Predictions!

[chuckm]

I just dont understand what consistency has to do with a PCS score for a SINGLE performance?? So, because someone is pretty consistent, should always get high PCS?? That it not how it should work. This is something that we all whine about - no 'reputation' reward, just fair judging.

Whether we like it or not, judges do tend to 'protocol score'. In other words, the best skaters get high PCS scores because they tend to skate well nearly every time out. If one performance is a little less perfect than others, the top skaters still receive high PCS scores.

Less consistent skaters don't medal every time out the way Kim and Asada do, and their PCS scores reflect that fact.

 

[propronia]

Not quite. Joannie's spins are her weakest element and she doesn't always get L4 on them. Her best SC spin got only 3.4 points, and she got -GOE on the other two spins, receiving less than 3 points on each.

I don't think Rochette's spins are good among top ladies, but she's usually very good at getting levels and points from spins. I've just calculated the scores earned from spins at this year's worlds LP.

Asada 13.7
Kostner 12.4
Kim 14.1
Nakano 13.7
Rochette 14.2
Meier 13.2

 

[museksk8r]

At CoR 2007, Joannie received 119.35 for what turned out to be her best intermational FS of the year.

No, her LP at 4CC was deemed better by the judges. She received 119.50 there. I know, not much difference, but facts are facts.

 

[museksk8r]

Total Score, TES, PCS, Event

119.35, 64.71, 54.64, Joannie Rochette CoR 2007
124.15, 63.99, 60.16, Joannie Rochette SC 2008

I think the reality of these marks is that in COR 2007, Joannie was having to rally in the LP after finding herself in 5th place after a flawed SP where she fell on the 3flip while trying to attempt the 3flip+3toe. In contrast, at SC 2008, Joannie unquestionably had the best SP and was leading the field by 7 points going into the LP. I don't think it has hardly anything to do with one event being in Canada and the other being in Russia. Judges award high PCS marks in the LP to skaters who have momentum from a good showing in the SP. Also, it's an indication that Joannie has improved dramatically in her skating skills, choreography, and transitions from last season to this season. Without a doubt, I see tremendous improvements in all areas of PCS from her in both of her Skate Canada performances this season. That's my opinion and I'm sticking to it!

 

[chuckm]

No, her LP at 4CC was deemed better by the judges. She received 119.50 there. I know, not much difference, but facts are facts.

The Regional ISU Championships are notoriously overmarked, so I think the CoR score is more valid.

Besides, in the 4CC FS, Joannie put two hands down on and underrotated the 3S in her 3T-3S sequence, and had a tight landing on the second 2A in her 2A sequence. Her CoR performance was definitely better.

 

[chocola]

I can't wait to see Mao's strong debut this season, and how Joannie can handle the pressure after the success at SC and continue to shine.

 

[turtle]

People used to complain that Joannie was underrated and her PCS scores were too low compared to the technical score she gets for her jumps and other elements. But I now see that many don't think that she deserves the same level of PCS as Asada, Kim, and Kostner. I agree that female skaters who are elegant, flexible, and feminine are beautiful to watch but I don't think that they have to exude femininity to deserve a high PCS score. As long as the skaters execute their programs with high-level technical elements and skate their heart out, I have no problem accepting their high PCS scores. My problem is with skaters who skate tentatively but still receive high PCS marks because of their reputations.

 

[PolymerBob]

Whether we like it or not, judges do tend to 'protocol score'. In other words, the best skaters get high PCS scores because they tend to skate well nearly every time out. If one performance is a little less perfect than others, the top skaters still receive high PCS scores.

Less consistent skaters don't medal every time out the way Kim and Asada do, and their PCS scores reflect that fact.

So to get high PCS scores, a skater must make the podium consistently.

And in order to make the podium consistently, they must have high PCS scores.

But to have high PCS scores, a skater must make the podium consistently.

Moreover, in order to make the podium consistently, they must get high PCS scores.

