Split thread - Grand Prix Picks discussion

[PolymerBob]

If it was up to USFSA, or the girls themselves, they would be kept separate until the final. The problem here is that I think one of the networks plan to broadcast Skate America. I think it's NBC. If the network or the sponsors who show the commercials during the broadcast have any say, they will want as big an audience draw as possible. And I can't think of a bigger draw than all three teen terrors in one competition.

 

[nadster]

As for ladies, Skate Canada would definitely want Carolina Kostner. That way, Joannie would have a great chance at winning. Trophee Bompard, Cup of China, and Cup of Russia wouldn't have a clear favorite in that regard since they don't have a strong lady. NHK Trophy will choose Mao Asada and pass Yukari Nakano to give her a chance of winning somewhere else. SA has to pick two non-American seeded skaters and has to be stretegic in the pick. If the host nations can deal with each other, my guess is CoR, CoC, and TB will get "left-overs".

So, my prediction is
SA: Yu-Na Kim, Sarah Meier
SC: Carolina Kostner, Joannie Rochette
CoC: Mao Asada, Sarah Meier
TB: Carolina Kostner, YUkari Nakano
CoR: Yu-NA Kim, Yukari Nakano
NHK: Mao Asada, Joannie Rochette

Hard to predict as we don't know yet order the countries will get to pick the skaters. That has a huge influence. Safe to say that the home countries with contenders will probably want Kostner and/or Meier to go against their home stars as Kostner and Meier tend to be the weakest skaters early in the season among the seeded skaters.

SA will definitely want Kostner and Meier (if they can get both). They usually aren't as strong early in the season and give the non-seeded Americans a great chance to win.

SC will want Kostner.

NHK will want Meier against Asada. They will hope for a Kostner/Nakano combo at one of the GPs in Russia, France or China ( the countries less concerned about ladies picks). It is more likely to happen if NHK is willing to host ( if draw order permits) an ideal combination for Russia( pairs and dance), or France ( dance) , or China ( pairs).

 

[merrybari]

Two questions.

Refresh: How does a skater become "seeded?"

Any predictions of where the men will be assigned? Thinking of Lysacek who, if I understand correctly, is guaranteed only one spot by virtue of his standing in the top 24 ranking as he was forced to WD from Worlds so has no placement there.

I have no doubt he will ultimately get two placements, just wondering how that works. Input please.

Thanks

 

[MissIzzy]

Okay, perhaps there would be fewer questions if we had a list on hand of how US skaters stand for Grand Prix invites. Note that this list does not consider who might decide to do the JGP instead, or any rule changes the ISU might make this summer.

Seeded:
Men: Johnny Weir, cannot be assigned to the same events as Jeffrey Buttle or Brian Joubert
Dance: Tanith Belbin and Benjamin Agosto, Meryl Davis & Charlie White, cannot be assigned to the same event as Faiella & Scali

Guaranteed two events:
Men: Stephen Carriere, Jeremy Abbott
Ladies: Kimmie Meissner, Bebe Liang
Pairs: Rena Inoue & John Balwin, Brooke Castile & Benjamin Okolski
Dance: Kimberly Navarro & Brent Bommentre

Guaranteed one event(more likely than not to get two):
Men: Evan Lysacek, Brandon Mroz, Adam Rippon, Ryan Bradley, Armin Mahbanoozadeh
Ladies: Ashley Wagner, Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu, Emily Hughes, Rachael Flatt, Katrina Hacker
Pairs: Keauna McLachlin & Rockne Brubaker, Jessica Rose Paetsch & John Nuss, Tiffany Vise & Derek Trent, Amanda Evora & Mark Ladwig, Meeran Trombley & Laureano Ibarra
Ice Dancing: Emily Samuelson & Evan Bates, Jennifer Wester & Daniil Barantsev

Also eligible for invites:
Men: Douglas Razzano, Austin Kanallakan, Scott Smith, Tommy Steenberg, Alexander Johnson, Eliot Halverson, Richard Dornbush, Curran Oi
Ladies: Alissa Czisny, Kristine Musademba, Alexe Gilles, Chrissy Hughes, Blake Rosenthal, Juliana Cannarozzo
Pairs: Chelsi Guillen & Danny Curzon, Bianca Butler & Joseph Jacobson(are Marissa Castelli & Simon Shapnir and Meg Byrne & Nathan Bartholomay still together?)
Ice Dancing: Madison & Keiffer Hubbell, Shannon Wingle & Ryan Devereaux(I don't *think* they've split), Rachel Tibbetts & Collin Brubaker, Isabella Cannuscio & Ian Lorello, Lynn Kriengkrairut & Logan Guiletti-Schmidt

Everyone else can only be invited to Skate America.

