Which layout does Trusova need to win?

[lariko]

not, the only way she can make up ground on Anna, Kamila, and Alyona (if Alyona gets back to form) is by out-quading them. ("If you fail, fail while daring greatly.") :yes:

Or by waiting them out vs risking too many quads. She was, after all, the only one of them all who maintained athletic form after the summer consistently with the exception of an injury she healed at a seemingly not crazy pace, while both Scherbakova and Valieva made an abrupt change that is extremly taxing on the body, even in that age, even for the athletes, and harder every time it is attempted. there is a two year window before Samodelkina and Akatyeva are in seniors—or, if they rise age after 2022, that gives Trusova even more years if she wishes to pursue Tuktamysheva’s way holding to, say, two ultra-c. Usacheva has the battle for 3A to fight, though her age gives her an advantage.

 

[chasingneverland]

Or by waiting them out vs risking too many quads. She was, after all, the only one of them all who maintained athletic form after the summer consistently with the exception of an injury she healed at a seemingly not crazy pace, while both Scherbakova and Valieva made an abrupt change that is extremly taxing on the body, even in that age, even for the athletes, and harder every time it is attempted.

What does this even mean?? She IS still injured. And what "abrupt change" are you talking about?

 

[Mathman]

Or by waiting them out vs risking too many quads.

Still, I can't imagine any competitive athlete deliberately adopting the strategy, "I'll just lay back and hope that all my rivals regress."

 

[dancelion21]

I got stuck down a rabbithole of comparing scores and compiled a very long post of the many possible scenarios.

If Anna is clean in the SP, she can get 78 (which she got when she was clean at Europeans). Her most ambitious free skate has a layout of 2 quad lutzes and a quad flip (which she was attempting last season, though she never cleanly landed three quads in any comp). Her highest FS skate ever is 162.65 (at GPF, with a 4Lz-3T, a 4Lz<, and a 4F fall). If everything happens cleanly, she can probably get 178 in the free skate (Anna's clean 4Lz at SkAm earned 14.79 total points compared to the 8.81 points at GPF. A 4F with +2 GOE earns 13.2 points compared to 5.5 from a 4F fall, also remove the one point fall deduction, and add some increased PCS for a clean skate). That totals to 256, pretty close to unbeatable.

There's more guesswork for Kamila since she has never competed at an international senior competition. If Kamila is clean in the SP with a triple axel, she will probably score 82 at international comp. Rika can score 82-83 with a clean 3A in the SP, which is what I'm basing Kamila's guess off of. If she's clean with two quad toes in the FP at international competition, she will probably score 166. At Junior Worlds last year, Kamila stepped out of her 4T and scored 152. At RusNats this year, she was clean and scored 174, but we can assume that international judges are not going to give her 9.5 in PCS. More likely, as a senior, Kamila's going to have to build her PCS as all ladies do, probably starting from around 8.75 for clean skates. With this in mind, Kamila's max total score is 248. She's mostly hampered by having an 'easier' quad than Anna and Sasha.

Aliona's limit is pretty clear. With a triple axel in the short, she can score 85. At her clean skate with two triple axels at the GPF last year, she scored 162. That totals to 247. Yes, this can go higher with increased PCS/GOE and RusFed meddling, but that's true for all these girls.

Without a triple axel in the short, Sasha can probably get a 76 (she got 75 at Europeans with a step out on the 2A). In the free program, her highest ever score is 166 with three cleanly landed quads (4Lz, 4T-3T, 4T-Eu-3Sx) and a fall on the 4S, totaling to 242. If Sasha went clean with four quads in the free skate, she would break 174 (the clean 4S alone would add almost seven points in TES, and there would be no -1 fall deduction, not to mention the increase in PCS for a clean skate), which would total to 250. This is still not enough to beat Anna with three quads. If she added a triple axel in the short program, she would be able to score 81. With the 174 from the four clean quads in the free program, Sasha would score 255, narrowly losing out to Anna, but with a margin of only one point, my approximations could easily be wrong depending on the GOE and PCS on the day.

TLDR: At everyone's peak performance, it's a tossup between Anna (two 4Lz, one 4F) and Sasha (one 3A in the SP, two 4T, one 4Lz, one 4S in the FP).
1/2: Anna/Sasha (255-256)
3/4: Kamila/Aliona (247-248)

 

[Mathman]

^

The part about Kamila needing to start the season with 8.75 in PCS and work her way up is very interesting. She is already so famous, and in particular famous for her second mark skills, that international judges might give her a boost even at the beginning of the season. In any case, PCS always go way up for the Olympics as the ISU and the IOC want to put on a big show.

