Which layout does Trusova need to win?

[anonymoose_au]

I honestly think we're not really taking into account how PCS are scored.

To be honest I can't work out PCS, but that's because I can say with all sincerity I prefer Sasha's way of skating...like...when people say Aliona, or Anna, or Kamila are SO much better in IN and PE I don't see it. I mean they're smoother, but their skating doesn't speak to me the way Sasha's does.

Of course PCS is not meant to be scored that way, but at the same time, people turn around and talk about how smooth and balletic skaters are automatically more enjoyable or show better skill. That's why I hate the idea some people had that Liza should do more "Danill style" stuff...that's not her and that shouldn't be a requirement to be the best of the best.

I'm sure it's my bias, but to me Sasha was the only one of the original team who truly had her own style, I could see Anna skating to the Angel SP just as much as Aliona, or Aliona doing Firebird. I could not however see Anna doing Big Spender or Aliona doing Daneyrs. Of course I can't see Sasha doing their programs, so maybe that means they have more range. Which I guess means they're more versitile.

 

[treblemakerem]

I think she needs 4 quads but only two types. She needs to really stabilize the two she can do best

4lz3t
4Lz
4t
2a

4teu3sx
3l3lox
3fx

The question is can she get it done. If she can't do 3l3lo consistently after 4 quads. Then the 4lz3t becomes 4lz2t and 3lz3lo becomes 3lz3t

You can only repeat one quad.

 

[chasingneverland]

I think she needs 4 quads but only two types. She needs to really stabilize the two she can do best

4lz3t
4Lz
4t
2a

4teu3sx
3l3lox
3fx

The question is can she get it done. If she can't do 3l3lo consistently after 4 quads. Then the 4lz3t becomes 4lz2t and 3lz3lo becomes 3lz3t

She can't do this layout because you can't repeat two quads - she would zayak then. You can only repeat one quad and a triple or two triples.

 

[anonymoose_au]

She can't do this layout because you can't repeat two quads - she would zayak then. You can only repeat one quad and a triple or two triples.

So yeah, Sasha has to work twice as hard Do the judges really think her GOE and PCS are that dire? I don't get it?

 

[chasingneverland]

So yeah, Sasha has to work twice as hard Do the judges really think her GOE and PCS are that dire? I don't get it?

This isn't a rule because of Sasha...
First of all, it's the same for both men and ladies.
Second of all, it was implemented in 2018. (In fact you could argue it was implemented because of Nathan Chen.)

EDIT: I don't know why you automatically assume it must be a personal slight against someone..

 

[anonymoose_au]

This isn't a rule for Sasha...
First of all, it's the same for both men and ladies.
Second of all, it was implemented in 2018. (In fact you could argue it was implemented because of Nathan Chen.)

I didn't mean the no repeated quad rule, I was thinking more in terms of base value Sasha has to have an enormous TES because as I said apparently her GOE and PCS are rated so far below her competitors.

There's no sugar coating it Kamila beat her with ease and Anna utterly smashed her. Sasha is not allowed to play it safe, but is criticised by others with she doesn't "Why is she trying 4 or 5 quads and the 3A she's just gonna fall". She has no choice, sure she can be clean and is beaten by 10 and 20 points for her trouble!

 

[chasingneverland]

I didn't mean the no repeated quad rule, I was thinking more in terms of base value Sasha has to have an enormous TES because as I said apparently her GOE and PCS are rated so far below her competitors.

There's no sugar coating it Kamila beat her with ease and Anna utterly smashed her. Sasha is not allowed to play it safe, but is criticised by others with she doesn't "Why is she trying 4 or 5 quads and the 3A she's just gonna fall". She has no choice, sure she can be clean and is beaten by 10 and 20 points for her trouble!

Well you can repeat one quad, just not two!

I think her GOE and PCS will go up if she's consistently clean.

I also think it's unfair to say that Sasha has to work harder, persay. The others have quads which they've worked hard for. And they've put more work in other areas like spins. Kamila's are absolutely stunning but Anna's used to be a bit crazy but now they're way more centered.

 

[anonymoose_au]

I think her GOE and PCS will go up if she's consistently clean.

That annoys me because I have heard constantly that Plushy was unfairly given his scores because he happened to be consistent (perhaps the most consistent male skater ever, yes even more than Yuzu).

But now the shoe's on the other foot with their favourites consistency is important?