 

[Mathman]

Two questions.

Refresh: How does a skater become "seeded?"

By finishing in the top 6 at worlds.

Any predictions of where the men will be assigned? Thinking of Lysacek who, if I understand correctly, is guaranteed only one spot by virtue of his standing in the top 24 ranking as he was forced to WD from Worlds so has no placement there.

I have no doubt he will ultimately get two placements, just wondering how that works. Input please.

As I understand it, there is a random draw among the 6 event coordinators to see who gets to pick first, second, etc. Whoever gets the long straw can choose Lysacek if they want him. If they choose someone else, then the next event has its chance.

For skaters who are "guaranteed" one assignment, I don't know exactly what happens if no one chooses him. Perhaps the last to choose must take him. Or maybe there are so few skaters in each of the categories (see ChuckM's post quoted at the top of this page) that everyone in the category must be chosen.

If the host nations can deal with each other, my guess is CoR, CoC, and TB will get "left-overs".

Hard to guess. As Nadster points out, it all depends on the order of selection determined by the random draw. If CoR, CoC, and TB get to choose first, it might be the others who get the leftovers.

If it was up to USFSA, or the girls themselves, they would be kept separate until the final. The problem here is that I think one of the networks plan to broadcast Skate America. I think it's NBC. If the network or the sponsors who show the commercials during the broadcast have any say, they will want as big an audience draw as possible. And I can't think of a bigger draw than all three teen terrors in one competition.

I agree! This would be a tempting consideration. Maybe the USFSA is ready to srike out on an independent course, screw the ISU.

If they could build interest in figure skating in the U.S. back up to where it was in the 1990s, maybe they wouldn't care who made the Grand Prix Finals. Casual TV viewers in the U.S. don't even know that the other five events of the Grand Prix exist, but they might accidentally click on Skate America coverage if nothing else is on, especially if NBC advertises the event as part of its Olympic build-up.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Reading these posts, it seems we are speculating on much. No problem but we need more information especially how they choose the skater to fill the matrix other than the Gotenborg podium.

Joe

 

[nadster]

Two questions.

Refresh: How does a skater become "seeded?"

Any predictions of where the men will be assigned? Thinking of Lysacek who, if I understand correctly, is guaranteed only one spot by virtue of his standing in the top 24 ranking as he was forced to WD from Worlds so has no placement there.

I have no doubt he will ultimately get two placements, just wondering how that works. Input please.

Thanks

The top 6 skaters from last worlds are known as seeded skaters. Each GP will have one skater ( and only one) who medalled at worlds and one skater ( and only one) who finished in the 4-6 range.

My men's predictions about placements if the all hosting federations get their way as much as possible. Of course the draw order could completely change this around.


The top 3 at Worlds

1. Buttle - Probably will get SC as World Champion. Tends to skate well in Asia but NHK won't want him ( for obvious reasons) so SC will probably want him in Cup of China.

2. Joubert- Definitely will get the GP in France. I see Skate America as his other GP as Weir generally prefers not to do a GP in America.

3. Weir - Usually prefers Russia for a GP to Skate America. Besides I SA will want Lysachek winning there. So Russia and Japan for him.

The next 3 ( 4-6 ) range

4. Takahashi - Will get NHK for sure. Will not be the skater that other federations will want to pick so I see him going to China . However the Japanese federation will likely hope Russia picks him ( won't happen though). China/NHK is my prediction

5. Lambiel - As he is not a great early season skater, will probably be the most in demand from all the federations save China. Pretty the hosts with the first 2 picks. Unless they get Van Der Perren.

6. Kevin Van Der Perren - Another skater that will be selected early by the hosting nations as he can lose to the home guys via PCS.

Won't go any further as the selection of the other skaters guaranteed spots will depend on how these first 6 are placed.

 

[Mathman]

Reading these posts, it seems we are speculating on much. No problem but we need more information especially how they choose the skater to fill the matrix other than the Gotenborg podium.

