2021-2022 US Women's Figure Skating

[natsulian]

For Alysa, I’m predicting a short program layout consisting of a 3A, 3F, and a second-half 3Lz3T. For the long program, I’m predicting a layout consisting of 3A2T, 4Lz, 3A, 3Lo // 3Lz3T, 3LzEu3S, and 3F. With this layout, Alysa repeats both the 3A and 3Lz while backloading two of her three combinations. Even if her 4Lz is deemed to be under, as long as Alysa rotates all of her other jumps and lands them with positive grade of execution, her TES should comfortably rise to 80+. Alysa’s scoring potential with the 3A in the short program puts her in 75-85 range. Coupled with a long program scoring potential of 140-160, Alysa’s total scoring potential is roughly 215-245. If Alysa consistently scores in the 225-235 range, podium finishes at her events might be possible but not guaranteed. The ice is slippery, anything can and will happen; whatever happens, let us applaud Alysa for fighting back in a way that very few skaters have (in terms of skaters who had the same kind of pressure and media hype).

 

[Sjs5572]

For Alysa, I’m predicting a short program layout consisting of a 3A, 3F, and a second-half 3Lz3T. For the long program, I’m predicting a layout consisting of 3A2T, 4Lz, 3A, 3Lo // 3Lz3T, 3LzEu3S, and 3F. With this layout, Alysa repeats both the 3A and 3Lz while backloading two of her three combinations. Even if her 4Lz is deemed to be under, as long as Alysa rotates all of her other jumps and lands them with positive grade of execution, her TES should comfortably rise to 80+. Alysa’s scoring potential with the 3A in the short program puts her in 75-85 range. Coupled with a long program scoring potential of 140-160, Alysa’s total scoring potential is roughly 215-245. If Alysa consistently scores in the 225-235 range, podium finishes at her events might be possible but not guaranteed. The ice is slippery, anything can and will happen; whatever happens, let us applaud Alysa for fighting back in a way that very few skaters have (in terms of skaters who had the same kind of pressure and media hype).

I agree. Also, it's early in the season. I think that 4lz will be fully rotated by the Grand Prix. I also wouldn't be surprised if she puts two quad lutzes in the lp.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

No weaknesses? Are you serious? None that are "seen" by the judges apparently, but plenty are there if you want to see them...

They aren't getting 10's across the board in PCS, so the judges are seeing them. Anna earned PCS scores in the low 70s for her Worlds LP, which isn't egregious for a program with only one element that had -GOE.

 

[spicymacaron]

Anna also got the highest pcs in the entire competition, more so than skaters that had clean programs. It's not egregious in a vacuum, but harder to argue considering Kaori and Karen's pcs at worlds. Especially having the highest ss when she isn't even above average in that regard.

 

[readernick]

Anna also got the highest pcs in the entire competition, more so than skaters that had clean programs. It's not egregious in a vacuum, but harder to argue considering Kaori and Karen's pcs at worlds. Especially having the highest ss when she isn't even above average in that regard.

I mean, obviously, Anna is overscored in both PCS and GOE but it happens to all the favorites and it is going to continue to happen. So, if Alysa wants to be equally overscored she needs to make herself a favorite of the judges. She needs a powerful federation ( USFS is pretty powerful although not as powerful as Rusfed) , she needs to be the #1 in the US, and she needs to be consistent. In those circumstances, the judges will ignore her deficiencies in SS which Anna also has and lack of great jump technique ( Dido Anna) .

 

[spicymacaron]

Consistency is 100% the most important thing.

I mean, obviously, Anna is overscored in both PCS and GOE but it happens to all the favorites and it is going to continue to happen. So, if Alysa wants to be equally overscored she needs to make herself a favorite of the judges. She needs a powerful federation ( USFS is pretty powerful although not as powerful as Rusfed) , she needs to be the #1 in the US, and she needs to be consistent. In those circumstances, the judges will ignore her deficiencies in SS which Anna also has and lack of great jump technique ( Dido Anna) .

Agreed, I want to give Alysa some credit here, she's noticeably improved in both skating skills and speed. Even her jumps look a lot better!

 

[macy]

For Alysa, I’m predicting a short program layout consisting of a 3A, 3F, and a second-half 3Lz3T. For the long program, I’m predicting a layout consisting of 3A2T, 4Lz, 3A, 3Lo // 3Lz3T, 3LzEu3S, and 3F. With this layout, Alysa repeats both the 3A and 3Lz while backloading two of her three combinations. Even if her 4Lz is deemed to be under, as long as Alysa rotates all of her other jumps and lands them with positive grade of execution, her TES should comfortably rise to 80+. Alysa’s scoring potential with the 3A in the short program puts her in 75-85 range. Coupled with a long program scoring potential of 140-160, Alysa’s total scoring potential is roughly 215-245. If Alysa consistently scores in the 225-235 range, podium finishes at her events might be possible but not guaranteed. The ice is slippery, anything can and will happen; whatever happens, let us applaud Alysa for fighting back in a way that very few skaters have (in terms of skaters who had the same kind of pressure and media hype).

are these the same layouts she won her first senior national title with? i know she did something similar.

