2021-22 Russian Women's Figure Skating

[spicymacaron]

Sorry I'm confused. Whenever Liza, Rika and Aliona had skated a clean program with 3A, they were pretty much guaranteed a medal? Mirai might be the exception as her score in the team event was pretty low but it still came second in that section. Alysa hasn't skated as a senior yet but she medalled at all her junior events.

Well yeah? The point is that having a 3A doesn't guarantee a clean program. Just a 3A doesn't mean someone is consistent with it or can rely on it solely. Wakaba has a 3A and has never broken the 210s. However, I'm also confused about the "Liza, Rika, Mirai, Alysa, and Aliona also have 3A's with really all but Alysa being "just" 3As" comment. Everyone on that list has plenty of strengths beside their 3As. Especially putting Rika and Aliona in the just 3A category is baffling. They're considered the most well rounded female skaters. Aliona's junior pcs was higher than Kamila's. Even when she didn't have a triple axel, she was considered an extraordinarily artistic skater. Liza and Mirai's general jump technique is very good. Those strengths + 3A were how they were able to medal.

 

[Jontor]

I was playing around a bit with GP predictions and who is going to the GPF.
I know, it's still early days yet and a lot can happen, and we don't really know the host spots yet.

For now, this is how I can imagine it to play out:

1. 30 Shcherbakova - has the easiest road to the GPF
1. 30 Valieva - I expect her to win her two events easily
1. 30 Trusova - Sasha has a tough road and if she does a 2 fall long program there are a lots of girls that can catch her. Questionmark.
4. 26 Kihira - should get through to the GPF, but she has to skate better than at Worlds and WTT
4. 26 Khrmoykh - if she gets that host spot she can easily Q for the GPF.
6. 24 Kostornaia - I think she can just squeeze in, but she has to get a somewhat stable 3A back.
------------------------------------------------
7. 20 Usacheva - has the toughest events alongside Sasha, but if Sasha fails Daria might take her place.
7. 20 Sakamoto - has to be as good as she was at WTT, but even then I don't think a GPF is likely.
7. 20 Tuktamysheva - I'm afraid that Liza might just get edged out.
7. 20 You - this one is hard to predict, she might surprise us.
7. 20 Hendrickx - has two "easy" events but I don't think she can get into the GPF
12. 18 Sinitsyna - I really hope Ksenia can do better but her events are tough.
13. 16 Higuchi
14. 14 Tennell
15. 12 Bell
15. 12 Lee
17. 11 Kim
18. 9 Liu - sorry, but Alysa's two GPs are super tough, can't see her get more than a 5th and 6th place.

 

[Minz]

Before we make a ton of predictions, there are several very important factors that need to be set, as those could make a huge difference in how this plays out.

1. Will Kostornaia be able to get a stable 3A?
2. Will Tuktamysheva be able to put a quad into her programs? (We’ve only seen it in practice up until this point)
3. Will Daria have a quad/3A?
4. Can Rika have a consistent 3A and 4S?
5. Will Amber be able to put a stable 3A into her programs?
6. How consistent will people like Bradie, Ksenia, Kaori, and Mariah be?
7. How well will Alysa be able to implement her quad and 3A into her programs?

Any of these factors could easily upend everything….

There are also some other smaller factors, that maybe we haven’t necessarily strongly considered yet…

1. Anna injured her toe. It’s her picking foot, and both of her quads are toe jumps
2. How consistent will Sasha be? With so many strong competitors, a miss instead of a hit could be really bad.

 

[macy]

I was playing around a bit with GP predictions and who is going to the GPF.
I know, it's still early days yet and a lot can happen, and we don't really know the host spots yet.

For now, this is how I can imagine it to play out:

1. 30 Shcherbakova - has the easiest road to the GPF
1. 30 Valieva - I expect her to win her two events easily
1. 30 Trusova - Sasha has a tough road and if she does a 2 fall long program there are a lots of girls that can catch her. Questionmark.
4. 26 Kihira - should get through to the GPF, but she has to skate better than at Worlds and WTT
4. 26 Khrmoykh - if she gets that host spot she can easily Q for the GPF.
6. 24 Kostornaia - I think she can just squeeze in, but she has to get a somewhat stable 3A back.
------------------------------------------------
7. 20 Usacheva - has the toughest events alongside Sasha, but if Sasha fails Daria might take her place.
7. 20 Sakamoto - has to be as good as she was at WTT, but even then I don't think a GPF is likely.
7. 20 Tuktamysheva - I'm afraid that Liza might just get edged out.
7. 20 You - this one is hard to predict, she might surprise us.
7. 20 Hendrickx - has two "easy" events but I don't think she can get into the GPF
12. 18 Sinitsyna - I really hope Ksenia can do better but her events are tough.
13. 16 Higuchi
14. 14 Tennell
15. 12 Bell
15. 12 Lee
17. 11 Kim
18. 9 Liu - sorry, but Alysa's two GPs are super tough, can't see her get more than a 5th and 6th place.

this is a *tad* bit ridiculous.

 

[Jontor]

this is a *tad* bit ridiculous.

