2020-21 US Women's Figure Skating

[NAOTMAA]

Agreed. Nothing has changed as far as expecting the U.S. Olympic teanm to be Alysa and Bradie.

But Karen can earn her own spot by helping the U.S. to qualify three ladies.

Where do you stand on Mariah? Does she have to win nationals next year or is a simple return to last year's form and a silver enough for her?

 

[readernick]

So... conclusion!

RusNats: The top three girls all had the skate of their lives. But internationally I would lower Anna and Kamila 10 points, Sasha about 5 points.

JapNats: All skaters up about 5-15 points

US Nats: Top skaters down 20 points.

Anyone agree?

No. I think this is a conclusion that only you have come to and the facts don't support it .

Bradie only scored 10 points higher than her international best here. There was the ignored UR in the SP, so perhaps her score is 10-13 points higher than she would have gotten internationally but not 20 points higher.

Amber has never skated programs of similar strength before internationally but I would say internationally her SP would have scored around 67 ( which she has scored before) and her LP would probably score around 135 because she deserved high GOE on those jumps and they were truly rotated. So, likely she was also overscored by around 10- 13 points.

I would say the overscoring at Russian nationals was more intense for Anna and Kamila when you consider the insane PCS they were given. Anna scored 24 points higher than her personal best internationally. Kamila scored 27 points higher than her personal best internationally. Anna did skate better here than she ever had internationally and Kamila's LP was better than previous LPs ( but not her SP) But, they weren't almost 30 points better. Kamila deserves the GOE on her spins they are +5, but none of the other elements those ladies perform deserve +5 and yet they got that kind of GOE. Not to mention the ignored edge calls and URs ( in Anna's case..) Sasha was probably overscored by 10 points when you consider the UR 4Lz in the free and the rather generous PCS.

At JN, the only overscored skater was Kaori Sakamoto. Rika scored exactly 1 point higher than her international best and this was a stronger outing. She landed a quad. Kaori scored essentially the same score as she has internationally but this was a bit weaker of a performance so I would say she was overscored by 5-10 points when you considered her ignored flutz in the SP.

In the end, all this means is that domestic scoring is stupid. It isn't worth getting mad about unless domestic politics favor one skater/ coach over another. Which unfortunately they do in all the countries mentioned above.....

 

[bubblecherry]

Beautiful 2A https://twitter.com/beth_gifs/status/1349947485884723201?s=21

 

[flanker]

No. I think this is a conclusion that only you have come to and the facts don't support it .

Bradie only scored 10 points higher than her international best here. There was the ignored UR in the SP, so perhaps her score is 10-13 points higher than she would have gotten internationally but not 20 points higher.

Amber has never skated programs of similar strength before internationally but I would say internationally her SP would have scored around 67 ( which she has scored before) and her LP would probably score around 135 because she deserved high GOE on those jumps and they were truly rotated. So, likely she was also overscored by around 10- 13 points.

I would say the overscoring at Russian nationals was more intense for Anna and Kamila when you consider the insane PCS they were given. Anna scored 24 points higher than her personal best internationally. Kamila scored 27 points higher than her personal best internationally. Anna did skate better here than she ever had internationally and Kamila's LP was better than previous LPs ( but not her SP) But, they weren't almost 30 points better. Kamila deserves the GOE on her spins they are +5, but none of the other elements those ladies perform deserve +5 and yet they got that kind of GOE. Not to mention the ignored edge calls and URs ( in Anna's case..) Sasha was probably overscored by 10 points when you consider the UR 4Lz in the free and the rather generous PCS.

At JN, the only overscored skater was Kaori Sakamoto. Rika scored exactly 1 point higher than her international best and this was a stronger outing. She landed a quad. Kaori scored essentially the same score as she has internationally but this was a bit weaker of a performance so I would say she was overscored by 5-10 points when you considered her ignored flutz in the SP.

