Rachael Flatt & Kimmie Meissner

[ChrisH]

Will Rachael attempt a 3F+3Lo in the SP? In the LP, will she attempt a 3F+3Lo? A 3F+3T? Rachael planned on doing all of these elements at Skate America. Rachael needs to win to have any shot at the GP final. The Cup of Russia is four weeks after Skate America. Rachael got credit for a 3Lz+3T in both the SP and the LP at World Juniors, although I believe that she has a toe-axel (an overly pre-rotated toe loop). She also got +0.70 GOE on a solo 3Lo at World Juniors.

Will Kimmie pull up from her Skate America performance and finish in the top 5? Will she attempt her 3Lz+3T in the SP and/or the LP?

Entries
1 Elena GLEBOVA EST 1
2 Jenni VÄHÄMAA FIN 2
3 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN 3
4 Carolina KOSTNER ITA 4
5 Fumie SUGURI JPN 5
6 Nana TAKEDA JPN 5
7 Ksenia DORONINA RUS 6
8 Alena LEONOVA RUS 6
9 Nina PETUSHKOVA RUS 6
10 Sarah MEIER SUI 7
11 Rachael FLATT USA 8
12 Kimmie MEISSNER USA 8

 

[Nigel]

Will Rachael attempt a 3F+3Lo in the SP? In the LP, will she attempt a 3F+3Lo? A 3F+3T? Rachael planned on doing all of these elements at Skate America. Rachael needs to win to have any shot at the GP final. The Cup of Russia is four weeks after Skate America. Rachael got credit for a 3Lz+3T in both the SP and the LP at World Juniors, although I believe that she has a toe-axel (an overly pre-rotated toe loop). She also got +0.70 GOE on a solo 3Lo at World Juniors.

Will Kimmie pull up from her Skate America performance and finish in the top 5? Will she attempt her 3Lz+3T in the SP and/or the LP?

Entries
1 Elena GLEBOVA EST 1
2 Jenni VÄHÄMAA FIN 2
3 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN 3
4 Carolina KOSTNER ITA 4
5 Fumie SUGURI JPN 5
6 Nana TAKEDA JPN 5
7 Ksenia DORONINA RUS 6
8 Alena LEONOVA RUS 6
9 Nina PETUSHKOVA RUS 6
10 Sarah MEIER SUI 7
11 Rachael FLATT USA 8
12 Kimmie MEISSNER USA 8

I suspect that Flatt will go for her 3/3's at CofR.
re: toe axel....watch her World Jr's performance @
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2-kAoLs2Pc
I don't think that is a toe axel

 

[R.D.]

This is a weak field. It's totally possible.

But I would be surprised if it happened.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think the main question is Will Kostner redeem herself? She is the ranking Silver Medalist in Worlds last year.

I think Flatt may have a shot at gold here. Kimmie to look improved, hopefully.

I'm surprised there are no Asian 'stars' here, although Fumie is lookigng good from Skate Canada.

It's Carolina to lose.

 

[Vincero]

I think that there are 4 podium contenders here: Sarah, Fumie, Carolina and Rachael.

Sarah isn't much of an early season skater, so I don't think she'll win it. But I think her chances of medalling are very good.

Rachael is the most consistent out of the bunch, and I'm guessing she will probably have the highest TES. It'll be interesting to see if judges warm up to her and give her better PCs.

As Joe said, Fumie looked good at Skate Canada. Hats off to her for pulling it together after two lackluster seasons with everyone writing her off. However, I don't want to jump to conclusions and as we've only seen her once this season, it's too early to say she's consistent with her jumps again. But if she performs up to Skate Cananda standards, she will probably medal in this field.

Theoretically, Carolina should medal. Her bad showing at Skate Canada could just be inconsistency (which she is notorious for) and not a full out slump. I think the podium depends a lot on how she'll do there. She can win this, but can place as far down as 5th (from what I see).

And then there's Kimmie. She had improved carriage and flow at Skate America, and it was evident in the SP. The LP fell apart after she fell though. If she can improve (particularly in the LP segment), I can see her fighting for 4th with Carolina in Skate Canada form.

Aside from the aforementioned ladies, I think Julia Sebestyen might have a shot at 4th if she performs cleanly, which she hasn't in some time. There seems to be a sharp cut-off for the rest of the field.

