Alissa Czisny Update!

[fairly4]

Thank you Mathman and chuckm.
That clears up,some.
Also,alissa has a good of chance as agnes, christina, of making the team
I am,assuming ashley and gracie are in. not locks,but better bets than,the rest, depening on how next season including natls,unfold.

 

[sky_fly20]

Czisny still has a much better chance than Nagasu or Zhang
her real competition will be Zawadzki who seems to be favored by the US Fed.

 

[mskater93]

I disagree - I think the third spot has many contenders: Zawadski, Nagasu, Czisny, Gao, and Hicks all come to mind as roughly equal. Of that list, whoever is cleanest will go to Sochi. Zhang I agree - not much of a chance as her window of opportunity to improve her SS is closing and it still is not good.

 

[silverlake22]

Czisny still has a much better chance than Nagasu or Zhang
her real competition will be Zawadzki who seems to be favored by the US Fed.

And Gao who has the best international results. IMO Gao and Zawadzki are the frontrunners, Nagasu and Czisny are the next in line (along with maybe Hicks), then Zhang is at the bottom of a 3rd tier consisting of several skaters who have a very slight chance to make the team but most likely won't, off the top of my head this would be skaters like Edmunds, Wang, Miller, and Cesario, but I feel even among this group Zhang would be behind all the ladies I just mentioned. Doesn't mean it can't happen but it's a tall order.

 

[b-man]

And Gao who has the best international results. IMO Gao and Zawadzki are the frontrunners, Nagasu and Czisny are the next in line (along with maybe Hicks), then Zhang is at the bottom of a 3rd tier consisting of several skaters who have a very slight chance to make the team but most likely won't, off the top of my head this would be skaters like Edmunds, Wang, Miller, and Cesario, but I feel even among this group Zhang would be behind all the ladies I just mentioned. Doesn't mean it can't happen but it's a tall order.

Caroline isn't getting much love in this thread, so I will give her some love on her birthday. let's remember, only a year ago she was fourth at Nationals, and a few thought she was held down at that. At four continents, she got a bronze, one spot behind Mao, and ahead of Murakami. The US Fed fav Agnes was three spots behind Caroline, and 19 points behind. Yes, 19 points! Caroline admittedly had a subpar GP season this year. At Nationals, she was hit with a downgrade call on her 3Lo-3Lo, which was controversial. I understand their was a dispute between some of the judges and the controller, a dispute which extended to these boards where some posters insisted the combo was good, and others insisted the controller was correct. That call cost her about 5-7 points, which caused her to finish behind Wang and Hannah Miller. As i have mentioned before, there was only one skater in Omaha who got standing ovations in both the SP and FS. It wasn't Wagner nor Gold, it wasn't Agnes nor christina, it was Caroline whose programs, scorned by the judges, were loved by the crowd.

 

[aftertherain]

Caroline isn't getting much love in this thread, so I will give her some love on her birthday. let's remember, only a year ago she was fourth at Nationals, and a few thought she was held down at that. At four continents, she got a bronze, one spot behind Mao, and ahead of Murakami. The US Fed fav Agnes was three spots behind Caroline, and 19 points behind. Yes, 19 points! Caroline admittedly had a subpar GP season this year. At Nationals, she was hit with a downgrade call on her 3Lo-3Lo, which was controversial. I understand their was a dispute between some of the judges and the controller, a dispute which extended to these boards where some posters insisted the combo was good, and others insisted the controller was correct. That call cost her about 5-7 points, which caused her to finish behind Wang and Hannah Miller. As i have mentioned before, there was only one skater in Omaha who got standing ovations in both the SP and FS. It wasn't Wagner nor Gold, it wasn't Agnes nor christina, it was Caroline whose programs, scorned by the judges, were loved by the crowd.

And it was Caroline who made Scott Hamilton cry.

