2020-21 Russian Ladies' Figure Skating

[NadezhdaNadya]

If I were Trusova I'd be practicing run-throughs of an Olympic program with most quads possible (4 quads reasonably), then when the important competitions come I'd react to Anna if she skated before me.
If Anna fell once i'd remove a quad and shoot for three.
If Anna fell twice I'd only jump 2 quads.
If I were skating before Anna I'd play it midway and shoot for three quads, and hope that Anna fell once.

The SP 3A depends wildly on Trusova's future consistency with it. If the jump is 90% in practice, then I'd attempt. If not, then the upside isn't worth the massive loss of points from falling/downgrading.

Anna has never landed 3 quads in competition. She was closest to achieving this in 2019 at Nationals where she landed 2 quad lutzes and had 4F with a step out. And the maximum quads Sasha has landed in one competition - 4. But usually 3 are just enough for her.
Nathan Chen - he landed 6 quads at Olympics 2018. He repeated two quads - flip and toe loop. He could have landed 7 quads - 2 toe loops, 2 flips, one salchow, one loop and one lutz. But he did not! Probably because of stamina issues.
Yuzuru - once he landed 5 quads in competition. But he could not land his 3A-3A after that. For him 4 quads are just enough. (Hypothetically he could have landed 6 quads at Olympics if he was not injured - 2 toe loops, 2 salchows, one loop and one lutz.)
Question - I noticed that at Olympics 2018 both Yuzuru and Nathan were repeating two quads and both of them did not repeat any triples. So even then quads and triples were under the same counting rule, right? Repeat 2 quads or 1 quad and 1 triple or repeat 2 triples.
But now you either repeat 2 triples or 1 quad and 1 triple...???

 

[Tonight's the Night]

The thing about height is its not really the angle that matters but the amount of vertical velocity you can get at takeoff. The angle is really the difference between vertical and horisontial speed but the horisontial speed has no real impact of the air time. The reason it matters in the case of the projectile is that it is assumed that the total launching velocity is the same regardless of angle and then the higher the angle the more vertical velocity. But that assumtion doesnt hold up for skating.

Therefore a skater that comes into the jump with great speed will use some of that to get vertical speed but still have some left over. Where as a skater with low incoming speed might use almost all of that to gain vertical speed. It is in these cases completely possible for these two skaters to take off with the same vertical velocity and therefore get the same height but the first skater will have a much lower angle than the second due to having more horisontial speed.

Got it -- thanks for taking the time to explain yourself.

So one consequence would be that someone might think a 3A like Liza T.'s is much higher than it is just because she also doesn't have the horizontal component to go with it; the eye just sees the steep curve and assumes height. Though we love to see that horizontal component as well, and from what I can tell judges do too.

But there is still of course the possibility that someone can have lower height (and thus less air time) but still get her spins in. Obviously someone like Liza Berestovskaya jumping a 4T will have to be spinning faster, given her shorter air time.

 

[chasingneverland]

Anna has never landed 3 quads in competition. She was closest to achieving this in 2019 at Nationals where she landed 2 quad lutzes and had 4F with a step out. And the maximum quads Sasha has landed in one competition - 4. But usually 3 are just enough for her.
Nathan Chen - he landed 6 quads at Olympics 2018. He repeated two quads - flip and toe loop. He could have landed 7 quads - 2 toe loops, 2 flips, one salchow, one loop and one lutz. But he did not! Probably because of stamina issues.
Yuzuru - once he landed 5 quads in competition. But he could not land his 3A-3A after that. For him 4 quads are just enough. (Hypothetically he could have landed 6 quads at Olympics if he was not injured - 2 toe loops, 2 salchows, one loop and one lutz.)
Question - I noticed that at Olympics 2018 both Yuzuru and Nathan were repeating two quads and both of them did not repeat any triples. So even then quads and triples were under the same counting rule, right? Repeat 2 quads or 1 quad and 1 triple or repeat 2 triples.
But now you either repeat 2 triples or 1 quad and 1 triple...???

1. That is landing 3 quads. A step out still counts as landing.

2. Yes, since 2018 you can only repeat two triples or one quad and one triple.

 

[NadezhdaNadya]

Off topic: Is it true that no man has ever landed two quad lutzes in a FS?
One person on a Russian figure skating forum said this.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

Off topic: Is it true that no man has ever landed two quad lutzes in a FS?
One person on a Russian figure skating forum said this.

Skate America 2017 Nathan chen for one. I'm sure other people too

 

[Rus Skating World]

Skipping forwards, what is the absolute maximum possibility on jumps for the skaters come Olympic time?