In the end, all this means is that domestic scoring is stupid. It isn't worth getting mad about unless domestic politics favor one skater/ coach over another. Which unfortunately they do in all the countries mentioned above.....

Considering Kamila at Russian Nationals vs. Junior Worlds differences. At RN Kamila delivered two clean quads, at JW she had a step-out from her first quad with -2.44 points. She received 3.66 and 3.94 at RN and considering the height and other aspects I guess it shouldn't be a problem to receive 3-3.5 GOE for the jumps of similar quality. Just this gives some 5-6 points difference. Then there is of course choreo sequence, that gives another 4-5 points. So just those two things add instant 10 points, so Kamila's 152 points from JW can rise to 162 "easily". Then, components. At JW Kamila received 66.50, as a senior she can receive around 70 points (for the start), another 4 points. So now we are at 14 points of increased score with the only difference on clean second 4T. That gives us 166 points, so the actual difference betveen that and her score at RN for the free skate is just 8 points now. And 8 points, although it doesn't sound like that for some, is what can be achieved by slightly higher GOE here and there, by slightly higher components etc. If Kamila will deliver clean programs of high quality regularly, I can see her scoring between 165-170 points internationally.

Similarly we could talk about Anna and Sasha, comparing her internationals scores with the score at RN and find differences or similarities, but honestly if they will deliver similarly on the international level, I don't think there will be a problem for them to be close to what they received domestically.

 

[readernick]

Considering Kamila at Russian Nationals vs. Junior Worlds differences. At RN Kamila delivered two clean quads, at JW she had a step-out from her first quad with -2.44 points. She received 3.66 and 3.94 at RN and considering the height and othI tpects I guess it shouldn't be a problem to receive 3-3.5 GOE for the jumps of similar quality. Just this gives some 5-6 points difference. Then there is of course choreo sequence, that gives another 4-5 points. So just those two things add instant 10 points, so Kamila's 152 points from JW can rise to 162 "easily". Then, components. At JW Kamila received 66.50, as a senior she can receive around 70 points (for the start), another 4 points. So now we are at 14 points of increased score with the only difference on clean second 4T. That gives us 166 points, so the actual difference betveen that and her score at RN for the free skate is just 8 points now. And 8 points, although it doesn't sound like that for some, is what can be achieved by slightly higher GOE here and there, by slightly higher components etc. If Kamila will deliver clean programs of high quality regularly, I can see her scoring between 165-170 points internationally.

Similarly we could talk about Anna and Sasha, comparing her internationals scores with the score at RN and find differences or similarities, but honestly if they will deliver similarly on the international level, I don't think there will be a problem for them to be close to what they received domestically.

I think Kamilia was mostly overscored in the SP. I would say 166 for the LP internationally would possible but dependent on a generous panel of judges. I think her LP was honestly the best technically (although not artistically for me anyway) at nationals and her technical score in the long while definitely too high is not insane for national inflation. However, a short program with a fall and where the skater stopped performing after said fall should not receive 37 PCS, or that technical score. So, even given the changes you mentioned, the score was 10-15 too high over the course of nationals.

Anna has some technical issues which are never called by Russian panels which make the score she impossible internationally. Her best SP ever internationally 77 points, which was already generous scored. Her SP here received three points higher despite her rather terrible spin at the end. There were also issues with incredibly high GOE on a couple of UR elements. Her score was also 10-15 points too high when you consider both programs.

Sasha was slightly less overscored. She isn't the favorite, but her score was probably around 10 points too high.

Basically, all of this is to say that a person who considers US Nationals scoring ridiculous (which it is), should be realistic enough to acknowledge that it isn't limited to US nationals. Condemn all the overscoring or none at all. It seems you and Jontor are fine with Russian Nationals overscoring, but not when the US overscores it ladies a similar amount. Why? These scores don't matter.

