2016 US Nationals Senior Ladies SP

[mrrice]

There's no maybe about it, if both ladies go 100% clean, Mao will beat Gracie hands down. But clean Gracie trumps clean Ashley.

How did Mao skate at Nationals? I still can't believe she didn't win. I think a 100% clean Mao would win Worlds, wouldn't she? I don't know, My prediction is that barring a meltdown, Medvedeva is going to win this year.

 

[Icey]

Why this imo overestimation of Gracie? She's good no doubt, but only a few skaters IN THE WORLD who can beat her if she is clean?????? That's problematic in that she is seldom clean, but even if she were, others would come out on top if they're clean too. IMHO her window of opportunity has probably passed her by. It happens, even to the best of them.

 

[Franklin99]

How did Mao skate at Nationals? I still can't believe she didn't win. I think a 100% clean Mao would win Worlds, wouldn't she? I don't know, My prediction is that barring a meltdown, Medvedeva is going to win this year.

During Nationals, Mao changed her jump layout but still sorta bombed her SP. During her LP, she fell on her 3A and had a stepout on her 3F (couldn't add the 3Lo after the stepout), and then skated the rest of her LP flawlessly. Even her 3Lz was ratified.

She's the only one who can beat Medvedeva if both are at 100% (maybe a clean Gracie might get ahead of Evgenia too). So if she doesn't bring it, Medvedeva will take the crown.

 

[mrrice]

During Nationals, Mao changed her jump layout but still sorta bombed her SP. During her LP, she fell on her 3A and had a stepout on her 3F (couldn't add the 3Lo after the stepout), and then skated the rest of her LP flawlessly. Even her 3Lz was ratified.

She's the only one who can beat Medvedeva if both are at 100% (maybe a clean Gracie might get ahead of Evgenia too). So if she doesn't bring it, Medvedeva will take the crown.

IMO, Med has a fire about her that tells me that she's a very hungry competitor. You can see it in her eyes. Gracie is getting it back but, it was not there last season. I think having Carly around is going to help Gracie at Nationals. I know it always helped me when my Family would come and watch me perform.

 

[TwinnerA]

:hopelessness:

Gracie skating almost last AND after Ashley? I already feel like crying. On one hand, if Ashley bombs, it might make her nervous, but on the other hand, if Ashley skates lights-out...eek. This is really not what I wanted to hear after the heartbreak of Vivian not skating well.

Or maybe this will be the time that Gracie shakes off nerves, Ashley (if she skates well), the crowd, applause, everything, and hits that flip and skates lights out!!!!!

 

[gkelly]

It happens not infrequently.

Max Aaron had it happen the year he won nationals

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVm1sNlgMQo

I know i have seen one with Kevin Reynolds as well.

Marah Bell had a horrid one this year too. She started her program, her music started skipping, the ref stopped it, she skated to the ref, then had to skate across the rink to get an alternative CD from Kori, skate that back to the ref, then immediately go start over. Sadly she did not do well after. That is too much of a surge of the wrong type of adrenaline... they really should give a little bit of a catch your breath reset time for stuff like that.

These kinds of music problems are even more common at club competitions, because the sound systems in local rinks can be less reliable. Skaters who have gotten as far as senior nationals have surely witnessed this type of problem and may well have had it happen to them before at least once.

But yes, it could throw off their rhythm.

Now that we have Start Orders, does anybody know where the Warm-ups are going to be positioned?

Given that there are 22 entries, we could have:

3 groups of 4 skaters, and 2 groups of 5 skaters
2 groups of 5 skaters, and 2 groups of 6 skaters

The latter. Always the fewest number of groups/largest groups possible according to the rules for that discipline. If there were 22 dance teams, where a maximum of 5 teams per warmup are allowed, then your first example would be apply.

(If there were 22 pairs, with only 4 teams per warmup allowed, then the breakdown would be 3-3-4-4-4-4 in six groups.)

 

[Skater Boy]

I have a feeling that we will see some crazy scoring this year. If Ashley goes "clean" (no major issue on her jumping passed), she will score 77-78+. Same for Gold even if I think they would put her slightly behind Wagner if both skate clean.
Regarding the next flight and after taking consideration the starting order, I think the results will be (also based on cleanish performances:
3.Edmunds 70+
4.Hicks 68+ (probably would have tied Edmunds if skating in the last group)
5.Wang (the surprise of the night with a stellar Rippon Loop and 3Z/3T. 67+
6.This is where I am thorn..I think Mirai will put up great SP but get dinged on the 3T in the combo still scoring 64-65. Also think Chen will get dinged on her 3T in her combo so virtually a tie for that 6th place.

Even the practice reports are super exciting!

