2015 NHK Ladies Short Program

[qwertyskates]

The rules she was counted on were not the rules she ended to be judged by. It is like if runners would have to run the long distance marathon but on the less than a half point would be stopped and wherever they would end up would count as the final result. Would you then say that "it is her/his performance that cost her/him a spot?"

:agree:

It's a moot argument, but nonetheless should be considered.

The marathon analogy is spot on. Anyone can have a poor start, but it is always the finish that really counts. Skaters are meant to be judged based on a short and a long, which taxes stamina, complexity of delivery, it's a long slog of a competition. Various skaters have different strengths, and many count on their long to truly shine as their competitors wilt under the demands of the FS. To stop the marathon and award the winners 1/3 of the way is blatantly unfair.

 

[Globetrotter]

Satoko was always underscore on PCS. The only thing holding her back is the big jumps, bc other than that she pretty much hit everything.

It has always been my sore point too. With the sort of mediocre SS that Wagner has, I wonder how anyone can score her 8s when Satoko has some of the better edge and blade work n edge control among the ladies. Satoko should be getting low 8s in SS and high 7s in TR. Wagner should get only low 7s for both. I won't argue on PE, IN and CH as these are subjective.

That said, I think Satoko should get neg GOEs on the jumps as they look borderline but better GOEs on steps and spins. So overall, the scores does balance out. But it just bothers me that PCS is not really scored accurately by showing the differences among the 5 components. Instead they are scored fairly even across when it actually is not true. It's not just Satoko n ladies but also the men. E.g Javi should rightly get near perfect 10s for the subjective components but only low 7s for SS while PChan should get high 9s for SS and TR but just mid 8s for PE. Reality is the scores just even out across which is baffling.

 

[russell30]

Loved Mirai today, should have been 3rd, maybe Ashley 1st (presentation was excellent) and Satoko 2nd, Mao was off but still loved her program would have placed her 4th and Leonova 5th, loved her presentation also. Loved Kaetlyn to begin with - hope she comes back strong in the free, feel sorry for Anna - I reckon she will do well in the free though and pull up a few places.

 

[chuckm]

Mirai delivered, too. She was underscored on PCS.

Mirai was expressionless for the first 2/3 of a program that had some pretty emotional lyrics. She only began to smile towards the end. That seeming lack of connection to her music has been holding her PCS scores down for years.

 

[randomfan]

Talk about a disastrous splatfest...I don't think it was possible for anyone to predict even close to something like this...

1. Satoko - She is so consistent! I have to say that I am really close to being a full fan of hers. Still, the tiny jumps are distracting, and I was shocked by that TES score. The 3Lz-3T getting ratified was a bit surprising. But I've thought of two reasons for this: 1) She lives in the hosting country... or 2) The judges were desperate to score someone highly after Mao, Ashley, Alena, and Anna all skated poorly so they decided to be a little generous. Anyways, I'm happy for Satoko and I hope she does good enough tomorrow to get into the GPF!
2. Courtney - After COC, I had a feeling that she was going to deliver nicely here. Other than the wonky combo and the wonky spins, everything else was very well done. The program is not one that I like, but it does seem to be working for her. I wonder how she'll do in the FS.
3. Ashley - Okay, so regarding her PCS: I was simply surprised. I knew that nobody had ever beat Mao in PCS in Japan at least after 2010 (unless they were Japanese themselves for some cases or if the person was Carolina Kostner) and rightfully so. So although I knew that Ashley was going to get a higher score than Mao overall, I thought that Mao would have at least a small edge in PCS. So it was totally unexpected. But I never understood why people were not appreciating Ashley's artistry. She needs work on SS and TR, but she does the other three very well. I do think she and Mao should have been much more closer (like 0.30 apart?). As for the TES, it's not surprising since she did not do too well.
4. Mao - Other than 2012, Mao usually performs fairly well at NHK, so seeing her popping the lutz and falling on the axel was saddening to me. I felt really bad for her. And getting only the 2nd highest PCS here by nearly a one-point margin tells everyone that for sure she was very off here. She won't be skating last or second-last tomorrow which would feel a bit unfamiliar for a GP event (for her, at least). I hope she skates well tomorrow. You can do it, Mao! I'll be cheering! :hap57:
5. Mirai - I do think Mirai was underscored. I guess it was because the judges were not used to her skating so well in the SP. But the GOE they gave her for most of the elements were still unacceptable - too low. And the PCS...it should have been higher as well. If Mirai delivers and rotates her jumps tomorrow, she may have a shot at the podium, of course only if someone else messes up badly.
6. Zijun - Lovely skating by her! I love the choreography of this "Clair de Lune" SP and I think it works well for her. But now the real test is coming. She's been struggling a lot with stamina lately. I hope she skates well tomorrow too!
7. Alena - It was absolutely devastating to see that hard fall. This "Charlie Chaplin" program was one of my favourites last year and it was so good seeing her sell that first half. We all know that Alena unfortunately is not a FS skater, but even so there may be chance that she will prove us wrong tomorrow.
11. Anna - :sad21: That was...devastating. The Eurosport stream I was using was lagging and making the screen extremely glitchy during her skate, but I was still able to see the figures. And I don't want to watch all that again because I think I'm going to cry. It was so heartwarming to see the audience and even her coach comforting her. But now, since we know that her chance to go the GPF just got even worse, I think if she skates pressure-free then she can move up. I won't be able to watch the first group tomorrow, but I'll be cheering for Anna!

