Alena Kostornaia | Page 326 | Golden Skate

Alena Kostornaia

DizzyFrenchie

DizzyFrenchie

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 9, 2019
Scott512 said:
If a cake and skate at 90% of where she was two seasons ago she will make the Olympic team because the Federation cannot trust the other three top contenders to keep their quads and to be clean. Anna was brilliant when she was not feeling well at Russian Nationals last December but she's not the same skater now and she does not have her quads.

The opportunity there for aliona is golden. She is much less likely to bomb than the other top Russian ladies and I'm sure the Russian Federation knows this. The question now is can Eteri get her back close to 2019 / 2020 form? If she does a spot on the Olympic team is Alionas because the fed can trust her more than the others.
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I don't think it's "will". I hope Anna will heal in time and Sasha put her jumps together and good transitions between. It's not certain but it's possible. Kamila got her puberty in the off-season and she's not back to her former level but she's not "out" either and I remember how Alina recovered in the same circumstances (and how well) along the season.
Yet I agree that all is not lost even without a quad. And I remember too at IdF19 her 3A< and 3Lz! at the Short (she hadn't corrected yet her shallow Lutz edge; so much is demanded from these girls). At Free the judges were less severe to her solo 3A (OTOH her 3A+2T was perfect as it happened to be every time) but it wasn't that good. And it was in November.
I believe (just my personal opinion) that the probability of a 4S is low because as she said herself in her birthday interview, 3A is extreme for her. She needs to focus and maybe this doesn't allow her to divert attention for a 4S while keeping her usual perfection and consistency. If she doesn't have this 4S it does hamper her likelihood of making the Oly team (let's not forget Maiia but Liza would be out with her spin and StSq level problems) but all is not lost, and she may also go to Worlds too, for instance if Anna needs rest. Or to Europeans to defend her title.
I don't know if she can make Team Event Olys team if she's not an individual competitor? Because she would be the evident choice for the Short.
 
Scott512

Scott512

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
I think the team event has only 2 per discipline. It should be 3 per discipline especially because we're istill n the middle of a pandemic and any person or athlete can take ill at any time.

I still hope that aliona can have the best short program in the world. It will be between her and KV.

If Aliona can get back to scoring 230 to 240 points and she has her 3A back she wont need 4s. If she gets it it's a bonus but her 3A has been hard for her to bring back.

The more ultra moves TT has all these other girls doing the more mistake prone it will make all of them. Sasha and KV as great as they are never skate clean and Anna has lost her quads. Aliona rarely falls. Let's see this fall and by nationals if her scores are in the range of what they were 2 years ago. If they are watch out!
 
DizzyFrenchie

DizzyFrenchie

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 9, 2019
Scott512 said:
I think the team event has only 2 per discipline. It should be 3 per discipline especially because we're istill n the middle of a pandemic and any person or athlete can take ill at any time.

I still hope that aliona can have the best short program in the world. It will be between her and KV.

If Aliona can get back to scoring 230 to 240 points and she has her 3A back she wont need 4s. If she gets it it's a bonus but her 3A has been hard for her to bring back.

The more ultra moves TT has all these other girls doing the more mistake prone it will make all of them. Sasha and KV as great as they are never skate clean and Anna has lost her quads. Aliona rarely falls. Let's see this fall and by nationals if her scores are in the range of what they were 2 years ago. If they are watch out!
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In fact a 4S would be a huge bonus because with 7 jump passes and the Zayak rules, without a 4S she must keep a 2A in her Free and it's only 3.3 in base value.
A 4S instead of this 2A would be 9.7 in BV. That's a 6.4 increase. And if we try to figure out the difference in TECs, her 2A deserving a +5 GOE all over the board would give her 4.95 while a successful but not perfect 4S with +2 GOE would give her 11.64, that's +6,69 in TECS. A big difference.
More quads wouldn't be as rewarding because they would replace beautiful expensive triples and as you spotted, would increase the risk of fall, while exhausting her and preventing her from showing her best skate. This is something FS followers don't necessarily perceive. Many quads won't make up in scores for 2 3As + one quad and consistency (and quality, even if recent scoring tend to erase the differences between skaters) because the increase in TECs is marginal when compared to risks of falls and lower PCS (if scored accurately).
 
