Wait...where did she jump a 3Lz? I've never heard or seen of that ever.
2022-23 Japanese Women's Figure Skating
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- Mar 21, 2018
Oops. It was 3Lo+2T. The 3Lz isn’t due yet.
There’s a pattern to which Rika has been adding her jumps. At Sectionals, she only had the 3S in the free and just did doubles to qualify. Two triples. At Japan Open, she added a 3T. Three triples. At Skate Canada, she put the 3T in combination and added a 3Lo. Five triples. In Espoo, she put the 3Lo in combination and added the 3F. Six triples.
Going by this, I think by Nationals she puts the 3F in combination and adds the 3Lz. Seven triples. I think she’ll go for a 3F+3T in the SP, too. She’s already proven to be competitive with the watered-down layouts, but a 3F+3T in the SP and a 7-triple free is top 5 at Nationals, maybe a podium.
Rika has the 10th highest score among Japanese ladies. The junior-juniors can’t go to Worlds and their scores are going to be significantly lower than their international scores anyway. The junior-seniors (Yoshida, Chiba) may be another story, but I think she beats Chiba on a good day. Kawabe and Sumiyoshi too.
Soooo…3-5 for Rika? Yeah, I think that looks about right.
With a 3Lz in the short and the free (a bit ambitious I know), and with no mistakes (I'm staring at that short, and her 3Lz used to be quite reliable), and with sensible judging (ffs), there's no reason why she doesn't win the whole thing. I don't trust this judging though; Kaori gets so much generosity from the judges, especially with that lutz of hers (it's not a flat edge, it's an inside edge) and the components at Espoo were inexplicable at best.
I am wondering if she should work on that 3A to actually qualify for 4CC and/or Worlds. Trying to build up to post-nationals doesn't work if she doesn't qualify for them.
I am wondering if she should work on that 3A to actually qualify for 4CC and/or Worlds. Trying to build up to post-nationals doesn't work if she doesn't qualify for them.
I heard that Rika plans to add one 3Lz to free skate for Japanese Nationals. If she skates cleanly, I can see her in the 4-6 range. That would be an accomplishment, as she would be in the tier 2 team for next year with two GP spots. I think the goal might be to comeback for 2023 season with 3A… 
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- Mar 22, 2018
The thing is Mone Chiba and Hanna Yoshida are eligible for 4cc and senior world and they can place above Rika if they are clean. If Rika brings back her lutz and she is clean in both programs she can place easily above Yuhana Yokoi, Rino Matsuike, Mana Kawabe and even Rinka watanabe if she makes some mistakes but I'm not sure she can place above Mai Mihara, Hanna Yoshida (who are at the best shape) Kaori sakamoto (who japanese federation love most) and Mone Chiba ( who has good components and overall skating even tho she lacks consistency a little), it's gonna be a really interesting nationals
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- Mar 21, 2018
Rika definitely isn’t placing above Sakamoto and Mihara at Nationals. Not just because she’s not at full strength, but because they’ve gained a lot of momentum while she’s lost that in her absence. Skaters like Yokoi won’t beat Rika as she is now. After all, Rika beat Yokoi at Skate Canada.
If you remove Little Mao and Nakai, Rika’s behind seven skaters. Two of them are Sakamoto and Mihara. The other five are Watanabe, Yoshida, Chiba, Kawabe, and Sumiyoshi. I think Yoshida is the only skater she doesn’t beat at her current level. The others aren’t really scoring that much higher than her internationally even now. Two clean skates with a 3F+3T in the SP and a 3Lz in the long should beat them easily. She’ll have the same technical as them at that point.
Rika’s shooting for a 210+ score at Nationals. Reading between the lines, that means she’s not shooting for top 6. That’s a podium, which means she’s trying to make the World’s team. Thatta girl!
(My hair is going to be completely white by Christmas.)
To be honest, I’m hoping for a Sakamoto-Mihara-Yoshida Worlds team and that Nakai goes to Junior Worlds with Little Mao. Rika goes to 4CC if she places 4th. That’ll be perfect and better for my hair. But I’ll cheer Rika on regardless. Her return is coming along splendidly.
If you remove Little Mao and Nakai, Rika’s behind seven skaters. Two of them are Sakamoto and Mihara. The other five are Watanabe, Yoshida, Chiba, Kawabe, and Sumiyoshi. I think Yoshida is the only skater she doesn’t beat at her current level. The others aren’t really scoring that much higher than her internationally even now. Two clean skates with a 3F+3T in the SP and a 3Lz in the long should beat them easily. She’ll have the same technical as them at that point.
Rika’s shooting for a 210+ score at Nationals. Reading between the lines, that means she’s not shooting for top 6. That’s a podium, which means she’s trying to make the World’s team. Thatta girl!
