Is Rachael the one?

[silverlake22]

Maybe someone already mentioned this as I haven't had time to read all the posts but Rachael would really shine if she lost about 15or 20 lbs. Just being honest here not rude as some may interpret..

I disagree. Anyone who can consistently perform 7 triple long programs with a 3-3 combination has to be in peak form. Rachael is the type of skater one would call a sparkpug: she is short and strong. If she lost 20 pounds she'd look like a prepubescent 12 year old and probably lose all her strength. A lot of the really thin skaters struggle with their jumps anyways. Plus not everybody can be as willowy as Yu Na or as buff as Joannie. Rachael's fine the way she is, plus I'm sure if one was to see her in person she'd look quite trim. People look a lot heavier on tv

 

[PolymerBob]

Rachael must be the one because she understands that ........

........... Teamwork makes the dream work!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhvFVHU9BuY

 

[Andalusia]

Rachael must be the one because she understands that ........

........... Teamwork makes the dream work!!!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RhvFVHU9BuY

Lol, thanks for posting the link. Quite a fun vid, and they all seem to get along so well together. I'm assuming these are all the skaters who train with Tom Z. in Colorado.

I'm pretty sure the user who put up the clip is Ryan Bradley. "yeldarbr" = Bradley.

 

[Blades of Passion]

Yes, that's Ryan.

 

[silverlake22]

Haha Ryan Bradley is cool. That is a cute video :yes: . I remember in that show Ice Diaries that aired before the last Olympics one of the girls worked with Tom Z, he seems like a VERY intense coach who works his kids quite hard while still being a nice guy, plus people move away to train with him. No surprises his charges are doing so well

 

[chuckm]

I disagree. Anyone who can consistently perform 7 triple long programs with a 3-3 combination has to be in peak form. Rachael is the type of skater one would call a sparkpug: she is short and strong. If she lost 20 pounds she'd look like a prepubescent 12 year old and probably lose all her strength. A lot of the really thin skaters struggle with their jumps anyways. Plus not everybody can be as willowy as Yu Na or as buff as Joannie. Rachael's fine the way she is, plus I'm sure if one was to see her in person she'd look quite trim. People look a lot heavier on tv

Rachael is very short, less than 5'2", and she has a stocky build. She is never going to be tall and willowy like Kim. She couldn't afford to lose even 10 lbs without seriously destroying her athletic ability. I have met Rachael in person, face to face, and she is tiny in body as well as in height.

 

[silverlake22]

^^ glad someone agrees with me. They showed her parents in some SA fluff, they are both short and sturdy, but with small frames. The biggest issue for a skater is not their weight, but the size of their hips. Rachael looks to have no hips and that is probably why she can jump so well. It said on her team USA profile that she has won presidential fitness challenges in school. I took those in highschool, in order to get the highest level you have to do a lot of push ups, pull ups, and sit ups. She is clearly in great shape.

She SHOULD be the first US pick for the Olympics, but keep in mind that she is still only 17; if something were to go terribly wrong and she didn't make it this year, she could easily go in 2014 :yes:. For this reason I think the 2nd skater will be Alissa, at 22 waiting 4 more years to go to the Olympics might be a stretch. I see her doing really well at Nationals, putting up one good program and one shaky program at the Olympics, end up with a decent placement, then retire from skating and do shows or get married in the near future (not even joking, she is such a throw back to the 1950's, her coach even says so. nice to see a good old fashioned girl in the cutthroat skating world). Zhang and Nagasu are younger than Flatt, and even Ashley is only 18. If Sasha decides to come to nationals they might even let her go because they know she won't be back in 4 years

 

[R.D.]

She SHOULD be the first US pick for the Olympics, but keep in mind that she is still only 17; if something were to go terribly wrong and she didn't make it this year, she could easily go in 2014 :yes:. For this reason I think the 2nd skater will be Alissa, at 22 waiting 4 more years to go to the Olympics might be a stretch. I see her doing really well at Nationals, putting up one good program and one shaky program at the Olympics, end up with a decent placement, then retire from skating and do shows or get married in the near future (not even joking, she is such a throw back to the 1950's, her coach even says so. nice to see a good old fashioned girl in the cutthroat skating world). Zhang and Nagasu are younger than Flatt, and even Ashley is only 18.

I think they will send whoever performs the best at Nats, barring a couple of unusual circumstances. I will say USFS has more latitude than usual in choosing the American team because there are so many possibilities. An Olympic team without Rachel Flatt could still do well, theoretically. (Say Wagner and a strong Zhang). Based on the GPs so far, Wagner and Flatt are the two front-runners, but we have to see how things go for Zhang at SC and Wagner in the GPF (assuming she qualifies). Then things could go topsy-turvy at US Nats like always seems to happen. Zhang traditionally does worse at Nationals so for that reason I think she's less likely to make it, but if Wagner and Czisny bomb, the door is wide open. I think Rachel would have to have the worst performance of her career to not place in the top 2- that and one or more skaters would have to skate lights out.