You are giving Sasha almost an equal chance with Anna, but the scenario is for Sasha to do three triple Axels, which is three more than she has done in competition so far.

This is all very exciting. At this stage, it looks like Anna,Kamila and Sasha have the beast chance to make the team, with Anna the closest to being an automatic choice. Aliona has the farthest to go to fully recover and regain her chamoionship form, so best wishes and good luck to her.

 

[dancelion21]

Ah I think I made myself unclear , in the scenario, Sasha only does one triple axel, just in the short program. As for Kamila's PCS, I agree, she is already very famous, and would thus start off stronger, but Aliona was also already famous for her PCS and she started off with averages of about 8.9 across all the categories, I can't see Kamila getting higher than that, and starting with 8.75 is already higher than most for their first junior season. It's higher than Anna at SkAm, who averaged 8.5.

In this scenario, only Aliona has actually ever hit her limit (Grand Prix Final 2019, where she landed all three triple axels). Kamila has done clean free skates with two quad toes, but is yet to do a clean triple axel in the short program at competition. Anna has landed two quads (4Lz and 4F solo at RusNats, two quad lutzes in other programs last year), but she is yet to break the three quad mark. Sasha has landed three quads cleanly before, but is yet to do four quads or land the triple axel in the short program.

 

[silveruskate]

This isn't normal for Sasha but don't try to beat a 3 quad program by Anna. Become consistent with a layout across SP/FS that can beat her 2 quad program. A clean 3 quad program is hard for anyone. If Anna manages it at the Olympics then take the L.

 

[dancelion21]

Yeah I think that's my conclusion after going through all these scores as well. While I can see Sasha getting consistent with the 3A in the short program (she came pretty close several times in the Russian Cup and the practice footage has looked pretty good), I really can't see Sasha landing four quads in the free program. The 4S in particular is really hit or miss for her. Instead, a 3A in the SP along with two 4Lz and a 4T in the FP should be enough to beat Anna with two 4Lz.

 

[NAOTMAA]

This isn't normal for Sasha but don't try to beat a 3 quad program by Anna. Become consistent with a layout across SP/FS that can beat her 2 quad program. A clean 3 quad program is hard for anyone. If Anna manages it at the Olympics then take the L.

Do we know if Eteri is planning on putting a third back into Anna's program? I guess if world's isn't cancelled we possibly might see it there then?

 

[silveruskate]

Do we know if Eteri is planning on putting a third back into Anna's program? I guess if world's isn't cancelled we possibly might see it there then?

We don't but no doubt for the Olympics she will.

 

[Mathman]

This isn't normal for Sasha but don't try to beat a 3 quad program by Anna. Become consistent with a layout across SP/FS that can beat her 2 quad program. A clean 3 quad program is hard for anyone. If Anna manages it at the Olympics then take the L.

Somehow I don't think that Sasha will be content to just smile and take the loss if Anna decides to add another quad.

 

[silveruskate]

Somehow I don't think that Sasha will be content to just smile and take the loss if Anna decides to add another quad.

Nathan Chen came out with the highest BV in 2018 and we saw Hanyu win. No one said anything about taking the loss. Anna adding another quad isn't the same as Anna landing another quad.

 

[DizzyFrenchie]

I see her 3A as the key to Alexandra Trusova's chances for Worlds (I'm not speaking of Olympics because, provided there is no more confinement in Russia affecting figure skating national teams, all of them may evolve a lot; I'm rather convinced Alena Kostornaia may add a 4S for instance, at least solo, though of course I don't know if she will; while she is totally unlikely to have it at Worlds, she will be very lucky if she gets a spot, and if she lands three clean 3A).
Either she gets a good 3A, consistently earning positive GOEs. Then, she can indeed reach 81+ at her short program, particularly if her 3Lz-3Lo comes back to consistency too; and she can add a solo 3A in the FP, and with 3 quads it will be enough to score more than Anna Shcherbakova (if both skate clean) even with their difference in PCS (because Alexandra Trusova's PCS are very good, and Anna Shcherbakova's not perfect yet), and even if Anna Shcherbakova adds a 3T, isn't it?
Or she cannot, then I think she can only hope a mistake from Anna Shcherbakova, even if the latter doesn't add a third quad, because she won't have a big score in the SP, and is likely to try a 4-quad free program (without 3A) with a high probability of fall(s).
Let us add that I would see a higher probability for Alexandra Trusova to land three clean quads, than for Anna Shcherbakova, but I may be wrong. Do you think Anna Shcherbakova will compete at Cup of Russia final? She doesn't need it for a spot at Worlds, but she/her coaches may find it a good practice before Worlds?
Let's not forget Rika Kihira, quite impressive at Nationals. Of course her recovering enough to jump Lutzes will be important but she is already so good.