How so? It is just my opinion. And predictions are as uncertain as they can be right now. So of course it is not for real.

 

[Jontor]

Before we make a ton of predictions, there are several very important factors that need to be set, as those could make a huge difference in how this plays out.

1. Will Kostornaia be able to get a stable 3A?
2. Will Tuktamysheva be able to put a quad into her programs? (We’ve only seen it in practice up until this point)
3. Will Daria have a quad/3A?
4. Can Rika have a consistent 3A and 4S?
5. Will Amber be able to put a stable 3A into her programs?
6. How consistent will people like Bradie, Ksenia, Kaori, and Mariah be?
7. How well will Alysa be able to implement her quad and 3A into her programs?

Any of these factors could easily upend everything….

There are also some other smaller factors, that maybe we haven’t necessarily strongly considered yet…

1. Anna injured her toe. It’s her picking foot, and both of her quads are toe jumps
2. How consistent will Sasha be? With so many strong competitors, a miss instead of a hit could be really bad.

Yes, all those factors and many many more are of course important. It always is.

If we can be certain of anything, it's that nothing ever goes the way it's planned.

I'm sure we are in for quite a few surprises, both good and bad.

 

[macy]

How so? It is just my opinion. And predictions are as uncertain as they can be right now. So of course it is not for real.

i'm really confused why you put her dead last. she is competition to almost everyone on this list and has a leg up technically on half of them.

 

[chasingneverland]

Well yeah? The point is that having a 3A doesn't guarantee a clean program. Just a 3A doesn't mean someone is consistent with it or can rely on it solely. Wakaba has a 3A and has never broken the 210s. However, I'm also confused about the "Liza, Rika, Mirai, Alysa, and Aliona also have 3A's with really all but Alysa being "just" 3As" comment. Everyone on that list has plenty of strengths beside their 3As. Especially putting Rika and Aliona in the just 3A category is baffling. They're considered the most well rounded female skaters. Aliona's junior pcs was higher than Kamila's. Even when she didn't have a triple axel, she was considered an extraordinarily artistic skater. Liza and Mirai's general jump technique is very good. Those strengths + 3A were how they were able to medal.

I meant Alysa also has a quad. (Rika does too but it's newer and she's never competed it internationally.) That's what I meant by "just". I was referring to their technical content. I wasn't referring to any skaters strengths OR weaknesses.

 

[chasingneverland]

Sorry I'm confused. Whenever Liza, Rika and Aliona had skated a clean program with 3A, they were pretty much guaranteed a medal? Mirai might be the exception as her score in the team event was pretty low but it still came second in that section. Alysa hasn't skated as a senior yet but she medalled at all her junior events.

Liza and Rika have had 3A's for years and it hasn't ever guaranteed them a medal or meant that they had the assurance of falling and still medaling. (Liza's had her 3A for SEVEN years and doesn't even have the assurances of getting out of Russia. Granted, Russia's women's technical content is astronomically high HOWEVER that hasn't been the case for the entire time, just since the 3A. Even the last quad, Liza's technical content was higher and it never guaranteed her a medal.)

In fact, none of Liza, Aliona, Young, Mirai, or Alysa (armed with their 3As) have even been guaranteed placements on teams.

Now, admittedly, some of that is the strength of their respective nations (especially Russia), but Liza T and Aliona could both skate clean programs with 3As and be outscored by Anna, Sasha, Kamila, etc. As for Alysa, she wasn't clean (but she landed three 3As which is what we're discussing) and she was beaten by a clean Daria (and would be beaten in seniors).

 

[Jontor]

i'm really confused why you put her dead last. she is competition to almost everyone on this list and has a leg up technically on half of them.

Oh ok, you are bummed about Alysa. Well, here is my train of thought...

Skate Canada: The toughest competition of them all, my prediction was: 1. Valieva 2. Kihira 3. Kostornaia 4. Tuktamysheva 5. Higuchi 6. Liu

NHK: 1. Trusova 2. Kihira 3. Usacheva 4. Sakamoto 5. Liu

Alysa's competition is fierce! And she has a big disadvantage unlike the others. She didn't compete at all internationally, and not much nationally last season. Her Russian counterparts spent last season competing a lot with added technical content. Reportedly, Alysa hasn't landed a 3A or a quad since two seasons ago.

So I think it's going to be a tough road for Alysa, but I will be very happy for her if she can surprise me!.

 

[chasingneverland]

1. Anna injured her toe. It’s her picking foot, and both of her quads are toe jumps

Anna does have a buffer for Cup of China. She can score 230+ even with a fall on a single quad. No one else (except maybe Maiia will get close to that). She doesn't need her quads consistent for her first GP. (Although that will help.)

 

[happycamper2554]

Alysa's competition is fierce! And she has a big disadvantage unlike the others. She didn't compete at all internationally, and not much nationally last season. Her Russian counterparts spent last season competing a lot with added technical content. Reportedly, Alysa hasn't landed a 3A or a quad since two seasons ago.

I heard Alysa is landing 90% of 3A in practice. The quad has looked a little under in the videos but i think she can't get there. I wouldn't write her off yet.

