I was a bit surprised that her team has given up on the 3A this far in advance of Nationals, and to me that indicates her plate is full getting the rest of the jumps competition-ready. Nonetheless, she has a decent chance for the podium with two clean programs that include the 3-3, and I don't think a bronze would be a bad result given that she can't go on to Worlds anyway. The problem is that, without a 3A or quad, she has no room for errors like pops, falls, or underrotations that her TES score could absorb in previous seasons. Even if clean, Alysa could still lose to someone like Karen if the latter puts together two good skates.