Will Japan Take Home 2 Gold Medals?

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I'm thinking of the possibilities which favor Japan:

Mao Asada

Daisuke Takahashi

I know there is tough competition for all of them but the possibility is there.

Joe

 

[kandidy]

Very very high possibility. I have an inkling that Japan will get gold medal at least one.

 

[skatergirl45]

There is a good chance, however, Japan could also go home with much less than that for we never know how skaters will skate.

I am going to put my money on 2 medals, maybe gold..............

 

[luckyguy]

It is possible but not likely. My favourites are Tomas Verner and Carolina Kostner. They have more talent then Takahashi and Asada and are unbeatable , if they show all what they can.

 

[hazey]

It is possible but not likely. My favourites are Tomas Verner and Carolina Kostner. They have more talent then Takahashi and Asada and are unbeatable , if they show all what they can.

How do you determine who has more talent when whom? Kostner makes me nervous when she's about to jump. To me, talent is being able to make something technically difficult look so easy. What's your criteria?

 

[skatergirl45]

I stand corrected after 4C the odds of Japan coming home with 2 gold medals is definitely higher.

Also, was the last time this happened in 1996 with Michelle Kwan and Todd Eldredge?

Talent is definitely making something difficult look easy but also having ease and flow across the ice. Finally, the 4 minute plus program should go by extremely quickly. Neither Daisuke or Mao have that with me.............

 

[Medusa]

The last time two skaters from the same country swept the singles?

2002 - Slutskaya and Yagudin
1999 - Butyrskaya and Yagudin, in 1999 the Russians had the complete sweep, singles, pairs and dance.

 

[luckyguy]

How do you determine who has more talent when whom? Kostner makes me nervous when she's about to jump. To me, talent is being able to make something technically difficult look so easy. What's your criteria?

Flow and speed are my criteria. The definition of skatergirl45 is perfect.

Talent is definitely making something difficult look easy but also having ease and flow across the ice. Finally, the 4 minute plus program should go by extremely quickly. Neither Daisuke or Mao have that with me.............

.
And what about the quality of the jumps of Carolina Kostner? I saw so many times her breathtaking 3F-3T combination, every time made so easy. Her 3L is also the best. Only one lady is as much as talented as Carolina Kostner: You-Na Kim.

 

[emma]

Talent is definitely making something difficult look easy but also having ease and flow across the ice. Finally, the 4 minute plus program should go by extremely quickly. Neither Daisuke or Mao have that with me.............

it is so interesting how to me how subjective valuations differ so much; I just watched Mao's LP and it was over before it started for me (in a good way - like it just went by so fast) and I have a similar feeling for Takahashi when he's on. Now, Buttle and Lambiel could make mistakes and mistakes and I'm still enthralled, yet when others do so it feels like 4+ minutes from a hellish eternity.

 

[Turtleberry]

But how does COP define talent? Takahashi and Asada seem to have plenty of it according to COP's definition......

......so, back on topic, I think that Japan has a great shot at taking home at least one gold medal (Takahashi) with a second gold medal dependly greatly on the health of Yu-Na Kim.

 

[Mathman]

It is possible but not likely. My favourites are Tomas Verner and Carolina Kostner.

Would you rate Verner's chances ahead of Lambiel and Joubert?

 

[chuckm]

Flow and speed are my criteria. The definition of skatergirl45 is perfect. .
And what about the quality of the jumps of Carolina Kostner? I saw so many times her breathtaking 3F-3T combination, every time made so easy. Her 3L is also the best. Only one lady is as much as talented as Carolina Kostner: You-Na Kim.

Ah, but Carolina Kostner is incredibly inconsistent. Carolina's 3F+3T and 3L are very good, but her 3Z is neither good nor consistent, and her 2A is downright scary. Her footwork is pretty good, but her spins and spiral are only OK.

But even at her best, Carolina is not in the same league as Asada and Kim. Carolina doubles and/or pops jumps in every FS. No skater can afford to do that and come out ahead of the top Asian ladies.

 

[Tinymavy15]

Quite likely. Mao should win this thing... she has been skating so beautifully lately I hope she can keep going. Disulkie could easily win as well. Esp if he lands the quad in the SP. I doubt that he will risk it though. I clean 3/3 with that techno swan stuff could easily land him in first after the short.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

it is so interesting how to me how subjective valuations differ so much; I just watched Mao's LP and it was over before it started for me (in a good way - like it just went by so fast) and I have a similar feeling for Takahashi when he's on. Now, Buttle and Lambiel could make mistakes and mistakes and I'm still enthralled, yet when others do so it feels like 4+ minutes from a hellish eternity.

Good post Emma but maybe I should have said good senses. I also feel that way when a skater is messing up. The 4 minutes feel like 'when will it end for the poor dear?', but the skater knows that too, and would like to just go home right then and there but the rules say he has to continue and suck up the embarrasment. They could change that rule and let the skater leave when he wants, imo.

