2013WC gold speculation; how does that set up the Sochi results?

[Olympia]

Yeah, I never say never. All the people who said that Plushy was done with have looked pretty silly for the last two years, and then there's the matter of Akiko Suzuki. And Shizuka, who was "past it" at least twice before she won the OGM. At the age of 24. I believe in predicting the future only after it's happened!

(And if we're going to talk about sports in general, anyone who wants to can look up swimmer Dara Torres. She was 41 when she won several medals in Beijing, and I gather she's a likely prospect for this summer's Games as well.)

 

[Poodlepal]

My medal predictions and American results

For the men, I think Evgeni will repeat if he is there. I do not see them giving a gold to Patrick in Russia IF Patrick falls or makes visible errors AND Evgeni does a quad and is clean. Patrick will come in no lower than second, regardless, and the bronze will be between Artur Gachinski/an up and coming Russian and one of several Japanese gentlemen. If Evgeni is not there, push everyone up a slot.

Dornbush and Miner will be like 11th and 12th. Jeremy Abbott will have an off year at Nationals, along with Adam Rippon and Armin.

The ladies--this is one of the weakest fields in a while. None of the current people are a lock to win anything. My guess: Two of the Russian girls will take gold and bronze--though who will ultimately be the best in 2 years is uncertain--and Carolina will get the silver.

Ashley and Gracie will represent their country well, coming in 7th and 8th. Alissa will come in 24th prompting outcries over why she was put in 3rd over Rachael Flatt at Nationals. Rachael will take it in stride and go on to design a really nice rink for the 2026 Olympics.

Canada will win ice dance, followed by Russia, then the United States. This bronze will be the only medal the US brings home. The other Americans will do well, but finish off the podium (but in the top 10)

The pairs: 2 Russians, and one Chinese pair, in any order. Possibly to Chinese pairs and one Russian. The American teams will be whomever came in 1st and 2nd this year, only with both partners switched, and they will both be in the bottom of the top 10.

These are my predictions. I hope I'm wrong!

 

[Jammers]

My medal predictions and American results

For the men, I think Evgeni will repeat if he is there. I do not see them giving a gold to Patrick in Russia IF Patrick falls or makes visible errors AND Evgeni does a quad and is clean. Patrick will come in no lower than second, regardless, and the bronze will be between Artur Gachinski/an up and coming Russian and one of several Japanese gentlemen. If Evgeni is not there, push everyone up a slot.

Dornbush and Miner will be like 11th and 12th. Jeremy Abbott will have an off year at Nationals, along with Adam Rippon and Armin.

The ladies--this is one of the weakest fields in a while. None of the current people are a lock to win anything. My guess: Two of the Russian girls will take gold and bronze--though who will ultimately be the best in 2 years is uncertain--and Carolina will get the silver.

Ashley and Gracie will represent their country well, coming in 7th and 8th. Alissa will come in 24th prompting outcries over why she was put in 3rd over Rachael Flatt at Nationals. Rachael will take it in stride and go on to design a really nice rink for the 2026 Olympics.

Canada will win ice dance, followed by Russia, then the United States. This bronze will be the only medal the US brings home. The other Americans will do well, but finish off the podium (but in the top 10)

The pairs: 2 Russians, and one Chinese pair, in any order. Possibly to Chinese pairs and one Russian. The American teams will be whomever came in 1st and 2nd this year, only with both partners switched, and they will both be in the bottom of the top 10.

These are my predictions. I hope I'm wrong!

You seriously think a Russian team will beat D&W in Sochi? If that happens then we will know the fix is in. But then Russia has a history of cheating that goes back decades so it wouldn't be a surprise..

 

[DianaSelene]

You seriously think a Russian team will beat D&W in Sochi? If that happens then we will know the fix is in. But then Russia has a history of cheating that goes back decades so it wouldn't be a surprise..

So does the US, China, Canada, and every other nation in the world. I know you say that just to make yourself feel better.

 

[Jammers]

Not really. The old Soviet Union was known for lowballing other countries athletes especially in judged sports like gymnastics. The good old Soviet Bloc always stuck together to make sure their athletes won. And i remember the East geman women of the 70's and 80's who dominated swimming for so long until it finally came out how they were all taking steroids. Unlike other countries where it was individuals who were doing steroids with the communists countries it was sanctioned by the sports federations.

 

[DianaSelene]

Really? And I assume the Soviet Union was the only one to do it...

Of course you won't remember some of these US and Canadian steroid scandals: Marion Jones, Floyd Landis, Ben Johnson. Tonya Harding played it fair too in the Kerrigan scandal. Countless major league baseball scandals? Nope, definitely not. The Soviets are the only cheaters out there... Give me a break. Type steroid scandals in to google and see how many you can find. Easy to poke fingers at other nations and forget about your own.

But that's ok. Some people prefer to live in denial.

 

[dorispulaski]

Nope. I certainly believe there are other cheaters/people trying to influence results improperly out there besides Russians, and in the day, citizens of the Soviet Union.


