Sasha was injured at Rostelecom, Plushenko said so in an interview. I wonder why she still went for a million quads then but oh well. At least now they‘re changing the strategy, though I‘m worried that she won‘t be able to win unless the others make mistakes. Without a 3A in the SP, she‘ll go into the FS with at least a 10 points deficit to Kamila, who, I‘m sure will break Kostornaya’s Nationals SP record if the judges are given any chance at doing so. She also has 2 quads in the FS and gets better GOE on spins and steps. Same for Anna. With all that, I don‘t think Sasha can win against either of them if both are clean. Also, that 3Lz+3Lo is still there and it scares me - it‘s been so inconsistent this season. The 4Lz with rippon looks great, though, and that comes from someone who generally dislikes this whole rippon-quad mania going on right now. I hope I‘m wrong about counting Sasha out for the Gold because I‘m really rooting for her.
Anna‘s somewhat of a dark horse, though I find it funny how many are counting her out again. I‘m not a fan of hers but come on, you all must have noticed that whenever people do this, she tends to prove them wrong big time. So, given that it‘s the same tune as the last two seasons... expect her as your National Champion.
More seriously now: Seeing the videos from her training, it looks like she‘ll be going for two quads. (4F+3T and 4F, I guess?) Makes me think that the 1TV interview was filmed early after her coming back to the ice and that she‘s doing much better now. Maybe it‘s part of their strategy, too - create low expectations for Anna and focus the hype on Sasha vs. Kamila only for her to go out and stun everyone. It‘s been known to happen in the past.
Kamila is Kamila, there‘s not much to say about her. If she‘s remotely clean with less than 2 falls, she wins. If not, then the others have a chance.
Liza is a big question mark because she’s had the least time to recover. If she lands three 3As, she‘ll be in the mix. I‘m thinking her goal will be to either beat Sasha again or Anna, to make a case for the Worlds team.
I dreamt tonight that Daria would win Silver (after Sasha and in front of Anna lol), so hopefully it‘s a sign that she‘ll do well. She‘s very consistent this season and while she‘s not doing any ultra-c elements, she tends to get high GOEs on everything. She doesn‘t stand out as much among her rivals (I partly blame the bad programs) but she could play spoiler if one of the others falter. Which, given the risky elements Sasha, Kamila, Anna and Liza will try, isn’t all that unlikely. I definitely predict a podium spot for her, though I think Bronze is the most likely.
Maiia‘s a wildcard. I saw a video of her doing a pretty good 4T but she‘s so inconsistent that you just never know. I guess she does have a shot at the podium but it‘s a veeery long shot. A lot would have to happen and because it involves most of her rivals failing, I‘m not hoping for it at all. Sorry.
I think no one else is in contention, realistically. Though I am hoping for good skates for Nugumanova, Talalaikina and Konstantinova.
I do have to say that my excitement for this competition has gone down vastly by the withdrawal of my favorite two skaters, although I‘ll still be watching and having my fingers crossed for everyone. I know my third favorite, Sasha, doesn‘t have much chance at victory without 3A and more quads but I‘m hoping for her to do well and get a spot on the podium. Come on, girl!!
Lastly, I wish a happy Christmas to everyone celebrating it and hope to see good skating as a present to all of us.
