After seeing Alena this weekend, I'm not too sure she could beat Anna right now. Then again, the last time we saw Anna she made a lot of errors as well. With both of them not where they used to be technically, we'd have to look at the components--and that's where the story is told.
Anna has Alena beat on components in the eyes of the judges. Anna is the reigning national and world champ--that comes with a level of respect when it comes to other skaters. It's that whole scoring hierarchy thing. Unfortunately for Alena, she's nowhere near the top. In 2019-2020 she was in the top 2; now she's like 5th or lower. Kamila, Anna, Liza, Sasha and possibly even Daria are ahead of her...yes, even in components.
I'm more confident in Anna beating Alena than I am in Alena beating Anna. I'm sorry but Alena's programs are not good--they need to rework the SP (get rid of the sad/quiet/slow version of "New York, New York" and just go for the bigger version for the whole program) and I'm not sure what they can do to make the FS better--it's just not an Olympic program. With Alena already struggling to get back where she needs to be, it's going to be an uphill battle for her to get the top 3. If she can clean up some of the errors she had there's a shot for her to medal at her next event. She really needs two clean 3As as well as one for the SP--it's the only way for her to put herself back in contention. It's going to be a tall order considering she's not even 100% on regular triples right now (she had URs and qs at SC).
Anna has a little more wiggle room because she's starting the season near the top (based on the end of last season) which means there's less ground for her to cover. She'll get the benefit of the doubt at least for a little bit before the judges start dropping her--Alena doesn't have that luxury. Overall it's sad to see where Triple A is as a whole right now. Everyone thought Anna, Alena and Sasha would be battling for gold in Beijing...at this point it's looking like maybe only one of them will make it on the team...