 

[[email protected]]

Now I am talking yesbut. Yes, Bradie is good. She's a joy to watch for me since 2018-19 season. She was the best here by far and large. But her score is too high. She had very obvious URs especially in the combo, they were at the border of downgrade. Yet, they were not reflected in the scores. I think that she can be competitive with Darya who has the edge issue of her own. I would still place Darya a bit higher if they are both clean. To get the 4th place Bradie will have to outscore both Kaori and the third Russian. It is unlikely. Hence, we are talking about the fifth place at best. Then Karen will need to beat Young You and either the third Russian if Bradley is higher than her or Kaori. And of course, the third Japanese skater. It will be a serious challenge based on what I saw. 3 spots for USA? I would give it 10% chance.

 

[R.D.]

BTW, in the article about this year’s US world team I did not see Liu listed even as an alternate. Guess she still must be too young for the seniors then

 

[readernick]

BTW, in the article about this year’s US world team I did not see Liu listed even as an alternate. Guess she still must be too young for the seniors then

Yes, she will be eligible next year.

 

[macy]

it would truly be devastating if the US ladies don't have 3 spots next year. someone deserving will be left off.

Bradie has the body of work and reliability, Alysa has proved she is still very much in the conversation even without ultra si, Mariah deserves to make her first olympic team, Karen keeps improving. ugh, i really really hope Bradie and Karen do it in March, i think they can if they are both clean but that is the only way.

 

[Paulipau]

Now I am talking yesbut. Yes, Bradie is good. She's a joy to watch for me since 2018-19 season. She was the best here by far and large. But her score is too high. She had very obvious URs especially in the combo, they were at the border of downgrade. Yet, they were not reflected in the scores. I think that she can be competitive with Darya who has the edge issue of her own. I would still place Darya a bit higher if they are both clean. To get the 4th place Bradie will have to outscore both Kaori and the third Russian. It is unlikely. Hence, we are talking about the fifth place at best. Then Karen will need to beat Young You and either the third Russian if Bradley is higher than her or Kaori. And of course, the third Japanese skater. It will be a serious challenge based on what I saw. 3 spots for USA? I would give it 10% chance.

I don't see how Bradie can be 4th or 5th. Even if she goes clean. There are 3 Russians, 3 Japanese ladies (she might outscore Miyahara) but also new talents like Kiibus (6th at Rostelecom) or even Kurakova of Poland who defeated Bradie at Warsaw Cup few years ago. If I had to bet I would say she will be 7th.

 

[readernick]

I don't see how Bradie can be 4th or 5th. Even if she goes clean. There are 3 Russians, 3 Japanese ladies (she might outscore Miyahara) but also new talents like Kiibus (6th at Rostelecom) or even Kurakova of Poland who defeated Bradie at Warsaw Cup few years ago. If I had to bet I would say she will be 7th.

Kiibus and Kurakova absolutely do not have the technical power or the PCS to defeat Bradie (although I like them both very much/ they are both very talented) unless she has the worse skate of her life. Which she did at Warsaw Cup .. hence Kurakova's victory. She consistently scored between 212-222 internationally last year. Kiibus has never scored 200 points internationally (her highest score ever was 184), and Kurakova generally scores in the 170-180 range (due to her UR issues). The one time she scored over 200 (201) was at Warsaw Cup when she beat Bradie (Bradie had a terrible skate).

Now her real competitors are Sakamoto, the third Russian, and Young You. If Young You skates as she did at NHK, she won't be much of a threat. But, if she skates as she did at 4CC last year (without the home-field advantage), it will be a very close competition. Sakamoto's highest international score is about 1 point higher than Bradie's. So, that competition could go either way. The same is true for Tuktamysheva. Her highest score (not at WTT which is insanely overscored) is also in the 222-223 range. So, that could also go either way. If Alena is chosen, I think it will be much harder for Bradie to beat her. Judges love Alena. Basically, Bradie should be between 4-6 if clean. But, I agree with the poster who said the USA won't get three spots. The second lady being sent isn't competitive technically and could easily be beaten by a European skater. I would think a clean Leona Hendrickx could beat her. Leona is a beautiful skater and has strong jumps when she lands them.