I wish for redemption for most of the skaters. And for the skaters who have already done well, I hope that they deliver well in the FS too.

 

[mrrice]

Mirai was expressionless for the first 2/3 of a program that had some pretty emotional lyrics. She only began to smile towards the end. That seeming lack of connection to her music has been holding her PCS scores down for years.

Those are almost they exact words the BESP guys used when they were talking about Gracie. They said she didn't come alive before the tech content was completed. It didn't hurt Gracie.

 

[Sam-Skwantch]

If you're going to crash and burn.....do it in Japan. Big love for the crowd that started clapping and trying to help Anna thru her difficult moment today. Japanese crowd once again getting it done

 

[chuckm]

Those are almost they exact words the BESP guys used when they were talking about Gracie. They said she didn't come alive before the tech content was completed. It didn't hurt Gracie.

Gracie is a strong technical skater who's finished top 6 or better at Worlds (and 4th at the 2014 Olympics) for the past 3 years. Her speed, huge jumps and reliable 3z+3t have kept her high in the ratings. Her PCS scores are consistently in the 8s.

Mirai OTOH has been inconsistent in performance. She is constantly gigged for URs and rarely gets credit for her attempted 3/3s. She recently won a B event, Ice Challenge, and logged 5 URs in the freeskate; her PCS scores there were 7.10 6.70 6.95 6.90 7.00.

 

[mrrice]

Gracie is a strong technical skater who's finished top 6 or better at Worlds (and 4th at the 2014 Olympics) for the past 3 years. Her speed, huge jumps and reliable 3z+3t have kept her high in the ratings. Her PCS scores are consistently in the 8s.

Mirai OTOH has been inconsistent in performance. She is constantly gigged for URs and rarely gets credit for her attempted 3/3s. She recently won a B event, Ice Challenge, and logged 5 URs in the freeskate; her PCS scores there were 7.10 6.70 6.95 6.90 7.00.

What's your point??


Just kidding....

 

[largeman]

like tell me a skater who jumps a loop or salchow with the blade leaving exactly backward or an axel jump leaving exactly forward. And PLEASE also show me a skater who actually rotates THREE FULL rotations in air for a triple jump.

Lutz
Flip
Loop
Salchow

Your welcome.

P.S. Correct, deep, clear edges on lutz and flip, which is pretty rare for women skaters.

Great that you picked Carolina to demonstrate, because she is the epitome of beautiful and correct jumps and no one can fault her technique. Now if you actually watched these clips that you presented, you will see that her Loop and Salchow took off facing forward, and had exactly 2 1/2 rotations in the air. The Lutz and Flip were exemplary and had something like a ~45 degree pre-rotation so not three full rotations in the air either.

 

[mrrice]

She was not aware of what that performance would cost her, and that what makes the whole difference. Then, you cannot blame her performance on it. The rules she was counted on were not the rules she ended to be judged by. It is like if runners would have to run the long distance marathon but on the less than a half point would be stopped and wherever they would end up would count as the final result. Would you then say that "it is her/his performance that cost her/him a spot?"

