2013WC gold speculation; how does that set up the Sochi results?

[skateluvr]

Here is my prediction on who will medal and why. I view the ISU as an international business and what is the main focus of any business ? To maximize profits and keep shareholders happy. How to maximize profits ? The hardcore fans of figure skating will be there every year more or less so ISU will appeal to the casual fans. The key will be trying to retain casual fans who will be turned off by the same person winning year after year after year.

Any successful business closely monitors trends and the current business model is not to let a skater become a champion for three consecutive years. Yagudin's third straight was in 2000 and noone has done it since. With lower attendance the days of dynasties are over and ISU will milk their commodities (skaters) as much as they can. Barring a bad skate the winners will be as follows.

Mens: Daisuke, he has better appeal to casual fans over Chan, plus chan won the last two so he won't win again. Hanyu will win if Dai flops and the others will fight for 2-3. Weir is there only to increase revenue. Plush won't be at WC but will be at Sochi.

Ladies: Kostner or Aikiko as their stock is very high. One of the Russian wunderkids will take silver. Miki and everyone else will fight for bronze. Yuna isn't coming back.

Pairs: V/T will take gold as S/S won the last two. If V/T flops then P/T will take their spot. S/S and others fight for 2-3.

Dance: V/M wins gold at WC but D/W wins gold at Sochi. Others fight for 3rd.

If I was on the bod for ISU, that would be my business projection for fiscal 2013 to maximize profits and keep shareholders happy.

Could be Caro or Akiko, but Tut won gold in two GPF events first year as a senior. Russian Fed is powerful. If Liza can do it, she could win gold setting her up for Sochi, with A Japanese and a Euro on podium. I can see that

Chan seems a lock but outcry next year if he wins over clean skaters with higher than hi PCS with two falls. So Hanyu is my guess. He can deliver and fans will be sick of Chan winning events with big mistakes, so Hanyu, OK, Patrick for silver and Plush to save face in Sochi. Battle between Hanyu and Chan. Don't think Dai can do it 2 years from now. Plush said he'd be content with bronze which he needs for his set.

I agree V/M could repeat 2013 but see D/W upset for gold in Sochi. But to Keep Canada happy (the shareholders) gold will have to be either mens or ice dance...so it is Patrick or Voir but not both? I can see that.

Agree S/S won't repeat. V/T will win setting them up for Russian pairs win in Sochi. Pairs is important to reclaim for Russia. They are Russia's best chance for gold or TUT if she blazes in next year. Russia will get medals. Who and what color is what we don't know, but medals are certain this Olympics. If Plush skates prety well and delivers on his 4/3 they can't send him away with less than Bronze. He is the dominant male in Russia, superstar and dominated for a decade. Kwan and Plush. It will never happen again like that.

I agree politics and cheating and favoritism and federations decide a great deal. It would be nice if the best always won, but I expect one scandalous result at least in FS in Russia. We will see. Resurrect this thread 2 years from now to see how we all did on predictions, lol. But without an American getting robbed, no one will much care. It's 10 years since SLC and fans in NA have gone way down since it isn't much televised. How can new fans get interested without free or easy cable access? No new fans just sign up for Ice network...it takes time to build new skating fans. A smart ISU that can manipulate all results will spread the medals around between Japan, Russia, Canada and lastly, Euro, USA.

Agreed Yuna will never be back. Who will be on the ladies Japanese team? Kanako seems for sure-on a roll. Mao? I hope so. Miki? Maybe not. What do Japanese fans predict for the 3 ladies going to Sochi from Japan? Who will be 1,2 3 lady?

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

This whole concept makes me more than a little ill. And if it were ever to be true, skating risks getting thrown from the Olympics for good this time. This is a sport, not a business of shareholders or popularity contest. The scandal in Salt Lake was the single biggest contributor to people not participating in or supporting or watching skating. The sport cannot survive another judging/credibility scandal. It's one thing to be a conspiracy theorist. It's another thing for these theories to be true.

The IOC would never throw the marquee event out of the Winter Olympics. It's the only thing a lot of people watch for the duration of the event and is a huge revenue generator for the organization. Every judged sport is political, and every country does what they can to assure high placements for their athletes. If you work for a federation, the revenues from events and membership pay your salary, and having popular athletes representing your country certainly helps achieve these goals and give you job security. Figure skating is a sport, but business is a huge part of elite-level competition. Just watching this season, aside from maybe a little boost in scores for athletes skating in their home countries, I personally didn't see any medal results that outraged me and I thought could be attributed to deal-making. There are always going to be those who are going to try to impact results, whether it be the judging deal in SLC or Inman sending an e-mail to other judges slamming Plushy.

 

[l'etoile]

If Akiko could hang on to the ability she'd shown in the latest season, I think she'll make Japanese ladies olypmic team simple-handedly. I don't think there's a star-quality or talent coming up in junior levels who could be en-par with current senior fields. Mao will definitely make the team no matter her shape during the seasons.

