Japanese Nationals Dec. 24 to 26

[pangtongfan]

Chan won his first Grand Prix event easily with 4 falls, nearly won his 2nd with the equivalent of 7 falls, and won the GP final by an ocean margin. To suggest he is not the HEAVY HEAVY favorite for the World title this year is silly to put it mildly.

 

[Mirunna]

Worlds are in Japan this year. Chan with 4 falls will not win if at least one of the Japanese men goes clean. This is why I said that if he becomes more consistent, he will be the one to beat. If he will be heading to worlds with the GPF being his only clean competition, I would not bet my money on him.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Kozuka was gifted 164 points with two falls. Japanese (inferior) version of Patrick Chan was born.

Isn't it too quick to say when you have seen neither the skating nor the protocol?

I apreciate what Chan tried this season and I do wish him all the best,but I feel it's early to say he is ahead mentally after just one clean competition. If he skates clean at nationals and at 4 continents(if he goes there) I will be the first one to say he is the one to beat at worlds. He still has not landed the 4T-3T in the sp(Oda did), so he has things to work on.

Yes Chan landed a beautiful 4T/3T in COR. Yes he has things to work on and that's exactly what he's been doing. He has landed each of the new difficult jumps one by one even as the other jumps took turns in falling. You can hear other skaters mention too that once you land a jump the first time, you have the confidence to do it again. He filled in the gap one by one in competitions and is in a different place mentally now. No one knows how well or near flawless he, or any other skater, will be. I'm just seeing he's on the right track in the process. His progress is amazing to me.

 

[herios]

I apreciate what Chan tried this season and I do wish him all the best,but I feel it's early to say he is ahead mentally after just one clean competition. If he skates clean at nationals and at 4 continents(if he goes there) I will be the first one to say he is the one to beat at worlds. He still has not landed the 4T-3T in the sp(Oda did), so he has things to work on. NMura, just because Kozuka had 2 falls here should we name him "Japanese (inferior) version of Patrick Chan"? It's only nationals, give this kid a break. He is learning how to cope with the preasure. Plus, I don't even want to remember how underscored he was excepting this season!

THANK YOU!

And Why bring into the japanese nationals discussion Patrick Chan in the first place? What he's got to do with it?

 

[Mirunna]

I agree SkateFigure with everything you say, the only problem I have with Chan is that while he is working with his issues, he still gets first or second place. The judges love him and he knows it, it's easier to try new things when you have nothing to lose(his silver ar CoR left me speechless) . Mao(you mentioned her) was rightfully off the podium and is in danger of not making the world team because she started to work on her problems. It's not his fault, but you must agree with me, taking gold with 4 falls is a confidence booster.

Sorry, I am offtopic I'm happy that Oda, Dai and Kozu are on the podium.

 

[pangtongfan]

Worlds are in Japan this year. Chan with 4 falls will not win if at least one of the Japanese men goes clean. This is why I said that if he becomes more consistent, he will be the one to beat. If he will be heading to worlds with the GPF being his only clean competition, I would not bet my money on him.

Why would you assume a Japanese man to go clean. None of the top 3 Japanese men has done a clean competition all year and rarely has any of the 3 even come close. The Japanese men are likely to all make some mistakes in which case Chan can afford a bunch of falls and still win, and at the GP final it was Chan who skated closer to clean than any of the Japanese men so far this year to boot. You are talking about Chan needing go clean after a splatfest Japanese Nationals just finished? Chan is the HEAVY favorite to win Worlds this year, period. It would be a huge upset if he doesnt. I am not even a fan of Chan but lets be real here please.

 

[herios]

Isn't it too quick to say when you have seen neither the skating nor the protocol?



.

NMURA is unhappy most likely by how the japanese nationals ended up. In the beginning of the season, he/she was relentlessly hammering down Kozuka on the men's prediction for this season thread, saying that is time that the JFS Federation drop him of the team and replace him with Hahyu who is the next big thing.

 

[pangtongfan]

I do think the JSF federation would like to see Hanyu on the big team. To do so they are more likely to push Takahashi into retirement (as his scores at these Nationals even with his problems seem to indicate) or push Oda out. I think they see Kozuka and Hanyu as their biggest hopes for 2014.

 

[Mirunna]

Kozuka had more that one clean competition: in Paris, except a hand down, he was clean in China too. He was pretty good at the GPF(he wasn't 100% clean, but no one was). This is his first competition were he falls in the entire season. Right now, out of the 4, Kozuka is the most consistent. I feel he deserve to win this.

Splatfest or not, none of the medalists fell more than 3 times

 

[pangtongfan]

Kozuka did, in Paris. Except a hand down, he was clean in China. He was pretty good at the GPF(he wasn't 100% clean, but no one was). This is his first competition were he falls in the entire season. Right now, out of the 4, Kozuka is the most consistent. I feel he deserve to win this.

And how many points behind Chan was Kozuka at the GPF where he skated quite well. How many falls worth of points? Yes home country could mean something but it wont make that big a difference. Kozuka skating pretty good as you put it couldnt even beat out Oda with 2 falls and other mistakes at that event, so just imagine Chan.

Sorry I dont see any of the Japanese men right now as a big threat to Chan for Worlds. I dont even like Chan and would be happy if someone "upsets" him at Worlds this year, but right now he has the be the heavy favorite.

