American nationals podium predictions

[Pikachuusb]

My (cough, hopes, cough) predictions:

Ladies:
1) Alissa Czisny(could flip flop with Mirai)
2) Mirai Nagasu
3)I want Caroline to pull every ounce of amazing out of her & slide into 3rd
Ashley Wagner(who I really think will be in 3rd)

Men:
1) Jeremy Abbott
2) Adam Rippon
3) Richard Dornbush

Pairs:
1) Denney & Coughlin
2) Evora & Ladwig(I would prefer them to win)
3) Marley & Brubaker

Ice Dance:
1) Davis & White
2) Shibutanis
3) please, please, please Samuelson & Gilles
its a toss up for 3rd possibly Hubbel & Donohue

 

[macy]

i wouldn't count alissa out yet...it was only a show that she skated not so well in, not a competition. EVERYONE has a time or two where they just bomb. her grand prix events were good, despite the injury at the final. i have confidence in her. she is human and makes mistakes after all.

 

[PolymerBob]

That dress(?) is not what I'd expect from a classy person like Alissa!

I don't think she will wear that at Nationals.

 

[ayayukiituka]

My prediction of ladies is like
1 Alissa
2 Mirai
3 Ashley
4 Leah
5 Caroline

 

[Spun Silver]

I'm thinking this is the year for Adam to make the podium. He has two good programs and is skating with panache and confidence. As always I do prehopes rather than predictions, but I'm with Pikaschuub, I'll say Abbott, Rippon, and Dornbush for the podium. I don't care what order as long as Jeremy wins.

 

[Bluebonnet]

Abbott will win and make the world team unless something really unusual happens like last year which I do not see.

I root for Alissa. Cross my fingers for her!

 

[macy]

i know you can't compare across competitions, but i got bored last night and decided to look at some of the GP scores for alissa, mirai, and ashley.

a good SP from alissa= 64.20 (skate america)
a good SP from mirai=60.96 (cup of china)
a good SP from ashley= 55.88 (NHK trophy)

a bad SP from alissa= 57.25 (trophee eric bompard)
a bad SP from mirai= 52.73 (skate canada)
a "bad" SP from ashley= 54.50 (skate canada, listed it as bad because it was a lower score, but still clean with one edge call)

a bad LP from alissa= 113.28 (skate america)
a bad LP from mirai= 98.99 (skate canada)
a "bad" LP from ashley= 109.77 (an edge call and 2 cheats, no falls, NHK trophy)

a good LP from alissa= 121.90 (trophee eric bompard)
a good LP from mirai= 112.26 (cup of china)
a good LP from ashley= 110.98 (skate america, with edge calls on her lutzes as usual)

it's clear alissa has an edge. mirai's LP is just BORING and it shows in her skating, which explains the low scores even when it's a good program. alissa can still score pretty high with mistakes because of her PCS and quality of her jumps when she does them well. mirai's short has potential, if she skated it with more attitude and ENJOYMENT which she has been lacking for a while. ashley can skate a clean LP and SP, and still be way behind alissa because of her edge calls, cheats, and lower PCS. alissa can get a higher SP score with a FALL than ashley does for a clean one (with one edge call). when all of them skated a good LP, alissa was still way higher in points than both mirai and ashley. looking at the scores from this season between mirai and ashley alone, it could go either way. ashley has pretty solid LP marks when they're clean. i think if alissa skates a clean short and a near clean or clean long, she's got the title. but i don't want to speak too soon because you never know with any of them, including rachael's potential progress, which no one really has any idea about.

my predictions for scores, if the three of them skate well:

short program
mirai= 60-63
alissa= 60-65, maybe higher
ashley= high 50's to low 60's

long program
mirai= 115-120, if she has a higher PCS for this program
alissa= 125-130
ashley= 110-120, kind of hard to say

it's a total toss up between mirai and ashley.

 

[tulosai]

i know you can't compare across competitions, but i got bored last night and decided to look at some of the GP scores for alissa, mirai, and ashley.

a bad LP from alissa= 113.28 (skate america)
a bad LP from mirai= 98.99 (skate canada)
a "bad" LP from ashley= 109.77 (an edge call and 2 cheats, no falls, NHK trophy)

it's clear alissa has an edge. mirai's LP is just BORING and it shows in her skating, which explains the low scores even when it's a good program. alissa can still score pretty high with mistakes because of her PCS and quality of her jumps when she does them well. mirai's short has potential, if she skated it with more attitude and ENJOYMENT which she has been lacking for a while. ashley can skate a clean LP and SP, and still be way behind alissa because of her edge calls, cheats, and lower PCS. alissa can get a higher SP score with a FALL than ashley does for a clean one (with one edge call). when all of them skated a good LP, alissa was still way higher in points than both mirai and ashley. looking at the scores from this season between mirai and ashley alone, it could go either way. ashley has pretty solid LP marks when they're clean. i think if alissa skates a clean short and a near clean or clean long, she's got the title. but i don't want to speak too soon because you never know with any of them, including rachael's potential progress, which no one really has any idea about.