This is 100% correct and it happens in Track all the time. 100 meter runners rarely run their fastest during the preliminary heats and usually just do enough to get them into the final. Regardless of what happens in the SP ALL the skaters know that with this scoring system, you can go from worst to first in a single event and we've seen it happen more than once.

 

[yyyskate]

@paperheart to answer your question. Currently the lady skater who is doing a lay-back inna bauer straight into 2A is Zijun and Tessa Hong(junior debut this year) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9k_N8exPNCI Kaetlyn is doing a spread eagle + 2A this season.
soyoun did inna bauer + 2A last season, not any more, Radio did spread eagle + 2A 2 seasons before, not any more. Yuzuru did spread eagle + 3A in his chopin program at certain outings.
just like you, this move holds a very special place in my heart, I love every skater who does it:luv17::

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

If you're going to crash and burn.....do it in Japan. Big love for the crowd that started clapping and trying to help Anna thru her difficult moment today. Japanese crowd once again getting it done

I felt so bad for her. I haven't seen anyone fall that hard since Maria B.

 

[jenaj]

When it comes to Mirai, the ignore list rules!

 

[Mathman]

This is 100% correct and it happens in Track all the time. 100 meter runners rarely run their fastest during the preliminary heats and usually just do enough to get them into the final. Regardless of what happens in the SP ALL the skaters know that with this scoring system, you can go from worst to first in a single event and we've seen it happen more than once.

But we have seen the opposite happen many times, too. A skater gets such a big lead in the short program that he still wins even if he falls to second or third in the LP.

 

[mrrice]

OMG don't talk about it....I fortunately, have never seen Maria fall in person. Though I still think the most jarring fall was during the 1998 Worlds LP during her footwork at the end of her program. I still think Jennifer Robinson's fall during her 2001 SP was the most shocking fall I've ever seen. It was loud and you could see her put her hands down to break her fall but it didn't help. I was surprised she got up as quickly as she did because it was scary in person.

I remember Elvis falling during his SP and it was surprise but it wasn't shocking and it certainly wasn't loud in the arena. The gasp from the audience was much louder than his fall. Thank God for Jamie and David......They were great.

 

[slider11]

I think Mirai could benefit from some acting classes or something that would help her facially relate to the music. Her movements- arms, feet, body, are beautiful-but her face is either fixed at a "don't bother me, I'm trying to land a jump" expression or she all of a sudden remembers she's suppose to smile and flashes this out of the blue smile. Either way it does not add to her artistry and sometimes detracts. If she did have past dancing or gymnastic experience she needs to put that to task during her step sequence and really hit the music beat with her moves and use some facial expression. I am really hoping for a good showing for Mirai in the Long.

 

[mrrice]

But we have seen the opposite happen many times, too. A skater gets such a big lead in the short program that he still wins even if he falls to second or third in the LP.

True....I guess the biggest difference is there are points available to a skater during the long program. Look how far Gracie moved at Worlds last year. Wasn't she in like 7th or 8th place after the short? I don't remember.

 

[hippomoomin]

Thank you for the thorough analysis.

if you watch Satoko's lutz slow-mo in this event. her take-off edge, rolls from left outside toe-pick to palm of foot(front middle section of blade) and then pivot on that and then roll onto the heel of blade and then leave the ice. She pre-rotated almost a whole turn on ice for a lutz jump.
Which is totally NOT the correct take-off technique for lutz jumps. Please check out any skater that has a true lutz jumps, the take-off edge should be a pure out-side edge, when take-off toe-pick leaves the ice, it should be scraping the ice. there is no rolling on the whole blade moment of take-off foot at all.
Because of Satoko's horrible take-off technique, she does not have the mechanics thus cannot get effective lift in her jumps, that explains her tiniest jumps among all lady skaters.
This type of technique is rewarded as a correct 3lutz is not fair to other skaters. ISU should study the case of Satoko's tiny jumps and decide is that okay and how to compare it to other skaters fairly. If you punish wrong edge take-off, under-rotation, you should also think about how to deal with Satoko's take-off issues.

 

[Blades of Passion]

I'm actually happy for Mao since the combo was credited! Now onto that Lutz.