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- Dec 31, 2019
Exactly. And as Russia's number 1 (rather than number 2) I would expect calls to be even less likely.
Which layout does Trusova need to win?
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Anna has been Russia #1 for the past three seasons, and yet Aliona beat her in each outing internationally.
That being said, I can’t see Anna breaking 80 in the SP without a 3A as her GOE will certainly not be inflated as in Russia, especially as Russia seems to want to back Kamilla for Oly gold.
That being said, I can’t see Anna breaking 80 in the SP without a 3A as her GOE will certainly not be inflated as in Russia, especially as Russia seems to want to back Kamilla for Oly gold.
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- Mar 20, 2019
Add a 4T in the FS and a 3A in the SP to make her favourite.
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- Oct 14, 2019
Yeah, with a 3A in the SP (which Sasha got close to landing this season) and one extra 4T in the free, she can probably beat Anna at international competitions.
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- Jun 6, 2019
No, if Kamila is skating against Sasha, then Sasha's PCS will be -100points with a clean skate and Kamilas will be 500 even thought that's impossible.
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- Oct 14, 2017
Here’s the layouts Trusova needs:
SP
3A
3F
3Lz+3T
FS
4Lz
4T+3T
3A
3F
4T+1Lo+3S
3Lz+3Lo
3Lz
These are only good if she can get the triple axel though.
SP
3A
3F
3Lz+3T
FS
4Lz
4T+3T
3A
3F
4T+1Lo+3S
3Lz+3Lo
3Lz
These are only good if she can get the triple axel though.
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- Nov 16, 2014
I don't know whether this is a valid topic for discussion.
For the first time Trusova impressed me with her beauty in the SP, and she could also act as a fearless fighter with the change of setting. Her successful performances at the Nationals undoubtedly prove that she is not a wooden jumper but a very beautiful young lady with strong plasticity. I don't care whether or not she could win with some other layout at home, but her collapsing under the "QUAD" pressure will be the last thing I want to see. For me, the great improvement in her skating is the most commendable thing at this stage. She will definitely move forward with victories with her new team. I do not have the slightest doubt about that.
For the first time Trusova impressed me with her beauty in the SP, and she could also act as a fearless fighter with the change of setting. Her successful performances at the Nationals undoubtedly prove that she is not a wooden jumper but a very beautiful young lady with strong plasticity. I don't care whether or not she could win with some other layout at home, but her collapsing under the "QUAD" pressure will be the last thing I want to see. For me, the great improvement in her skating is the most commendable thing at this stage. She will definitely move forward with victories with her new team. I do not have the slightest doubt about that.
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- Dec 31, 2019
Anna has NOT been Russia's number 1 for the past 3 seasons.
Yes, she's won RusNat's 3 years in a row; however,
(1) The first year she won she then proceeded to place 3rd at RusNats juniors a month and a bit later. (So you could argue there was no clear number 1 between the three) However, that year Anna, Sasha, and Aliona were juniors internationally so they were NOT Russia's top 3, as they weren't age eligible internationally yet. That year Alina was number 1 and Evgenia number 2 (probably.) That's also the year with the whole Evgenia/Liza World decision and the year Sofia won Euros (and Alina won Worlds).
(2) The second year she won she went in as a clear underdog. Aliona was Russia's number 1 last year and the one behind whom RusFed placed their strongest backing.
People need to understand none of these skates are taking place in a vacuum and it's always v obvious who RusFed is placing their backing behind. That person is number 1. (For the record, every other federation does the same thing.)
EDIT: I don't see Anna breaking 80 either but she's probably getting 79 (if clean). (She got 78.37 at GPF and 77.95 at Euros last year already. With a PCS increase she'll probably score low to mid 79.)
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- Apr 17, 2018
Anna is number 1 but I feel like in Russian ladies, the top are always tied. Like the first year she won, she and Sasha weren't super consistent so Alyona could beat them if they made mistakes, and she could beat Sasha if she went clean and Sasha had a mistake, and Sasha could beat them if she was clean. The second season, there was this same dynamic. And now, it's pretty much a tie between her, Kamila and Sasha because honestly, let's be real, an international judging panel would've scored them extremely similar to each other especially in the FS (or at least should). Kamila with a 3A and 4T+3T could beat her, Sasha with clean normal tech content could also beat her, but they are both inconsistent and Anna has grown super consistent with especially the 4F.
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- Dec 31, 2019
Yeah, I would agree with that. I think there's 1 person RusFed is MOST strongly behind, at it tends to be the one they think will ALSO score will internationally.
However, they're also more than willing to back whoever is clean. (They are more than willing to treat everyone as expendable.)
I also think that while they should be closer internationally then they were here, even last year Anna's PCS were higher than Sasha's (even when neither were clean.) Anna's was about a point higher in the SP and about 4 higher in the FS.
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- Jun 21, 2003
I don't know why, but that prediction tickled me.
Low to mid 79. I personally hold out hope for hope for mid to upper 79 for the stalwart champion!- Joined
- Dec 31, 2019
Haha that's what I'm hoping for too!I don't know why, but that prediction tickled me.
