Nebelhorn Trophy

[Buttercup]

Entries have been announced!

For siberia: I like Fedor's chances.

This was funny:

Meryl Davis and Charlie White caused quite a stir when they placed fourth at the World Championships in March. The duo should battle it out with Nathalie Pechalat who was nipping at their heels in Los Angeles.

Nathalie, skating by herself?

 

[antmanb]

Jenna Mckorkell is not down as the GB lady don't suppose anyone knows why?

Ant

 

[MissIzzy]

Probably because she doesn't have to go. She is already qualified, after all. Olympic qualifying analysis time, people. Ladies first, here are all the entries from countries not yet qualified:

1 Ariana TARRADO RIBES AND 1
2 Ani VARDANYAN ARM 2
3 Cheltzie LEE AUS 3
Phoebe DI TOMMASO AUS 3 S
Kayla DOIG AUS 3 S
Fei Fei HARDY AUS 3 S
Jessica KURZAWSKI AUS 3 S
Tina WANG AUS 3 S
4 Miriam ZIEGLER AUT 4
Kerstin FRANK AUT 4 S
Andrea KREUZER AUT 4 S
5 Joelle FORTE (TBC) AZE 5
Emma HAGIEVA AZE 5 S
6 Isabelle PIEMAN BEL 6
7 Alessia BALDO BRA 7
9 Yan LIU CHN 9
Binshu XU CHN 9 S
Qiuying ZHU CHN 9 S
10 Chaochih LIU TPE 10
Melinda WANG TPE 10 S
11 Mirna LIBRIC CRO 11
Maria DIKANOVIC CRO 11 S
12 Nella SIMAOVA CZE 12
Ivana BUZKOVA CZE 12 S
13 Karina JOHNSON DEN 13
17 Candice DIDIER FRA 16
Gwendoline DIDIER FRA 16 S
22 Julia SEBESTYEN HUN 19
Bianka PADAR HUN 19 S
Viktoria PAVUK HUN 19 S
23 Clara PETERS IRL 20
24 Tamar KATZ ISR 21
27 Beatrice ROZINSKAITE LTU 23
28 Fleur MAXWELL LUX 24
29 Ana Cecilia CANTU MEX 25
Loretta HAMUI MEX 25 S
30 Manouk GIJSMAN NED 26
Joyce DEN HOLLANDER NED 26 S
Eva LIM NED 26 S
31 Alexandra ROUT NZL 27
32 Mericien VENZON PHI 28
33 Megan WILLIAMS STEWART PUR 29
Victoria MUNIZ PUR 29 S
35 Roxana LUCA ROU 31
Sabina PAQUIER ROU 31 S
37 Marina SEEH SRB 33
Ksenia JASTSENJSKI SRB 33 S
38 Teodora POSTIC SLO 34
39 Lejeanne MARAIS RSA 35
40 Sonia LAFUENTE ESP 36
41 Viktoria HELGESSON SWE 37
Joshi HELGESSON SWE 37 S
43 Irina MOVCHAN UKR 39
Anastasia LISTOPAD UKR 39 S
Eleonora VINNICHENKO UKR 39 S
46 Anastasia GIMAZETDINOVA UZB 41

Thirty-one countries vying for an assumed seven spots(and that's if Georgia doesn't suddenly pull a second lady out of somewhere)! Assume Julia Sebestyen takes one for Hungary, shortlisting those I think have a chance at the other six:

Cheltzie Lee-Australia-just old enough to qualify
Joelle Forte-Azerbaijan-if her paperwork gets through, but how will she hold up internationally?
Yan Liu-China-hey, she qualified last time
Choachih Liu-Chinese Taipei-made the free skate at Four Continents, close to making it at Worlds, though further judgement definitely must be reserved
Nella Simoava-Czech Republic-maybe
Candice Didier-France, just missed at Worlds, and certainly not for lack of trying
Tamar Katz-Israel-just missed the free skate at Worlds, which should have disqualified her by her federation's standards, but hey, she's here
Fleur Maxwell-Luxemburg-though four years away says it certainly can't be relied on!
Ana Cecilia Cantu-Mexico-Glad to see the Mexican federation sent her after all; earlier in the summer she complained on Twitter they were planning to send someone else
Alexandra Rout-New Zealand-same position as her fellow Antipode
Megan Williams Stewart-Puerto Rico-same position as her fellow country-hopping American
Irina Movchan-Ukraine-if she can skate a better short than at Worlds
Anastasia Gimazetdinova-last alternate to make it to Torino

Most of my money would be on Candic Didier coming through in this field. For the other five I'm really not sure, but I might go with Cantu, Katz, Lee, Rout, and for the last spot, I'm kind of crossing my fingers for Joelle. The other seven will probably pile in just behind them, possibly with some of the other seventeen squeaking ahead of them, and wait to see what requirements the national organizations put down, how well those requirements are enforced, and if the initially qualified skaters meet them.