(My hair is going to be completely white by Christmas.)
To be honest, I’m hoping for a Sakamoto-Mihara-Yoshida Worlds team and that Nakai goes to Junior Worlds with Little Mao. Rika goes to 4CC if she places 4th. That’ll be perfect and better for my hair. But I’ll cheer Rika on regardless. Her return is coming along splendidly.
OMG! Your analysis is bang on with what I was thinking
; Also, those girls are who I want to go to Worlds, Jr. Worlds and 4CC.
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- Mar 22, 2018
I'm gonna say Mao, Hanna and Ami will make the podium at jgpf
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- Mar 22, 2018
Hanna 
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- Mar 22, 2018
Ok now I don't feel so secure with the junior ladies as before, I don't know what happened in this competition but things didn't really work for they, Mao still won gold but with mistakes, Ami placed out of the podium, and Hanna really had a meltdown here, figure skating it's so umpredictable
Well, I wouldn't be too sure about Rika vs Hana just yet. Hana seriously messed up her short and her free, so there is no guarantee that Rika doesn't beat her.
In fact, out of all the seniors, Rika really just doesn't beat Kaori and Mai at the moment without her 3A, and even that is purely based on reputational scoring. She won the TES in the free at Espoo with four triples and not even repeating a 3F, because she doesn't have rotation or edge problems. If she skates a clean short, which is appearing elusive for her right now, and maintains a clean free, there is no reason she doesn't beat either of Kaori or Mai if any of them make a mistake.
Rika is currently skating a 2A+2T, 3T in her free. Put a 3Lz there and it'll be a 2A+3T, 3Lz. 2T = 1.3 (ish), 3Lz = 5.90. Add on GOEs, and that's a 5-6 point bump in TES, when she's already managed to win a free on TES. Nothing is set in stone yet.
I still think it's a little strange to not aim for 4CC and Worlds, given that her season is basically over if she doesn't qualify for those (imagine then going to Challenge Cup with a 3A and scoring 230 when no one at Worlds hits 220). I suppose she wants to stay healthy, and I'm sure she has her reasons, but surely she could have worked on her 3F and 3Lz simultaneously for Espoo, and work on a 3A for Nationals?
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- Mar 22, 2018
3A its an ultra c element, it's no so easy to bring back it again compared with the other triples, I hope Rika restores first her triple lutz and make a clean performance with 7 triples in the free, if she is clean it may be enough for her to qualified at least to 4cc, it's much more important for her to stay healthy and regain her reputation
Ami, Mao, Kaori and Hana
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- Mar 22, 2018
I'm starting to think Italy was not a good place for the skaters, many mistakes for everyone
She landed 3As just fine when she couldn't jump a 3Lz. I wouldn't even say it was particularly difficult for her in 2019-2020. We'll have to see how much has changed in three years.
GPF results were...interesting. If Kaori skates like this again, JSF will have to decide whether she even gets sent to 4CC or Worlds (or invoke the body-of-work clause). Kaori, Mai and Rinka all seem quite susceptible to making mistakes, so Nationals will be even more unpredictable. On pure TES, Rika should still beat the three of them (ironically, and as it seems, quite comfortably with a 3Lz), but will the reputational score be too much to overcome?
On the juniors side, I was impressed to see Mao land the 4T, though her consistency with both the 3A and 4T have been a bit iffy. If she lands neither of them, she probably doesn't overtake the seniors. With only one of them, reputational scoring might count against her. Hana had a rough time. Ami was hit hard with underrotations; that will cost her at senior Nationals.
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- Dec 5, 2015
That was a weird competition. It doesn't necessarily inspire confidence that all the Japanese women will hit at Nationals. Kaori always seems to struggle technically when she gets good choreography. She struggled when she had the great "No Roots" SP, too. Mai won but mostly because she is reliable and the technical panel seemed to be happy to help her by ignoring most of her URs and calling the URs of others 
. Rinka was good ( also got helped by the technical panel) in the SP but struggled in the LP. In junior woman, my favorite Hanna and the age eligible one bombed. Not a great weekend for Japanese women not named Mao.
As this relates to Rika, to go to Worlds, she doesn't need her 3A. She just needs a clean 3/3 in the SP and another triple in the LP. No one in the senior field looks too impressive right now.
. Rinka was good ( also got helped by the technical panel) in the SP but struggled in the LP. In junior woman, my favorite Hanna and the age eligible one bombed. Not a great weekend for Japanese women not named Mao.As this relates to Rika, to go to Worlds, she doesn't need her 3A. She just needs a clean 3/3 in the SP and another triple in the LP. No one in the senior field looks too impressive right now.