 

[Mathman]

I view the ISU as an international business and what is the main focus of any business ? To maximize profits and keep shareholders happy. How to maximize profits ? The hardcore fans of figure skating will be there every year more or less so ISU will appeal to the casual fans. The key will be trying to retain casual fans who will be turned off by the same person winning year after year after year.

I can see that spreading the medals around would go toward keeping the shareholders happy. Everybody likes to win something.

The profit part, though, seems more problematical. I don't think casual fans will care whether or not Patrick Chan wins four titles in a row (or even know that he has done so). I would guess that except in Japan most of the money that the national federations make comes from local clubs and ultimately from parents of young skaters. Likewise (except for television money from Japan), the major source of income for the ISU is dues paid by the national federation. There just isn't much actual "profit" in the sport no matter what they do.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Here is my prediction on who will medal and why. I view the ISU as an international business and what is the main focus of any business ? To maximize profits and keep shareholders happy. How to maximize profits ? The hardcore fans of figure skating will be there every year more or less so ISU will appeal to the casual fans. The key will be trying to retain casual fans who will be turned off by the same person winning year after year after year.

Any successful business closely monitors trends and the current business model is not to let a skater become a champion for three consecutive years. Yagudin's third straight was in 2000 and noone has done it since. With lower attendance the days of dynasties are over and ISU will milk their commodities (skaters) as much as they can. Barring a bad skate the winners will be as follows..

1. S/S were champions four of the last five years. Plushenko won three of four world titles and would've won three in a row had he been injury free in Moscow 2005, imo.

2. I'd argue that a dominant champion doesn't turn fans off.... if they like the champion. Kwan being the obvious example.

 

[Mathman]

2. I'd argue that a dominant champion doesn't turn fans off.... if they like the champion. Kwan being the obvious example.

It's hard to predict what captures the attention of fans. Tiger Woods and Rodger Federer were immensely popular during the years that they were beating everyone in sight.

Michelle, on the other hand, benefitted (in terms of fan popularity) from the fact that as good as she was, she was still vulnerable. She won five world championships in all, but only two in a row, and that only once, 2000 and 2001. In both of those years, although she came out on top she had to fight through adversity and count on a little bit of luck, too, to pull it out.

 

[ice coverage]

Single Event Ticket Information and Preliminary Schedule for the 2013 ISU World Figure Skating Championships Now Available

Single event tickets will go on sale Saturday, June 16, at 10 a.m. (ET), for the 2013 ISU World Figure Skating Championships in London, Ont., from March 10-17, 2013.

Skate Canada press release, incl. the competition schedule: http://t.co/jVL6XAQV

 

[skateluvr]

It's hard to predict what captures the attention of fans. Tiger Woods and Rodger Federer were immensely popular during the years that they were beating everyone in sight.

Michelle, on the other hand, benefitted (in terms of fan popularity) from the fact that as good as she was, she was still vulnerable. She won five world championships in all, but only two in a row, and that only once, 2000 and 2001. In both of those years, although she came out on top she had to fight through adversity and count on a little bit of luck, too, to pull it out.

When did skating nation really fall for Kwan. Was it Salome WC in 96? Did Tara have a chance? I recall plain Michelle, jumping bean getting noticed bigtime 93 and 95 tho she was just a footnote to extraordinary Norway Olys. It seemed losing the gold made her number 1. Her humility seemed genuine and her coach and parents loved her so well. She was grateful for silver. What is it about Americans that they so embraced her over golden Tara? For me, Tara was a phenom, extraodinary, pulling off the 3Lx3L. She skated maturely for a fourteen year old but she looked like a child. I think she earned it, but Lyra was a once in a lifetime program and skate. Michelle exuded charm, beauty, confidence. I was surprised Tara's presentation marks were so high. I'll always feel the jump combinations won the day.

I always wondered with Kristi and Michelle if Americans were smitten by thier delicate Asian beauty. I think being different (at least then) from most American ice princesses helped them both. I think America embraced Debbie too in part because she was black and we'd never had a black champion. Wow, these were all talented, hard working, but also very lucky ladies.

I don't follow golf, has Tiger come back to the top? Is his fan base forgiven him and moved on? He had an amazing career even if he never regains where he was. He broke barriers, that's for sure.

 

[mskater93]

I believe skate order won the day for Tara more than anything. If Michelle had skated after Tara, she would have skated just a teeny bit better (everyone talks about her "holding back" a little unlike she skated at Nationals) like she always did when her back was against the wall competitively (think Chen Lu's near-perfect skate as reigning World Champion) and it would have been enough to carry the day.

 

[caseyl23]

I believe skate order won the day for Tara more than anything. If Michelle had skated after Tara, she would have skated just a teeny bit better (everyone talks about her "holding back" a little unlike she skated at Nationals) like she always did when her back was against the wall competitively (think Chen Lu's near-perfect skate as reigning World Champion) and it would have been enough to carry the day.