 

[NAOTMAA]

Has Trusova landed a clean 3A in competition yet? Her best ones I remember were rotated but had messy exit landings and therefore negated any benefit she would have gotten for attempting it. I don't think any score she has received so far has indicated going for it has helped her

 

[sk8kirsty]

A Tredecuple Axel! I'll give you she might be crazy enough to try!

 

[Mathman]

No one said anything about taking the loss..

Oh. Sorry. I thought that when you said that Sasha would just have to "take the L" I thought you meant "loss."

 

[silveruskate]

Oh. Sorry. I thought that when you said that Sasha would just have to "take the L" I thought you meant "loss."

You're right but I mean, no one said anything about Sasha having to "take the loss if Anna decides to add another quad". She wouldn't necessarily lose. Not being BV leader or having the highest possible score is a different mentality, but it worked well for Aliona last year. If Anna has to land 3 quads and a clean program to beat Sasha I would say Sasha has a good chance.

I think she should add a 3A in the SP and a 4T in the FS. That's already a lot to do between now and the Olympics.

 

[NAOTMAA]

I think the reason why it's so hard to decide what layout is best for Trusova is because her GOE lags behind almost as badly as her PCS do.

Skaters like Anna, Kamila and Aloina don't need to have a higher base value then Trusova, they just need to be close enough and then GOE nearly wipes the deficit. Combine it with their PCS and they pass her. Trusova needs a large margin BV to give her a coushin. It's why she's got to keep adding more revolutions to her jumps even if it means taking a much higher gamble. 3 quads and 2 3As just feels crazy but she likely needs it otherwise she will have to depend on being squeeky clean and the others making mistakes which means taking her own fate out of her own hands

 

[esteticlove]

I think the reason why it's so hard to decide what layout is best for Trusova is because her GOE lags behind almost as badly as her PCS do.

This. In my opinion, GOE was also the reason for Kostornaia to be always on the top, not just her triple axels. She was getting very high scores on all of her jumping passes. It is very similar with Kamila. It also reminds me of the situation with Savchenko/Massot in the Olympic season - the didn't have the highest BVs, no quad throws or whatever, but they were very strong on the GOEs and this led them to the gold. Of course, this leaves room for discussion whether the high GOEs of some skaters are real or politically inflated, but fact is that Sasha got a clear massage from the judges over several competitions that her quads alone are not enough. It is interesting, though, that most people concluded that she needs even another quad to defeat that, but don't take into consideration that optimising the already existing jumps (triples as well), and also working on components (not only fancy choreos, but also really skating skills and effortless transitions) might increase her scoring potential just as much as an additional quad. I don't think that she has reached her maximal potential yet, to act as if she is doing her best and this is not enough. For example, I think that her jumps as strong as they are, are suffering a little bit in a similar way as Tuktamisheva's - very strong on the rotation and height, but missing flow out of the jump which kind of ruins it for me. Maybe if they work on longer exits it might change the perspective and make her jumps even more spectacular, so she might get higher points?

 

[anonymoose_au]

I think the reason why it's so hard to decide what layout is best for Trusova is because her GOE lags behind almost as badly as her PCS do.

Exactly! And now it's +5 to -5 it's even harder.

Plus some skaters get huge GOE even for jumps with visible errors, while others get minus GOE for the exact same mistakes (step outs, landing double footed). Where's the rhyme or reason?

For instance Kamila got 5s and 4s across the board for her opening 4T-2T, fair enough it was a beautiful jump.

However one judge gave Sasha a 0 on her 4Lz-3T and she mostly got 3s. Her jump was just as amazing, so what the heck? In fact that 1 judge didn't seem to like Sasha's jumps at all and I'd like to know why? Sometimes if a judge scores wildly different from their peers they will be asked to explain, I wonder if this happened? I mean who knows maybe they have perfectly legitimate reasons, but without knowing the reasoning it's hard to conclude anything except they just don't like Sasha's skating style.