Sasha. Comeback. Believe it.

[PolymerBob]

When has USFSA not sent a Nationals gold medalist to the Olympics? :sheesh:

I bet it has almost never happened even for silver. And withdrawals don't count.

OK, let's go through this one more time. New rules are in effect. There are totally new and different rules that have never been in effect before.

Don't feel bad. Many, many posters here have not yet been able to grasp the new guidelines. But I'm here to help.

 

[seniorita]

Unless you get to talk to her under a ploygraph, y6ou will never believe what she says anyway

Ant

Lol is this like the truth drug? I want one

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

We all know that the USFS has the blessing of the ISU to name its Olympic Team. What methods they use is to be determined. No?

Sasha Cohen has the blessings of the Olympic Committee to be a contestant for the forthcoming Olys. The Olympics have their own Rules of Entries.

If the USFS decides that Sasha is not fit to skate in the Oympics, it would seem to me that the USFS will have to explain to the OIC via the ISU the reasons why they are not sending Sasha to the Olys. No?

I am not familiar with FS politics but I could believe that the 3 organizations will agree not to overrule the Olympics permission to have Sasha automatically skate. How much fight the USFS will put up against the ISU and the OIC is moot.

I think most posters have put the case solely on Sasha's ability to be better than the current crop of US Ladies, but I feel the 3 big organizations will rule if Sasha is not at her best, and she will skate in the Games.

 

[Mathman]

OK, let's go through this one more time. New rules are in effect. There are totally new and different rules that have never been in effect before.

You fell for it. Compare the "new" rules with the old. They closed up a tiny formal loophole. There are no new rules.

Phil Hersh put it this way in a recent article:

"A change in U.S. Figure Skating selection rules no longer gives the reigning national champion an automatic place on the Olympic team. But a member of the international committee told me there is no way the 2010 champions would be dumped."

Sasha Cohen has the blessings of the Olympic Committee to be a contestant for the forthcoming Olys. The Olympics have their own Rules of Entries.

If the USFS decides that Sasha is not fit to skate in the Oympics, it would seem to me that the USFS will have to explain to the OIC via the ISU the reasons why they are not sending Sasha to the Olys. No?

No. The USFSA selects the skaters who go to the Olympics. The USOC rubber stamps their selection. Sasha does not have any special status compared to the other hopefuls.

Here are the official rules.

http://www.usfigureskating.org/cont... WOG FSK Athlete Selection Procedures web.pdf

 

[janetfan]

No. The USFSA selects the skaters who go to the Olympics. The USOC rubber stamps their selection. Sasha does not have any special staus compared to the other hopefuls.

I believe mathman is correct about the rules. But I don't agree that Sasha does not have any special "status."
She has one thing the other US ladies are lacking - major "it" factor.
This may not be status as written into the rules for US Skating selection committee - but it exists - and NBC is very aware of it.

I am glad Sasha is attempting a comeback. I have no idea how successful it will be. Someone mentioned that as a silver medalist why comeback and hope to get a bronze? I love Sasha, but she has had two Olympic experiences already.
Unless she truly earns her spot with her skating at Natls I hope we send Caroline, and either Rachael or Mirai. They are future medal winners in the years ahead and I think they give us the best shot in 2010.

 

[eleonora.d]

So we are assuming that she is coming back stronger than in 2006 (she has to, without a clean edge 3 lutz) and her goal is an Olympic Bronze Medal.

See, this is what I don't get. When you have silver already, why would you aim for bronze- one step lower? From a competitive POV, that doesn't make any sense.

I don't get it as well. I know it's paradoxal, but I'd understand a comeback if she was 4th or out of the podium of the last Olympics. But she was silver, and she was even quite lucky to get it instead of Slutskaya (I'm not bashing her, I love her as an artist!). If she hadn't that silver, them a comeback could have more sense to my eyes.

But above silver there is only gold and I'm sure she is aware of what it takes to beat Kim (read: some 3axels).

Maybe it's because I don't believe in comebacks in general. I think Plushenko's has more sense because of two reasons: first, when he was in shape he was (almost) unbeatable for a long time, so assuming that he can possibly come back in shape he'd be actually able to win some event. Secondly, Russia's men field is so depressing that event placing in the top 10 would save Russia from a real shame.

I believe the American girls right now are adorable and they can do a good competition in Vancouver. With some luck Rachel could even be a medal contender. So please let this girls gain some experience. They will grow up very well. It just take time and patience sometimes Instead, u.s. dance couples and men look as good as ever

 

[janetfan]

I don't get it as well. I know it's paradoxal, but I'd understand a comeback if she was 4th or out of the podium of the last Olympics. But she was silver, and she was even quite lucky to get it instead of Slutskaya (I'm not bashing her, I love her as an artist!). If she hadn't that silver, them a comeback could have more sense to my eyes.

