Road to Milano: Women's Figure Skating

[Skater Boy]

Let's discuss Women's figure skating as it progresses throughout the season to the Olympics and Worlds in 2026.

 

[Skater Boy]

Well after the fourth event of the Grand Prix event we see signs that Kaori's inconsistency towards the end of last year and the start of this season is disappearing. Her recent skate at NHK was very impressive. She skated almost clean with great confidence and style and she looks tike the favourite at this point for Olympics and worlds. It is good to see Loena back skating. She is well liked by the judges and fans. The American ladies are battling each other for the three spots for the Olympics and Worlds. Alyssa, Amber and Isabeau have set themselves apart from the others. Amber's triple axel is looking good anc consistent. Alyssa seems to be shrouded in mystery - what programs will she use and will she do the triple axel? One would think she needs to try it at the GP Finals which is expected she will qualify next week. It is unclear who is the no. 1 American lady as Amber continues to win. Ami and Mone from Japan have looked pretty good and to challenge. Ami relies on the triple axel. A little sad that Wakaba doesn't look like has much of a come back. The Koreans surprisingly ony have two spots but none of the ladies have looked that good. No one has taken control of their destiny. There are some other Eastern European ladies who could do well. The big jumper from Italy Lara has been a bit inconsistent. Kaori seems to be the one cnstant even when she is a bit off and Amber and Alyssa seem consistent as well. You can never count out Isabeau as we saw last year despite all her problems she came fourth when it counted.

 

[elektra blue]

Anna, not Lara, although Lara has been inconsistent the past few years and found consistency only recently

 

[Mathematician]

Well, there's a thread for tentative discussion about the Olympic favourites.

My verdict with the women this year is that so far there is no verdict. Nobody looks consistent at all. Nobody is scoring well. From the internationals I've had Kaori as a favourite for a while and I'm sticking with that.

 

[gsk8]

US and Japanese women are looking strong this season.

Sofia Samodelkina will be one to watch as she keeps gaining more experience this season. Adorable to watch!

Hoping Hendrickx will stay healthy!

 

[Mathman]

I have my eye on the triple Axel. My prediction is that it will take a 3A to win and that several aspirants will grab the bull by the horns and go for it.

 

[lariko]

I have my eye on the triple Axel. My prediction is that it will take a 3A to win and that several aspirants will grab the bull by the horns and go for it.

Still thinking it makes a difference?

 

[Mathematician]

Still thinking it makes a difference?

Told you it's a meaningless 50/50. This is not a winning condition to me at all.

So, there is still no easily defensible favourite amongst the women.

 

[Mathman]

Still thinking it makes a difference?

All the more. Rinka Watanabe did a good triple Axel in the SP and that triple Axel won the segment for her. In the LP she led off with a good triple Axel in combination, then immediately gave her advantage back by flubbing her solo attempt.

No one knows what the future might bring, but I still expect that there will be several skaters who come into the Olympics with a triple Axel prepared and that the winner will be the one who lands two triple Axels over both programs and skates clean. I don't believe that a performance like what we just saw from Alysa will be enough to take the gold medal in Milano. But I do expect that Alysa will be one of the 3A hopefuls come February.

What Liu did today plus a triple Axel, she could win it all,

 

[Mathematician]

What she did today plus a triple Axel, she could win it all,

I do not think this one fall cost her even 10 points. She was at 210. It would not win the Olympics. At least, I hope not, or it means Kaori & friends tarnished the event.

That is already a gigantic if:

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You require a borderline career record plus another 3A.

 

[Mathman]

The point that I was trying to make is that I do not believe that "business as usual" will be enough to win the Olympic gold medal. I think (hope) that someone will bring something extra.

Alysa Liu will not win with a clean program and great presentation, like she did at worlds. But Alysa Liu with a clean program, great presentation and a triple Axel might.

I don't behieve that Kaori Sakamoto will win with a clean program and outstanding skating skills. But with a clean program, outstanding skating skills and a triple Axel she might.

Amber Glenn with two solid triple Axels might contend for the podium. Amber Glenn without a triple Axel won't.