What's on second? I don't know. Third base! :scratch:

 

[Wrlmy]

People used to complain that Joannie was underrated and her PCS scores were too low compared to the technical score she gets for her jumps and other elements. But I now see that many don't think that she deserves the same level of PCS as Asada, Kim, and Kostner. I agree that female skaters who are elegant, flexible, and feminine are beautiful to watch but I don't think that they have to exude femininity to deserve a high PCS score. As long as the skaters execute their programs with high-level technical elements and skate their heart out, I have no problem accepting their high PCS scores. My problem is with skaters who skate tentatively but still receive high PCS marks because of their reputations.

As one of the people who complained Joannie was undermarked, I agree with you post. Irina received some of the highest pcs in COP history, and while she wasn't a "feminine" skater, she had her own merits. Likewise, Joannie has and showcases her own merits beautifully, and quite consistently. My only criticism would be that she looks slower than others on tv, which is reflected in SS score. But she deserves very high marks on other components.

 

[fumie_fumie]

As one of the people who complained Joannie was undermarked, I agree with you post. Irina received some of the highest pcs in COP history, and while she wasn't a "feminine" skater, she had her own merits. Likewise, Joannie has and showcases her own merits beautifully, and quite consistently. My only criticism would be that she looks slower than others on tv, which is reflected in SS score. But she deserves very high marks on other components.

Joannie may look slower on TV, but quite fast live. I can't really tell the difference in speed between Joannie and Caroline Kostner when I watched them both live at Skate Canada. But, bear in mind Kostner looked a bit under-trained and less prepared than Joannie did at Skate Canada.

 

[Bennett]

Whether we like it or not, judges do tend to 'protocol score'. In other words, the best skaters get high PCS scores because they tend to skate well nearly every time out. If one performance is a little less perfect than others, the top skaters still receive high PCS scores.

Less consistent skaters don't medal every time out the way Kim and Asada do, and their PCS scores reflect that fact.

This season again, PCS has been mysterious to me.

Evan received pretty different PCS for similar performances at the two events. Despite his reputation, his PCS at SC was not very good.

Last season, Miki received a good PCS for her disasterous performance at NHK, but this season she recieved a bad PCS for her SA performance which was clean jump-wise. In both performances, she lacked connection to the music and her transition and flow fell apart. Yet, PCS was reflected only at one of the events. At last season's NHK, she got better PCS than Sarah who had intricate transitions and interpreted the music so well. Is it because being a reigning world champ helped Miki last season whereas the bad showings last season affected her PCS at SA this season?

Regarding Joannie, I have always had an impression that she had not received deserving PCS. I am glad that Joannie was awarded such high PCS at this time.

 

[geo]

Men
Joubert
Chan
Kozuka

Ladies
Asada
Rochette
Zhang

 

[Tonichelle]

Welcome to the board, geo!

 

[shine]

I thought Joannie's SC performance was very good, but it really wasn't that much better than some of her very good performances in the past. But she did it at SC, where last year and other years she hasn't performed particularly well. So this year, she got a big home ice PCS gift.

So I believe your point comes down to that she was overmarked in the PCS at Skate Canada because she was skating on home soil. Well, that's exactly what I don't agree with you. For one, I felt her presentation and performance level WAS that much better at SC than, say, CoR 2007; and two, those PCS were marked accordingly this time. But I won't try to convince you anymore.
And seriously, this is barely a 5 point difference, and she is overmarked?

 

[museksk8r]

This season again, PCS has been mysterious to me.

Evan received pretty different PCS for similar performances at the two events. Despite his reputation, his PCS at SC was not very good.

Notice that being the leader after the SP at Skate America benefited Evan in his PCS scores while in contrast Evan found himself in 4th after a flawed SP at Skate Canada and his PCS scores suffered for it in the LP.

Last season, Miki received a good PCS for her disasterous performance at NHK, but this season she recieved a bad PCS for her SA performance which was clean jump-wise. In both performances, she lacked connection to the music and her transition and flow fell apart. Yet, PCS was reflected only at one of the events. At last season's NHK, she got better PCS than Sarah who had intricate transitions and interpreted the music so well. Is it because being a reigning world champ helped Miki last season whereas the bad showings last season affected her PCS at SA this season?

Yes, I think so. Judges tended to hold up reigning World champs under the 6.0 system too. The ISU can't keep sekrets from any fan who is paying attention.

Regarding Joannie, I have always had an impression that she had not received deserving PCS. I am glad that Joannie was awarded such high PCS at this time.