 

[Sylvia]

For what it's worth, the roster as published at the link above may still only be a preliminary one (for the non-Olympic qualifiers). The official roster will be published at this link: http://www.deu-event.de/results/Nebelhorn_2009/index.html

 

[MissIzzy]

Men's Qualifying

Entries from countries not yet qualified:

1 Pierre BALIAN (TBC) ARM 1
Gegham VARDANYAN ARM 1 S
2 Sean CARLOW AUS 2
Andrew DODDS AUS 2 S
Robert MCNAMARA AUS 2 S
Matthew PRECIOUS AUS 2 S
Dean TIMMINS AUS 2 S
Mark WEBSTER AUS 2 S
3 Viktor PFEIFER AUT 3
Mario-Rafael IONIAN AUT 3 S
Severin KIEFER AUT 3 S
4 Fedor ANDREEV (TBC) AZE 4
5 Alexandr KAZAKOV BLR 5
6 Damjan OSTOJIC BIH 6
7 Kevin ALVES BRA 7
10 Jialiang WU CHN 9
Nan SONG CHN 9 S
Chao YANG CHN 9 S
11 Stephen Li-Chung KUO TPE 10
Charles Shou-San PAO TPE 10 S
12 Boris MARTINEC CRO 11
Josip GLUHAK CRO 11 S
14 Song Chol RI PRK 13
15 Viktor ROMANENKOV EST 14
16 Ari-Pekka NURMENKARI FIN 15
Mikko MINKKINEN FIN 15 S
Valtter VIRTANEN FIN 15 S
19 Beka SHANKULASHVILI GEO 17
20 Stefan LINDEMANN GER 18
Clemens BRUMMER GER 18 S
Peter LIEBERS GER 18 S
Philipp TISCHENDORF GER 18 S
21 Matthew PARR GBR 19
Elliot HILTON GBR 19 S
David RICHARDSON GBR 19 S
22 Tigran VARDANJAN HUN 20
23 Maxim SHIPOV ISR 21
26 Saulius AMBRULEVICIUS LTU 23
27 Luis HERNANDEZ MEX 24
Humberto CONTRERAS MEX 24 S
29 Min-Seok KIM KOR 26
Oh-Reum CHA KOR 26 S
Min Seok SEO KOR 26 S
30 Zoltan KELEMEN ROU 27
32 Igor MACYPURA SVK 29
Peter REITMAYER SVK 29 S
Jakub STROBL SVK 29 S
34 Justin PIETERSEN RSA 31
35 Stephane LAMBIEL SUI 32
Jamal OTHMAN SUI 32 S
36 Kutay ERYOLDAS TUR 33

Twenty-six countries, most likely only six spots available, and Stephane and Fedor very likely to snatch two of them up for Switzerland and Azerbaijan(though the TBC makes me wonder just how long Fedor's paperwork is going to take). For the other four, consider:

Viktor Pfeifer-Austria-Though last year certainly was not encouraging
Jialing Wu-China-strongest Chinese guy, but how strong is that?
Ari-Pekka Numenkari-Finland-Not too far off from qualifying for the free, the highest-ranked skater entered here to not qualify
Stefan Lindemann-Germany-how much will the injuries and missed two years hurt him? and will he recover from them in time to get here in the first place
Min Soek Kim-Korea-really, I'm not sure of anything with this men's field; I don't think I know enough about these guys; this one at least has made an impression
Igor Macypura-Slovakia-Just missed at Worlds

Without any real confidence, I'm going to hazard guesses for Macypura, Wu, Pfeirfer, and either Lindemann or Libiers, who I assume is German's first alternate and I'd have more confidence in than most of the entered field!

 

[Buttercup]

Candice Didier-France, just missed at Worlds, and certainly not for lack of trying
Tamar Katz-Israel-just missed the free skate at Worlds, which should have disqualified her by her federation's standards, but hey, she's here

Didier almost made it despite the horrendous fall and all the related deductions, so I think her chances are very good indeed.
Katz was injured for most of the 2008-9 season and returned to practice two weeks before Worlds. She couldn't do triples and almost qualified for the LP with doubles only (see AS interview). I can't imagine she'll do nothing but doubles this time. Still, even if she qualifies, she will need a very strong showing at Euros for her NOC/Federation to send her to Vancouver.

