I wish those who wish to discuss Christine Brennan: Virtues and Vices and Water Intake During Training and Competitions would set up some dedicated sidebar threads, so this one can stay on track.
This thread shows that there are some posters out there in deep, deep denial over just how shaky is the legal ground that the ROC is trying to defend. I think come Monday when the CAS decision is handed down, there are going to be some extremely upset posters, which will probably take this thread to about 3000 posts. With the IOC, ISU, and WADA all filing petitions against RUSADA (which in a practical sense if not a legal one, means the ROC), that's some heavy hitters who are going to make some strong arguments for consequences and they will have precedent on their side, as near as I can find. I don't think the CAS can ignore their arguments and wipe them all away just because Valieva is a Protected Athlete.
Assuming the B sample has not yet been analyzed, (or has been analyzed and is also positive), I am now pretty certain that CAS will overturn RUSADA's decision to reinstate Valieva, and will allow for her Provisional Suspension. Based on my (admittedly imperfect) reading of WADA rules, I'm going to guess that the most probable consequences are:
-- Valieva will not compete in the Olympic Women's event.
--She will be given a Suspension dating from date of positive test for 6 months (or end of this season, June 30). This will also keep her from competing at Worlds. I strongly doubt that she will get a suspension that goes into next season.
--The ISU will seek to have her European gold rescinded, and elevate placements 2, 3, 4 (Scherbakova, Trusova, Hendrickx).
--The IOC will disqualify her from the Team Event and remove her points from the Team Total. This will drop ROC team down to 4th place and elevate USA, Japan, Canada. (I don't think IOC will DQ the entire ROC team and I also don't think they will recalculate the detail in every team's points.)
--An investigation, probably with WADA oversight, into Sambo-70 will start.
Except for the first item on the list and possibly the Team Event resolution, not all of the above issues will be quickly settled, and I'm sure each one will end up being argued and then appealed in front of the CAS. The next several months will be busy with the fallout from this, a sad ending to a troubled skating season.