But above silver there is only gold and I'm sure she is aware of what it takes to beat Kim (read: some 3axels).

Maybe it's because I don't believe in comebacks in general. I think Plushenko's has more sense because of two reasons: first, when he was in shape he was (almost) unbeatable for a long time, so assuming that he can possibly come back in shape he'd be actually able to win some event. Secondly, Russia's men field is so depressing that event placing in the top 10 would save Russia from a real shame.

I believe the American girls right now are adorable and they can do a good competition in Vancouver. With some luck Rachel could even be a medal contender. So please let this girls gain some experience. They will grow up very well. It just take time and patience sometimes Instead, u.s. dance couples and men look as good as ever

Buongiorno Eleonora,
I agree with you - and perhaps Sasha has Gold in her thoughts and dreams.
If Plushy can get back to even his 2006 level I think that still blows away most of the men. Patrick may dazzle but will he have the jumps? A healthy Takahashi may prove to be the most serious challenge to Plushy.
I share your feelings about the young crop of USA girls. Caroline actually had the best scores last season in International competitions beating Rachael at 4CC and WTT. The saddest thing for me was that Caroline did not get to Worlds because she probably would have done much better than Alissa and earned USA a third slot for Olympics.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

No. The USFSA selects the skaters who go to the Olympics. The USOC rubber stamps their selection. Sasha does not have any special status compared to the other hopefuls.

Here are the official rules.

http://www.usfigureskating.org/cont... WOG FSK Athlete Selection Procedures web.pdf

That's an ISU link, not an OIC link. My point comes about as a hypothetical scenario.

If the ISU does not place Cohen on the Oly Team, will the ISU and OIC object? Does the OIC heed to the Rules of the ISU or does it have its own?

The ISU is all too frightened to upset the Oly bigshots, (hence the CoP). Cohen is entitled to be there re the Rules of the OIC. Will Speedy not follow the OIC wishes? Will the USFS not follow the ISU wishes? And where does NBC play in this Game of Entitlements?

Of course, the hypothetical scenario is if and only if, Cohen has a major meltdown.

If not a major meltdown was her skating good enough to make her a team member? I think the USFS will support Cohen's entry into the Olys any which way.

 

[gkelly]

If the ISU does not place Cohen on the Oly Team, will the ISU and OIC object? Does the OIC heed to the Rules of the ISU or does it have its own?

No.

First of all, the ISU cannot place Cohen on the US Olympic team. The ISU can set the rules for how countries qualify spots for the Olympics and what general criteria (e.g., age) a competitor must satisfy.

The IOC has its own rules about eligibility that may be more stringent than the sport's governing body. E.g., for the Olympics competitors must be citizens of the country they represent.

Otherwise, the international bodies *do not* get to name each country's national team, and the Olympic committees do not get to determine sport-specific technical criteria that each sport sets for participation.

It's entirely up to US Figure Skating federation to name the US figure skating team for the Olympics, subject to approval by the US Olympic Committee.

None of these other bodies have preapproved Cohen to be one of the two US ladies figure skating competitors in Vancouver. At most they have acknowledged that she is eligible to compete IF US Figure Skating chooses to name her to the team on the basis of their selection criteria, the most important of which is 2010 Nationals results. But by saying that she is eligible to compete in those circumstances, that doesn't single her out from any other US lady she'll have to compete against next year.

US Figure Skating does have a rule, as noted in Mathman's link, that skaters who medaled at the most recent (2006) Olympics are automatically eligible to compete at US Nationals. The ISU and the Olympic committees have nothing to do with that rule, and that rule has nothing to do with who will be chosen for the 2010 Olympic team -- only with who can get a bye straight to Nationals.

 

[janetfan]

No.

First of all, the ISU cannot place Cohen on the US Olympic team. The ISU can set the rules for how countries qualify spots for the Olympics and what general criteria (e.g., age) a competitor must satisfy.

The IOC has its own rules about eligibility that may be more stringent than the sport's governing body. E.g., for the Olympics competitors must be citizens of the country they represent.

Otherwise, the international bodies *do not* get to name each country's national team, and the Olympic committees do not get to determine sport-specific technical criteria that each sport sets for participation.

It's entirely up to US Figure Skating federation to name the US figure skating team for the Olympics, subject to approval by the US Olympic Committee.

