....Daisuke's and Stephane's programs are much more complex than Johnny's and therefore more prone to mishaps..
That's an interesting observation, Joe.
I find myself remembering some changes over the years. After Urmanov's victory over Boitano in the Olympics, there was some puzzlement among non-core skating fans, i.e., general U.S. TV audience, because Boitano had "skated clean" (I have abandoned hope of seeing it called "skated cleanly" lol; the adverb is a dying breed.), while Urmanov had not, although he had attempted a program which the judges considered more difficult. I found Urmanov's performance beautiful, even with the errors. Perhaps to keep the U.S. audience interested in watching figure skating on TV, the ISU then ordered that judges should not give mental credit for moves not completed successfully. This led to an era where skating cleanly was paramount, and even one fall could unhorse a skater in the standings. I remember Nancy Kerrigan saying something like "I just want to skate clean" before her Olympic adventure, and one heard versions of that a lot, for a long time. That was also a time when a failure to include successful versions of required elements in the short program spelled goodbye to the gold.
Originally, not skating cleanly had served the purpose of encouraging skaters to try new, difficult things, to stretch the sport. I guess the ISU wanted that back in skating, so the design of CoP was such as to bring back the motivation to take risks, rather than to focus only on "skating clean".
For some skaters, the risks pay off, big-time, in points, points, points, for risks that failed. Jeffrey Buttle, in the early days of CoP, was a good example of that. His programs often were very far from clean, but he was high in the standings, for all the what I shall call "attempt points". The tuning of CoP from year to year has lessened the reign of attempt points, but we still do have plenty of them, so it seems that complexity pays off, although Madame Bianchetti does not appear to care for programs full of complex mishaps.
There is an old U.S. radio soap opera that began with a question: "Can a little girl from a mining town find happiness....?" etc. etc. The question now is can a guy with an elegant, clean, very difficult if seemingly less complex, program gain medals at Worlds?
I think he can; I do not know, of course, if he will. That depends upon the given day. We have seen variance, considerable variance, in the scores from event to event of both Stephane and Daisuke. Absolute consistency becomes harder and harder to achieve, with the fine point count upon which a skater's position depends now, not to mention injury, illness, emotional stress in their private lives that may occur concurrently with a competition. Nobody out there is a machine, in spite of the expressions used by some commentators, nobody. They are all too human; that is what makes their performances so moving, the effort required to rise to the moment, despite all obstacles, all problems. It is also part of what makes figure skating so exciting for its core fans; anything can happen; nothing is certain.
The top guys are close in their best scores, but have different approaches to earning those scores, and therefore, different risk factors when they have a bad day.
Judging from the fact that those who cannot jump well are usually advised by their teachers to undertake Ice Dancing or even Pairs, I would say that jumping is, at bottom, considered more difficult than the other elements in figure skating. Because of this, I think that those whose scores depend mainly upon jumping, like Brian Joubert, are more at risk, score-wise, than those whose scores depend largely on spins, musicality, etc., like Stephane Lambiel. What do you think about this, Joe?
I am going to post this without proof-reading; I spent too much time writing it lolololololol so please forgive any errors lol.