Technically according to the ISU rules consistency is not a factor. You could skate the worst SP and FS in history one week and the most perfect one next week and then the week after that go back to being a disaster and the judges are meant to judge solely the one performance in front of them. Heck you could skate a disaster SP and a magical FS in the same competition and one should not effect the other!

The fact Sasha had a disaster at Rostelecom should not have any effect on the skates she had at Nats. Apparently, it did though.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

To win at russian nationals she needs this layout:
Sp:
3A, 3Lo, 3Lz(d)+3F.
And in the FP:
4A,
3A,
4S,
3Lz,
4A+3T,
4F+4T
4Lz+EU+4S

And this is just enough to beat Kamila Valieva if Kamila does no quads. If Kamila does a quad, she will beat this layout at nationals.

 

[anonymoose_au]

To win at russian nationals she needs this layout:
Sp:
3A, 3Lo, 3Lz(d)+3F.
And in the FP:
4A,
3A,
4S,
3Lz,
4A+3T,
4F+4T
4Lz+EU+4S

And this is just enough to beat Kamila Valieva if Kamila does no quads. If Kamila does a quad, she will beat this layout at nationals.

It sort of feels that way

I've heard people say that Sasha just doesn't have the style of skating the judges want to see.

One again is "style" in the ISU Rulebook, I'm quite certain it isn't.

It's great when your favourite gets the benefit, not so much when it's the opposite.

 

[Alex65]

To win at russian nationals she needs this layout:
Sp:
3A, 3Lo, 3Lz(d)+3F.
And in the FP:
4A,
3A,
4S,
3Lz,
4A+3T,
4F+4T
4Lz+EU+4S

And this is just enough to beat Kamila Valieva if Kamila does no quads. If Kamila does a quad, she will beat this layout at nationals.

You are repeating 4A and 4S, which is unacceptable. Alas. Sasha apparently no chance to win the champion of Russia.

 

[Magill]

You are repeating 4A and 4S, which is unacceptable. Alas. Sasha apparently no chance to win the champion of Russia.

5A would maybe give her a thin chance...

 

[kolyadafan2002]

You are repeating 4A and 4S, which is unacceptable. Alas. Sasha apparently no chance to win the champion of Russia.

Sorry. If you change the 4S to a 4Lo, and on the unlikely chance that Sasha gets +5 across the board on the 4Lo, then maybe a tiny possibility.

 

[dancelion21]

Sasha would probably have a better chance at international competitions, where Anna's lutz edge is more likely to be called and the GOE isn't as inflated. Still, if Anna does two quads, Sasha would need at least three quads to make up for the PCS gap. In the past, when Sasha did three or more quads, she usually repeated the 4T, which has the lowest BV of all the quads. It would probably be better if she repeated the 4Lz and did one 4T, which are definitely her two most stable quads. Sasha is also the only female skater who can do the ultra-C elements in the second half, like she did with the 4T-eu-3S, so that would also dramatically increase her BV and TES.

4Lz-3T
4Lz
2A
2A
4T-eu-3S
3Lz-3Lo
3Lz

This layout removes the 3F, which has been a problem jump for her since she has a lip which has been consistently called by the tech panel. However, the 3Lz-3Lo has also been more inconsistent this season, so that could be switched out for a 3Lz-3T where the last jump is a solo 3Lo instead.

 

[TripleAxelQueens3]

Honestly, given that Sasha's spins have improved a lot (really good centering and speed especially in the FCSp) and she's been working on performing, I wouldn't expect her PCS and GOE to be at that big a deficit. AND in addition, Sasha has some of the best jumps in context of Russian ladies (obviously Liza T has better ones but still), she has great effortless combos and good height and distance in most of her jumps. Honestly, if GOE was given correctly, her jump GOE should soar above Kamila's (except for the flip) and Anna's. GOE is given for jumps too! I remember somebody in the Russian Ladies thead did a comparison with Sasha's 4 quad layout vs everyone else's 2 quad, and she had like a 20 point lead. Guys, she's not that bad at performing and it's not like she spins with 0.25x speed and constantly trips over her blades because she has horrible skating skills.

 

[Ziotic]

Realistically, only competing domestically this season is really bad for Sasha. RusFed clearly has an agenda, the point gap at nationals was ludicrous and wouldn’t happen internationally.
That being said, in international competitions , she needs the 3A in the short and 3 quads, one in combo in the long.