I don't disagree with your premise, but a truly "bad" LP from Alyssa only earned 96 something at the GPF. She is not a lock for the podium (much less gold) if she skates like she did there or at the recent exhibition.

 

[tampro1]

Maybe it's to distract from the super slow skating and pitiful jumps lol She's gorgeous no matter what she wears. Hopefully her skating will be up to par next week in San Jose and the worlds. She's our best hope internationally (this year) as the international judges like her and Mirai seems to have lost that spark in her skating.

 

[Mathman]

Welcome, tampro1. Post often, post long!

 

[Jammers]

i know you can't compare across competitions, but i got bored last night and decided to look at some of the GP scores for alissa, mirai, and ashley.

a good SP from alissa= 64.20 (skate america)
a good SP from mirai=60.96 (cup of china)
a good SP from ashley= 55.88 (NHK trophy)

a bad SP from alissa= 57.25 (trophee eric bompard)
a bad SP from mirai= 52.73 (skate canada)
a "bad" SP from ashley= 54.50 (skate canada, listed it as bad because it was a lower score, but still clean with one edge call)

a bad LP from alissa= 113.28 (skate america)
a bad LP from mirai= 98.99 (skate canada)
a "bad" LP from ashley= 109.77 (an edge call and 2 cheats, no falls, NHK trophy)

a good LP from alissa= 121.90 (trophee eric bompard)
a good LP from mirai= 112.26 (cup of china)
a good LP from ashley= 110.98 (skate america, with edge calls on her lutzes as usual)

it's clear alissa has an edge. mirai's LP is just BORING and it shows in her skating, which explains the low scores even when it's a good program. alissa can still score pretty high with mistakes because of her PCS and quality of her jumps when she does them well. mirai's short has potential, if she skated it with more attitude and ENJOYMENT which she has been lacking for a while. ashley can skate a clean LP and SP, and still be way behind alissa because of her edge calls, cheats, and lower PCS. alissa can get a higher SP score with a FALL than ashley does for a clean one (with one edge call). when all of them skated a good LP, alissa was still way higher in points than both mirai and ashley. looking at the scores from this season between mirai and ashley alone, it could go either way. ashley has pretty solid LP marks when they're clean. i think if alissa skates a clean short and a near clean or clean long, she's got the title. but i don't want to speak too soon because you never know with any of them, including rachael's potential progress, which no one really has any idea about.

my predictions for scores, if the three of them skate well:

short program
mirai= 60-63
alissa= 60-65, maybe higher
ashley= high 50's to low 60's

long program
mirai= 115-120, if she has a higher PCS for this program
alissa= 125-130
ashley= 110-120, kind of hard to say

it's a total toss up between mirai and ashley.

The quality of Alissa's jumps? It's painful to watch her set up her jumps with the little speed that she skates with. How she lands some of them i don't know. It's not a good sign only two years from Sochi that the favorite is someone who has skated as a Senior at Nationals since 2002. I just hope next year the younger skates bring it because the group of skaters from the last 4-5 years have had their chances and have failed.

 

[Mrs. P]

The quality of Alissa's jumps? It's painful to watch her set up her jumps with the little speed that she skates with. How she lands some of them i don't know. It's not a good sign only two years from Sochi that the favorite is someone who has skated as a Senior at Nationals since 2002. I just hope next year the younger skates bring it because the group of skaters from the last 4-5 years have had their chances and have failed.

I think saying this generation of skaters have failed, in my view, is an inaccurate characteristic. I think it's perhaps accurate to say that they haven't come up to snuff when compared to previous generations of U.S. figure skaters. Or perhaps, they don't measure up in international competition.

Consider this:
*All but two of the top six U.S. ladies last year made the GPF or JGPF within the last three years. (Alissa, 2010 & 2011; Rachael 2012; Christina (JGPF 2009 & 2010); Ashley (2009)
* All but one of the top six ladies last year has medaled in a GP of JGP event. (Agnes is the only one, but only because she did not compete in the JGP.)
* All but one of the top six has had a top 10 finish at Worlds or Junior Worlds (Alissa, 5th (2011); Rachael 5th (2009); Mirai 7th (2010); Agnes 2nd (2010, JW) Christina 4th (2011, JW); Ashley 3rd (2007 & 2009, JW)
*When adding world berths from the five years, the United States ladies ranked 2nd behind Japan with 11 spots (Japan had 15). Korea and Finland tie for 4th with 10 spots, Russia, Canada and Italy tie for 6th with 9 spots; Switzerland is 9th with 8 spots and Sweden is 10th with 7 spots.
* Also in the last five years, the U.S. has tied for 1st or 2nd as far as number of world berths.