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- Jun 21, 2003
Back to the question of what Trusova's optimal layout should be ... If she gets a reliable triple Axel, that's a game-changer. If not, the only way she can make up ground on Anna, Kamila, and Alyona (if Alyona gets back to form) is by out-quading them. ("If you fail, fail while daring greatly.") :yes:
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- Dec 31, 2019
I actually think consistency will go a long way towards Sasha winning.
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- Feb 22, 2014
Is that fair though?
Like in all seriousness, if consistency is important shouldn't the ISU admit that? I've always found it weird that judges often go to pre-competition practices, I think I even once read an article where a judge admitted that how an athlete did at these practices effected their view of the athlete! Like if the athlete fell or popped a lot of jumps that would be in the back of their mind during the actual competition and they'd be more nitpicky. Did I dream that?
With regards to Sasha I'm not sure consistency will help without increasing tech if the margin is 20 points. I believe it would take 2 3As to make that up and that's with positive GOE if it's negative she will still lose out.
I kinda agree with Mathman, if you're not gonna win clean might as well go down giving it a red hot go!
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- Dec 31, 2019
Well if they do it to everyone, potentially fair?
Also judges are human. They have biases. They have expectations of what they're about to see before a skater starts skating, even when they don't mean to. (That doesn't just apply to skating btw.) You can't eliminate that. You do have to acknowledge it but most of it is subconscious.
It's why standing and scoring within a federation (domestically) plays a role internationally. Because the federations "tell" the judges what to look for. It's also why crowds play a role. Because judges are human and subject to emotion. It's also why reputation matters so much. Because it let's judges know what to expect and why it's so hard to change that perception. It's also why some skaters continually get under rotations/edge calls, even after fixing them or improving them - because the judges expect to see them so "look" for them.
Is it necessarily fair? No, but it's the same for everyone - good or bad - and an artifact of having human scoring systems.
(Note: It's also partially why I think Kamila scored so well at nationals. Because they expected her to do well - she's the expected heir and had the highest Russian cup score (when clean). It's also why after her FS they scored her as if they'd just seen the winning skate. Because they expected it and she delivered and to some extent they were reacting to the crowd. And they didn't expect it from Anna or Sasha, for that matter, because the last time they saw them Anna was struggling to breathe after the SP and Sasha had melted down (due to injury but that doesn't really help perception wise) at Rostelecom.
That's why I think they did more at RusNats to help themselves than Kamila did. Kamila did as expected and hoped for (pretty much). Anna and Sasha exceeded expectations.
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- Jun 21, 2003
I think we might be overanalysing the consistency thing. Usually in figure skating, "consistency" means, don't fall down on your jumps. Obviously a skater at any level will score higher if she is "consistent" in the execution of her elements than if she is hit and miss.
My wish for Sasha -- do 5 quads and land them consistently.
My wish for Sasha -- do 5 quads and land them consistently.
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- Joined
- Feb 22, 2014
On the face of it I guess, unless you happen to be better under the pressure of competition then while practicing. Or if the judges only watch some skaters practice and make their judgements from there
The ISU though likes to pretend their judges are totally impartial and that judges and their decisions can't be questioned (I'm not even thinking of current events in Russia, this has happened for ages - I find it bizarre that in some sports questioning a legitimately wrong decision - like a goal or not in football - gets you a fine. What's that all about?)
Although if this is generally understood then the Japanese Figure Skating Fed are really shooting themselves in the foot! Or are they clinging to the forlorn hope that the international judges will follow their lead one day
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- Jun 21, 2003
Aboout judges watching practices, I have noticed that the most-seasoned veterans treat a public practice as a performance. They bow to the audience, pay attention to where the judges are sitting, smile, flirt and the whole ball of wax.
(Michelle Kwan won many a practice, whatever the outcome of the actual competition turned out to be.)
(Michelle Kwan won many a practice, whatever the outcome of the actual competition turned out to be.)
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- Dec 31, 2019
Yeah although it's not like the judges aren't allowed to watch the skaters. And the skaters watch each other practice too (as do their coaches.)On the face of it I guess, unless you happen to be better under the pressure of competition then while practicing. Or if the judges only watch some skaters practice and make their judgements from there
The ISU though likes to pretend their judges are totally impartial and that judges and their decisions can't be questioned (I'm not even thinking of current events in Russia, this has happened for ages - I find it bizarre that in some sports questioning a legitimately wrong decision - like a goal or not in football - gets you a fine. What's that all about?)
Although if this is generally understood then the Japanese Figure Skating Fed are really shooting themselves in the foot! Or are they clinging to the forlorn hope that the international judges will follow their lead one day
And that's somewhat psychological as well.
And of course they do. Because that's the ideal. It's just hard to implement in reality, even with everything else being equal. Having politics on top only makes it more difficult to remove prior perceptions and makes it even less objective.
Hmm, Japan is interesting. They tend to not inflate their skaters scores at all for the most part but there are exceptions - Rika and Kaori were scored really well - comparatively.
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