 

[npavel]

Entries
1 Elena GLEBOVA EST 1
2 Jenni VÄHÄMAA FIN 2
3 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN 3
4 Carolina KOSTNER ITA 4
5 Fumie SUGURI JPN 5
6 Nana TAKEDA JPN 5
7 Ksenia DORONINA RUS 6
8 Alena LEONOVA RUS 6
9 Nina PETUSHKOVA RUS 6
10 Sarah MEIER SUI 7
11 Rachael FLATT USA 8
12 Kimmie MEISSNER USA 8

So strange to see five out of 12 skaters who skated the same 2 GP events

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think that there are 4 podium contenders here: Sarah, Fumie, Carolina and Rachael.

Sarah isn't much of an early season skater, so I don't think she'll win it. But I think her chances of medalling are very good.

Rachael is the most consistent out of the bunch, and I'm guessing she will probably have the highest TES. It'll be interesting to see if judges warm up to her and give her better PCs.

As Joe said, Fumie looked good at Skate Canada. Hats off to her for pulling it together after two lackluster seasons with everyone writing her off. However, I don't want to jump to conclusions and as we've only seen her once this season, it's too early to say she's consistent with her jumps again. But if she performs up to Skate Cananda standards, she will probably medal in this field.

Theoretically, Carolina should medal. Her bad showing at Skate Canada could just be inconsistency (which she is notorious for) and not a full out slump. I think the podium depends a lot on how she'll do there. She can win this, but can place as far down as 5th (from what I see).

And then there's Kimmie. She had improved carriage and flow at Skate America, and it was evident in the SP. The LP fell apart after she fell though. If she can improve (particularly in the LP segment), I can see her fighting for 4th with Carolina in Skate Canada form.

Aside from the aforementioned ladies, I think Julia Sebestyen might have a shot at 4th if she performs cleanly, which she hasn't in some time. There seems to be a sharp cut-off for the rest of the field.

Good post! I like a thinking man's view of figure skating whether I agree with him or not. In this case, I agree.

 

[chuckm]

Sarah Meier has no chance of medaling since she withdrew.

The podium battle will be among Czisny, Flatt, Suguri and Kostner.

 

[flying camel]

Don't forget Kimmie. She may surprise!

 

[R.D.]

At this point I think she CAN be forgotten. Even without falling her scores have gone down quite a bit.

 

[ChrisH]

I suspect that Flatt will go for her 3/3's at CofR.

Then she'll have to perform the 3F+3Lo much better than she did at Skate America. The technical panel had little choice but to downgrade the +3Lo at Skate America. If you look at the blade when the toe pick just leaves the ice and when it just touches down again, it only rotated twice (720 degrees) in the air. Her body rotated even less during that time frame. Don't get me wrong, that is a stricter way of looking at it than we usually do and she might get credit if she rotates the landing as little as 45 degrees more. She said that she missed the timing of the takeoff or something to that affect, so maybe she can do the combo much better.

Given the way Kostner performed at Skate Canada and Meier's withdrawal, Flatt may no longer need that triple-triple to win. Look at the trouble that two World Champion class jumpers, Ando (1 out of 4) and Asada (0 out of 2), have had. Asada and Wagner perhaps self-downgraded their +3Lo attempt. The chances are low.

re: toe axel....watch her World Jr's performance @
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k2-kAoLs2Pc
I don't think that is a toe axel

I think that was her best +3T of the year, but it was still overly pre-rotated IMO. She had enough rotation on the landing though, so the technical panel unlikely reviewed it. The landing was much better rotated than the 3F+3Lo at Skate America. Perhaps she should've focused on getting her 3Lz+3T (or 3F+3T) consistent in the off-season.

 

[Tinymavy15]

After what has been going on the past few events I cannot see either of the american ladies winning this event...and forget about making the final.

 

[chuckm]

After what has been going on the past few events I cannot see either of the american ladies winning this event...and forget about making the final.

There are THREE US ladies in this event: Flatt, Meissner and Czisny. Czisny already has a bronze medal and has a higher FS score than Suguri. Czisny could possibly make the final with a silver medal, or Flatt with a gold. Flatt was thoroughly disgusted with herself after her SA FS, and I expect to see a much better performance from her in Moscow. She is a very determined young lady, so I wouldn't dismiss her chances here.

It isn't as if Czisny and Flatt are meeting any monsters in Moscow. Suguri is the top rival, and she hasn't been consistent in most of her GP seasons.

Of the US ladies, Meissner is the only one who has no chance at the Final.

 

[gold12345]

The judges will do whatever they can to give Kostner this one. She may earn it anyway.. None of the others are particularly consistent except perhaps Flatt, and her skating has its own issues.