That said, I do think that this group of ladies have not lived up to their potential, certainly, but I think it's uncalled for to call them a failure.

ETA: I'm guessing you will clarify and say that they have failed to either 1.) Get a medal 2.) Get three spots back. And in that case, yes they have failed in doing those things. Still though, I'd like precision and perspective when looking at these ladies.

 

[futureidol]

MEN

1) Jeremy Abbott
2) Adam Rippon
3) Ross Miner

I also want Richard Dornbush and Jason Brown to do well.

LADIES

1) Ashley Wagner
2) Mirai Nagasu
3) Alissa Czisny

I think it's Ashley's year and she has fantastic programs. I don't trust Alissa to skate cleanly, but her programs are gorgeous and if she is clean she'll win for sure. I adore Mirai, but her programs disappoint me this season and she doesn't seem connected to them either.

PAIRS

1) Amanda Evora/Mark Ladwig
2) Caydee Denney/John Coughlin
3) Mary Beth Marley/Rockne Brubaker

Although I'd like to see an upset and M/B to place ahead of D/C. Still mad at John for ditching Caitlin. This is a tough one, it'll just come down to who's cleanest, the top three are evenly matched.

ICE DANCE

1) Meryl Davis/Charlie White
2) Madison Chock/Evan Bates
3) Maia Shibutani/Alex Shibutani

I'm placing C/B ahead of S/S because S/S have awful programs this season. If C/B skate clean I think they'll beat them.

*knock on wood I don't jinx anyone*

 

[Mrs. P]

MEN

ICE DANCE

1) Meryl Davis/Charlie White
2) Madison Chock/Evan Bates
3) Maia Shibutani/Alex Shibutani

I'm placing C/B ahead of S/S because S/S have awful programs this season. If C/B skate clean I think they'll beat them.

The Shibs' season's best is 35 POINTS above C/B. I know people have strong feelings about the Shibs' programs (i.e. hate them), but that's not indicative of how the judges at nationals will respond. The Shibs, I believe, have a higher base value in both programs to begin with and they will likely get +GOE. They also have reputation going for them as the reigning world bronze medalists. They also got some valuable feedback from their GPF showing and worked with Corky Ballas over the holidays, so no doubt that both programs will be in tip-top shape.

 

[futureidol]

The Shibs' season's best is 35 POINTS above C/B. I know people have strong feelings about the Shibs' programs (i.e. hate them), but that's not indicative of how the judges at nationals will respond. The Shibs, I believe, have a higher base value in both programs to begin with and they will likely get +GOE. They also have reputation going for them as the reigning world bronze medalists. They also got some valuable feedback from their GPF showing and worked with Corky Ballas over the holidays, so no doubt that both programs will be in tip-top shape.

C/B placing ahead of the Shibs was more wishful thinking on my part. I fully realize that S/S will likely get the silver and have scored higher than C/B so far this season. However, C/B had freak falls in both their GP assignments and we didn't get to see what their score would have been had they been clean so it's a little unfair to compare their scores to the Shibs when we didn't see what their full potential score was. Also since they are a "new team" they were probably somewhat underscored internationally. Also I feel US Nationals judging has always been more feel/entertainment oriented than international judging (i.e. Ryan Bradley winning gold last year, I realize it's a totally different discipline, but still no one saw that coming). So purely based on artistic value I enjoy C/B's programs much more than S/S's (this season) and I think they are more elegant, graceful, interesting, expressive, fluid, etc. (but that's a personal preference). But I also feel the Shibs are at a disadvantage with the SD because it's hard for brother and sister teams to pull off the sexy Latin themed dances, which I see as another opportunity for C/B to outshine them.

I really am not trying to bash the Shibs. I fell head over heels for them last season and was lucky enough to see them skate in person at Nationals In Greensboro, NC. They had fantastic programs that year, but this year I am not impressed (you say they have hired a choreographer to improve their programs, but I can't comment until I see it and I'm against judging things for their potential). And I feel Madison Chock and Evan Bates are two of the best ice dancers out there and shouldn't be held down just because they have a new partnership.

All this prediction stuff is just for fun, it's just an opinion, I didn't mean to offend anyone's sensibilities. I'm truly sorry if I upset you.