 

[MissIzzy]

Pairs qualifying:

Entries from countries not yet qualified:

1 Stina MARTINI / Severin KIEFER AUT 1
3 Amanda SUNYOTO-YANG / Darryll SULINDRO-YANG TPE 3
4 Mi Hyang SUNG / Yong Hyko JONG PRK 4
5 Maria SERGEJEVA / Ilja GLEBOV EST 5
11 Jessica CRENSHAW / Chad TSAGRIS GRE 9
12 Nicole DELLA MONICA / Yannick KOCON ITA 10
Marika ZANFORLIN / Federico DEGLI ESPOSTI ITA 10 S
13 Joanna SULEJ / Mateusz CHRUSCINSKI POL 11
Elizabeth HARB / Patryk SZALASNY POL 11 S
Krystyna KLIMCZAK / Janusz KARWETA POL 11 S
16 Gabriela CERMANOVA / Martin HANULAK SVK 13
17 Anais MORAND / Antoine DORSAZ SUI 14
22 Marina AGANINA / Dmitri ZOBNIN UZB

However, I don't think Jessica Crenshaw has Greek citizenship, or that Greece has any other pairs, so unless she gets it special, there are nine countries contending for four spots, with noone far enough ahead of the field to be considered absolute locks. With this few entries you might as well consider them all:

Martini & Keifer-Austria-never heard of these two...
the Yangs-Chinese Taipei-not very likely, though
Sung & Jong-North Korea-not very likely either, though North Korea did get a pair in last time around
Sergejeva & Glebov-Estonia-definitely more chance than those listed above
Della Monica & Kocon-Italy-did extremely well at Europeans last year
Sulej & Chruscinski-Poland-somewhere between the previous two and the two before them
Cermanova & Hanulak-Slovakia-16th at Junior Worlds, would need a big leap up
Morand & Dorsaz-Switzerland-just missed at Worlds
Aganina & Zobin-Uzbekistan-again not likely, but she made it to Torino with a previous partner

Pretty quickly, it looks like Morand & Dorsaz, Della Monica & Kocon, Sergejeva & Glebov, and probably Sulej & Chruscinski, though the last have the greatest chance of being upset. Then everyone else waits to see if anyone gets injured, since that's such a big hazard in pairs

 

[MissIzzy]

Ice Dance

Entries from countries not yet qualified-Updated August 14):

1 Danielle OBRIEN / Gregory MERRIMAN AUS 1
Maria BOROUNOV / Evgeni BOROUNOV AUS 1 S
2 Kira GEIL / Dmitri MATSJUK AUT 2
3 Xintong HUANG / Xun ZHENG CHN 3
Xiaoyang YU / Chen WANG CHN 3 S
4 Lucie MYSLIVECKOVA / Matej NOVAK CZE 4
Kamila HAJKOVA / David VINCOUR CZE 4 S
5 Caitlin MALLORY / Kristian RAND EST 5
6 Henna LINDHOLM / Ossi KANERVO FIN 6
8 Allison Lynn REED / Otar JAPARIDZE GEO 8
12 Nikki GEORGIADIS / Graham HOCKLEY GRE 11
13 Nora HOFFMANN / Maxim ZAVOZIN HUN 12
Zsuzsanna NAGY / Mate FEJES HUN 12 S
18 Leonie KRAIL / Oscar PETER SUI 17

And now the very big question of citizenship comes up, including in how many spots are available; does anyone have any idea if Lithuania will be able to use to the spot it earned at Worlds last year? Among the teams contending here, three have skaters with possible citizenship barriers(though a recent IceNetwork article about Mallory and Rand made this sound like it was not a problem) There could either by five or six spots available, depending on what Lithuania does. Assume Hoffman & Zavozin for Hungary for one of them(though consider their luck, maybe that's not a good idea!), considering the other nine entries:

O'Brien & Merriman-Australia-never score very high, probably alternates at best
Geil & Matsjuk-Austria-assuming she's Austrian(anyone know?), and any good, they've got a good chance
Huang & Zheng-China-also a chance, though even if they earn the spot, they'll have to defend their own right to it against Yu & Wang
Mysliveckova & Novak-Czech Republic-very good chance of earning it, and defending it against Hajkova & Vincour
Mallory & Rand-Estonia-they can definitely earn the spot, but can she really get the citizenship?
Lindholm & Kanervo-Finland-never heard of them
Reed & Japaridze-Georgia-a year since he was 14th at Junior Worlds. So there's a question of whether they can earn the spot, and then comes that of her citizenship.
Georgidas & Hockley-The better of two teams representing Greece, but still fighting an uphill battle to qualify here, and I have no idea how the citizenship issues work for either of them, as they're both actually Canadian!
Krail & Peter-Switzerland-same position as O'Brian and Merriman

If it's four left over, it comes out to Mysliveckova & Novak, Mallory & Rand(if she can get the citizenship), Huang & Zheng(to hold off Yu & Wang), and Geil & Matsjuk. If another spot becomes available due to citizenship issues, well, I suppose we can dream for Krail & Peter.

