wow...i was impressed by the the highest successful rate of jump is 3A (93.6% from Hanyu)....it's insane...:shocked:
Chan v. Hanyu: 2015-16
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wow...i was impressed by the the highest successful rate of jump is 3A (93.6% from Hanyu)....it's insane...:shocked:
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- Feb 18, 2014
Thanks for all the stats, guys! :agree: It's really interesting to see a comparison of the jump consistency of the top 4 men in the field. About Chan vs. Hanyu, I'm just excited for Skate Canada to start so we can witness a re-showdown between the two. They're both very talented in what they do and it's a treat for the fans to see them both skating at the same competitions.
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- Dec 25, 2012
At least on paper, it seems that Yuzu is the best jumper with the highest over-all GOE of the top 4 guys.
Javi's got the best 4S,
Patrick the best 3T, 3Lz and 3F,
Yuzu the best 4T, 3A and 3Lo and 3S and
Denis, to my surprise did not get first place in any jump and his percentages are quite low compared to the others.
Javi's got the best 4S,
Patrick the best 3T, 3Lz and 3F,
Yuzu the best 4T, 3A and 3Lo and 3S and
Denis, to my surprise did not get first place in any jump and his percentages are quite low compared to the others.
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- Dec 29, 2011
Thank you very much for all the stats! 
Ironically, Javi hasn't landed his first LP 4S with positive GOE all last season (how bad does that make Yuzu sound?
). And I'm not surprised about Denis, he's either very on, or very, very off, so that's got to be reflected in these numbers I guess. He f.e. never landed his 2nd LP 3A with +GOE either last season.
Ironically, Javi hasn't landed his first LP 4S with positive GOE all last season (how bad does that make Yuzu sound?
). And I'm not surprised about Denis, he's either very on, or very, very off, so that's got to be reflected in these numbers I guess. He f.e. never landed his 2nd LP 3A with +GOE either last season.
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- Jan 25, 2013
I'd say Nam is. He was probably the most consistent man (with a quad; otherwise I'd include Ge) last season. His PCS will be mid-80's by the end of this season, and pushing 90 come 2016-2017, and he'll be a gold medal fave come 2018. He's already been able to add a quad in just one season, and he's pretty clutch on his axel and other jumps. Once his overall skating develops that much more and he keeps delivering consistently his PCS will rise to a point where he's a top contender.
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- Jan 25, 2013
I disagree that Chan has the best 3Z (save for statistically) - when he hits it, it's a quality jump, but like Hanyu he has issue with consistency (same with Javier)... to me Ten has the most solid 3Z (and if we're talking about top 4 at last Worlds, I'd definitely give the best lutz to Brown.
)
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- Jan 25, 2013
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Thanks for the data! It's a really fun comparison to see all these skaters.
Some other skaters:
KOVTUN (he has a better success rate for 3Z, 3S, 3T, and 2A than Chan/Javi/Denis/Yuzu; same for 4S/4T but that's probably because doubles/pops aren't considered lol)
4S + 56.5 % (13/23)
4T + 73.1 % (19/26)
3A + 68.1 % (32/47)
3Lz + 83.9 % (26/31)
3F + 0.0 % (0/11) -- awww, darn lips -- no wonder he never competes with 3F anymore
3Lo +100.0 % (2/2)
3S + 83.3 % (15/18)
3T + 86.2 % (25/29)
2A + 95.2 % (20/21)
BROWN
4T + 0.0 % (0/1)
3A + 54.3 % (19/35)
3Lz + 65.9 % (29/44)
3F + 72.7 % (24/33)
3Lo + 86.7 % (13/15)
3S + 57.1 % (8/14)
3T + 71.4 % (20/28)
2A + 100.0 % (30/30) -- double axel king!