Actually, I think the procedure for making these choices is pretty straightforward. Here it is (for last year); scroll down to page 3.

http://isu.sportcentric.net/db//files/serve.php?id=579

What we don't know yet is (a) wich federations will win the draw and get to choose first, second, etc. in each category. And (b) what strategy, if any, the host federations will consider in giving their skaters the best chance to win.

On that last point, I am not at all sure that a skater's long-term interest is best served by trying to water down the competition. If I were, for instance, Rachael Flatt, I might say: "Bring 'em on! Mao, Yu-na, Mirai, Caroline Z, Kimmie -- if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best."

 

[merrybari]

Thanks everyone for your insights. That helps me to understand - as much as one can understand anything that has to do with ISU!

 

[gkelly]

Guaranteed one event(more likely than not to get two):
Men: Evan Lysacek, Brandon Mroz, Adam Rippon, Ryan Bradley, Armin Mahbanoozadeh
Ladies: Ashley Wagner, Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu, Emily Hughes, Rachael Flatt, Katrina Hacker
Pairs: Keauna McLachlin & Rockne Brubaker, Jessica Rose Paetsch & John Nuss, Tiffany Vise & Derek Trent, Amanda Evora & Mark Ladwig, Meeran Trombley & Laureano Ibarra
Ice Dancing: Emily Samuelson & Evan Bates, Jennifer Wester & Daniil Barantsev

Also eligible for invites:
Men: Douglas Razzano, Austin Kanallakan, Scott Smith, Tommy Steenberg, Alexander Johnson, Eliot Halverson, Richard Dornbush, Curran Oi
Ladies: Alissa Czisny, Kristine Musademba, Alexe Gilles, Chrissy Hughes, Blake Rosenthal, Juliana Cannarozzo
Pairs: Chelsi Guillen & Danny Curzon, Bianca Butler & Joseph Jacobson(are Marissa Castelli & Simon Shapnir and Meg Byrne & Nathan Bartholomay still together?)
Ice Dancing: Madison & Keiffer Hubbell, Shannon Wingle & Ryan Devereaux(I don't *think* they've split), Rachel Tibbetts & Collin Brubaker, Isabella Cannuscio & Ian Lorello, Lynn Kriengkrairut & Logan Guiletti-Schmidt

I would expect that some of the younger skaters listed above will be assigned to JGP rather than GP. Only pairs are allowed to do both.

2 Gold medals.- 6 events. 3possibilites

1 Gold; 1 Silver- 6 events. 6possibilities

2 Silver medals- 6 events. 6 possibilities

l Bronze and 1 Gold.- 6 events. 6possibilites

Anything less than above has no possibilities.

I'm not sure what you mean by "6 possibilities."

Suppose on the one hand that three different skaters win gold at both their events. They will all be guaranteed to qualify for the final, and they have taken all the gold medals available. The other three skaters who qualify may each have some combination of silver and bronze medals, or at least one of them may actually qualify with silver at one event and fourth or fifth at another, if the additional available medals are distributed among many different skaters all with fairly inconsistent results.

Suppose on the other hand that the six different events are won by six different skaters. Will those be the six who qualify for the final? Maybe. Or maybe at least one of the winners will have to withdraw from the second event, "wasting" a gold medal in terms of GPF qualification so that someone will have to qualify with no gold . . . and there may be no one who won two silvers either. Or maybe one of the winners will skate badly at the other event and place low enough that someone else with a second and fourth or two thirds will earn more points.

 

[Medusa]

3. Weir - Usually prefers Russia for a GP to Skate America. Besides I SA will want Lysachek winning there. So Russia and Japan for him.

CoR and NHK is about 5 days apart? May be a bit unfair to send him to these two. I think he may get the same assignments as last season, CoC and CoR.

Lysacek never won Skate America, because they always invited a Japanese guy to win over Lysacek - last season Takahashi, the one before Oda and two seasons ago Takahashi...

 

[chuckm]

I noticed last year that the only cases where skaters did competitions back-to-back was when skaters got 2nd events due to a withdrawal. Apparently the ISU has guidelines which discourage assigning skaters to consecutive events. This may be because if the skater incurs and injury at the first event, there will likely be no time to fill the vacancy at the second.

So forget about Johnny Weir being assigned to Russia and NHK. Won't happen. But China and Russia (like last year) is doable.

 

[Mathman]

Lysacek never won Skate America, because they always invited a Japanese guy to win over Lysacek - last season Takahashi, the one before Oda and two seasons ago Takahashi...