Inman is American.

Balkov is Ukrainian.

Senft is Canadian.

Gaillhaguet & Le Gougne are French.

And Speedy, who more or less ignored a lot of the shenanigans is Italian.

Nope, we have lots of people & federations trying to get unfair advantage in a subjectively judged sports, including in skating. No surprise there, IMO.

And as to the original question about whether Worlds 2013 will have a big influence on Olympics 2014, in 2009 D&W and V&M were nearly tied for 3rd & 4th (V&M just ahead). Worlds was won by Domnina & Shabalin, 2nd place Belbin & Agosto. And Olympics was V&M, D&W, Domnina & Shabalin, Belbin Agosto.

In Pairs, S&S won, Zhang & Zhang were 2nd, and K&S 3rd. At Olympics, Shen & Zhao won, Pang & Tong second, and S&S third. S&Z did not compete in 2009, and the Zhangs didn't medal.

In Men's in 2009, Lysacek won, but second place went to Chan , and third place to Joubert. Granted, Lysacek won Olympics too, but Plush, who wasn't even at 2009 Worlds, was second, and Takahashi was third, and he wasn't at Worlds in 2009 either. Chan & Joubert did not medal in 2010.

So it isn't a requirement even to be at Worlds the year before Olympics to medal or even to win.

Ladies 2009 was more predictive: Kim won, Rochette second, Ando third, Asada fourth. At Olympics, Kim 1st, Asada 2nd, Rochette third.

 

[DianaSelene]

Nope. I certainly believe there are other cheaters/people trying to influence results improperly out there besides Russians, and in the day, citizens of the Soviet Union.

Balkov is Ukrainian.

Senft is Canadian.

Inman is American.

Gaillhaguet & Le Gougne are French.

And Speedy, who more or less ignored a lot of the shenanigans is Italian.

Nope, we have lots of people & federations trying to get unfair advantage in a subjectively judged sport. No surprise there, IMO.

That was exactly my point, Doris. But close-minded people prefer to look at things only one way. Let's just blame everything on communism: plagues, wars, death. But I'll stop my rant.

 

[dorispulaski]

I just wanted to be sure that you didn't feel alone in your position; it isn't always a popular one.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I think it would require a considerable perfect storm for Poodlepal's suggestion - a Russian team to beat an American team in ice dance by Sochi - to come to fruition, though.

 

[dorispulaski]

Zhulin could pull a miracle with Bobrova & Soloviev-they are hard workers, and he's going back to basics with them, which is just what they need. I could see them in 3rd, definitely, and as ice is slippery, who knows what could happen? They might finish better than that. Or not.

Despite their physical beauty and performance ability, I have less expectations for I&K. I am still waiting to see them start a season in good shape, something that is a sign to me of the point where a team understands that work, and not just innate talent and politics, is required to win. They have left it rather late in the quad.

I'm excited to see what Shpilband does with Riazanova & Tkachenko. A lot of their problems seem to be due to someone in Russia not understanding what it takes to get Level 4 all the time in the non-step elements. Shpilband can certainly fix that.

And Pushkash & Guerreiro have been improving, but I don't expect podiums for them till the next quad; the same with Sinitsina & Zhiganshin.

Having so many good teams that aren't yet great in Russia confuses things. The US has a similar problem with ladies. None of them is stellar, and there are so many of them that are really quite good that none of them really gets traction internationally at the senior level.

 

[gmyers]

Zhulin should not be considered someone who knows how to get high levels in technical elements. When he had both I/K and P/B it took him forever to get P/B high levels and maybe that wasn't even him and I/K were never there under Zhulin. You can definitely say P/B are hard workers and I/K don't really like to do any work but it was not immediate with P/B that they were being given level 4 things 2010-2011. It took a lot of time to get them the levels under Zhulin. It was a constant struggle for a team that works hard. B/S may work hard but have the same problems P/B did. A coach or a whole team that has no clue or takes forever to learn. When P/B moved away from Zhulin they were a far superior team in every way.

 

[blue_idealist]

My medal predictions and American results

For the men, I think Evgeni will repeat if he is there. I do not see them giving a gold to Patrick in Russia IF Patrick falls or makes visible errors AND Evgeni does a quad and is clean. Patrick will come in no lower than second, regardless, and the bronze will be between Artur Gachinski/an up and coming Russian and one of several Japanese gentlemen. If Evgeni is not there, push everyone up a slot.

Dornbush and Miner will be like 11th and 12th. Jeremy Abbott will have an off year at Nationals, along with Adam Rippon and Armin.

The ladies--this is one of the weakest fields in a while. None of the current people are a lock to win anything. My guess: Two of the Russian girls will take gold and bronze--though who will ultimately be the best in 2 years is uncertain--and Carolina will get the silver.