NGUYEN (he's got some awesome stats; almost matching Hanyu in successful 4S, a 77% 3A rate, good success rate on minor jumps except 3T which is probably combo UR related)
4S + 66.7 % (4/6)
3A + 77.4 % (24/31)
3Lz + 54.3 % (19/35)
3F + 74.3 % (26/35)
3Lo + 84.2 % (16/19)
3S + 92.9 % (13/14)
3T + 50.0 % (14/28)
2A + 93.3 % (14/15)
Nams consistency was great last season but when you break down his skating there really are more cons than pros. Last season he benefitted from capitalizing on the mistakes of others and being Canada's #1 (I didn't agree with some of those PCS). This season he's going to have to deal with Shoma, Boyang, Adian (who was rather impressive in test skates) and Patrick as well. We will see how he deals with the competition, but I expect a real struggle for him this season, especially if that quad is consistent in the short
That's staggering!
Actually Hanyu has 100 % successfull 3A attempts at all major events since he entered seniors. GPF, Worlds, 4CC, Olympics, Nationals if I am counting well
The only ones he missed were at gp events and senior b I think
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- Jan 25, 2013
I don't think you're giving him enough credit. The only time he benefited from PCS as the Canadian number 1 was at Worlds, while most of the season he was hovering low 70's/high 60's (including a 68 at Four Continents, post-Canadian Championships where he skated really well in the FS). Nam benefited last season because he put out very consistent skates which allowed him to compete with skaters who were getting 10+ higher PCS than him. He was the only clean skater with a quad at Worlds. His programs still had transitions, he performed them as well as he could. I think with a 4S in the SP, and maybe a 2nd quad in the LP, he'll can max out around 85 for a clean SP and 170 for a clean LP.
It's very easy to paint Nam as a kid (I mean, he is), but the same thing we saw with Lipnitskaia/Radionova (and I'm anticipating Medvedeva this year) could happen with him if he continues to be the most consistent skater in the field.
It will be a while before he challenges Chan/Hanyu, but the potential is there, and 2.5 years is plenty of time to get to their level.
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- Mar 23, 2010
OMG that is surreal!!! Actually it is one of the first thing I noticed about him... I remember he did some crazy 3A3A3A before before on a show somewhere.. Thanks for the stats! love them!
He might be. Like Nathan. For now, they're absolutely showing that ability.
But so do many young skaters on their way up. (Brezina looked pretty darn good in 2012 & 2013). The question is always, "What happens after they know they can win?" Believing you can win and knowing you can win are two different things. Every one of the top four guys can do it. And they all know it. (Javier didn't until last year, but he knows now). That's what makes it so hard. They know what they're giving up if they botch that first quad or axle in the program. Makes it so much harder, I think.
Thank you for the stats, dasani. They're awesome. My poor, Denis
. But me thinks his stats look a lot better if you only compare the most high-pressure performances at Worlds and the Olympics over the last three years. Likewise a lot worse if you only compare events on the Grand Prix.- Joined
- Jan 25, 2013
I think in Nam's case, he's very methodical and stays focused. Under Orser, I can't imagine he will slip mentally. His body might change, but I can only picture that helping him and giving him more power.
Wow you are right! Just quickly checked through the protocol, 3A is definitely his best buddy at the battle field
. This has always given him the edge in the TES category:
The TES of his single 3A is worth at least the BV of a quad; the TES of his 3A combo is equivalent to a quad combo.
Take 2015 Worlds for example, I find it is interesting if we look at the 5 highest individual elements of the top 3 guys (SP & FS combined).