Scott512

Scott512

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2014
DizzyFrenchie said:
In fact a 4S would be a huge bonus because with 7 jump passes and the Zayak rules, without a 4S she must keep a 2A in her Free and it's only 3.3 in base value.
A 4S instead of this 2A would be 9.7 in BV. That's a 6.4 increase. And if we try to figure out the difference in TECs, her 2A deserving a +5 GOE all over the board would give her 4.95 while a successful but not perfect 4S with +2 GOE would give her 11.64, that's +6,69 in TECS. A big difference.
More quads wouldn't be as rewarding because they would replace beautiful expensive triples and as you spotted, would increase the risk of fall, while exhausting her and preventing her from showing her best skate. This is something FS followers don't necessarily perceive. Many quads won't make up in scores for 2 3As + one quad and consistency (and quality, even if recent scoring tend to erase the differences between skaters) because the increase in TECs is marginal when compared to risks of falls and lower PCS (if scored accurately).
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If she did not leave TT last year maybe Aliona could do all this. But it might be too much for her this season to bring back the 3A which she lost all of last season and to add 4s. I am hoping she shoots for the moon instead of playing it safe. But 1st things 1st let's see if she can score over 230 points points in competition before nationals. I hope AKs confidence comes back being back with EG and TT.
 
D

Decoder

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 5, 2019
Scott512 said:
If she did not leave TT last year maybe Aliona could do all this. But it might be too much for her this season to bring back the 3A which she lost all of last season and to add 4s. I am hoping she shoots for the moon instead of playing it safe. But 1st things 1st let's see if she can score over 230 points points in competition before nationals. I hope AKs confidence comes back being back with EG and TT.
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Only "score over 230 points"? Haha, 260 is over 230 so logically I see no problem :ROFLMAO:. But "score over 240 points" is more encouraging, and actually very doable. :)
 
DizzyFrenchie

DizzyFrenchie

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 9, 2019
Scott512 said:
If she did not leave TT last year maybe Aliona could do all this. But it might be too much for her this season to bring back the 3A which she lost all of last season and to add 4s. I am hoping she shoots for the moon instead of playing it safe. But 1st things 1st let's see if she can score over 230 points points in competition before nationals. I hope AKs confidence comes back being back with EG and TT.
Click to expand...
She would have spared one of her two-week quarantines (not CoViD if she got it at Rostelecom Cup) but I do think she needed this experiment and she wouldn't have fared well if she hadn't. Now she really knows what's good for her and how she effectually does in another environment instead of consuming into incertitude. She is blessed with a curious, imaginative, clever mind and wouldn't have been at rest. She probably quit Novogorsk in a feeling of emergency, I can't imagine her managing to bear with her doubts two more seasons.
 
macy

macy

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2011
it does seem like a lot, and i posted this in RLT, but i think its smart. she had a bad season last year with sickness and injury and missed a lot of it. she lost her 3A and her sparkle. she's gotta get those programs and 3As out there under pressure and get used to competing again. she has to show she means business. it's do or die this season.
 
patee

patee

On the Ice
Joined
Apr 2, 2016
Country
Hungary
macy said:
it does seem like a lot, and i posted this in RLT, but i think its smart. she had a bad season last year with sickness and injury and missed a lot of it. she lost her 3A and her sparkle. she's gotta get those programs and 3As out there under pressure and get used to competing again. she has to show she means business. it's do or die this season.
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That's exactly what I was going to say with other words of course, but that's the point. After all the struggles of last season, all of them, but Aliona in particular needs the pressure and the competitive atmosphere of competitions. Let's just hope and pray for her and everybody's health!
 
nussnacker

nussnacker

one and only
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 16, 2019
Maybe
macy said:
it does seem like a lot, and i posted this in RLT, but i think its smart. she had a bad season last year with sickness and injury and missed a lot of it. she lost her 3A and her sparkle. she's gotta get those programs and 3As out there under pressure and get used to competing again. she has to show she means business. it's do or die this season.
Click to expand...
Aliona also said after SP that she was nervous, because she didn’t compete in such long time. To think about it, she only had 3 competitions last season, so I think partially they might want her to get rid of those nerves.
 
Imagine

Imagine

Medalist
Joined
Feb 22, 2014
Alena's strength has always been consistency. If she's going to build that back up, she's going to need to go to more competitions, so this is a smart strategy. I am worried about her burning out early in the season, but she seems to be in a good place right now...comparatively. I feel like the pressure is not as great on her this season vs the other girls. She's going in as the underdog. The quad jumpers will be waging a war of nerves against one another at the top. It'll be intense and messy I reckon. Alena just needs to consistently go clean and she's right there.
 
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