Predictions

[museksk8r]

Picking names out of a hat would probably be more accurate than any of our guesses.

You know, I actually did this upon your suggestion and the results of my draw for the men are:

1. Patrick Chan
2. Tomas Verner
3. Jeremy Abbott
4. Brian Joubert
5. Takahiko Kozuka
6. Johnny Weir

I wrote the names and cut up the paper, folding all of them, shaking them in one of my caps, and turned my head away as I pulled each name. This is fun! Now onto the other disciplines.................

My draw for the ladies:

1. Joannie Rochette
2. Yukari Nakano
3. Mao Asada
4. Miki Ando
5. Carolina Kostner
6. Yu-Na Kim

For pairs:

1. Kawaguchi/Smirnov
2. Mukhortova/Trankov
3. Pang/Tong
4. Volosozhar/Morozov
5. Savchenko/Szolkowy
6. Zhang/Zhang

For dance:

1. Faiella/Scali
2. Khokhlova/Novitski
3. Davis/White
4. Domnina/Shabalin
5. Belbin/Agosto
6. Delobel/Schoenfelder

Wow, I would never predict some of these results.

 

[Buttercup]

All the guys are incredibly unpredictable. Kozuka might not hold up to the pressure, Chan might not get overscored again and that means he's screwed, Abbott is really inconsistent, Brian might be having blade/head/preparation problems, I've stopped trying to predict Johnny a long time ago-there's always something crazy going on with him, and Verner-he's the most unpredictable of them all! So yeah. We'll see what happens.

siberia82 is right about picking names out of a hat, and this perfectly summarizes why that's the case.

My unknown factors for the men:
* Has Brian Joubert improved his LP? As it was it had potential but was not a winning program, unless he has a nice lead out of the SP.
* Will Jeremy Abbott have the confidence/focus to skate two good programs?
* Is Kozuka going to get more URs on his quad attempts?
Will Tomas run out of steam and/or concentration in his LP? If he does, will it hurt his PCS at all?
* Will Patrick Chan continue to get scored like someone skating clean programs with full jump content, even if he's not?
* Will pomegranate juice restore Johnny's health and make him do his jumps as planned?

And, of course, there are always the unknown unknowns...

 

[silverlining]

As a Yuna fan (and a supporter all other skaters who skate their hearts out on the ice) I just have one prediction to make:

Yuna WILL go over the 200 mark at this year's GPF.

Some things are just meant to be.

 

[Bennett]

I wrote the names and cut up the paper, folding all of them, shaking them in one of my caps, and turned my head away as I pulled each name. This is fun!

Indeed, this is so much fun!! I love it! Thanks for sharing! Your men's draw seems to make pretty much sense! I mean I saw so many different ordering in this permutation set for Men and every one of them seemed to make sense But my money is bet on your draw. Even though it is a bit different from my dream podium, perhaps it is more objective because it is not affected by desire and wishful thinking. We should have a party if your prediction comes true:agree:

 

[JewelInTheSun]

Pairs:
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Pang/Tong
3. Zhang/Zhang
4. Mukhortova/Trankov
5. Volosozhar/Morozov
6. Kawagucchi/Smirnov

Ice Dancing:
1. Domnina/Shabalin
2. Khokhlova/Novitski
3. Delobel/Schoenfelder

Men:
1. Brian Joubert
2. Johnny Weir
3. Tomas Verner

Ladies:
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Carolina Kostner
3. Mao Asada

 

[lmarie086]

Ice Dance.

1. Khokhlova/Novitski
2. Delobel/Schoenfelder

And then it gets tricky...for one thing part of me doesn't think DomShabs will end up being there because of his knees. IMO, if they want to see out the rest of season and be at Worlds, this would be the competition to miss. But I will count them in my prediction and it is as follows.

3. Domnina/Shabalin
4./5. Belbin/Agosto and Davis/White (with no CD here, which is B/A's advantage over D/W IMO, it could get very close)
6. Faiella/Scali.

EDIT: Paper out of a hat predictions!

Dance:
1. Khokhlova/Novitski
2. DomShabs
3. Faiella/Scali
4. Delobel/Schoenfelder
5. Belbin/Agosto
6. Davis/White

Well the magic paper gods abandoned me

 

[museksk8r]

We should have a party if your prediction comes true:agree:

You know, I honestly wish all these skaters could win gold medals. There's not a single one I completely dislike. Obviously, I like some more than others, but there's not a single one I find completely unwatchable out of all the disciplines, plus they all work so hard. I think they are all champions!

I still think Alban Preaubert deserves to be at the GPF too! It's too bad he is not here.