 

[siberia82]

For siberia: I like Fedor's chances.

It's sweet that you thought of me.

4 Fedor ANDREEV (TBC) AZE 4

The dreaded TBC is still there????? :banging: I thought the fact that he represented Azerbaijan at Skate Detroit meant that the switch was finalized, but apparently I was wrong. Oh, I'm worried now...

Hmm, I've just noticed that Verner isn't on the list.

 

[alekzu]

Hmm, I've just noticed that Verner isn't on the list.

Neither is Takahashi. I thought he said he would go? Doesn't seem as if any of our Swedish men are going either. Wonder why.

Gotta love seeing Lambiel on an entry list again. And my friend is going to be excited about Linderman.Oh! And Yannick is going. Awesome.

 

[Wrlmy]

Fleurarty: I really really hope she makes it! The athletes from Luxembourg are so pretty, and Fleur certainly looks the part! And her skating is gorgeous

 

[AnnikinSolo]

do you know if this will be on any of the Russian TV channels? I need to know, so that I will know when to turn on my subcscription to WebTV. I only turn it on during the season because of the rather expensive subscription fees.

 

[PolymerBob]

Stephen Carrier and Becky Bereswill are listed as alternates. Man, that must be a boost to the old self esteem, to fail to make the first string at Nebelhorn. hwell:

 

[Sylvia]

Posted by a reliable source at FSU yesterday:

This entry list is not yet the final one and was published prematurely. As there are too many entries, most of the countries that already qualified an Olympic spot probably will have to reduce their entries (only one per category). The deadline for the countries to finalize their entries is August 12 as far as I know.

 

[TtonyV7]

For the Ladies: Here are my predictions, to qualify for the Olympics:

1. Sebestyen HUN - Come on Granny!
2. Helgesson SWE - Either of these talented sisters will for sure! Shoe-in. But, probably needs to finish in the Top 8-10 at Euro's to be sent to Olympics, which is a shame.
3. Didier FRA - Last of my shoe-ins, I was impress with her at Worlds
4. LaFuente SPA - I have a feeling she will join her Male Counterpart to the Olympics, best Ladies figure skater from Spain since Marta Andrade
5. Tamar Katz ISR - Decent jumper, should have her triples back this season.
6. Gimazetdinova UZB - She usually finds a way through. She needs a strong SP again.
7. Cantu MEX - I was impressed by her SP at worlds, she needs to hold it together

ALTERNATES:
- Joelle AZB: Like it was said before, if she can get her papers together in time, she has to be considered in the mix
- Kristin Frank AUT: She surprised everyone by making the Top 24 at Worlds...
- MW Stewart PUR: Don't think she'll make it, but surprise that Victoria Muniz was not sent as well...
- Maxwell LUX: It's been a few years as noted, but her PCS scores will be high
- Movchan UKR: It is almost shocking to me that there is no more talent left in Ukraine.... Unbelievable...

 

[russell30]

Great to see FLEUR MAXWELL on the entry list, she wins hands down on PCS but I worry for her with the jumps.

Julia Sebestyen should win the competition, maybe Candice Didier 2nd and Joshi Helgesson third, dont count out Yan Liu or Anastasia Gimazetdinova who have the experience.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!

 

[SamuraiKike]

The official entries are up at the Nebelhorn Webpage

http://www.eislauf-union.de/NebelhornTrophy2009.html

Apparently they cut down the entries to one skater/team in each category by country (except for Host Country Germany). So no Flatt, Bradley, Takeda, Hubbells, Platonova/Grachev

Still an amazing field and am soo excited to see who gets the remaining spots.

 

[MissIzzy]

Greece has added an ice dance team. I will update my Olympic qualifying post for ice dance.

 

[TtonyV7]

FANTASTIC line up! Especially for ladies.

You got the qualification competition for the open 7 Olympic spots. BUT, the Podium battle is going to be great.

Alissa Czisny vs. Fumie Suguri vs. Sarah Meier vs. Kiira Korpi

I love it! Have not been this excited about Nebelhorn Trophy in a long time!

 

[MikiAndoFan#1]

I'm not sure Fleur will get the highest PCS. Are you guys forgetting Fumie Suguri and Sarah Meier? I think those two will get the highest PCS. Anyways, I hope Fumie wins, despite Japan already being qualified for the Olympics.



Good luck to all!