Interesting IP. I think you're the only person out there that would put Rachael in third, given her poor GP standing. What's your thought process behind this?
1. I want it to happen, so it's a hopediction (hope + rationalization in the form of a prediction)
2. Czisny is the prohibitive favourite: she will have the PCS to back her up and even with her inconsistency this season, she's demonstrated fight and commitment. A clean short will give her room to breathe for the long.
3. Wagner has a monster fire in her belly this season. I think she realizes it's now or never time. She's actually made improvements in areas that have lost her points (those two-foots/URs). I think because her international reputation is a little shaky, she'll have to skate flat out and rely on Nagasu to err.
4. But it's the third spot you asked about. My honest answer would be "I have no idea and think it would be hilarious to see her pull it off given the massive amount of ire she gets on the internet" but more to the point
a) I think she's a hard worker. Now, she might not get to the level of fitness she needs to be at to truly be competitive (in the way you want to see an American lady, at any rate), but I think a strong work ethic will help her get above what she was doing this year.
b) Neither she nor Nagasu has ideal training environments - Nagasu trains at four rinks (it was reported) and has a garagantuan commute. If there was another American lady who was doing well, I'd probably have given her the slot - before this season, I had it for Zawadski. But right now.... I don't know who it is (Cesario was my shot in the dark, but I can't put her any higher).
c) Nagasu.... doesn't have the programs. Doesn't have the work ethic. Nothing about her situation is ideal. And while she's comeback from disappointment (her 2009 LP at Nationals) I have to wonder if this is the year she CAN do it. For all the talk of the judges not holding Flatt up, Nagasu's PCS at SC were 48 and change (56+ at CoC). National judges tend to inflate those they have in mind as the best chances, so I don't think Nagasu can count on that.
d) If everyone's clean, Nagasu's in second. Just don't see that happening, though.
While I find your pairs prediction funny, PoodlePal, I do think we shouldn't coun't E/L out. I actually admire them for sticking to it despite their past challenges and quite frankly while D/C is hyped very much at home and they did well in Skate America, I think judges clearly are willing to score E/L better if they are clean.
I am rooting for them to win the national title personally. D/C has potential, but too hyped given what they have brought to the table so far.
E/L's problem comes from base value/GOE. They just won't do all that well there, even if they are clean.