None of these other bodies have preapproved Cohen to be one of the two US ladies figure skating competitors in Vancouver. At most they have acknowledged that she is eligible to compete IF US Figure Skating chooses to name her to the team on the basis of their selection criteria, the most important of which is 2010 Nationals results. But by saying that she is eligible to compete in those circumstances, that doesn't single her out from any other US lady she'll have to compete against next year.

US Figure Skating does have a rule, as noted in Mathman's link, that skaters who medaled at the most recent (2006) Olympics are automatically eligible to compete at US Nationals. The ISU and the Olympic committees have nothing to do with that rule, and that rule has nothing to do with who will be chosen for the 2010 Olympic team -- only with who can get a bye straight to Nationals.

Thanks for such a clear and precise post. I don't see how anyone can fail to understand how this process is supposed to work.

 

[Mathman]

That's an ISU link, not an OIC link.

I posted the IOC rules earlier on this thread. Here they are again, in case you missed it.

http://multimedia.olympic.org/pdf/en_report_122.pdf

Cohen is entitled to be there re the Rules of the IOC.

Yes, Cohen is entitled to be there according to the rules of the IOC.

Rachael Flatt is entitled to be there according to the rules of the IOC.

Caroline Zhang is entitled to be there according to the rules of the IOC.

I am entitled to be there according to the rules of the IOC (I am a U.S. citizen. I am not on drugs. )

The IOC oversees 33 sports in 204 countries. The summer and winter games have over 500 individual events for more than 12,000 athletes. The IOC is not in the business of telling the Russian Skating Federation whether they should send Glebova or Leonova to Vancouver .

This Sasha hype has the tail wagging the dog.

 

[Sylvia]

I he IOC oversees 33 sports in 204 countries. The summer and winter games have over 500 individual events for more than 12,000 athletes. The IOC is not in the business of telling the Russian Skating Federation whether they should send Glebova or Leonova to Vancouver.

Actually, Elena Glebova skates for Estonia.

Thanks for your links/concise explanation of the USFS vs. USOC vs. ISU vs. IOC rules, gkelly and Mathman!

 

[Mathman]

I believe the American girls right now are adorable and they can do a good competition in Vancouver. With some luck Rachel could even be a medal contender. So please let this girls gain some experience. They will grow up very well. It just take time and patience sometimes

I agree.

I do not subscribe to the "woe is us" view of U.S. ladies.

We have the fifth best in the world, Rachael.

Don't like her? OK, we've got somebody better than the fifth best in the world, Caroline.

Don't like either one? OK, we've got somebody who might turn out to be better than the one who is fifth best in the world AND better than the one who is better than the one who is fifth best in the world -- Mirai.

Come Vancouver, we can hype them as valiant Davids sallying bravely forth against the Goliaths of international women's skating.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

gkelly I have never mentioned that the OIC or the ISU would appoint skaters to the Olys.

Regardless of the rules of the USFS, how will the USFS determine the Team? If the winner goes automaticaly (nothing changed?), what will be their criteria for the other skater?

I do not believe there is a criteria for appointing any skaters to the Olys after the automatic winner of the US Nats.

So could the USFS be influenced in its second choice by outside forces?

 

[Mathman]

Actually, Elena Glebova skates for Estonia.

Oh. Well, in that case I guess the IOC does care.

 

[Particle Man]

OK, let's go through this one more time. New rules are in effect. There are totally new and different rules that have never been in effect before.

Don't feel bad. Many, many posters here have not yet been able to grasp the new guidelines. But I'm here to help.

Here's a tip -- arrogance is only appropriate when you're right. Don't feel bad, many posters here and elsewhere have not been able to grasp that.

While you may be right in saying "Nationals gold medalist used to be rule-bound to go to the Olympics" that doesn't mean there was ever an occasion that they wouldn't have been sent anyway. AFAIK, nationals silver medalist has never been rule-bound for the Olympics. How many nationals silver medalists have been left behind in favor of someone else? Does anyone have the numbers on it? As I said, I bet it is very, very few. Why, then, do you believe that the "new rule" will have some giant effect on things? Paranoia, or possibly hatred of one skater or of the USFSA in general?

The "new rule" is there just to give them the option, in very unusual circumstances. 99% of the time I still don't see them leaving the Nationals gold medalist at home. Think of the effect it would have on future Nationals attendance, all the people that traveled to see the big show before the Olympics, or watched Nationals on TV (one of the few remaining skating events that is still televised in the US) get to see someone crowned ladies National champ and then she sits at home? USFSA would be shooting themselves in the foot.