 

[Mrs. P]

C/B placing ahead of the Shibs was more wishful thinking on my part. I fully realize that S/S will likely get the silver and have scored higher than C/B so far this season. However, C/B had freak falls in both their GP assignments and we didn't get to see what their score would have been had they been clean so it's a little unfair to compare their scores to the Shibs when we didn't see what their full potential score was. Also since they are a "new team" they were probably somewhat underscored internationally. Also I feel US Nationals judging has always been more feel/entertainment oriented than international judging (i.e. Ryan Bradley winning gold last year, I realize it's a totally different discipline, but still no one saw that coming). So purely based on artistic value I enjoy C/B's programs much more than S/S's (this season) and I think they are more elegant, graceful, interesting, expressive, fluid, etc. (but that's a personal preference). But I also feel the Shibs are at a disadvantage with the SD because it's hard for brother and sister teams to pull off the sexy Latin themed dances, which I see as another opportunity for C/B to outshine them.

I really am not trying to bash the Shibs. I fell head over heels for them last season and was lucky enough to see them skate in person at Nationals In Greensboro, NC. They had fantastic programs that year, but this year I am not impressed (you say they have hired a choreographer to improve their programs, but I can't comment until I see it and I'm against judging things for their potential). And I feel Madison Chock and Evan Bates are two of the best ice dancers out there and shouldn't be held down just because they have a new partnership.

All this prediction stuff is just for fun, it's just an opinion, I didn't mean to offend anyone's sensibilities. I'm truly sorry if I upset you.

First of all, no offense taken on my part. This is a discussion forum, so I was explaining rationally — though as you probably see from past posts, I'm a fan of the Shibs — why a silver medal is unrealistic for C/B. You shouldn't feel afraid of offending anyone and you should feel free to defend your thoughts as well.

And just because you are a fan as someone, as you pointed out, doesn't mean that they should be free of criticism. I have mentioned in the past that I feel that in their FD that Alex and Maia aren't quite looking at each other enough and it seems more textbook swing than two people doing a swing dance.

That said, they are good at textbook dances, which can be seen in the SD as well, and in this current generation of ice dance judging it seems the ability to do the moves with technical precision is key. This is clearly seen in solid levels and +GOE at the GPF. Their relative lack of connection and perhaps a perceived issue of maturity can be seen in a slightly hammering in PCS scores. (Though they do well in several ares of PCS, such as skating skills).

I think C/B is beautiful and oooze tons of potential, but I don't think they have the TES to back them up. Even if you account for the freak fall and add a few levels on the twizzle sequence from their FD at TEB, which was affected by the fall, I don't think they would score higher than the high 80s. In addition, they did not score a ton of +GOE on the other elements (not affected by the fall). The Shibs, on the other hand consistently score solid + GOE (particularly in their twizzles), and even when they missed levels they still score in the low 90s.

I hope — and believe — that C/B down the road can make things more competitive, a la W/P has with C/P in the last few seasons in Canada, but I don't think it's a realistic prediction that they will overpass the Shibs this year. That said, I also think that C/B certainly have the right to strive and work at beating the Shibs. They are competitors and I would expect no less. (See my posts on the Rachael Flatt thread in The Edge on that topic).

 

[missysays]

Kind of off topic but I didn't feel like starting a new thread to ask- does anyone have the link on the icenetwork site for the live results? It's always so hidden.

Scratch that found it.

http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2012/68266/results.html

Yayyy!! Nationals!!

 

[macy]

I don't disagree with your premise, but a truly "bad" LP from Alyssa only earned 96 something at the GPF. She is not a lock for the podium (much less gold) if she skates like she did there or at the recent exhibition.

at the GPF she was injured, that's why she skated so badly.

 

[macy]

The quality of Alissa's jumps? It's painful to watch her set up her jumps with the little speed that she skates with. How she lands some of them i don't know. It's not a good sign only two years from Sochi that the favorite is someone who has skated as a Senior at Nationals since 2002. I just hope next year the younger skates bring it because the group of skaters from the last 4-5 years have had their chances and have failed.

i blame the lack of success on her coaching. if she would have changed earlier in her senior career, she would have had much, much more success and probably would have made the olympics. it's too bad she waited this long to realize she needed to make a change.

 

[tulosai]

at the GPF she was injured, that's why she skated so badly.

I am a HUGE fan of Alyssa and well aware she was injured. However, she did just as badly at the DCC send off a week ago. If she is still injured I am very sorry but if she is not then the fact is she can skate just that badly when not injured too. I do VERY much hope that she will be put together for Nationals though.