I've always thought this, too, but for a different reason. skateluvr mentions being surprised by Tara's presentation marks. In her book about the Olympics in 1998, Christine Brennan alluded to the skate order for the ladies' free skate by pointing out that Michelle skated after nobody, while Tara skated after Surya Bonaly, so her performance would look even more artistic - like it belonged in the Louvre was how she put it. As beautiful an artist as Michelle was, maybe the skate order did work in Tara's favor, at least in that respect.
And I don't think there's any guarantee Michelle would have skated lights-out had she gone after Tara. She skated after Sarah Hughes in 2002, and the pressure was different, but look what happened there.

 

[mskater93]

Michelle seemed to be mentally tougher when she was younger and as she approached the 02 Olympics, she seemed to lose that mental toughness to a degree (perhaps due to the changes in the team around her)

 

[Violet Bliss]

Anybody knows why Mathman has been absent these days, quiet even when MK is being discussed? I've missed his input on the current hot topic.

 

[Jaana]

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I believe skate order won the day for Tara more than anything. If Michelle had skated after Tara, she would have skated just a teeny bit better (everyone talks about her "holding back" a little unlike she skated at Nationals) like she always did when her back was against the wall competitively (think Chen Lu's near-perfect skate as reigning World Champion) and it would have been enough to carry the day.

Maybe, but I think that her mistake was that she gave her all out in US Nationals and that kind of performance is extremely hard to repeat a month later. Ilia Kulik was first to skate in the final group and he won. In my opinion it is a very good place to skate really well and scare the rest, LOL.

 

[chuckm]

Michelle seemed to be mentally tougher when she was younger and as she approached the 02 Olympics, she seemed to lose that mental toughness to a degree (perhaps due to the changes in the team around her)

I don't think her age had anything to do with it. Michelle was already dealing with hip pain beginning around 2002 and she may not have been as physically confident as she had been earlier in her career. As the pain got progressively worse, she phased out the 3 loop and stopped attempting 3/3s.

 

[blue dog]

I've always thought this, too, but for a different reason. skateluvr mentions being surprised by Tara's presentation marks. In her book about the Olympics in 1998, Christine Brennan alluded to the skate order for the ladies' free skate by pointing out that Michelle skated after nobody, while Tara skated after Surya Bonaly, so her performance would look even more artistic - like it belonged in the Louvre was how she put it. As beautiful an artist as Michelle was, maybe the skate order did work in Tara's favor, at least in that respect.
.

This was similarly true in 1994. Oksana skated after Bonaly (coincidentally, Bonaly used the same program both years).

 

[Violet Bliss]

Hmmm, who is the Bonaly of today in Men or Ladies whom competitors would want to skate after?

 

[blue dog]

Hmmm, who is the Bonaly of today in Men or Ladies whom competitors would want to skate after?

In my opinion, Makarova--especially if she brings programs like that LP she had last year.

 

[mskater93]

I don't think her age had anything to do with it. Michelle was already dealing with hip pain beginning around 2002 and she may not have been as physically confident as she had been earlier in her career. As the pain got progressively worse, she phased out the 3 loop and stopped attempting 3/3s.

I was implying more that her mental toughness wasn't as sharp that week in SLC as it had been before that point and I attributed that to her dumping Frank and Lori the fall before that. I understand she was having hip pain, but that didn't stop her from skating lights out at Nationals a couple weeks before.

 

[Skater Boy]

And then Michelle sort of just phased out - really sad -- sort of a whimper but back on topic. I think 2013 World's at London will set up who the players will be at Sochi. It will be key to find out if the Russian baby ballerinas are able to compete on the big stage and skate big - no longer like juniors. Can Carolina hold on. Will Miki come back. Is the field weak enough to entice a comeback from Joannie Rochette. IF Mao has another poor world's I think we may see her retire though it is only a year away from sochi in 2013. Will Ashley Wagner win gold or make the podium. Can Alyssa come back from surgery or is this the end. Is Rachell Flatt who skates so flat - finally flatly admits she is finished? Will Canada earn two spots in ladies and the Us thee spots in ladies. Can Johnny Weir and Lycacek make come backs. Which Japanese male will be the OGM favourite. Can Patrick Chan get it together and show some growth in his skating? Will one of the pairs declare themselves the favourite? Will T and T have the sophmore or bronze blues? Will Pand B start slipping down the ranks as Weaver and Poje, C and L, I and K and a revived B and S all look poised to bring down the French who may not want to leave the party but look like they have a target on their nose or ah backs. Will one of the Czech boys finally podium. It will be interesting that's for sure.

 

[DianaSelene]

In my opinion, Makarova--especially if she brings programs like that LP she had last year.

Yeah, it would be very beneficial to skate after Makarova. What is funny is that Makarova skated last at this year's worlds. No one came after her.