That’s true, but Kamila will also have a BV advantage in the short.
If Kamila is clean in both programs it would be really hard or near impossible to beat her. If Anna pulls out 3 quads she certainly will have a chance if Kamila has even 1 error. Sasha is capable of beating Kamila, if Sasha is clean with 5 quads. Aliona is capable of scoring very high if she fully returns to her 19-20 shape. She’s getting closer there, but still a lot of work to do. She can certainly capitalize if other 3 don’t deliver perfect skates, if she’s fully back to her best shape.
However, I don’t know how possible it is for all of them to go clean. The jumps and the layouts they are going for are extremely difficult and any of them can make errors. Time will tell and it’s too early to predict things. The only wrong prediction is counting anyone out, they all are gritty and hardworking and can deliver when no one expects them to. I hope they all will deliver the skates that make them proud of themselves.
It also depends on whether they'll artificially deflate Sasha's PCS. It's easy to say Aliona's deflated scores are deserved because she was known for her PCS, and well, she's not there anymore (but she's not as bad as the scores say).
BUT POOR SASHA. Her five quad FS at test skates and even her 1 quad FS at SkAm are both artistically so much better than almost anything we've seen this year. In part because there's actually really choreography in it and not just flailing arms accompanied to crossovers and I'm a massive believer that kicking your leg out or doing some "balletic" arm extension in time to the music is not actually choreo, but also because it's just a great layout. But she never gets the artistic credit she deserves. She got a reputation for being all muscle in juniors and the judges haven't let her escape that even though her only weakness now is really her spins. She should be getting better scores in most PCS categories than Kamila and better GOE on jumps than Kamila and Anna. I'd say Anna and Kamila should get better GOE on spins, but Sasha has the SS, THE TRANSITIONS, the composition. The fact that she's still not breaking 9's in at least those three, but really all of the categories, and that her PCS has improved only 1.5 points between Skate Canada 2019 and Skate America 2021 is literally
tragic on her end considering how much better she obviously is in all areas.
If judges were more objective with this years programs:
--Liza would absolutely win Performance -- by a good margin. I hate her FS but it's not because she isn't engaged and doesn't sell it. No one else could do that program and not look like a clown. It's so unique to her. Anna can probably eclipse this now that she's apparently back in form. A good Aliona would, but I'm not confident in saying she's there this season. Daria and Kamila's SPs could be up here, but they're too removed from the audience, for it, imo. Maia is definitely tied or ahead of Liza for the SP.
--Sasha would win Transitions, Daria and Anna just behind. She has a choreo filled quad program-- never an uninteresting moment in and out of elements.
--Sasha/Daria would win Skating Skills. Kamila, and Anna a little behind. Anna is great at masking weakness, I think she does so here. Aliona's SS is really dependent on her conditioning, so while she does have some excellent SS, I wouldn't put her at the top as they deteriorate rapidly when she's tired.
--Kamila would get +4/5 GOE on spins obviously but would never get higher +1/+2 on jumps. I'd also take some GOE from Aliona for super tight landings. Maia is a hit or miss with landings, so depending on which one it is, I'd also cap her at +1/+2, at least for combos, esp. with quads. Daria's 2A is like a +5 jump every time. So smooth. When she jumps clean its sort of outrageous she's getting 3's from anyone. Anna, Sasha, and Daria all consistently jump better than Kamila, Aliona, and Maia but I don't think scoring reflects that properly. Aliona jumps better than Kamila, Aliona especially has better combos, while I think Maia and Kamila are very close and I also don't think that's reflected.
--Aliona and Anna would win Interpretation of music-- though not Vivaldi. Sasha, Liza, Kamila, tied slightly behind, Anna slightly ahead of Aliona. However, Maia's SP for me beats Aliona and Anna as is, it's just her weakness in the FS still that puts the total impression behind Anna and Aliona. Same with Liza, where she would win FS interpretation for me, but really loses a lot of that in the SP.
--Sasha would win composition, Anna just behind. I'd take marks from Kamila's Bolero because the choreography has nothing to do with the music and as soon as she's off beat from a fall or something, it just looks (and sounds) worse than it already does. Sasha used to get marked down on composition because "the program was empty" until she completed the quads. Exact same qualm here. Nothing going on until the quads are done. Maia's SP would again get great marks from me for composition.
I would also like to personally fire Judge 3 at Skate Canada who gave negative GOE to non-disruptive URs in Liza's and Aliona's performances, gave Mai a ZERO for her CLEAN 3Lz-2T-2Lo combo and then gave Kamila a +1 for the 3A step out-- while giving Aliona a -3 for a near identical step out, and a 0 in the short for a LANDED 3A. AND they gave Bolero a 10.0 for composition? Unforgivably biased judging. Other judges were horrible, too. You would think Aliona splatted on the 3A and 3Lz but the 3Lz was landed and the judges still marked it worse than Kamila's 3A step-out. Unweighted to the element value, Kamila's GOE on the step-out was -1.66. Aliona's UR Lutz was -1.89. HOW.