[table="width: 500, class: grid"]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 6, align: center"]Jaiver Fernandez - 2015 Worlds Top 5 Elements[/TD]
[/TR]
[tr]
[td]FS[/td]
[td]4S+2T[/td]
[td]
x
[/td][td]
12.98
[/td][td]
1.71
[/td][td]
14.69
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]SP[/td]
[td]4S[/td]
[td]
[/td][td]
10.50
[/td][td]
2.14
[/td][td]
12.64
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]FS[/td]
[td]4T[/td]
[td]
[/td][td]
10.30
[/td][td]
2.29
[/td][td]
12.59
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]SP[/td]
[td]3Lz+3T[/td]
[td]
[/td][td]
10.10
[/td][td]
0.70
[/td][td]
10.80
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]FS[/td]
[td]3A[/td]
[td]
[/td][td]
8.50
[/td][td]
1.00
[/td][td]
9.50
[/td][/tr]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 6, align: right"]Top 5 Total: 60.22[/TD]
[/TR]
[/table]
[table="width: 500, class: grid"]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 6, align: center"]Yuzuru Hanyu - 2015 Worlds Top 5 Elements[/TD]
[/TR]
[tr]
[td]FS[/td]
[td]3A+1Lo+3S[/td]
[td]
x
[/td][td]
14.52
[/td][td]
1.29
[/td][td]
15.81
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]FS[/td]
[td]3A+3T[/td]
[td]
x
[/td][td]
13.86
[/td][td]
1.57
[/td][td]
15.43
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]SP[/td]
[td]3A[/td]
[td]
x
[/td][td]
9.35
[/td][td]
2.43
[/td][td]
11.78
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]SP[/td]
[td]3Lz+3T[/td]
[td]
x
[/td][td]
11.11
[/td][td]
0.60
[/td][td]
11.71
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]FS[/td]
[td]3Lz+2T[/td]
[td]
x
[/td][td]
8.03
[/td][td]
0.70
[/td][td]
8.73
[/td][/tr]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 6, align: right"]Top 5 Total: 63.46[/TD]
[/TR]
[/table]
[table="width: 500, class: grid"]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 6, align: center"]Denis Ten - 2015 Worlds Top 5 Elements[/TD]
[/TR]
[tr]
[td]FS[/td]
[td]4T+3T[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]
14.40
[/td][td]
1.71
[/td][td]
16.11
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]FS[/td]
[td]3F+1Lo+3S[/td]
[td]
x
[/td][td]
11.00
[/td][td]
0.80
[/td][td]
11.80
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]FS[/td]
[td]3A+2T[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]
9.80
[/td][td]
1.00
[/td][td]
10.80
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]SP[/td]
[td]3A[/td]
[td][/td]
[td]
8.50
[/td][td]
1.71
[/td][td]
10.21
[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]SP[/td]
[td]3Lz+3T[/td]
[td]
x
[/td][td]
11.11
[/td][td]
-1.10
[/td][td]
10.01
[/td][/tr]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="colspan: 6, align: right"]Top 5 Total: 58.93[/TD]
[/TR]
[/table]
Total landed quad in this competition: Javi - 3, Yuzu - 0, Denis - 2 (correction made thanks to Ice Dance).
Yet the ranking of the top 5 scored elements: Yuzu > Javi > Denis. This echos what I mentioned earlier in the thread regarding Yuzu's quality 3A combos that allows him to catch up on the lost quad points.
However, the points he was able to catch up with his 3A combos, he lost them when the 4S was popped to a 2S. Popping and Zayak are lethal mistakes in this sport.
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Thanks! I'll definitely look for that thread. It must have taken a lot of time to go through all the protocols in the past 10+ years! We should consider building our database through google spreadsheet or something
Thank you for the stats, dasani. They're awesome. My poor, Denis
I think the data demonstrate that some skaters are relatively consistency throughout the season, while some others might be under the radar for the entire season and then suddenly peaks to WOW us (i.e. Denis in 2013 WC). I wonder if this has to do with how he trains in order to peak at the right time (or he is just not an early season skater).
Speaking of the timing to peak in the season, out of the four guys (Patrick, Javi, Denis, Yuzu), Yuzu is the only one that has the pressure to peak during mid-season. Just like the U.S. Men's field, the Japanese Men National is one of the most intense National competition. Skaters just have to give it all out in order to secure that spot at Worlds/Olympics, not to mention this season there's only two spots left. Historically, Yuzu was able to maintain his peak from GPF to Japan National, ever since the 2nd year of his senior debut. I wonder how much more difficult it is to try to repeat the peak within the same season?
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No, Denis landed two quads at Worlds. Both in the free skate. His first was over-rotated, but he was credited with all his elements in the free.
His quad toe-BV 10.80-1.86 GOE results in 8.94 so maybe that is why it doesn't make your list for top five elements?
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Thanks for the correction! I got deceived by the negative GOE from his other quad
, I've updated it in the original post now :yes:Thanks for the correction! I got deceived by the negative GOE from his other quad
:thumbsup:
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