Other skaters , like the third Japanese, the top Koreans and top Europeans, if they add a triple Axel to what they've already got. they might be a factor

Of course, if only one or two ladies go for broke with a triple Axel, and they fail or have other errors and weaknesses, then other scenarios come into play. But if, say, half a dozen ladies come in to Milano prepared with a triple Axel, the odds are that not ALL of them will fail and the one that doesn't will be in the catbird's seat.

(Not to mention the elephant in the room in all of these prognostications. )

 

[Mathman]

You require a borderline career record plus another 3A.

It's not what I require, but it might be what is necessary to contend for the Olympic podium.

 

[Jammers]

Are Mathman and Mathematician two different people or is he talking to himself?

​

 

[noskates]

I think the triple axel will be a factor when all else is equal - operative words when all else is equal. At this point in time I think the most consistent and polished woman is Kaori. After that it's anybody's guess. Yes Amber had the triple axel and it's been semi-consistent. BUT, when Amber makes one mistake it seems like she loses focus. Loena is still coming off a serious injury and so far doesn't seem to have recovered her old fire. There's still time. Then there are about 10 women from various countries that could have beautiful skates and medal. It's going to be very interesting.

 

[Marius]

I think I'll have a clearer idea about who will be the favorite going into Milano after Russian Nationals (even though, Shcherbakova's looked really not on form at Nationals in 2022 and then had clean performances in Beijing). If she restores the 4T (and by the time February comes she may have restored her 3A too) Adeliia is the one to catch, BUT the scores we have seen from her in the Oly Qualifier were not as high as we could have expected, so she'll have to be clean and land the 4T to win, IMO. Kaori's rn seems the most consistent overall, but two clean performances have not been enough to beat a clean Ami in France; then again, Ami is very much not consistent with her 3A and she'll have to earn her place in the Oly Team. The other skater with a reliable 3A is Glenn; she has two very good programs this year but has been inconsistent. Overall I think it'll be a much more open competition than what Beijing was and whoever lands all their jumps will win. If Adeliia lands her 4T and goes clean, it'll be Adeliia's. If she does not and Amber lands both her 3As and goes clean, then it's Amber's gold. Then Ami; then Kaori. I think Alysa could be a factor for the medals but not for the gold (she has talked about the 3A, but in 2021-2022 all the attempts were UR or downgraded). Mone is my dark horse. Rion's 4T is at this moment in time a planned fall - UR element so I don't think she can score much higher than what she did in France.

 

[SmileHappy34]

Japan has 7 women that could take ogm but can send only 3
Kaori with triples triples and 3x we behind her
Mone Chiba with triples triples and her reigning silver medal
Rion with an inconsistent quad and 3axel
Triple triple
Rinka with 2 3 axel Triples triple
Ami Naki youngster joined seniors with 3axel and triple triple
A bit inconsistent as junior jumping to senior
Wakaba Ĥiguchi
Usa
Hasv3 women being talk about as most likely make olympic team
Alysa triples triple and world champ reigning but can be a curse going into olympic
Isabella with triple triple and silver medal
Amber with 3x
those 3 could medal at olympics.
Plus other women Bradie tennel, Sarah everhart, starr , elyce less likely outside but goes very big darkhorse at medaling

Madeline the Russian with quad and triple triple thar won ogm qualifier after never competing internationally since the ban and allowed to comeback

Loena triple triple 2 times medalist seen can medal

2 Koreans
Jia Shin up and comer triple triple
Chaeyeon Kim silver Medal triple triple
Haein Lee triple triple

Sofia Samidkona triple triple

Lars Naka Gutman, Anna Pezzeta battling out for Italy triple triple could post scores

France Lorine Schild, Lea Serna
Canada Madeline Schizas can she skate like she did at team in 2022

Nina peteokina,
Nina pinzarrone
Kimmy respond
Livia Kaiser

Anything can happen
If scores are tight a ur fall two foot landing pop jump fall out spin travel spin or fall for no reason can make difference between medal or none.