I agree! :yes: The judges handed out low PCS marks to Joannie because she had a tendency to struggle in the SP, but I still never understood how in the world she could possibly receive lower PCS than Miki last season who was skating very sluggishly with mistake filled programs, but she did in all competitions prior to Worlds. It wasn't until 4CC when Joannie placed above Miki that the judges finally rewarded Joannie over Miki at Worlds with higher PCS.

 

[Bennett]

Notice that being the leader after the SP at Skate America benefited Evan in his PCS scores while in contrast Evan found himself in 4th after a flawed SP at Skate Canada and his PCS scores suffered for it in the LP.



Yes, I think so. Judges tended to hold up reigning World champs under the 6.0 system too. The ISU can't keep sekrets from any fan who is paying attention.




I agree! :yes: The judges handed out low PCS marks to Joannie because she had a tendency to struggle in the SP, but I still never understood how in the world she could possibly receive lower PCS than Miki last season who was skating very sluggishly with mistake filled programs, but she did in all competitions prior to Worlds. It wasn't until 4CC when Joannie placed above Miki that the judges finally rewarded Joannie over Miki at Worlds with higher PCS.

Wow, good observations. That explains a lot.

I also remember Patrick not receiciving high PCS last season. I honestly do not see as much improvement in his skating skills and presentation as it is reflected on the great increase in PCS because he was already so superior in his skating skills and presentation last season. But perhaps judges were conservative last season because he just had a senior debut, but his last season's decent showing has eventually made it comfortable for judges to give better PCS to him.

Seriously, however, if the outcomes of the past performances (whether it is last season or SP) affect PCS so much, I wonder what the PCS criteria are really meant to be for. If they have to rely so much on the past outcome and reputation, it is almost like saying that the judges cannot assess what is skated here and now.

 

[museksk8r]

Seriously, however, if the outcomes of the past performances (whether it is last season or SP) affect PCS so much, I wonder what the PCS criteria are really meant to be for. If they have to rely so much on the past outcome and reputation, it is almost like saying that the judges cannot assess what is skated here and now.

I couldn't agree more. Given that so many judges stay in the same corridor of marks with each other, I don't feel they are evaluating the skating skills, choreography, transitions, performance execution, and interpretation properly. There's no question in my mind that some judges are manipulating the PCS scores as placeholders for their favorites regardless of how they skate on a given day. Program Component Scores should be renamed to Past Outcome Reputation.

Since you used Evan as an example, I have to say that I thought his PCS in the Skate Canada LP should have been higher than his Skate America LP. I thought the whole program gelled much better the 2nd time out. The difference was the change in momentum from being 1st in the SP at SA to being 4th in the SP at SC. That shouldn't make a difference IMO in the LP scoring, but the judges unfortunately do score this way.

It also seems to be a carry-over from the 6.0 system in the way that the judges saved marks and would hold back high scores from the skaters who were early in the rotation in case a medal contender later in the rotation came out and skated magnificent. Remember Michelle Kwan was 3rd in the SP at 2000 Worlds and skated first in the LP and did wonderfully, but was low-balled in the scores to make room for Maria Butyrskaya and Irina Slutskaya in case they skated great. Now, the skaters skate their LP in reverse order of their standings from the SP, so it seems likely that the judges held back high PCS for Evan who skated before Ryan, Patrick, and Yannick in the event that they out-skated Lysacek.

 

[geo]

Welcome to the board, geo!

Thank you for your welcome!

 

[sternfunken]

My predictions for Paris (but of course not my wishes)
Men:
1. Chan
2. Joubert
3. Kozuka
4. Bradley or Preaubert

Ladies:
1. Asada
2. Rochette
3. Zhang or Gedevanishvili

Pairs:
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Duhamel/Buntin
3. Mukhortova/Trankov

Dance:
1. Delobel/Schoenfelder
2. Crone/Poirier
3. The Kerrs
4. Faiella/Scali

 

[Betty07]

Men:

1. Brian JOUBERT
2. Patrick CHAN
3. Takahiko KOZUKA

Ladies:

1. Joannie ROCHETTE
2. Mao ASADA
3. Elene GEDEVANISHVILI