 

[Skatefan15]

As nice as it would be for the ladies to get three spots, I just don’t see how it’s possible. Karen is prone to URs on almost every jump (and doesn’t do a consistent 3-3), and Bradie (although I like her skating) isn’t the cleanest jumper either (especially this year). The highest I see Bradie finishing is 6th or 7th and at that point there would be nothing Karen could do to get three spots (unless she’s absolutely clean—which has never happened). If Bradie is 5th, Karen would have to be 8th or better and I’m just not sure if she would be able to do it. Of course, I would love to be wrong, but that’s just my take on it.

I still really wish Amber was sent though, just purely for the experience of it all (and I think she’s not as prone to unders—but that’s partially because internationally she pops —she also at least tries a 3-3 on both programs). Her reputation internationally isn’t as big as Karen’s which would affect the PCS score, even though I think they are actually both pretty equal in PCS (as for both it is sometimes program/jump dependent). I just wish Amber would have had the opportunity to build that “body of work” the US likes to depend on so much. Nevertheless, I hope Bradie and Karen do well (even though I think worlds should be cancelled)!

 

[moonvine]

I was referring to the 2018 Russian GP event referenced in my quoted post, not the Sochi Olympics.



It is what it is. Historically, if I remember correctly, Gold somewhat struggled with consistency even in her prime years. However, even on off-nights she had the SS to remain in the 'elite' crop so to speak. I don't know what her training situation is, or what opportunities to compete will be open to her moving forward, but the reality is based on how the USFS does things now, her finish here could make her case for 2022 much tougher. My gut feeling is that she knew that going in, hence her reaction.

But - if she is in the right mindset and is skating for the right reasons, she'll be fine in the long run.

Then again, as I've said in many posts of yesteryear - anything can happen, you just never know...



It's not just skating but sports and TV in general, really. I've just mostly found other things to do with the limited time I've had. Of course, we are now in "the current state of affairs" with everything closed, plus we are in the middle of winter (in the northern hemisphere)...

Anyway, on that topic, I saw the recent newcomer to the US scene, Alysa Liu, and she looks like promising talent - as long as she can transition successfully through the growth spurt she is apparently experiencing. As I pointed out in the FS observations thread, she appears to have a sharp mental focus on the ice (rare!) - if she gets her big jumps back, US skating could have a bright future...just keep that Hype Machine(TM) under control.r

I’d like

As nice as it would be for the ladies to get three spots, I just don’t see how it’s possible. Karen is prone to URs on almost every jump (and doesn’t do a consistent 3-3), and Bradie (although I like her skating) isn’t the cleanest jumper either (especially this year). The highest I see Bradie finishing is 6th or 7th and at that point there would be nothing Karen could do to get three spots (unless she’s absolutely clean—which has never happened). If Bradie is 5th, Karen would have to be 8th or better and I’m just not sure if she would be able to do it. Of course, I would love to be wrong, but that’s just my take on it.

I still really wish Amber was sent though, just purely for the experience of it all (and I think she’s not as prone to unders—but that’s partially because internationally she pops —she also at least tries a 3-3 on both programs). Her reputation internationally isn’t as big as Karen’s which would affect the PCS score, even though I think they are actually both pretty equal in PCS (as for both it is sometimes program/jump dependent). I just wish Amber would have had the opportunity to build that “body of work” the US likes to depend on so much. Nevertheless, I hope Bradie and Karen do well (even though I think worlds should be cancelled)!

Ice is slippery. Keegan caught his toe pick in a rut in the ice in Worlds 2019 (I think. If I’m wrong someone will correct me), went on to have a very rough skate, and dropped from top 6 to I think 15th? Nathan Chen had a complete meltdown at the last Olympics. It’s not the way I would want to get 3 spots back. But it is possible.