 

[sky_fly20]

And Gao who has the best international results. IMO Gao and Zawadzki are the frontrunners, Nagasu and Czisny are the next in line (along with maybe Hicks), then Zhang is at the bottom of a 3rd tier consisting of several skaters who have a very slight chance to make the team but most likely won't, off the top of my head this would be skaters like Edmunds, Wang, Miller, and Cesario, but I feel even among this group Zhang would be behind all the ladies I just mentioned. Doesn't mean it can't happen but it's a tall order.

that is provided "if: Gao maintains her level of consistency showed in GP next Season
Csizny , Zawadzki, Gao are on equal chance maybe also Mirai
Zhang is done and worst even national judges are dumping her

 

[mskater93]

And it was Caroline who made Scott Hamilton cry.

Because he knows how much work she's put into her improvements and how much she loves the sport. Same with the crowd her gave her a standing O. Sorry, but Zhang has some severe technical issues with her blade to ice skills along with many of her jumps. She's made minimal effort on the blade to ice skills in the last several seasons (or at least it appears that way to me as a skater, but perhaps she just can't translate what she's worked on to competition?), but some of her jumps have shown significant improvement. Zhang looks incredibly labored in her stroking technique which is a big automatic slam in SS mark which means that all of her PCS are going to be lower in general...

 

[Mathman]

People cried (me, too) at Caroline's performance because she skated well. Good for her, good for her! It's not always about medals.

 

[silverlake22]

that is provided "if: Gao maintains her level of consistency showed in GP next Season
Csizny , Zawadzki, Gao are on equal chance maybe also Mirai
Zhang is done and worst even national judges are dumping her

The way I see it, Gao maintaining her consistency (and upping her ante, because she has actually done 3f-3t, well, multiple times in competition before) is less of an if than:

Zawadzki suddenly developing it when she hasn't had it for the past 3 seasons and is talking about adding in 3lz-3t, 2a-3t, and 3lo to her program

OR

Czisny suddenly developing high quality jumps (which she's never had) and consistency (which she had for one season) after coming off two serious injuries which both required surgery, on the same hip, at the age of 26

OR

Nagasu suddenly returning to form we haven't seen in 4 years after going through major coaching and physical changes during the time that's elapsed, and not URing her jumps, an issue she has struggled with since she was a 14 year old that weighed about 70 lbs.

.......Gao was more consistent this season then she's been in the past but she was never a headcase to the level of Czisny or Zawadzki apart from that one time she tanked at COR (the other two have blown it far, far more times than once, and to that degree at least once each, actually Czisny a few times). Her maintaining consistency does not require her developing something she's never had or had for the blink of an eye and then lost, can't say the same for the others. Have you guys ever seen Agnes do a 3lz-3t in competition before? I've never seen her try, and considering how she keeps falling on 2a as of late, I'm skeptical about 2a-3t as well (though she has done that with some success in the past at least).

Zawadzki pretty much always doubles one of her lutzes or flips, Czisny pretty much always botches one (or more) of her lutzes or flips in some form or another, and Nagasu pretty much always URs one (or more) of her lutzes or flips, so I'm really having a hard time seeing how people see them as having equal, or even better, chances at making the Olympic team compared to Gao, who has nice jumps and usually rotates and lands them, rarely making more than 1 major error in a program (compared to like 3 or 4 for the others). PCS wise they are all comparable, except for maybe Czisny at her best which I doubt she will be given all she's been through. US judges don't love Nagasu and they may be over Czisny and the huge marks for Zawadzki at Nationals could change, especially if she continues to falter in comparison to her teammates internationally. Gao creamed GRACIE GOLD at 4CC, if that doesn't say something, idk what does.

 

[jaylee]

Gao creamed GRACIE GOLD at 4CC, if that doesn't say something, idk what does.

...It says that Gracie had a poor showing while Gao had a good showing, and Gao beat her for the first time after losing to her at Nationals and 2012 Junior Worlds. Doesn't mean anything more than that. Wasn't that Gao's only time beating Agnes as well, out of many more competitions?

I seriously doubt that Gao would've placed 6th (or higher) at Worlds as Gracie did.

 

[mskater93]

I wouldn't call Gao beating Gold at 4CC "creamed", especially since Gold was "coming down" off a peak from Nationals. I doubt Gao would have put up a similar score or result at Worlds as Gold.

People say the chances are equal because for some reason, Gao doesn't get the scores at Nationals because there is something lacking in her skating. Her BV is good enough but her GOEs need major improvement.

