or 3A is required in the SP. This is why it’s not worth doing a 4A in the SP. A silly quirk of the rules similar to how a solo 3A is banned in Juniors yet you can still do it in combination.

He can also do a 4A solo in sp.
e.g 3A, 4A, 4T+3T
again you are correct in that its not worth doing. I hope with next season they allow 4+4 elements in sp

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

From what I understand, for Yuzuru it is landing the 4A over upping the BVs. As he has noted himself that he knows it would be quicker and easier to up his BVs by training his 4Lz and do two of them instead. The Axel is what he wants so he’s going to go for it. So I doubt he would go for the suggested combo.

(That said, here’s a clip of him playing around with 4T-3T-3Lo combo a few years back https://twitter.com/max_ambesi/status/868461596930170880?s=21 )

Thanks for the clip! While it's a good attempt, it also demonstrates exactly why a 3A+3L combo would be awkward for him. Aside from it looking UR, you can see that the loop jump loses flow and makes for a poor landing, plus he doesn't get much height or distance on it. And the jump isn't effortless either. So he could potentially not be awarded bullets for effortless/nice landing/height+distance. And you can see he doesn't check out of the landing on a -3L combo the way he does on a solo 4L or 3L where he get to use horizontal momentum (instead of an up-and-down) to generate flow on the exit.

To reiterate - I'm not saying he can't train a 3A+3L... he just can't make it look good enough that it's worth trying, plus he would be incorporating two different axel-landing techniques. And we're talking a 3A, not an interchangeable 3Z+3T/3Z+3L that some of the Russian wonderkids can do (and even still there are very few 3Z+3L combos that get good GOE because the loop compromises GOE potential by its very nature).

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

For the same reason nobody else does 3A+2Lo: because the tiny base value increase isn't worth the extra difficulty. The judging system we have does not accurately reflect the difficultly of everything. It takes WAY more control to do a Loop combo on the end of a hard jump, particularly one that flows well. It's so much easier to just jam your toepick into the ice and do the toeloop.

If Hanyu had to train 3A+2Lo, which was a "necessity" for top men back in 1988 (!!!), then he would be able to do it beautifully I'm sure. Would he be able to do 3A+3Lo reliably if he actually put the time in to train it? I don't know for sure, but I do think out of all the guys, he's someone who would be most likely to master it. Given that this combination is very possibly the most realistic way Hanyu could find a technical advantage over Chen, it would be wise of him to pursue it. This is literally the most valuable a +3Loop combo has ever been under the CoP judging system, because of how it interacts with the number of jumping passes and attempted jumps being performed.



There's obvious reasons why that's not already happening.

It's strange though, you always assert that something isn't possible, as a straw-man argument. Just a few years ago you said it wasn't feasible for someone to put 5 Triples in the second half of their program.

Adam Rippon of all people was suddenly doing high quality 3Flip+3Loop after never doing combos like that before. So let's stop the tiresome argument about how such things are not realistic, simply because they haven't been done yet. The fact of the matter is, there are beneficial ideas out there that certain skaters and coaches haven't considered yet.

I said this about specifically Ashley Wagner, when you - rather, um... interestingly - suggested she should do 5 triples and two 2As in the back half of her FS -- including a 3T+2A sequence (which would have been 5.92 points at the time; when a much simpler 3T+2T or 3T+2L would have been comparable in points). And lo and behold, never in her career did she do that, nor was she ever capable of it IMO. That's why I said you have to think about the limitations of the skater based on what they've shown.

Re: Adam Rippon doing a 3F+3L, that isn't particularly difficult, compared to a 3A+3L. Did he ever score very well on it in terms of GOE? (He did it perfectly in the Olympics and got mainly +1s.
http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1718/owg2018/OWG2018_MenSingleSkating_FS_Scores.pdf)

He'd be the only person in the whole world doing 3A+3Lo. Judges are extra generous towards elements that stand out like this, and skaters of his reputation get good GOE on every element they do anyway, so long as they execute it relatively clean.