For the girls whose dreams do get crushed, I hope they're comforted by the fact that they're still young, and can definitely be in the mix for 2014 if they stay healthy. Maybe except for Czisny- this is probably the biggest and best chance she has at being an Olympian...even better than in 2006 because there is no shoo-in (like Cohen and Meissner were), and she'd be in her late 20s by 2014, well past her prime I'd think. Either way, I don't see her staying much longer. She's been around for a LONG time...

If Sasha decides to come to nationals they might even let her go because they know she won't be back in 4 years

Then, there is the unknown variable in this whole equation, S. Whether it will be important or can be simply tossed out depends on whether Cohen bothers to show up, or if she doesn't, submits a petition for the Oly team. If the latter happens, everyone says she hasn't competed in 4 years but then $$ talks and NBC and American skating in general have the potential to really benefit, so who knows. One would hope that they'd have the sense to give someone else a chance than to send a hurting has-been.

 

[janetfan]

. I think Rachel would have to have the worst performance of her career to not place in the top 2- that and one or more skaters would have to skate lights out.

For the girls whose dreams do get crushed, I hope they're comforted by the fact that they're still young, and can definitely be in the mix for 2014 if they stay healthy.


Then, there is the unknown variable in this whole equation, S. Whether it will be important or can be simply tossed out depends on whether Cohen bothers to show up, or if she doesn't, submits a petition for the Oly team. .

Rachael did not exactly set the world on fire last year at 4CC or this season at COC. She did skate very well at Worlds and pretty good at WTT, but Caroline beat Rachael the last two times they competed against each other at International events.

Rachael has not skated a clean SP yet this season either so I wonder if her title of "Miss Consistency" is so valid.

Mirai is still the only USA Lady (or any Lady besides Yuna) to score more than 60 points in a GP SP this season. If Caroline and/or Mirai skate well at SC this weekend I think US Nationals will be wide open.

Ashley could help herself if she makes the GPF and medals. Sasha could still be a wildcard although it seems less likely than it did a back in September.

Alissa could still be a big factor at SC and Natls.

There are spots for the girls who fall short of Vancouver at 4CC at it seems the seasoning could help them. There is also a possibilty that the two who go to Vancouver will not necessarily be the two who go to Worlds.

 

[R.D.]

There is also a possibilty that the two who go to Vancouver will not necessarily be the two who go to Worlds.

True. It's quite possible.

 

[chuckm]

I wouldn't hold out the 2014 Olympics as a 'consolation prize' for Rachael Flatt. Rachael is a brilliant student who is planning on going to college. She might defer for a year or so, but she won't put off college for 4 years. This year will likely be her only shot at the Olympics, and she is working hard to make it her very best shot.

I wouldn't point to the SA SP as an example of inconsistency for Rachael. She WAS second after the SP, and she did get credit for rotating the 3/3 despite the fall. And Rachael's strong suit has always been the FS, not the SP. Many ladies can skate a good SP but struggle in the FS (Nagasu at CoC---1st in the SP, 6th in the FS; Wagner at CoR---2nd in the SP, 5th in the FS).

I just hope USFS will not elevate Czisny to an Olympic slot because of the longevity factor. Alissa is a lovely skater, but a nervous and unstable jumper who has proven time and time again that she cannot handle the pressure of a high-stakes international assignment. If Alissa had been able to keep her cool at Worlds 2009, the US would have had 3 Olympic spots. She blew it, so I hope the US will not award her one of the two Olympic berths.

 

[janetfan]

I just hope USFS will not elevate Czisny to an Olympic slot because of the longevity factor. Alissa is a lovely skater, but a nervous and unstable jumper who has proven time and time again that she cannot handle the pressure of a high-stakes international assignment. If Alissa had been able to keep her cool at Worlds 2009, the US would have had 3 Olympic spots. She blew it, so I hope the US will not award her one of the two Olympic berths.

All good points - afaik, Caroline and Mirai are also very good students.
I don't see how any skater's future plans or longevity should somehow give them an advantage when selecting the Natl team. Maybe that's not quite what you meant.

I hope we see an exciting Natls and the Gold and Silver medalists are selected for Vancouver and the Bronze medalist is the #1 alternate.

I have no idea who it will be though

 

[cornell08]

Rachael's skating actually reminds me alot of pre-2007 Kimmie and Tara.

Mirai and Alissa have hints of Sasha.

 

[silverlake22]

I just hope USFS will not elevate Czisny to an Olympic slot because of the longevity factor. Alissa is a lovely skater, but a nervous and unstable jumper who has proven time and time again that she cannot handle the pressure of a high-stakes international assignment. If Alissa had been able to keep her cool at Worlds 2009, the US would have had 3 Olympic spots. She blew it, so I hope the US will not award her one of the two Olympic berths.