 

[Bennett]

I think they are all champions!

ITA with your sentiment!

When they have a close competition, the final placement tends to fall within the range of random errors without any statistically meaningful differences. I hope that they will have such a competition here.

 

[Mathman]

When they have a close competition, the final placement tends to fall within the range of random errors without any statistically meaningful differences. I hope that they will have such a competition here.

I don't, because that shows that the judging system is totally worthless.

 

[Bennett]

I don't, because that shows that the judging system is totally worthless.

Not totally It's not totally the fault of the scoring system per se, but rather, the way they feel obligated to decide the exact placements in sports, however statistically meaningless the differences could be. Yet perhaps they could make the measures more sensitive, by increasing the score ranges assigned to spins, steps and so forth.

 

[dancingqueen]

Picking names out of a hat would probably be more accurate than any of our guesses.

I wrote the names and cut up the paper, folding all of them, shaking them in one of my caps, and turned my head away as I pulled each name. This is fun!

Great idea ! So I had my family play the game to pick out the little pieces of paper after I made the name cards for each skater. And they came out like this, It’s fun and very objective and completely out of control !

Men

1. Johnny Weir
2. Jeremy Abbot
3. Takahiko Kozuka
4. Patrick Chan
5. Brian Joubert
6. Tomas Verner


Ladies

1. Mao Asada
2. Yu-Na Kim
3. Miki Ando
4. Carolina Kostner
5. Joannie Rochette
6. Yukari Nakano

 

[Mathman]

Not totally It's not totally the fault of the scoring system per se, but rather, the way they feel obligated to decide the exact placements in sports, however statistically meaningless the differences could be.

Ordinals, being non-parametric, have infinite precision and are not subject to statistical sampling error.

Great idea ! So I had my family play the game to pick out the little pieces of paper after I made the name cards for each skater.

:chorus::chorus::chorus:

Verner
Kozuka
Abbott
Chan
Joubert
Weir

Rochette
Ando
Kim
Nakano
Asada
Kostner

 

[Tonichelle]

the magic paper gods really have it out for Johnny.

 

[siberia82]

the magic paper gods really have it out for Johnny.

Wow, are the Magic Paper Gods supplanting the Skate Gods now?

I was half-joking when I mentioned that we should pick names out of a hat, but I'm glad to see that people are having a lot of fun embracing my suggestion! :agree:

 

[Bennett]

the magic paper gods really have it out for Johnny.

No, dancingqueen's draw had him on the top So all or nothing, just as Verner's case

 

[Tonichelle]

well, it's kinda like the Trident commercials = 4 out of 5 recommend Trident...

that one magic paper god is holding out on the rest

 

[magicalwords]

For me, the magic paper god has chosen...

Pairs
1. Zhang / Zhang
2. Pang / Tong
3. Mukhortova / Trankov
4. Volosozhar / Morozov
5. Savchenko / Szolkowy
6. Kawaguchi / Smirnov

Well, I certain don't want S/S to be in 5th place. The magic paper god betrayed me in pairs :frown2:

Ice Dance
1. Delobel / Schoenfelder
2. Khokhlova / Novitski
3. Davis / White
4. Domnina / Shabalin
5. Belbin / Agosto
6. Faiella / Scali

Well, certainly a possibility.

Men
1. Patrick Chan
2. Brian Joubert
3. Tomas Verner
4. Johnny Weir
5. Takahiko Kozuka
6. Jeremy Abbott

I'm okay with Chan winning.

Ladies
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Joannie Rochette
3. Mao Asada
4. Yukari Nakano
5. Miki Ando
6. Carolina Kostner

Wow, the magic paper god can come up with some realistic prediction.

Haha, am I supposed to be happy that the magic god didn't totally abandon Johnny yet?

 

[psycho]

Okay, I tried the Magic Paper Gods and this is what I got:

1. Chan
2. Weir
3. Kozuka
4. Joubert
5. Verner
6. Abbott

Can't say I'm happy with that arrangement as is, but if we switch Chan with Joubert I'd be thrilled.

 

[LaLola]

These are my very first predictions:

Dance

1.Belbin/Agosto
2.Delobel/Schoenfelder
3.Khokhlova / Novitski

Ladies
1.Kim
2.Asada
3.Rochette

Men
1.Joubert
2.Kozuka
3.Abbott

Pairs
1.Savchenko / Szolkowy
2.Zhang / Zhang
3.Volosozhar / Morozov

 

[Tonichelle]

Wow, are the Magic Paper Gods supplanting the Skate Gods now?

I don't believe the Skate Gods would let the rest of us know what their plans for the competition are