And what's this nonsense about the judges giving more points for a more unique element/jumping pass? Not sure where "combo uniqueness" is in jump GOE criteria. Where is your data that supports your theory that rare jump elements get higher GOE? Otherwise Dmitriev's 3Z+3F should be getting +5's if he executes it well, because it literally doesn't get more stand-out than landing a triple on the opposite foot and going straight up into another triple -- and not a single skater in history has ever done it.

A 3A+3L is hardly unprecedented (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqxQ6lzb-4I) - Alexander Abt did it in 1998. AFAIK, this is the best attempt of it ever and you can still see that the landing is hard to execute well by the very nature of a -3L combo. Interestingly the exit of the -3L looks similar to the -3L on the 4T+3T+3L of Hanyu in that Twitter post. Which makes sense because the loop jump you have to go up and down instead of getting distance, which makes it harder to get flow on the landing and also makes the jump look like it's taking more effort. I mean, Lipinski got more height/distance and speed on the back half of her 3L-3L than that attempt (from 2017).

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Agreed. I think there's a real psychological barrier at work here with him. He was incredible at Skate Canada, but as competition with Nathan creeps closer, I think he's really prone to second-guessing himself and his plan. I find that worrisome because he is so capable of competing against Nathan at his absolute best (and winning under those circumstances). I'm hoping that the switch back to the old programs helps with some of that psychology, but it won't do everything. He needs to find the competitive layout he wants and stick with it up until the FS at Worlds.

As far as the 4A goes, I think it's an admirable goal. But the 4A and winning Worlds seem to be mutually exclusive to me - I don't think he can do both.

Agreed. He needs to focus on himself. His score at 4CC was 35 points back of what Chen produced at the GPF. He should focus on gaining better consistency with the 4Z, instead of training an unprecedented -3L combo which requires a vastly different technique and timing than his 3A+3T combo. It could in fact mess up his money 3A+3T. As we saw at the GPF when he was playing with the 4A, he messed up his 3A in the FS. Previously he messed up a Euler combo because he was playing around with a Eu+4S combo in practice, and then in competition got confused. He needs to formulate a plan and stick to it.

I didn't like how he removed the 4L from his 4CC FS because it's been good to him this season, and he would have to revise his layout for Worlds anyways if he's doing both the 4L and 4Z.

A 3A+3L would just complicate things, even if the math would be better. You have to think about the likely quality of execution, the historical execution of -2L/-3L loop combos by Hanyu (which there isn't), as well as how it will affect a program which he hasn't yet shown the ability to execute cleanly with 5 quads.

The 4A is indeed an admirable goal, but like a 3A+3L it could compromise the rest of his skate. And, forget Chen, it could result in another loss to Uno, or even a skater like Aliev or Jin if they go clean.

 

[oatmella]

Some of this reminds me of the discussion of Nathan in 2017-18 season. Too many changes, too many layouts. 3A+3Lo does not seem that critical to Yuzu’s success.

 

[theharleyquinn]

Some of this reminds me of the discussion of Nathan in 2017-18 season. Too many changes, too many layouts. 3A+3Lo does not seem that critical to Yuzu’s success.

And from that Nathan learned his lesson, trusted Raf more, and started creating a season-long trajectory of leveling up his technical content. It works.

 

[Mathman]

Go for the 4A. He's already got an Olympic championship and a spare, plus a world championship and a spare. Boldly go where no one has ever gone before! Chart new worlds! Explore strange civilizations!

 

[skateluvr]

I think Hanyu needs to work on skating a clean long program before he starts adding in more difficult technical elements.

when did he decide to cut 30 seconds from the long? I don’t understand but read that somewhere in some thread. Doesn’t the LP have to be same length of time for everyone? Explanation please. Does anyone currently do a triple loop after the axel? I honestly don’t think Yuzu can do this. It is so difficult.

I wish him well if he feels he can do a quad axel. It is his body after all. I just don’t believe anyone can do that. But he does have a beautiful triple A courtesy of Orser.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Go for the 4A. He's already got an Olympic championship and a spare, plus a world championship and a spare. Boldly go where no one has ever gone before! Chart new worlds! Explore strange civilizations!

Lol... well it’s his body, so he can go for it if he wants to.