You do have a point, Alissa has gone to worlds twice, and both times she let the US down, finishing 15th in 2007 and 11th last year. In 2005 she was awesome at Skate America and Skate Canada, then struggled at the GPF where she finished last and at nationals where she was 7th. She had a great chance to make the Olympics then but blew it. It seems as though she has been working a lot on her nerves and jumping, but that she still isn't a very reliable skater. Being older now she can maybe keep it together, but she has a lot of pressure on her this year and I don't know if she can handle it. It would be nice to see her make it though

 

[AmEagle3313]

Something I was thinking about with regard to Rachael...some of the most well-respected skaters started out the same way Rachael is: technically strong and artistically, not so much.

Kristi Yamaguchi, Michelle Kwan, and Midori Ito all started out as jumping beans who developed their artistry after they had their technical foundation laid down...Michelle at the earliest age, Kristi really when she was 19ish, and Midori even older before she began really focusing on improving their artistry.

OTOH, Josee Chouinard, Sasha Cohen, Cziny, and even Caroline Zhang have beautiful position and artistic qualities, but there are underlying technical or mental issues that prevent them from reaching the top step.

If Skate America wasn't a fluke, and Rachael really is reaching her technical limit, that affords her an opportunity to focus more time on the artistry/speed/spins/extension issues that have been noted in conversations about her. Artistic skaters do develop at different times, some early, some late. Kristi was more naturally graceful than Rachael when she was her age, but it wasn't until her first World Championship that I felt she really expressed herself and connected with the music and Sandra's choreography (at 19).

I think she still needs more time, and it may be too late for these Olympics, but if she is done growing and has her jumping skills, it's not outside the realm of possibility for her to develop the rest of her skating and be a formidible competitor. She showed some spark at SA...which was good to see and had been lacking (for me) in previous competitions. If she keeps on that track, she could be a contender for a medal in Vancouver (although a longshot), and possibly a frontrunner in 2014, if she stays that long.

JMO, of course.

 

[silverlake22]

I wouldn't hold out the 2014 Olympics as a 'consolation prize' for Rachael Flatt. Rachael is a brilliant student who is planning on going to college. She might defer for a year or so, but she won't put off college for 4 years. This year will likely be her only shot at the Olympics, and she is working hard to make it her very best shot.

Alissa continued to skate while being in school. Granted, she went to state school (due to finances) and took most of her classes online. She graduated with a 4.0 though which could not have been easy, and I think she took classes on campus for 2 or so years. If Rachael hopes to attend an Ivy League school then training full time may be extremely difficult, but if she goes the online route she can probably do both. Kimmie is in college too and continues to skate.

 

[chuckm]

I think Rachael wants Stanford as she plans to major in biology or biochemistry. But she is very unlikely to try to combine college and skating the way Alissa has. Alissa majored in International Studies, with concentration in history and languages. Those courses are manageable in an online environment, but science courses (which involve heavy lab time) are not conducive to online study. And I doubt very much that Stanford would allow online education.

AFAIK, Kimmie's college plans were sidelined when she went to Florida to train.

 

[janetfan]

I think she still needs more time, and it may be too late for these Olympics, but if she is done growing and has her jumping skills, it's not outside the realm of possibility for her to develop the rest of her skating and be a formidible competitor. She showed some spark at SA...which was good to see and had been lacking (for me) in previous competitions. If she keeps on that track, she could be a contender for a medal in Vancouver (although a longshot), and possibly a frontrunner in 2014, if she stays that long.

JMO, of course.

I liked your post. I am not a big Rachael fan but I like her and hope she does well at Natls.

I would say this - if Rachael skates both programs in Vancouver as well as she skated her LP at SA she has a very good chance to medal in Vancouver. None of the Ladies have shown a combination of excellence and consistency this year.

Looking at the GP's as a whole, who besides Yuna and possibly Akiko have made a statement. After SA maybe Rachael cound be added to that very short list.

 

[i love to skate]

Alissa continued to skate while being in school. Granted, she went to state school (due to finances) and took most of her classes online. She graduated with a 4.0 though which could not have been easy, and I think she took classes on campus for 2 or so years. If Rachael hopes to attend an Ivy League school then training full time may be extremely difficult, but if she goes the online route she can probably do both. Kimmie is in college too and continues to skate.

Is there something wrong with a "state school"? :scratch:

 

[janetfan]

I think Rachael wants Stanford as she plans to major in biology or biochemistry. But she is very unlikely to try to combine college and skating the way Alissa has. Alissa majored in International Studies, with concentration in history and languages. Those courses are manageable in an online environment, but science courses (which involve heavy lab time) are not conducive to online study. And I doubt very much that Stanford would allow online education.

AFAIK, Kimmie's college plans were sidelined when she went to Florida to train.

I am happy to hear Rachael is such a good student. I see no reason to give her or the others any special consideration when it comes to selecting the Natl team.

I don't know if I "trust" Alissa in Intl events as some of you mentioned - but if she comes first or second at Natls she deserves to go to Vancouver. It has nothing to do with the fact that this may be her last chance - and likewise, past failures shouldn't determine her fate either.

If some just want to let a backroom committee pick the team then why not just cancel Natls or turn it into a Gala?