Joe

 

[oleada]

Ah, but Carolina Kostner is incredibly inconsistent. Carolina's 3F+3T and 3L are very good, but her 3Z is neither good nor consistent, and her 2A is downright scary. Her footwork is pretty good, but her spins and spiral are only OK.

I agree with most of your post, except for one thing - I think Carolina has a great spiral. The deepness of her edges, the speed she has in them...who cares about contortionist positions when you have edges like that. :yes:

 

[luckyguy]

Would you rate Verner's chances ahead of Lambiel and Joubert?

Yes. Remember the European Championships 2008 in Croatia.

1 Tomas VERNER CZE 232.67 SP:1 FS:1
2 Stephane LAMBIEL SUI 225.24 SP:3 FS:2
3 Brian JOUBERT FRA 219.45 SP:2 FS:4

 

[Medusa]

Yes. Remember the European Championships 2008 in Croatia.

1 Tomas VERNER CZE 232.67 SP:1 FS:1
2 Stephane LAMBIEL SUI 225.24 SP:3 FS:2
3 Brian JOUBERT FRA 219.45 SP:2 FS:4

Yeah, well Joubert looked very ill and was certainly not on the top of his game - but he had 6 weeks now. And Lambiel is always best at the end of the season - since 2003/2004 he always finished higher at the world championships than at the European championships.

Don't get me wrong, I like Verner - I think there is a certain creativity and originality about him. He is not Lambiel but he doesn't look like a Morosov-Nichol-Wilson-clone either, I love the way he incorporated the Martial-Arts moves in his program this year. What I don't like so much is his rather sloppy posture. He has such great flow across the ice but he looks a bit too relaxed to me - he often has one or two stumbles in his footwork.

He is also not very consistent and had to rely on Lambiel and Joubert making mistakes and Voronov screwing up the short. Lambiel nearly beat him in the long despite Lambiel's problem on one Triple-Triple, one underrotation and no Triple Axel. Verner would need a performance like last year at worlds (two quads, triple axel) without the fall on the triple flip to beat a axel-less but apart from that flawless Lambiel. If Lambiel gets the Triple Axel back till worlds and pulls off something that I like to call a worlds-2006-long-program - he would beat Verner (and hopefully also Takahashi) by quite a margin even if Verner was clean.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

In my opinion I think Tomas has joined the elite quad club and should be considered a potential winner at Worlds, but I would not predict it. I feel there are too many Men in the mix to really pick out a winner.

Potential Winners: Tomas, Daisuke, Brian, Stephane. I will predict one of them will win.

Potential Podiumists: All of the above, plus Jeffrey, Patrick, Evan, Johnny, Jeremy.

I think anyone who is predicting a winner is predicting from the heart

The Thireen Points Solution

. I am hoping that Johnny and Evan will total out 13 points (or less) as I am sure Canadian fans are hoping that Jeffrey and Patrick total out 13 points (or less).

Joe

 

[Medusa]

Potential Podiumists: All of the above, plus Jeffrey, Patrick, Evan, Johnny, Jeremy.

Jeremy who? Jeremy Abbott isn't participating as far as I know. Is there another Jeremy?

I agree with most of your predictions - but I just don't think that Verner has any chance to win the gold medal. Podium - yes, and that will be a huge success for him if he does that.

I think we should do a "real" prediction thread and after the worlds we crown the person who predicted best - I'll design a winner-banner! 10 points for predicting the world champion right, 15 points for correct prediction of silver-medal winner (harder to predict, especially in women and pairs), 15 points for bronze-medal winner, 20 point bonus if you predicted the entire podium correctly, for every correctly predicted placement from 4 to 10 another 15 points, if you predicted the top ten correctly (not the placements, just who is in it, like in Joe's thread) a 20 point bonus. Then we crown four winners for each discipline and the overall winner. Okay, I do have a life and am just rambling.

 

[jennylovskt]

In my opinion I think Tomas has joined the elite quad club and should be considered a potential winner at Worlds, but I would not predict it. I feel there are too many Men in the mix to really pick out a winner.

Potential Winners: Tomas, Daisuke, Brian, Stephane. I will predict one of them will win.

Potential Podiumists: All of the above, plus Jeffrey, Patrick, Evan, Johnny, Jeremy.

I think anyone who is predicting a winner is predicting from the heart

The Thireen Points Solution

. I am hoping that Johnny and Evan will total out 13 points (or less) as I am sure Canadian fans are hoping that Jeffrey and Patrick total out 13 points (or less).

Joe

Wow, that was a bold prediction. I don't think there is any chance for Verner to be gold. Takahashi or Lambiel will be gold this time. I agree that Verner has a great chance to be on the podium though.

And I don't think Jeffrey and Patrick has any chance to be on the podium. Jeremy will not be there, Stephen will be there, but Stephen will not have a chance to be on the podium either. It's bold to predict Johnny to be on the podium, but Johnny has much greater chance than Jeffrey, Patrick, and Stephen.