Perhaps it was a Freudian slip that when referring to Vincent, your wording from "a Jason fan" is (emphasis added):
"Jason would have won bronze. Why didn't he go? Drat Drat Drat."
Whereas when referring to Jun or Morisi, your wording from "a Jason fan" is (emphases added):
"Jason could have outscored Jun and won bronze. Why didn't he go? Drat Drat Drat"
"Jason could have outscored Morisi and won bronze. Why didn't he go? Drat Drat Drat"
To me, there is a difference in nuance between "would" and "could".
"Would" brings to mind a sense of certainty that something would happen, whereas "could" brings to mind only a possibility that something could happen.
The only certainties here are: (1) that Vincent did win 2022 Worlds bronze; and (2) that Jason chose not to compete.
If Jason had chosen to compete, there is no certainty that he would have won bronze.
And given that Jason himself made the choice not to compete, I see nothing to mourn.