 

[Sk8Boi]

I wouldn't call Gao beating Gold at 4CC "creamed", especially since Gold was "coming down" off a peak from Nationals. I doubt Gao would have put up a similar score or result at Worlds as Gold.

People say the chances are equal because for some reason, Gao doesn't get the scores at Nationals because there is something lacking in her skating. Her BV is good enough but her GOEs need major improvement.

Hi mskater!!!!As you and I both know from being on the same early hour weekend ice with the Gold sisters and their coach, Gracie and her sister are very special skaters and we have seen close up what Gracie can do. I believe what people like to do, especially in forums like this, is criticize the up-and-coming skaters who have lots of hype and then tear them down when they do not have perfect performances time after time after time again. It gets especially worse when the newer, hyped skater is doing better than a fan's personal favorite, and that fan will post ridiculous, OTT criticisms to boost their fave and tear down the hyped skater.

We have seen it time and time and time and time and time and time again, and time and time and time and time and time again on Golden Skate and other similar website Forums. YAWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Gracie is a much better prospect now for future success for the US Ladies than ANY OTHER SKATER WE HAVE. Ashley is much older than her and is reaching her shelf life in 2014, Gracie is young, has triple-triples and Junior World/GPF glory and a very SOLID start on the senior scene with a Silver at US NATs and a 6th at Worlds with a WONDERFUL FS full of difficulty.

She is the best prospect for the US. People will argue about their other faves, like Miller and the others seen at this year's Nats, but they do not have Gracie's level of international, senior exposure and her level of jumping and spinning.

Gracie Gold is the future of US Ladies FS right now. I agree with mskater93, and everyone else will just have to deal with it.

Gracie is the best US Ladies prospect for future success on the world stage. PointBlank.COM.

 

[mskater93]

sk8boi-this is why I avoid that session now. Carley G has taken out a kid (kid's fault) and between both Gold twins, Lexi Verhulst, and the up and coming stable full of younger kids Alex has on it (Maxine Bautista, Juvenile medalist for one), it's just way too busy and populous. It would be good to run into you again soon as I've missed sharing ice with you.

 

[b-man]

The way I see it, Gao maintaining her consistency (and upping her ante, because she has actually done 3f-3t, well, multiple times in competition before) is less of an if than:

Zawadzki suddenly developing it when she hasn't had it for the past 3 seasons and is talking about adding in 3lz-3t, 2a-3t, and 3lo to her program

Good analysis. I think the USFS Fed prefers Zawadski for the 3rd spot, with Gao second, followed by Nagasu and Czisny. I think Gao should have the edge, followed by Nagasu and Agnes (who has never exceeded 166 internationally). Czisny is a complete unknown at this point, but could return to the mix. I don't expect Edmunds to be in the mix for 2014.

 

[ForeverFish]

...It says that Gracie had a poor showing while Gao had a good showing, and Gao beat her for the first time after losing to her at Nationals and 2012 Junior Worlds. Doesn't mean anything more than that. Wasn't that Gao's only time beating Agnes as well, out of many more competitions?

I seriously doubt that Gao would've placed 6th (or higher) at Worlds as Gracie did.

The way I look at it, had Gao delivered a performance as flawed as Gold's at 4CC, she would have placed much lower than sixth. The score Gao put up at 4CC was within a point of what Gold did at CoR with a sloppy, mechanical FS, and 4CC Gao was a good 12 points lower than WTT Gold (where she fell in the SP and doubled a 3S in the FS).

Gao has competed better than both Gold and Zawadzki this season, but she isn't going to surpass Gold at 2014 Nationals, or possibly ever.

 

[silverlake22]

The way I look at it, had Gao delivered a performance as flawed as Gold's at 4CC, she would have placed much lower than sixth. The score Gao put up at 4CC was within a point of what Gold did at CoR with a sloppy, mechanical FS, and 4CC Gao was a good 12 points lower than WTT Gold (where she fell in the SP and doubled a 3S in the FS).

Gao has competed better than both Gold and Zawadzki this season, but she isn't going to surpass Gold at 2014 Nationals, or possibly ever.