I guess that's one way to look at it. I would say rather that Lysacek hasn't won Slate America yet because he hasn't skated well enough.

This year USFS could avoid the Japanese curse by inviting Joubert from the top three, Lambiel from 3-6, Voronov or Chan from 6-12, and Verner from the top-ranked list or season's best.

By beating all of those skaters, not only would Lysacek win first place honors, but also he would knock some of his chief rivals down into the silver, bronze and below categories!

To me, that's the best strategy. Get up in the face of the other top guns from the get-go, don't hide and try to sneak into the finals by the back door.

Correct, and that was a nail biter. I forget who lost out.

Yeah, that was a great series because it all came down to the last event, NHK, with everything still up for grabs.

As I recall, Carolina Koster won NHK and made the finals. Meier finished second and was bumped by Zhang (a gold for Meier would have put her in the finals), and Miki Ando finished fourth behind Nana Tekeda (third would have put Ando in ahead of Zhang.)

The strangest year was 2005-06, when Sokolova made the finals with a first (over Alissa Czisny at Skate America) and a sixth (Eric Bompard: Asada was first and Cohen second.)

Ando and Rochette both made the finals with a first and a 4th, and Arakawa made it with two bronzes.

 

[merrybari]

I Get up in the face of the other top guns from the get-go, don't hide and try to sneak into the finals by the back door.

Without a doubt this is what Evan would prefer!! Hope USFS sees it the same way.

 

[sillylionlove]

I should be fun next year around this time when we are trying to figure out the assignements and all the Grand Prix's are in a different order!!!

 

[merrybari]

I should be fun next year around this time when we are trying to figure out the assignements and all the Grand Prix's are in a different order!!!

You're right about that. BTW - anyone know the REAL reason for the switch?

 

[nadster]

I noticed last year that the only cases where skaters did competitions back-to-back was when skaters got 2nd events due to a withdrawal. Apparently the ISU has guidelines which discourage assigning skaters to consecutive events. This may be because if the skater incurs and injury at the first event, there will likely be no time to fill the vacancy at the second.

So forget about Johnny Weir being assigned to Russia and NHK. Won't happen. But China and Russia (like last year) is doable.

Thanks chuckm. I was unaware of that policy. So that would in my original prediction put Buttle in NHK instead of China. SC will have no problem with that but I don't know if the Japanese fed would be too thrilled especially as Buttle usually skates very well in Asia and in Japan in particular.

Weir - Russia and China
Joubert - France and US
Buttle - Canada and Japan

Note: I put the for sure ( or almost for sure ) assignment first.

 

[fumie_fumie]

Buttle usually skates very well in Asia and in Japan in particular.

Thanks to all the girls screaming out for him. Buttle is referred to as "flower man Buttle" in Korea, which is a compliment for a good looking guy.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I noticed last year that the only cases where skaters did competitions back-to-back was when skaters got 2nd events due to a withdrawal. Apparently the ISU has guidelines which discourage assigning skaters to consecutive events. This may be because if the skater incurs and injury at the first event, there will likely be no time to fill the vacancy at the second.

So forget about Johnny Weir being assigned to Russia and NHK. Won't happen. But China and Russia (like last year) is doable.

Johnny not in Russia will not be the same Johnny,

Joe

.


The strangest year was 2005-06, when Sokolova made the finals with a first (over Alissa Czisny at Skate America) and a sixth (Eric Bompard: Asada was first and Cohen second.)

Ando and Rochette both made the finals with a first and a 4th, and Arakawa made it with two bronzes.

It all depends on the best skater that night, and in those competitions, the field was much weaker. I think going up against Mao and YuNa will be a coup if any skaters beat them.

btw, you left out the Hungarian champ who made the Finals.

Joe

I believe travelling to Gps impedes a skater's 'best'. I think the following will work as best it can:

YuNa Kim - Skates America and Canada.

Mao Asada - China and Japan

Carolina Kostner - France and Russia

You can work out the easiest route for Buttle, Joubert, Weir .

However, there are good skaters to be placed as well.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

I should be fun next year around this time when we are trying to figure out the assignements and all the Grand Prix's are in a different order!!!

I forgot about that! That change everything.

Johnny Weir always asked USFS not to assign him to Skate America, giving as the reason that he preferred not to skate so early in the season.

But with Cup of Russia in October and Skate America in November this year, he might end up at Skate America after all.