Ashley and Gracie will represent their country well, coming in 7th and 8th. Alissa will come in 24th prompting outcries over why she was put in 3rd over Rachael Flatt at Nationals. Rachael will take it in stride and go on to design a really nice rink for the 2026 Olympics.

Canada will win ice dance, followed by Russia, then the United States. This bronze will be the only medal the US brings home. The other Americans will do well, but finish off the podium (but in the top 10)

The pairs: 2 Russians, and one Chinese pair, in any order. Possibly to Chinese pairs and one Russian. The American teams will be whomever came in 1st and 2nd this year, only with both partners switched, and they will both be in the bottom of the top 10.

These are my predictions. I hope I'm wrong!

You think Savchenko/Szolkowy will be off the podium in pairs?!

 

[skateluvr]

Surprising predictions from poodlepal. Head scratching for sure. S/S are podium certantly barring injury that really gets in the way.

 

[skateluvr]

Imagine if Miki's gumption spreads. Yuna says, well, I'll beat another Japanese girl at the top. And Rochette looks at Canada and says-easy championship- I could take bronze-if the podium came back, all 3, what a glorious fight with Caro, Liza, Ashley in the mix.


Who is the likely Japanese World team next year/ I hope Mao, I think Miki and Akiko or Kanako. Wish we had their 3 spot not enough for the greats problem. Japanese Nationals is a truly big talent event.

 

[deedee1]

Zhulin could pull a miracle with Bobrova & Soloviev-they are hard workers, and he's going back to basics with them, which is just what they need. I could see them in 3rd, definitely, and as ice is slippery, who knows what could happen? They might finish better than that. Or not.

Zhulin should not be considered someone who knows how to get high levels in technical elements. When he had both I/K and P/B it took him forever to get P/B high levels and maybe that wasn't even him and I/K were never there under Zhulin. You can definitely say P/B are hard workers and I/K don't really like to do any work but it was not immediate with P/B that they were being given level 4 things 2010-2011. It took a lot of time to get them the levels under Zhulin. It was a constant struggle for a team that works hard. B/S may work hard but have the same problems P/B did. A coach or a whole team that has no clue or takes forever to learn. When P/B moved away from Zhulin they were a far superior team in every way.

I am the least familiar with CoP rules for ice dance, so I just have no idea if Zhulin is a good coach or not. But I really enjoyed Azerbaijan's Zlobina & Sitnikov LP to French musician Rene Aubry at the Nice Worlds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zx8kN3GFyEc

I saw their performance on TV without knowing who the coach was or who did the choreo. But I did not have to check their bio afterwards, you know, because in the middle of their LP I already knew it must be Zhulin. Yes, it might not be choreographed CoP-friendly. Yes, this one was far from so-called the 'winning' program. But it was so much different from other so-so programs skating to dramatic music with O face and flailing arms, or skating to lovely music while doing super-difficult dance lifts... It was original and so cool!! That was the Zhulin and the typical of his programs I used to enjoy a couple of years ago. We used to get to see one or two programs that looked original in music selection and its style at competitions. Part of me miss those days.

 

[redwing]

Here is my prediction on who will medal and why. I view the ISU as an international business and what is the main focus of any business ? To maximize profits and keep shareholders happy. How to maximize profits ? The hardcore fans of figure skating will be there every year more or less so ISU will appeal to the casual fans. The key will be trying to retain casual fans who will be turned off by the same person winning year after year after year.

Any successful business closely monitors trends and the current business model is not to let a skater become a champion for three consecutive years. Yagudin's third straight was in 2000 and noone has done it since. With lower attendance the days of dynasties are over and ISU will milk their commodities (skaters) as much as they can. Barring a bad skate the winners will be as follows.

Mens: Daisuke, he has better appeal to casual fans over Chan, plus chan won the last two so he won't win again. Hanyu will win if Dai flops and the others will fight for 2-3. Weir is there only to increase revenue. Plush won't be at WC but will be at Sochi.

Ladies: Kostner or Aikiko as their stock is very high. One of the Russian wunderkids will take silver. Miki and everyone else will fight for bronze. Yuna isn't coming back.

Pairs: V/T will take gold as S/S won the last two. If V/T flops then P/T will take their spot. S/S and others fight for 2-3.

Dance: V/M wins gold at WC but D/W wins gold at Sochi. Others fight for 3rd.

If I was on the bod for ISU, that would be my business projection for fiscal 2013 to maximize profits and keep shareholders happy.

 

[Mathman]

^ Who are the stockholders of the ISU?

 

[redwing]

^ Who are the stockholders of the ISU?

The nation federations who are ISU members are the principal shareholders, some more than others of course.

 

[NorthernDancers]

This whole concept makes me more than a little ill. And if it were ever to be true, skating risks getting thrown from the Olympics for good this time. This is a sport, not a business of shareholders or popularity contest. The scandal in Salt Lake was the single biggest contributor to people not participating in or supporting or watching skating. The sport cannot survive another judging/credibility scandal. It's one thing to be a conspiracy theorist. It's another thing for these theories to be true.