Anna: 4Lz, 4F, 3A
Sasha: 4Lz 4S, 4T, 3A, 4F
Aliona: 3A, 4S
Kamila: 4T, 3A, 4Lz?
Daria: 3A, any quads?
Maria: 4T, 4S, 3A?

4Lz for Valieva is a massive stretch, but if she's learning any new jump it has to be 4Lz.

Anna: 4Lz, 4F, 3A
I think I’ve heard her saying (in the recent interview for the Olympic channel if I’m not mistaken) that she’s trying 3A but it’s far from stable so we won’t see it soon, however she may add it for the Olympic season.

Also, she said (in the interview for the 1st channel) that she planned 3 quads layout for the Russian Nats before her pneumonia and now it’s her plan for this season worlds if it’s held this season.

Sasha: 4Lz, 4F, 4S, 4T, 3A
4Lo is also possible, however it’s not so advantageous in terms of extra points considering the additional risks from adding 1 more quad in her arsenal. I guess her main motivation for 4Lo is to be the first in history, so it will depend on whether any other girl (You Young, Samodelkina?) lands it on any international cup before her.

Aliona: 3A and 4S as a max I think

Kamila: 4T, 3A, 4S
I agree that 4Lz would probably be problematic for her taking into account her performance on 3Lz this season. However, I have an interesting idea which is only my guess and nothing more. There were a lot of talks about ‘flutzes’ in Eteri’s team. In the meanwhile, we’ve seen Anna started with 4F (instead of her 4Lz) this season and all the Kamila’s troubles with 3Lz (last time she fell she told that she was overthinking what was the correct thing to do and ‘did nothing’ in her own words). All that makes me wonder what if Eteri is changing/correcting the lutz technics in her group right now? It may not be visible right away but it could be a wise thing to do. Again, it’s only may thoughts.

Daria: 3A, 4S or 4T as a max

Maiia: 4T, 4S, 3A

EDIT: And a word about Liza T. Her max is 3A, 4T and 4S (she has been already working on both). In fact she mentioned that if she can recover well she would replace her one of 3As in FS by some quad already this season in February-March (I think she's willing very much to get a spot on the national team). I think it would be extremely hard for her this season but the next one, who knows... Personally, I would love to see her landing a quad.

 

[Amei]

If I were Trusova I'd be practicing run-throughs of an Olympic program with most quads possible (4 quads reasonably), then when the important competitions come I'd react to Anna if she skated before me.
If Anna fell once i'd remove a quad and shoot for three.
If Anna fell twice I'd only jump 2 quads.
If I were skating before Anna I'd play it midway and shoot for three quads, and hope that Anna fell once.

The SP 3A depends wildly on Trusova's future consistency with it. If the jump is 90% in practice, then I'd attempt. If not, then the upside isn't worth the massive loss of points from falling/downgrading.

The problem with trying that game plan is that she won't have many competitions to risk 'trying' this, and as chasingneverland said, it's very reactionary to what someone else does and requires her to make on the fly changes in a competition. Her issues, less Rostelecom Cup this year have appeared largely mental, she's fine in practice then has issues in competition. I don't know if trying to make changes and perpetually changing her layout is the best. I think an ideal strategy quad-wise would be for her to keep the quad lutz as her repeat quad since it's worth the most points, flip, and then her quad toe in combination back-loaded; she really should ditch the salchow - that was her problematic jump last year having errors on 3 of 4 competition attempts: Skate Canada - fall, Rostelecom Cup - under-rotated and fall, GPF - popped into a double; even if she gets an edge call on the flip as long as its landed she might still do better point-wise than the salchow since the salchow is worth 9.7 points vs. 11 points for the flip.

 

[Mathman]

The problem with trying that game plan is that she won't have many competitions to risk 'trying' this, and as chasingneverland said, it's very reactionary to what someone else does and requires her to make on the fly changes in a competition.

Plan your skate, skate your plan. Let the others adjust to you.

When you start second-guessing yourself -- Anna only did two quads, so I can back off my planned third quad and just do a triple -- that's an invitation to start falling on your triples, Zayaking, and popping.

 

[colormyworld240]

If I were Trusova I'd be practicing run-throughs of an Olympic program with most quads possible (4 quads reasonably), then when the important competitions come I'd react to Anna if she skated before me.
If Anna fell once i'd remove a quad and shoot for three.
If Anna fell twice I'd only jump 2 quads.
If I were skating before Anna I'd play it midway and shoot for three quads, and hope that Anna fell once.

I think changing layouts based on how someone else (especially your direct competition in something as high pressure as an Olympics) is a bad idea, even moreso if the mental game is the biggest challenge. It's a much better mindset to do your best layout in training and believe that the medal will depend on yourself as opposed to how many times someone else falls.