 

[Lzbee]

Liza and Rika have had 3A's for years and it hasn't ever guaranteed them a medal or meant that they had the assurance of falling and still medaling. (Liza's had her 3A for SEVEN years and doesn't even have the assurances of getting out of Russia. Granted, Russia's women's technical content is astronomically high HOWEVER that hasn't been the case for the entire time, just since the 3A. Even the last quad, Liza's technical content was higher and it never guaranteed her a medal.)

In fact, none of Liza, Aliona, Young, Mirai, or Alysa (armed with their 3As) have even been guaranteed placements on teams.

Now, admittedly, some of that is the strength of their respective nations (especially Russia), but Liza T and Aliona could both skate clean programs with 3As and be outscored by Anna, Sasha, Kamila, etc. As for Alysa, she wasn't clean (but she landed three 3As which is what we're discussing) and she was beaten by a clean Daria (and would be beaten in seniors).

Not disagreeing with you but to clarify the comment that you were replying to, I was just marvelling at the fact that having clean 3A programs could potentially not be enough to podium.

 

[chasingneverland]

Not disagreeing with you but to clarify the comment that you were replying to, I was just marvelling at the fact that having clean 3A programs could potentially not be enough to podium.

Yeah, it's crazy. Not entirely a completely new thing - Liza T has had a 3A for awhile - but absolutely crazy. So many talented skaters might not even make it out of their country much less medal internationally.

I mean even Sasha - who might be the most technically gifted firecracker the world has ever seen - isn't a guarantee to even make it out of Russia much less medal. (Although, if she's clean (at full power) no one (other than maybe Kamila) can touch her.)

 

[macy]

Oh ok, you are bummed about Alysa. Well, here is my train of thought...

Skate Canada: The toughest competition of them all, my prediction was: 1. Valieva 2. Kihira 3. Kostornaia 4. Tuktamysheva 5. Higuchi 6. Liu

NHK: 1. Trusova 2. Kihira 3. Usacheva 4. Sakamoto 5. Liu

Alysa's competition is fierce! And she has a big disadvantage unlike the others. She didn't compete at all internationally, and not much nationally last season. Her Russian counterparts spent last season competing a lot with added technical content. Reportedly, Alysa hasn't landed a 3A or a quad since two seasons ago.

So I think it's going to be a tough road for Alysa, but I will be very happy for her if she can surprise me!.

i'm only trying to understand why placing her dead last was a fair assessment. IMO, it's not. Ice is very slippery and nothing is a lock. Usually our predictions are quite wrong.

Regardless of if Alysa brings her 3A and a quad back (which seems highly likely based on training videos), Kihira has been struggling, is injured and inconsistent. Kostornaia had a very rough season last year, lost her 3A and no one knows if she will have it back this year either. i think the odds of her having a quad are very slim. Tuktamysheva can be a wild card. Higuchi to my knowledge has not landed a clean 3A in competition, is inconsistent and has not been a steady medal threat for a long time. She is easily beatable. Usacheva has no 3A or quad that we know of yet. Sakamoto is inconsistent and doesn't usually skate clean. Trusova can bomb. She has already beaten her American competition domestically, more than once.

My point is she can beat all of these skaters, and they can beat her, depending on the day they have. I am not an uber fan of Alysa, but I know from watching her the last 3 years she can hold her own and likes to prove you shouldn't count her out.

 

[Jontor]

I heard Alysa is landing 90% of 3A in practice. The quad has looked a little under in the videos but i think she can't get there. I wouldn't write her off yet.

Oh I am not writing her off. But landing the 3A 90% and UR on the quad sounds like exactly the same level she was at two seasons ago. And Valieva/Usacheva beat her then anyway with lesser tech content.

I wish Alysa all the best. But the competition this year has never been tougher...

 

[Jontor]

Totally agree. Anything can happen. But all those skaters you mentioned have another advantage over Alysa. PCS.

Yes, we know nothing at this point. Some might have improved, some might have lost it, but that goes for Alysa too.

What we do know however, is that we are in for a very exciting season.

 

[chasingneverland]

Totally agree. Anything can happen. But all those skaters you mentioned have another advantage over Alysa. PCS.

Yes, we know nothing at this point. Some might have improved, some might have lost it, but that goes for Alysa too.

What we do know however, is that we are in for a very exciting season.

Alysa's PCS could change quite a bit if USA decides they want to push her as their number 1. (We saw how powerful the USFed can be..)

Exciting and stressful season.

 

[Jontor]

Alysa's PCS could change quite a bit if USA decides they want to push her as their number 1. (We saw how powerful the USFed can be..)

Exciting and stressful season.

Stressful indeed!!

The season starts mid August and then we have competitions every weekend until GPF.

Then there's the nerve wrecking nationals, then Europeans/4CC and then...the OLYMPICS...and Worlds.

7 months of stress...

 

[chasingneverland]

Stressful indeed!!

The season starts mid August and then we have competitions every weekend until GPF.

Then there's the nerve wrecking nationals, then Europeans/4CC and then...the OLYMPICS...and Worlds.

7 months of stress...

Honestly I can't wait haha...

I am also v nervous haha