 

[Skatefan15]

Ice is slippery. Keegan caught his toe pick in a rut in the ice in Worlds 2019 (I think. If I’m wrong someone will correct me), went on to have a very rough skate, and dropped from top 6 to I think 15th? Nathan Chen had a complete meltdown at the last Olympics. It’s not the way I would want to get 3 spots back. But it is possible.

I agree that ice is slippery, but I think a lot of skaters would have to skate less than ideal for the US to get a third spot (along with the US ladies having to skate well—rotating almost everything). It’s not impossible but I honestly think there’s like a 10% or lower chance

 

[R.D.]

Yes, she will be eligible next year.

US Skating and NBC Olympics will probably want Liu in the mix as soon as she's eligible. Sounds like the State of the US Ladies is back to where it was circa 2009. Hope her team is prepared for the likely media circus to come.

 

[Makemi]

I think we also need to take into consideration that the pandemic has really thrown this season (and everyone's preparations) into total disarray. Some have not been able to train consistently because of rink closures or quarantine and some have had little (to no) competitions. Normally we'd be factoring Yelim and Eunsoo in this equation but I don't even know if they've been able to train (let alone compete) with all the rink closures in Korea. Has Young You competed anywhere besides NHK? Satoko and Rika's only comp has been Japan Nationals (did Satoko go back to Canada? If so she would have had to quarantine again). I'm not as familiar with the European skaters, have Loena and Alexia Paginini competed anywhere (I don't know if they got to go to a challenger earlier this season or not)? And Liza and Aliona both had Covid.

So yes ice is slippery. More so in this case. I maintain that getting three slots back (assuming Worlds actually goes ahead) is a tall order but it's not zero.

 

[ladyjane]

Loena competed in Hungary, and won the competition (her SP was terrific but it was an old one, her Free showed a bit of a lack of stamina - but she hadn't competed for more than a year), Alexia competed at Nebelhorn and was second there (with a good SP and a really bad FS). Eva-Lotta Kiibus won at Nebelhorn, and also competed at Rostelecom (with the Russian ladies) where she was 6th (but I'm not sure I remember that correctly).

 

[b-man]

it would truly be devastating if the US ladies don't have 3 spots next year. someone deserving will be left off.

Bradie has the body of work and reliability, Alysa has proved she is still very much in the conversation even without ultra si, Mariah deserves to make her first olympic team, Karen keeps improving. ugh, i really really hope Bradie and Karen do it in March, i think they can if they are both clean but that is the only way.

Agree, it will be a disaster without 3 spots, and deserving people will be left off. I do note your list of Bradie, Alysa, Mariah and Karen also left someone off, Amber.

 

[Amei]

it would truly be devastating if the US ladies don't have 3 spots next year. someone deserving will be left off.

Bradie has the body of work and reliability, Alysa has proved she is still very much in the conversation even without ultra si, Mariah deserves to make her first olympic team, Karen keeps improving. ugh, i really really hope Bradie and Karen do it in March, i think they can if they are both clean but that is the only way.

I don't know if I take the approach that it would be 'devastating' - IMO most of the US ladies you mentioned are reaping a bit of a mess of their own making - 2 of the 4 skaters you mentioned were on the Worlds team that performed in such a way that cost the US ladies their third spot and those same 2 ladies were on the team the following year and didn't perform well enough to gain back the third spot. And they all (with the exception of Alysa who is age ineligible) have stood back and not increased their technical difficulty in a meaningful manner that makes them a Worlds podium threat this year, so now they are going into the competition to determine Olympic spots and the 2 being sent likely need to be perfect or close to it just to have a shot at gaining back that third spot.

 

[moonvine]

US Skating and NBC Olympics will probably want Liu in the mix as soon as she's eligible. Sounds like the State of the US Ladies is back to where it was circa 2009. Hope her team is prepared for the likely media circus to come.

Media circus to come? There’s already been one! They had her crowned as America’s next great hope the night she won her first Nationals.