 

[Mirunna]

At GPF, Kozuka had a bad short, while Chan had a great one. Kozuka lost 10 points to Chan in the PCS in the long. All I'm saying is that now, when Kozuka is the nr 1 Japanese men, this will not happen again. Of course Chan will win the PCS over Kozuka, but not by 10 points. So he must be at least relatively clean in order to win, IF others are clean. And while he only had ONE clean competition, I said we must wait to see how he will do at nationals and 4 continents before we make predictions. He lost in CoR to Tomas Verner, so anything can happen. But, if from now on, he stays on his feet, he will be considered the favorite. For me, a heavy favourite is one that dominates the entire season going to worlds. So far, none of the men did that

 

[herios]

I do think the JSF federation would like to see Hanyu on the big team. To do so they are more likely to push Takahashi into retirement (as his scores at these Nationals even with his problems seem to indicate) or push Oda out. I think they see Kozuka and Hanyu as their biggest hopes for 2014.

Hanyu cannot sustain for now a LP all the way through. He is not ready yet. It happned all season long, not just here at his nationals. He is for the future, not for now. Juniors do not have the power needed, they will have to work on their cardio off ice.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Worlds are in Japan this year. Chan with 4 falls will not win if at least one of the Japanese men goes clean. This is why I said that if he becomes more consistent, he will be the one to beat. If he will be heading to worlds with the GPF being his only clean competition, I would not bet my money on him.

I don't think anybody ever needs words in Japan to know Chan will not win a major competition with multiple falls. He won once in a GP event and the detractors turn alarmists to spew their disgust at an imaginary event of him winning a major competition with 4 or even 10 falls.

Instead of seeing and counting his falls and the number of clean competitions, I'm looking at the process and progress. I can't predict if he will win the next major competition. After all, he's doing very high risk programs. But the direction I see is very good. And then there is the side effect of putting pressure on the other skaters. Yeah, I'll bet on him doing very well.

I agree SkateFigure with everything you say, the only problem I have with Chan is that while he is working with his issues, he still gets first or second place. The judges love him and he knows it, it's easier to try new things when you have nothing to lose(his silver ar CoR left me speechless) . Mao(you mentioned her) was rightfully off the podium and is in danger of not making the world team because she started to work on her problems. It's not his fault, but you must agree with me, taking gold with 4 falls is a confidence booster.

Mao was reworking her basic jump technique so all her jumps were affected. (But even without her jumps, her program was beautiful to watch. I knew I was watching a very talented top skater.) She lost too many points, peiod.

Chan, OTOH, had a lot to bank on while he was adding the quad. Judges loved him for good reasons. And, his falls were not so detrimental to his scores as missing jumps were. In almost all cases, he fell after full rotations of very high scoring jumps, so they were never a total loss. He also always got back extremely fast and got on with the program so other elements were not affected. He was scored fairly within the system.

I disagree strongly with argument that Chan would have no incentive to improve or skate clean because he knew he would be gifted anyway. Quite the opposite, if that were his nature, why bother with high risk elements and high risk programs? He could then simply go with easy but pretty programs and not have to torture himself in training just to be attacked mercilessly. His pursuit of excellence and the next level is admirable.

I like the Japanese boys a lot too, and Abbott, as expressed in my many posts. I like them all to do well. But not all can win or be on the podium. So we will see how everything falls into place, or not, for each of them.

 

[Olympia]

Takahashi is on the Worlds team? Whew! And do I gather that Mao is in a good position after the short? Double whew!

 

[pangtongfan]

IHe won once in a GP event and the detractors turn alarmists to spew their disgust at an imaginary event of him winning a major competition with 4 or even 10 falls.

Actually Chan not only won his first grand prix event easily with 4 falls but he nearly won the 2nd with the equivalent of 7 falls. Chan is certain to win Worlds this year with atleast 5 falls. It is foolish to even discuss possible winners of Worlds this year for the men, Chan is already awarded the gold, discuss silver and bronze possibilities.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

But you refuse to evaluate all contenders that way (equivalent of seven falls), which means that you're jerry-rigging your response to make Chan's situation seem worse.

 

[pangtongfan]

Who is making Chan's situation seem worse. I am explaining why he is certain to win Worlds with many falls, despite what some people who have their heads stuck in the sand apparently arent seeing. I am in fact pointing out his situation is much better than those who for some bizarre reason think anyone else has a prayer of winning Worlds this year.

 

[Mirunna]

Who is making Chan's situation seem worse. I am explaining why he is certain to win Worlds with many falls, despite what some people who have their heads stuck in the sand apparently arent seeing. I am in fact pointing out his situation is much better than those who for some bizarre reason think anyone else has a prayer of winning Worlds this year.

Ok, but if by any reason Chan will not win worlds, do you promiss to stick your head in the sand with us?

 

[pangtongfan]

Sure, feel free to remind me if by some miracle that doesnt happen.

 

[Violet Bliss]

Actually Chan not only won his first grand prix event easily with 4 falls but he nearly won the 2nd with the equivalent of 7 falls. .

There you go with your imaginary falls, and alarming near win.

Oda almost won the GPF, the final, not a qualifying round, with 2 falls too, and I don't know how to calculate fall equivalance. What didn't happen, didn't happen. You picking and choosing whatever intolerable probable scenario to vent whatever you like to vent, does not create a fact.

Chan is certain to win Worlds this year with atleast 5 falls. It is foolish to even discuss possible winners of Worlds this year for the men, Chan is already awarded the gold, discuss silver and bronze possibilities

There you go with your imaginary future event. I will bet you anything Chan will not win with 5 REAL falls if you dare. But I wouldn't dare if you count imaginary falls since that is your unique system with nothing for me to go by, unlike the COP. If you challenge results by the official rules, then I'll engage you. With your judging system, I'm sure you will find falls even if Chan does win with clean or cleaner programs than the others.

Speaking of COP and unfair judging and Japanese skaters, I do find the COE deductions too severe on Oda's second fall in the GPF LP. He had landed the 2A really well before he fell for whatever reason. Too bad the fall was attributed to the element.