 

[Scott512]

Unless she has really improved her speed and skating skills dramatically she probably will have to be happy to make the Olympic team for now. The Russian girls have the experience and the big elements and reputation that Alysa doesn't have yet as a Senior competitor. Doesn't mean if she keeps improving she won't someday make a World podium i wouldn't put it past her.

I think I read a post from someone in this thread that she has her jumps back and improved speed. If thats the case it's a game changer for Alysa.

 

[Scott512]

No weaknesses? Are you serious? None that are "seen" by the judges apparently, but plenty are there if you want to see them...

Plenty might be a bit of an exaggeration.

 

[dancelion21]

are these the same layouts she won her first senior national title with? i know she did something similar.

That's the layout she was using for her second senior national title. She didn't have the quad lutz when she won her first senior title.

 

[beepboop]

Do skaters typically use programs from the previous season or the upcoming season for the Peggy Fleming trophy (if there's a norm at all)?

I'm dying to know what Alysa's programs are!

 

[ptvvibezz]

Do skaters typically use programs from the previous season or the upcoming season for the Peggy Fleming trophy (if there's a norm at all)?

I'm dying to know what Alysa's programs are!

I believe that they use their programs from the upcoming season although modified since the rules for the PFT are different than the rules for ISU-sanctioned competitions.

 

[spicymacaron]

Plenty might be a bit of an exaggeration.

Maybe not plenty, but every Russian lady except Aliona at her best and potentially Daria have a few weaknesses.

 

[RatedPG]

I just finished watching the Junior Cup. Isabeau, Lindsay and Clare were all amazing! There was also a new girl… Josephine, who stood out. US is really developing some future stars.

 

[florin]

Maybe not plenty, but every Russian lady except Aliona at her best and potentially Daria have a few weaknesses.

Sure, and the main weakness is that they are Russian)
Oh, wait, are these US ladies? I think I went into the wrong thread, my bad

 

[Lunalovesskating]

I just finished watching the Junior Cup. Isabeau, Lindsay and Clare were all amazing! There was also a new girl… Josephine, who stood out. US is really developing some future stars.

Isabaeu's SP is so beautiful. She is a very elegant skater

 

[*~RussianBleux~*]

I see they’re still in the business of screwing Clare over on PCS. Disappointing.

I’m glad to say I noticed that Isabeau has improved from nationals. Her program was beautifully choreographed and she presented it very well but there is something still very slow and intentional about her movements. I feel that Clare has much more speed and a better command over the ice. It’s like, Isabeau is doing a lot but to do it well she has to slow down and focus super hard on each movement. Lindsay is the same way. Whereas Clare is fast, effortless, and everything just flows. She absolutely killed that program and was the best today in my opinion.

No edge calls for a Isabeau’s lutz yet everyone else gets called. I’m beginning to think she is well-connected.

 

[readernick]

Clare probably does deserve higher PCS than she is getting. Her SS are the best and her performance skills are where they need to be for a junior skater. However, in terms of attention to the music and transitions, I think Isabeau deserves the higher PCS. She hits all her notes and her extension is amazing. ( She always points her toes) The program itself is also more eye-catching. Additionally, Isabeau is a much better spinner than Clare and backloads her combination so that gives her a technical advantage. Isabeau's jumps are better than last year. She still needs more speed into them. On a technical level, Lindsey is the most impressive but she really needs to work on her performance skills. Music is playing, but she doesn't seem to be aware it's there.

On the whole, I agree with the results and I was actually pretty impressive with the top 6 junior women here who all have a lot of talent which isn't something we have seen in junior women's skating in the US for a while.

 

[Dawn825]

Does anyone have a link? I don't think I've seen any of these girls skate except Lindsey. I'm getting curious about the next generation, since it's feasible that all 5 of this year's Olympic contenders will retire after this season.

 

[ptvvibezz]

Does anyone have a link? I don't think I've seen any of these girls skate except Lindsey. I'm getting curious about the next generation, since it's feasible that all 5 of this year's Olympic contenders will retire after this season.

Here's the link. On the left, click the arrow down button, and select the video that is nine hours long. The first group of the Junior Ladies cup starts off with Kanon Smith who is currently in 6th place. The timestamp is 8:13:00.