 

[SmileHappy34]

I forgot Anastasia Gubanova. Who did well at skate america who has triple triple

 

[Mathematician]

Alysa Liu will not win with a clean program and great presentation, like she did at worlds.

Why not? She easily could. She is outscoring 3A girls with a 2A.

I don't behieve that Kaori Sakamoto will win with a clean program and outstanding skating skills.

Why not? She scores over 230. She objectively is a favourite even without a 3A.

But with a clean program, outstanding skating skills and a triple Axel she might.

Kaori will not jump a triple Axel.

Amber Glenn with two solid triple Axels might contend for the podium. Amber Glenn without a triple Axel won't.

She never even touched 220. It will take at least 2 triple axels and everything else clean.

Other skaters , like the third Japanese, the top Koreans and top Europeans, if they add a triple Axel to what they've already got. they might be a factor

To be honest, not really. A triple axel isn't really saving anyone and none of the Europeans are learning it. It's just Nakai.

Of course, if only one or two ladies go for broke with a triple Axel, and they fail or have other errors and weaknesses, then other scenarios come into play. But if, say, half a dozen ladies come in to Milano prepared with a triple Axel, the odds are that not ALL of them will fail and the one that doesn't will be in the catbird's seat.

Depends what you mean by "fail". The probability that none of them are clean is quite high. If we look at Nakai, Glenn, Rinka and Rion, they are all almost definitely losing to Alyssa and Kaori. Only a clean Nakai is challenging them.

BUT the scores we have seen from her in the Oly Qualifier were not as high as we could have expected

I disagree. 215 for how poorly she skated is really surprising. She got 31.5 PCS for probably her worst SP performance of her career with zero reputation. I didn't expect it at all.

so she'll have to be clean and land the 4T to win, IMO.

This is still true. Well, either 2 axels or the quad. People are saying she will need 4 ultra-c which I still vehemently disagree with. She can beat everyone but Alyssa and Kaori without it, and with even just her 4T she will 100% be outscoring them.

Kaori's rn seems the most consistent overall, but two clean performances have not been enough to beat a clean Ami in France

But she wasn't clean. She was given 2 (!) volatile calls on her spins (one was Lvl 3), she got multiple edge calls, and otherwise dropped levels.

A clean Kaori would beat a clean Nakai based on NHK.

The other skater with a reliable 3A is Glenn; she has two very good programs this year but has been inconsistent.

Even with the 3A it likely isn't enough.

Overall I think it'll be a much more open competition than what Beijing was and whoever lands all their jumps will win.

Pretty much agree with this ultimately.

If Adeliia lands her 4T and goes clean, it'll be Adeliia's. If she does not and Amber lands both her 3As and goes clean, then it's Amber's gold.

Not necessarily. A clean Kaori could still outscore her IMO. Amber's best SP is 78 and her best FS is 148. That's only 226 total. Kaori and even Alyssa can outscore this with triples. If we're being honest we also know Kaori is going to be getting huge bonuses at Olympics. There is nothing in Amber's power she can really do to force a win. She needs others to let her win.

Then Ami; then Kaori.

I just don't understand this. She almost never breaks 200 and only broke 210 once. Nakai cannot be a favourite over Kaori.

Mone is my dark horse.

For podium, perhaps.

 

[SmileHappy34]

If you are going by scores only 3 I past year scored 220. Alysa, Kara, Ami

Madeline hasn't this year .

They are building up.
If going to capable of scoring
All 3 u.s. women amber alysa isabeau
Which more likely 3 of Japan
Mone ami kaori but rinka rion has capacity

The Korean ladies did
I believe Loena did
Bradie did in 2019 team

Yes all ate capacity to score 220 without quad or 3axel

 

[SmileHappy34]

For me a drawback is the backless medals in the Four Continents from the women that have been dominated by Japan and Korea.
The u.s. Men, pairs, dance have more medals in that competition than the u.s. women. Sure the U.s. don't send their top skaters the olympic year, but they do send them off years and they don't medal.
I recall bradie, Ashley poling Edmunds