But it’s foolish to do it without supervision of coaches, or to train it in the middle of a competition, like at the GPF.

I do however find it paradoxical how certain people are gleefully encouraging him to try the 4A (and lauded his rebellious wipeout attempts at the GPF) but in the next breath pray for him to remain healthy and uninjured.

If he wants to win he needs stability in his training and layout.

 

[skateluvr]

Go for the 4A. He's already got an Olympic championship and a spare, plus a world championship and a spare. Boldly go where no one has ever gone before! Chart new worlds! Explore strange civilizations!

Really? At 25 with a shortened LP poor stamina he is going to injure himself. He thinks this is how to beat Nathan. His team needs to protect his fragile health and body. It is too late for this feat. Everyone sensible wishes him to be satisfied and healthy. He did very well in the sport and why isn’t someone saying he should try to do insane choreo. Jason is a better example of the way to go. Imo.

 

[Mathman]

when did he decide to cut 30 seconds from the long?

I think they mean that the ISU changed the length of the men's long program from four and a half minutes to four minutes. The last time Hanyu skated this program (Seimei) was in the 2017-18 season when the time was 30 seconds longer.

 

[Mathman]

I do however find it paradoxical how certain people are gleefully encouraging him to try the 4A ... but in the next breath pray for him to remain healthy and uninjured.

Where's the "paradox"? I hope he tries the 4A and (next breath) I pray for him to remain healthy.

Really? At 25 with a shortened LP poor stamina he is going to injure himself.

The men's long program is 30 seconds shorter but has one fewer jumping pass. I don't see why a quad Axel should take more stamina that all the quads he does anyway (or for that matter, than the 3A+3Lo combination that is suggested in this thread.)

Jason is a better example of the way to go. Imo.

Possibly so, but this is advice that Hanyu is not going to take. He will not presennt a program with 0 to 1 quad attempts no matter how much he wants to preserve his poor, feeble body.

 

[skateluvr]

Where's the "paradox"? I hope he tries the 4A and (next breath) I pray for him to remain healthy.



The men's long program is 30 seconds shorter but has one fewer jumping pass. I don't see why a quad Axel should take more stamina that all the quads he does anyway (or for that matter, than the 3A+3Lo combination that is suggested in this thread.)



Possibly so, but this is advice that Hanyu is not going to take. He will not presennt a program with 0 to 1 quad attempts no matter how much he wants to preserve his poor, feeble body.

It is not feeble but it has much mileage. By emulating Jason I mean he can do much better with his choreography. A brand new program with a new style that pushes his footwork section, his spins etc. all the ways Jason racks up points. If he wants to win he could improve still in presentation. But really the OP knows he cannot win against Nathan because the axel loop combo is so difficult.

Interesting attempt but I think Nathan will win by a lot this year. He is at his peak and there is no way he will be outjumped. So unless Yuzu decides to imitate Jason I don’t see how he stays a solid second. Maybe no one can skate like Jason but Hanyu has possible points left on table with spins, footwork, and choreography. This is where he should push. The judges want to see new programs. It is quite stale now. His Sp was great recently but the LP shows he is struggling with his jumps more and more. He has his legacy cemented. I just wish he cared more about what is feasible for him than pie in the sky hopes of a quad axel. Yuzu is elegant and refined and when on he is just stunning. I love to watch him skating when he is showing off his speed and footwork and deep musicality. But I do understand it is hard for him and his fans so very hard to accept his time as number one has passed. His sp score at 4CC showed how much a clean program is worth. I assume that his coaches simply go along with him. I doubt he takes much advice at this point. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he retires at end of this season. Unless of course he gets a reliable quad axel. A Don Quixote dream. I guess his last goal.

Again has any male consistently landed triple axel triple loop currently?

 

[TallyT]

Where's the "paradox"? I hope he tries the 4A and (next breath) I pray for him to remain healthy.

Honestly, real Yuzuru fans are for the most part more scared at the whole thing than the rest of you and way way more than he is. Listen to Tracey when she was asked about it as SC.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Where's the "paradox"? I hope he tries the 4A and (next breath) I pray for him to remain healthy.