If Gold skates like she did at SC, 4CC, or even COR then I definitely could see Gao surpassing her at Nationals. Gold may always have a higher score ceiling, but if Gold doesn't skate well and Gao does I see no reason why the latter cannot beat the former at a given competition? Doesn't mean Christina will be regarded by most as the better skater (though I will say why I think Gold is a stronger jumper and spinner, that Christina brings a lot more to the table in terms of artistry, elegance, interpretation, and basic skating - at least for me, but the jumps and spins are going to factor into the scores more heavily no matter how you slice it so I understand why when Gold skates well she scores higher than Gao). Gold will almost certainly be on the Olympic team, but if she has a bit of a meltdown at Nationals, I could see a situation where Gao could beat her and finish say 2nd, while Gracie gets the bronze, and then they both go to the Olympics and controversy of getting "held up" is avoided.

 

[mskater93]

Silverlake, I understand you are a Gao uber, respect it totally, but you must give credit where it's due; and just because Gold is the heir apparent to the ladies' throne in the US and possibly World if she gets her consistency under pressure together doesn't mean you should continue to diss her because she's better than your favorite. It's not necessary to tear down one to bring up another, yet you do that to Gold (a lot) and Brown (consistently when comparing to Farris). It may be unintentional, but it's not right.

First: I would not say Gao competed "better" than Gold last season - I would say she competed more consistently last season in terms of total score variance. Gold showed flashes of what she is truly capable of at points this season and showed flashes of a first year senior lady with some doubts that needed to be worked through.

Second: Gao barely beat Gold at 4C on PCS in the LP. Gao's basic skating is not as powerful and does not look as "easy" as Gold's 95% of the time so, no her basic skating is not better, contrary to your interpretation of basic skating (at least as it applies to PCS). At 4CC, their SS scores were exactly the same in the LP with Gold making THREE major errors, skating seemingly tense as the errors started compounding and Gao making one. Their TR, CH, and IN marks were also very close at 4CC, again with Gold making A LOT of mistakes. The only large gap (more than 0.15 difference) was in PE, and rightfully so. "Elegance" is not a bullet point in any PCS category. It's an opinion. I personally don't find Gao elegant, I still find some of her movement awkward (although much improved over when she first grew) and her Tango program was a disservice to her because it is so mis-matched to her on ice persona (she's not sharp in her movement). Gold's programs left a lot to be desired in terms of hitting her personality along with design and layout last season and she has her issues with a stiff looking upper back when she strokes (part of that is because she is actually incredibly strong and has quite a bit of muscle on that small frame of hers), she's got awesome jumps and high level spins and steps but she's also not a bad *skater* in between her elements in the slightest. She has good speed (better than average) and above average depth of edge on her turns and steps and transitions. This will improve as she continues to work with Marina this spring/summer (it improved a lot in the two weeks she spent with Marina in December).

Third: Gold knew she would need to continue training after 4CC which was a week after US Nationals so she would be ready for Worlds; THAT was way more important in her scheme of the season (but 4CC was basically thrust on her by USFS, it's not like she's in a position right now to say "no" like Kwan ever was or Wagner was this year). Gao knew unless something catastrophic happened to multiple people, her season was ending at 4CC and she didn't need to continue training for Worlds and that she could and should leave it all on the table at 4CC. That means they had different approaches to training for 4CC - Gold to not overtrain and injur herself making her a scratch for Worlds, while Gao knew she would have downtime after 4CC.

Finally: Gold with a couple errors at Worlds (fall in short and a couple turn outs/rough landings and hitting the boards) scored about 8 points higher than Gao's international personal best. If Gao had gone to Worlds and had skated perfectly clean, she likely still would have been ~5 points behind Gold's total with errors, which would have placed her ~8-9th. Again, that is assuming Gao had been perfectly clean.

I think your scenario is off because Gold DID have a "bit of a meltdown" at Nationals this past season (9th in SP, two MAJOR mistakes) and still managed to zoom all the way to 2nd overall with a LP that was the best scoring LP at US Nationals under the current iteration of IJS (ie, leveled spiral sequence replaced with choreographic sequence which has a lower BV). Instead of comparing Gao to Gold and saying she's better or would beat her at Nationals if Gold has a "bit of a meltdown" because Gold had a terrible competition at 4CC a week after Nationals, you should be looking more at Hicks and Zawadski since both of them ranked immediately ahead of Gao at Nationals.