If the plan is what you put above, if Anna skates before her, Sasha will already be thrown off her mental game as her whole plan to win largely revolved around skating after Anna. Or if Anna falls/doesn't fall as expected. It's much better to know that you're in control in that you have to do your best, rather than switching things last minute based on your competitor that you have no control over. With the crazy nerves and emotions at the Olympics, the athletes need as much stability as they can get.

 

[Flying Feijoa]

So one consequence would be that someone might think a 3A like Liza T.'s is much higher than it is just because she also doesn't have the horizontal component to go with it; the eye just sees the steep curve and assumes height. Though we love to see that horizontal component as well, and from what I can tell judges do too.

It might be more accurate to say that a 3A with a greater horizontal component but equal vertical component to Liza's might not look as strikingly high as hers due to visual perception despite reaching the same height. However, hers is actually quite high in reality (I can't quite remember, maybe there's some IceScope data around).

If we compare jumps with the same resultant velocity (vector addition of x and y components), then jumps with a lower takeoff angle would have less height. However, since her resultant velocity entering the jump is less than most other 3A jumpers, it stands to reason their y component would be similar to hers. Since air time depends only on maximum vertical height, if their rotational velocity is similar to hers then they would also need the same amount of height. If they rotate faster, they can afford to jump lower.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

The problem with trying that game plan is that she won't have many competitions to risk 'trying' this, and as chasingneverland said, it's very reactionary to what someone else does and requires her to make on the fly changes in a competition. Her issues, less Rostelecom Cup this year have appeared largely mental, she's fine in practice then has issues in competition. I don't know if trying to make changes and perpetually changing her layout is the best. I think an ideal strategy quad-wise would be for her to keep the quad lutz as her repeat quad since it's worth the most points, flip, and then her quad toe in combination back-loaded; she really should ditch the salchow - that was her problematic jump last year having errors on 3 of 4 competition attempts: Skate Canada - fall, Rostelecom Cup - under-rotated and fall, GPF - popped into a double; even if she gets an edge call on the flip as long as its landed she might still do better point-wise than the salchow since the salchow is worth 9.7 points vs. 11 points for the flip.

The only change it requires is replacing quads with triple jumps which isn't as difficult as it seems.

 

[Arbitrary]

Interesting to mention Sasha Trusova'd stopped the active training few days ago and left the camp for vacations (seems like Egypt or similar).
I was expecting her to undergo medical and recuperating procedures.

 

[Shayuki]

Indeed, I agree with you and draculus that air time varies directly with height; it would have to, given that the only downward force is gravity, right? But the amount of height you get depends on the incoming angle: the greater the angle, the greater the height -- and thus the greater the air time.

Well, not really, no. What matters is the height of the jump. We can assume that every skater is going to use all their force on upwards acceleration, so the angle itself is mostly determined by the entry speed. The more vertical velocity generated, the higher the jump. And that's it.

It might be more accurate to say that a 3A with a greater horizontal component but equal vertical component to Liza's might not look as strikingly high as hers due to visual perception despite reaching the same height. However, hers is actually quite high in reality (I can't quite remember, maybe there's some IceScope data around).

If we compare jumps with the same resultant velocity (vector addition of x and y components), then jumps with a lower takeoff angle would have less height. However, since her resultant velocity entering the jump is less than most other 3A jumpers, it stands to reason their y component would be similar to hers. Since air time depends only on maximum vertical height, if their rotational velocity is similar to hers then they would also need the same amount of height. If they rotate faster, they can afford to jump lower.

Vertical and horizontal acceleration are indepentent from one another. While in the air, there's the vertical acceleration downwards caused by gravity. And that's what determines the jump duration. And because that's the only force affecting the skater, air time also directly correlates with jump height(and horizontal distance or velocity don't matter). Tuktamysheva's 3A wasn't that high IIRC. The reason Tuktamysheva's 3A looks so big is because she herself is so short.

If I were Trusova I'd be practicing run-throughs of an Olympic program with most quads possible (4 quads reasonably), then when the important competitions come I'd react to Anna if she skated before me.
If Anna fell once i'd remove a quad and shoot for three.
If Anna fell twice I'd only jump 2 quads.
If I were skating before Anna I'd play it midway and shoot for three quads, and hope that Anna fell once.

The SP 3A depends wildly on Trusova's future consistency with it. If the jump is 90% in practice, then I'd attempt. If not, then the upside isn't worth the massive loss of points from falling/downgrading.

It's far more valuable developing routine and feel for the program than it is to optimize individual jumping layouts. And that strat seems weird, too. So if Anna falls twice but you only jump 2 quads and fall on both, what will you do? Skate to the end and lose? If you fell on both of the quads, you'd still have the 2 quads left to try and recover. Seems like a poor plan to me in any case.