The men's long program is 30 seconds shorter but has one fewer jumping pass. I don't see why a quad Axel should take more stamina that all the quads he does anyway (or for that matter, than the 3A+3Lo combination that is suggested in this thread.)



Possibly so, but this is advice that Hanyu is not going to take. He will not presennt a program with 0 to 1 quad attempts no matter how much he wants to preserve his poor, feeble body.

Those are two conflicting thoughts though. The 3A+3L is a weird awkward thing to try that could compromise his program. But the 4A poses a legitimate health danger. Sure I would love to see one landed eventually but I can’t imagine training it being good for his well being. It’s a bit of a pipe dream and based on the GPF recklessness he could really hurt himself without proper supervision.

I was saying how it’s weird that some fans pray for his good health but then cheer for him continually wiping out on 4A attempts. Of course I’d say most are genuinely concerned for his health and do not condone the 4A attempts at the GPF.

What BOP is suggesting, even if still far fetched, is still a safer option than a 4A.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

What BOP is suggesting, even if still far fetched, is still a safer option than a 4A.

I still can't believe people would deny it being safer than a 4A. ( https://twitter.com/phdsports1/status/981807968885858304?lang=en )

 

[skateluvr]

I just edit my post to correct name

And post doesn’t show up. Why is there a delay sometimes? I meant to,say in my post he should emulate Jason in hismSS etc as he wracks up so many points without any quads. Hanyu should be pushing artistic envelope rather than splatting on impossible jump he is trying. I’ll bet new programs next year that are a departure for him will get points just for new track. He is a great artist and much is left unexplored whenever he reuses old programs and even costumes.

Yuzu cannot beat Nathan with jumps but he could show himself to be a superior artist and ride that to Beging, Yuzu likelynuses David Wilson all the time? Next year a total change and new look. Look whatBradie did with her SP? HNyuon any given day can display great skating skills and he absolutely can show us he is capable of different music and cho reography. Maybe he won’t beat Nathan but he will get points for showing he can grow. At 25 the jumps are getting hard. Can you imagine Yuzu skating to very emotional music like Schindler’s list? Only @ handful of men could do such music justice and Hanyu is near the very top of those guys. That doesn’t mean he abandons quads but mean he does only what he is solid at next year. More time for showing off he body lines, speed, footwork. Jason should be his inspiration now not what Nathan can do. I hope he stays skating til Beging and that he floors us next year with two beautiful programs that show he is a special artist. Mao Asada has to give up jump content at times but she was always a amazing. The SP showed that Hanyu is the superior artist on his best days. As we talked in another thread, his fans, his true fans want to see him skate no matter if he slips in the tech mark. I don’t know what pressure he is under in Japan but I am sure his coaches would love to see him be willing to push artistically and stop the quad stuff because no one believes it can be done. Maybe some 14 year old girl from Eteri will do it first. I don’t mean to insult Yuzu fans but this is the way to more points and growth even if he cannot win gold over Nathan. I will always watch as long as he skates jumps or no jumps. That makes me a true fan I think.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I still can't believe people would deny it being safer than a 4A. ( https://twitter.com/phdsports1/status/981807968885858304?lang=en )

Nice combination by Petr!

 

[Yuzuruu]

imaginary UR? I saw an analysis of that 4T on insta that he fell on, and it was very clearly more than 0.25 underrotated. It is a big conspiracy, and he was marked absolutely fairly at 4CC's. I think there is only 1 competition when he was marked unfairly underrotated on one or two of the three underrotations (one of the underrotations was fairly called) at ACI (a challenger series competition).

The marking at 4CC's was fair with regards to Yuzuru.

I meant ACI.

Um...
He clearly had an outside edge on that Flip. You know... it's not an opinion, it's fact.

(...) .

No, he did not have outside edge on the flip. It is a fact.

 

[ancientpeas]

If I were Hanyu I would just work on being as clean as possible. I think he can and should beat Nathan if he skates cleanly.

However I am not Hanyu and he is obviously motivated by different things. I would want to win. He wants to make history.

To me the quad axel is not worth it but if it is what pushes to keep training and working hard then whatever keeps him around in the sport so I can watch him skate is a win to me.