Gold has been evaluating what worked and didn't work for her this season, her first in Seniors, and you can bet that she's going to focus on what did work and how she can use that ALL the time she competes. She's aware of the pressure that's coming and she's determined to handle it constructively. She's decided upon a new choreographer and I am sure she will be working VERY hard with Marina not only on that choreography but also on continuing to improve her overall SS and edge quality.

I am sure Hicks and Zawadski aren't sitting around waiting for Gao to pass them either, especially with Zawadski focusing on 3Lz+3T and getting her 3Lo into her program. Zawadski is just now finishing her first season in her current coaching arrangement with Santee and Krall which is the time when things start to click....

 

[fairly4]

Personally I would like to see the U.s.,olymoic team as

Gracie, Caroline,probably alissa

I know that isnt going to happen since the U.S. Federation been dumping Caroline since2007 when she made the Gp finals and at the 2008 nationsls they held down, tanked her scores yet everone else who made the gp finals they held up their scored and cited gp finals as an excuse..
Also after carolind came in 3rd at Wtt beat out rachel for 3rd place they tanked,caroline amd made sure she wadnt asked to the japan open like mirai, eachel, alissa, agnes, gracie.
I know sone cited competing in Wtt as reason yet caroline wasnt asked. Her name never mentioned.

Now back to olympic team
I think it will be ashley, she has to do something herself to knock herself off.
Gracie,will be on it and showd her improvement unless she bombs gos events ,but then I think if she skates well at natls she will be put on team.

The third spot is between Gao& Agnes.
However I think alissa has a shot what hurts her is her 22nd place at workds and will ghe judges givs her the pcs scores,they use to before her tanking at worlds.
I looked at new rules they dont favor alissa & mirai no huge jumps and spins arent whatuse to be.
They seem on paper to be harder on errors, fallsmandatory -3 regardless of entrance or levels, ursdowngrades, double footing etc.
The rules on jumps dont help mirai, alissa, ashley to a piunt. They kinda of hurt. I
I think the jump rules help christina, agnes, gracie mire maybe courtney but she has skated junior so cant tekk

 

[ForeverFish]

If Gold skates like she did at SC, 4CC, or even COR then I definitely could see Gao surpassing her at Nationals. Gold may always have a higher score ceiling, but if Gold doesn't skate well and Gao does I see no reason why the latter cannot beat the former at a given competition? Doesn't mean Christina will be regarded by most as the better skater (though I will say why I think Gold is a stronger jumper and spinner, that Christina brings a lot more to the table in terms of artistry, elegance, interpretation, and basic skating - at least for me, but the jumps and spins are going to factor into the scores more heavily no matter how you slice it so I understand why when Gold skates well she scores higher than Gao). Gold will almost certainly be on the Olympic team, but if she has a bit of a meltdown at Nationals, I could see a situation where Gao could beat her and finish say 2nd, while Gracie gets the bronze, and then they both go to the Olympics and controversy of getting "held up" is avoided.

Gold had a pretty disastrous SP at Nationals this year (worse, actually, than her CoR FS) that barely kept her in the top ten, and still finished ahead of a solid Gao.

Gold undoubtedly has the best technique in the US, in terms of jumps, spins, AND basic skating skills. Her international best is 12 points higher than Gao's (in TES, obviously, but also in PCS); her score at 2012 Junior Nationals--before the so-called "holding up" started--was higher than anything Gao has put up nationally. Also, Gao's national and international PB are within a point of each other, suggesting that national judges don't necessarily keep her down as much as is sometimes claimed. She will need to be beyond stellar to challenge Gold, and then you have to throw Zawadzki, Nagasu, and Czisny into the mix for the third spot. Those latter three are the "second tier" of the USA's top five, though a case could be made for a healthy, 2011-esque Czisny sliding back into the top three.

Gao probably has better artistry right now, but for me, Gold is far more thrilling/scary to watch because of her difficult technical elements and her vast potential for improvement.