If US skating falls so far that we end up with only ONE Olympic spot, and THEN if we have a Nationals where the top 2 ladies are in a virtual statistical tie, and THEN if the silver medalist is much more popular than the gold medalist, then and only then could I see them leaving the gold medalist at home. But with 2 spots, I can't even imagine the circumstance where a gold medalist would be left at home in favor of TWO other people. Even if you are so paranoid to believe that Sasha has enough star power to be sent over the gold medalist, what second lady has that same power? Michelle Kwan I suppose, except she isn't coming back? :think:

Star power may factor in, but USFSA wants to send what it deems to be its best skaters. Sasha's star power will earn her some favor -- I've outlined it already in post #357 of this thread. In 8 months we'll get to see one of those scenarios happen. It MAY be a scenario I outlined where Sasha goes over a silver medalist, depending on who they are, but it won't be one where a gold medalist sits at home.

 

[Mathman]

I do not believe there is a criteria for appointing any skaters to the Olys after the [all but] automatic winner of the US Nats.

Here are the procedure and the criteria:

The USFS International Committee Management Subcommittee will meet formally on Monday, January 18 (for pairs and men) and on Sunday, January 24 (for dance and ladies) to determine its respective nominees to the 2010 U.S. Olympic Team and replacement athletes in ranked order.

The ICMS selection and recommendation for each discipline will then be forwarded to the USFS International Committee for Final approval. USFS International Committee will meet immediately following receipt of the ICMS recommendations. Official nominees will be announced on Monday January 25 for all disciplines by the International Committee....

To field the most competitive team, U.S. Figure Skating's ICMS will take into consideration results from the events outlined below to determine athletes who will have the most performance impact at the 2010 Winter Olympic Games. The ICMS, and the International Committee's approval process of the ICMS' recommendations, will take into consideration placement and competitive field at the following events in priority order

a. 2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships.
b. 2009/10 ISU Senior Grand Prix Finals.
c. 2009 World Figure Skating Championships
d. 2009 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships
e. 2009 World Junior Figure Skating Championships
f. 2009/10 ISU Junior Grand Prix

 

[gkelly]

How many nationals silver medalists have been left behind in favor of someone else?

From the Olympics? When the silver medalist was eligible to compete (i.e., not counting Belbin/Agosto in 2002 because she wasn't eligible by citizenship)?

Nancy Kerrigan over Michelle Kwan in 1994.
Meno/Sand over Lyons/Wells in 1998.

I don't know offhand if there have been other examples.

If US skating falls so far that we end up with only ONE Olympic spot, and THEN if we have a Nationals where the top 2 ladies are in a virtual statistical tie, and THEN if the silver medalist is much more popular than the gold medalist, then and only then could I see them leaving the gold medalist at home.

Even so, I don't think US Figure Skating would make its decision based on star power, but rather on their assessment of who is more likely to have a better result at the Olympics. Since they don't have an infallible crystal ball, if the statistics are virtually tied both for who wins Nationals (as with the men in 2008) and for recent international results, then it's unlikely that one of the two would be significantly more popular, given similar results. So they'd probably just send the national champion, even if it was pretty much a coin toss as to who was awarded the title.

I'm sure NBC would love for star power to be one of the deciding criteria. But last I checked they don't have any say in who makes the team.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Before I got slandered in saying the ISU appoints the USFS Team, which I never did, you are correct in assuming a gold National medalist should (must) go the Oly,. However, I was concerned about the second selection that does not rely on the results of the Nats.

I believe, and I would want to be instructed otherwise, as to whethe their is a criteria for selecting other team members than just the Nat's gold medalist?

My past knowledge of this matter says that there is no criteria for selecting other members of the Oly Team. There is a backroom confoerence and then an announcement.

I am just wondering if the ISU, OlC or NBC play a role in this backroom discussion. We will not be privileged to know how they reached the 2nd selection, Of course, we understand that there will be several factors taken into consideration which may or may not affect the silver medalist. We have to assume it's all on the up and up., but we wont know these factors.

No problem. We will move on to the Olys with a Team.

 

[Mathman]

I believe, and I would want to be instructed otherwise, as to whethe their is a criteria for selecting other team members than just the Nat's gold medalist?

Yes. Here are the criteria:

The ICMS, and the International Committee's approval process of the ICMS' recommendations, will take into consideration placement and competitive field at the following events in priority order:

a. 2010 U.S. Figure Skating Championships.
b. 2009/10 ISU Senior Grand Prix Finals.
c. 2009 World Figure Skating Championships
d. 2009 Four Continents Figure Skating Championships
e. 2009 World Junior Figure Skating Championships
f. 2009/10 ISU Junior Grand Prix