 

[Jontor]

The only change it requires is replacing quads with triple jumps which isn't as difficult as it seems.

It gets complicated though. In Sasha's case, with her current two 4Lzs, she can't change one of the quads to a 3Lz because she is already doing two 3Lzs. And let's say she added a 3rd quad, a 4T, she can't change that either into a 3T as she is already repeating the 4lz and the 3Lz. Changing the program as you go easily gets you into complicated Zayak land.

This happened to Anna at Stage Three when her 3Loop combo didn't work. She improvised and changed it into a 3T instead, and got immediately Zayak'd and the 3T didn't count.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

It gets complicated though. In Sasha's case, with her current two 4Lzs, she can't change one of the quads to a 3Lz because she is already doing two 3Lzs. And let's say she added a 3rd quad, a 4T, she can't change that either into a 3T as she is already repeating the 4lz and the 3Lz. Changing the program as you go easily gets you into complicated Zayak land.

This happened to Anna at Stage Three when her 3Loop combo didn't work. She improvised and changed it into a 3T instead, and got immediately Zayak'd and the 3T didn't count.

It takes a certain skater to think after making mistakes. it's not a stratergy for everybody - but I've met many people (who jump quads not triples) who are able to change their jump layout on the fly.

But at the end of the day there are things that can be done to make it work, e.g:
4S
4T
4Lz+3T
4Lz
2A+eu+3S
3F
3Lz+3Lo

Here she isn't repeating any jumps other than the quad Lutz. It's exceptionally easy for her to change any one of the quads into a triple without having any difficulties.
For example if Anna sherbakova falls on the 4F, she can turn her 4S into a 3S and still have a 3 quad really difficult program. Or a 4Lz into a 3Lz. Or even a 4T into a 3T I suppose. But this sort of layout presents a large amount of options. Of course, she may want to stagger the quads throughout the program generally, but with enough training to account for mistakes I'm pretty sure she'd be capable of planning to change a 4Lz into a 3Lz with pre-determined thinking, or a 4S into a 3S.

 

[renebaebae]

I think Trusova should scrap that 4S. It's just too unstable for her. She can continue it after the Olympics. I know she's getting edge calls now on the flip but I think she should do a 4F or a 4Lo to replace that 4S.

She can do a layout of

4Lz + 3T
4Lz
2A
4F/4Lo
4T + EU +3S
3Lz + 3Lo
3Lz

This was she is still keeping the potential edge call to a minimum of one and she probably won't get a negative GOE for it anyway. This is my dream program for her and I genuinely think that she can skate it clean. She can also substitute the 3rd quad for a triple if she wants to do a 3 quad program instead.

 

[Amei]

I think Trusova should scrap that 4S. It's just too unstable for her. She can continue it after the Olympics. I know she's getting edge calls now on the flip but I think she should do a 4F or a 4Lo to replace that 4S.

She can do a layout of

4Lz + 3T
4Lz
2A
4F/4Lo
4T + EU +3S
3Lz + 3Lo
3Lz

This was she is still keeping the potential edge call to a minimum of one and she probably won't get a negative GOE for it anyway. This is my dream program for her and I genuinely think that she can skate it clean. She can also substitute the 3rd quad for a triple if she wants to do a 3 quad program instead.

I believe its been said she was pushing for more quads last season, and was part of the reason she left Eteri, given that I think its unlikely she does less than 4 quads unless she's injured.

 

[renebaebae]

Is it just me or do y'all find it weird when top skaters lose levels in spins and steps and get low GOEs in choreo sequence consistently?

Like the rules are known to everyone. The bullets are there. Hit them and you'll get the levels but some skaters are just "okay" with consistently losing levels??? Regarding steps, can the choreographer, skater and coach not see that a certain step sequence does not have the difficulty of a level 4?? I don't think this is rocket science. It's especially upsetting because these skaters are perfectly capable of doing level 4 sequences. I think choreo sequence probably is the most upsetting because it's literally just free points. Just do a basic spiral in 3 different ways or an ina Bauer and bam, +2 goe. Why do they just choose to lose points?

 

[renebaebae]

I believe its been said she was pushing for more quads last season, and was part of the reason she left Eteri, given that I think its unlikely she does less than 4 quads unless she's injured.

Yh that's understandable. The 4th quad doesn't have to be the 4S if it continues to be so unstable for her, that's what I meant.

 

[kolyadafan2002]

I think you're forgetting about Rika, Kamila and Aliona in your calculations.

Kamila or Aliona. Not both, when it comes to Olympics at least.