 

[dancelion21]

I agree, and I think Sasha would be on a far more even playing field in international competitions, where Anna's lutz edge is more likely to be called, and the GOE for Eteri skaters won't be as extreme as at Russian domestic events. At RusNats, Anna broke 80 without a 3A, but at an international competition, she probably would have got something closer to 76-77. Sasha's 75 at RusNats is pretty accurate to what she was getting at international comps last year when she was clean, so there would just be a much smaller gap between the two after the SP. In the FP, with 3 quads and Anna's edges called, the gap would be much smaller than the 18 points that Anna won by at RusNats.

 

[chasingneverland]

Sasha would probably have a better chance at international competitions, where Anna's lutz edge is more likely to be called and the GOE isn't as inflated. Still, if Anna does two quads, Sasha would need at least three quads to make up for the PCS gap. In the past, when Sasha did three or more quads, she usually repeated the 4T, which has the lowest BV of all the quads. It would probably be better if she repeated the 4Lz and did one 4T, which are definitely her two most stable quads. Sasha is also the only female skater who can do the ultra-C elements in the second half, like she did with the 4T-eu-3S, so that would also dramatically increase her BV and TES.

4Lz-3T
4Lz
2A
2A
4T-eu-3S
3Lz-3Lo
3Lz

This layout removes the 3F, which has been a problem jump for her since she has a lip which has been consistently called by the tech panel. However, the 3Lz-3Lo has also been more inconsistent this season, so that could be switched out for a 3Lz-3T where the last jump is a solo 3Lo instead.

I would really like to see this layout for Sasha! (Although I think they will try to get her 4S and 4F back as well so they have more options.)
Also, Anna's edge has only been called at one (1) competition, so I wouldn't expect that to be called, especially as Russia's number 1. (Under-rotations maybe yes but that applies to Sasha and others as well. Also under-rotations (and unclear edges for that matter) DON'T require a restricted final GOE so you can actually get positive GOE on it.)

However, I think Sasha's layout will depend on what Anna and Rika and Aliona do and what she can get stabilized. (And that goes both ways..what they do will somewhat depend on what they can stabilize and get consistent and what Sasha does.)

Here's Anna's upgraded layout from last year (she now also has a 4F-3T and although she can't repeat both the 4Lz and 4F it does give her more options as the difference between a 4Lz and 4F isn't that much):
4Lz-3T
4F
2A
4Lz
3Lz-3Lo
3F-1Eu-3S
3Lz

That would actually mean Sasha would probably be working out of a slight deficit to Anna already despite both having 3 quads and one backloaded because the 4F is worth more than a 4T and Anna is replacing the 2nd double axel with a triple so Anna makes up the difference.

Here's Rika's layout:
4S
3A-2T
3F
3A
3F-3T
2A-1Eu-3S
3Lo
She's also looked at blackloading a 3A.

 

[chasingneverland]

I agree, and I think Sasha would be on a far more even playing field in international competitions, where Anna's lutz edge is more likely to be called, and the GOE for Eteri skaters won't be as extreme as at Russian domestic events. At RusNats, Anna broke 80 without a 3A, but at an international competition, she probably would have got something closer to 76-77. Sasha's 75 at RusNats is pretty accurate to what she was getting at international comps last year when she was clean, so there would just be a much smaller gap between the two after the SP. In the FP, with 3 quads and Anna's edges called, the gap would be much smaller than the 18 points that Anna won by at RusNats.

Actually Anna's SP has scored around 78 internationally (78.25 SB at GPF). I also would expect a PCS jump of a point (maybe 2). So no, not breaking 80 but not 76 either. Probably like a 79.

And Anna's edges weren't called in her last two international competitions, even with three quads (even when she fell). Will it be closer? Of course. But it's not like Anna's scores are going to plummet either.

 

[Lzbee]

I agree, and I think Sasha would be on a far more even playing field in international competitions, where Anna's lutz edge is more likely to be called, and the GOE for Eteri skaters won't be as extreme as at Russian domestic events. At RusNats, Anna broke 80 without a 3A, but at an international competition, she probably would have got something closer to 76-77. Sasha's 75 at RusNats is pretty accurate to what she was getting at international comps last year when she was clean, so there would just be a much smaller gap between the two after the SP. In the FP, with 3 quads and Anna's edges called, the gap would be much smaller than the 18 points that Anna won by at RusNats.

I really wouldn't count on Anna's Lutz edges being called for the foreseeable future. The only time it was ever called was at GP China last year.