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- Mar 9, 2013
Congrats to Mai's winning of the GPF!! (Kao..
)
With the summing up of the GP events, now we come down to this: by the WC selection criteria of JSF -
1) The winner of All Japan Nationals - TBD
2) A spot selection from skaters who fulfill the following condition:
A) The podium placements (2nd, 3rd) at Nationals - TBD
B) The top 2 placements at GPF -> Mai, Rinka
C) The top 3 placements of ISU best score ranking (by the end of Nationals) -> Kaori, Mai, Rinka
3) A 2nd spot, selected from the following:
A) Anyone left out of criteria (2)
B) The top 3 placements of ISU world standing (by the end of Nationals) -> Kaori, Mai, Rinka
C) The top 3 placements of ISU season's world ranking (by the end of Nationals) -> Rinka, Mai, Kaori
D) The skater who had earned the best total scores from international competitions and the assigned domestic competitions -> Kaori (221.75), Mai (219.78), Rinka (218.89)
Like what I've said elsewhere, I think it will be possible for a Jr. skater to land on the podium at the upcoming National. But we also have to consider that all the jr. skaters who are invited to Nationals this year will have to train for a 2nd set of Sr. programs. Given that Jr. skaters don't do the full set of step sequence in their FS programs, I would wonder how that's going to affect their performances at the Sr. level competition (and also PCS-wise).
It went as I predicted: I wanted Mai to win the GPF, and Kaori please fight back strong to win the Nationals!
)With the summing up of the GP events, now we come down to this: by the WC selection criteria of JSF -
1) The winner of All Japan Nationals - TBD
2) A spot selection from skaters who fulfill the following condition:
A) The podium placements (2nd, 3rd) at Nationals - TBD
B) The top 2 placements at GPF -> Mai, Rinka
C) The top 3 placements of ISU best score ranking (by the end of Nationals) -> Kaori, Mai, Rinka
3) A 2nd spot, selected from the following:
A) Anyone left out of criteria (2)
B) The top 3 placements of ISU world standing (by the end of Nationals) -> Kaori, Mai, Rinka
C) The top 3 placements of ISU season's world ranking (by the end of Nationals) -> Rinka, Mai, Kaori
D) The skater who had earned the best total scores from international competitions and the assigned domestic competitions -> Kaori (221.75), Mai (219.78), Rinka (218.89)
Like what I've said elsewhere, I think it will be possible for a Jr. skater to land on the podium at the upcoming National. But we also have to consider that all the jr. skaters who are invited to Nationals this year will have to train for a 2nd set of Sr. programs. Given that Jr. skaters don't do the full set of step sequence in their FS programs, I would wonder how that's going to affect their performances at the Sr. level competition (and also PCS-wise).
It went as I predicted: I wanted Mai to win the GPF, and Kaori please fight back strong to win the Nationals!
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- Mar 21, 2018
Yoshida skated very poorly and she needs to redeem herself at Nationals. Nakai, on the other hand, put out two strong skates. She wasn’t off the podium because she skated poorly. She placed fourth because it was a deep field and most everyone brought their A game. She was only a point away from bronze.
Little Mao is strong competition, but (as I pointed out in another thread), she’s not as far ahead as it may appear on paper. Even so, it doesn’t matter who the second pick at Junior Worlds is. Every single girl that competed in the Junior Grand Prix would make the top 10 easily and half of them are podium threats. There’s a reason the JGPF consisted of only Japanese and Korean girls. I’m not worried about the juniors at all.
The embarrassing GPF results showed that the Nationals podium is wide open. Rika can beat any of these girls if they skate like that. Reputation can’t save a hot mess. Rika doesn’t need a 3A, especially after what we’ve seen. That was the worse Sakamoto skated in almost two years. I think it was a one-off, but she’s still on a downward trajectory. Her scores are getting lower, not higher. I don’t consider Watanabe a podium threat at Nationals or top 5. Almost all of the Grand Prix juniors can beat her and Sumiyoshi - amusingly - always seems to best her in a head-to-head. Mihara’s consistent, but she’s the sort that skates her worse on home ice. There’s a reason she’s never been to Worlds.
…and she probably would have it Japan actually had a “body of work” clause. They’re sticklers for sticking with Nationals results unless a junior (regardless of age) lands on the podium. This is something I’m grateful for. Body of work should only be used if someone skated poorly all season and just happened to have the skate of her life at an (in?)convenient time and beat a more consistent skater with better results. It shouldn’t be used as a failsafe to protect certain skaters.
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- Oct 20, 2017
Mai was at the 2017 Worlds, she finished in 5th place. And she has 2 gold, a silver and bronze 4CC and now GPF gold.
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