I expect the scoring to be very generous - it is US nationals and we are the most generous of any country probably - we give give give lol. We have an exciting competition where the battle for gold with Gold and Wagner giving us great expectations - I have no idea who will win though I anticipate if both are clean it will be Gold for Gold (Gracie not Carly). The battle for bronze - oh the pressure with Polina and all

 

[Skater Boy]

SP start order has been posted:
http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2016/18516/CAT017SEG033.html

1 Avery Kurtz, Broadmoor SC
2 Carly Gold, All Year FSC
3 Maria Yang, Peninsula SC
4 Christina Cleveland, Strongsville SC
5 Mariah Bell, Rocky Mountain FSC
6 Courtney Hicks, All Year FSC
7 Heidi Munger, SC of Boston
8 Franchesca Chiera, Panthers FSC
9 Alexis Gagnon, Coyotes SC of Arizona
10 Mirai Nagasu, Pasadena FSC
11 Karen Chen, Peninsula SC
12 Alexie Mieskoski, Columbus FSC
13 Tyler Pierce, All Year FSC
14 Bradie Tennell, Wagon Wheel FSC
15 Ashley Cain, SC of New York
16 Elena Pulkinen, Coyotes SC of Arizona
17 Angela Wang, Salt Lake Figure Skating
18 Polina Edmunds, Peninsula SC
19 Katie McBeath, Westminster FSC of Erie
20 Ashley Wagner, SC of Wilmington
21 Gracie Gold, Wagon Wheel FSC
22 Hannah Miller, Lansing SC

Hmm this gives Gracie plenty of time to watch and cheer on her sister and prepare for herself if she so chooses.

 

[mrrice]

I'm sure these skaters have all experienced a problem with their music. Especially in practice. I have done it several times. I'll put the wrong dancer's music in the player and they are trained to calmly approach the judges and tell them this is the wrong music. It's not as jarring as some people might think. I think the reaction of the audience is a bigger deal than the music itself.

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

The latter. Always the fewest number of groups/largest groups possible according to the rules for that discipline. If there were 22 dance teams, where a maximum of 5 teams per warmup are allowed, then your first example would be apply.

(If there were 22 pairs, with only 4 teams per warmup allowed, then the breakdown would be 3-3-4-4-4-4 in six groups.)

Thank you as always, gkelly!!!

(I am never going to stop being in awe of your knowledge of the rules of this sport! )

Incidentally, in cases like this when there are different sizes of groups, are there any rules on what order they come in?

In the Pairs example you used, all the smaller groups are at the start, while the bigger groups are at the end. But, is it possible to have them in a differnt order like, say, the smaller ones at the end, or having them all mixed up.

Oh, wouldn't everything have been a lot simpler if there had been 24 slots instead of 22...

CaroLiza_fan

 

[TwinnerA]

This may be a stupid question and I should probably know the answer since I have been watching figure skating since Peggy Fleming won the Olympics, but I can't remember if all the skaters at Nationals advance after the short program or is there a cutoff like there is at Worlds? Wouldn't the long programs take forever if all 22 ladies skate?

 

[begin]

This may be a stupid question and I should probably know the answer since I have been watching figure skating since Peggy Fleming won the Olympics, but I can't remember if all the skaters at Nationals advance after the short program or is there a cutoff like there is at Worlds? Wouldn't the long programs take forever if all 22 ladies skate?

Everyone qualifies for the freeskate at nationals.

 

[mrrice]

This may be a stupid question and I should probably know the answer since I have been watching figure skating since Peggy Fleming won the Olympics, but I can't remember if all the skaters at Nationals advance after the short program or is there a cutoff like there is at Worlds? Wouldn't the long programs take forever if all 22 ladies skate?

Actually, I think they all skate but, they only show the top 12 on TV. I'm not sure if they show the top 12 in every discipline but, I remember watching Jason Brown when he didn't even have a triple axel so, he couldn't have been in the top 6.

 

[skfan]

Does anyone have something like a projected start time for each skater? Or at least each warm up group? I seem to recall that for the Grand Prix events they usually have a PDF for when each skater is expected to skate. Thanks in advance for any info

 

[gkelly]

Incidentally, in cases like this when there are different sizes of groups, are there any rules on what order they come in?

In the Pairs example you used, all the smaller groups are at the start, while the bigger groups are at the end. But, is it possible to have them in a differnt order like, say, the smaller ones at the end, or having them all mixed up.

It's always the largest groups last.

See rule 2714 in the USFSA rulebook

Of course, if there are withdrawals after the draw you could end up with fewer skaters in a later group.

For senior events at US Nationals only there are a couple of exceptions: see rule 2721 and 2735B ("TV Rule") to get favorites later in the draw at the request of the TV network.

This may be a stupid question and I should probably know the answer since I have been watching figure skating since Peggy Fleming won the Olympics, but I can't remember if all the skaters at Nationals advance after the short program or is there a cutoff like there is at Worlds? Wouldn't the long programs take forever if all 22 ladies skate?

The cutoff at Worlds and other ISU championships is 24 for the freeskate, so there wouldn't be a cutoff after the short program if there were only 22.

22 freeskates takes about 3 1/2 hours.

The senior singles fields are usually in the low 20s, sometimes high teens with withdrawals:

12 qualifiers from sectionals (top 4 from each of 3 sections)
top 5 finishers from the previous year's Nationals
other skaters who qualified for the JGPF or had an international assignment during or a week before or after sectionals
reigning world or Olympic medalists

I don't know that there have ever been as many as 25 entries at Nationals.

At the lower levels there are almost always 12. Juniors sometimes have skaters with JGP byes.


Currently the ISU limits the number entries at their championships to about 30-something by requiring a minimum qualifying score that can be adjusted during the season if it seems too many or too few skaters are going to qualify.

Previously, starting in 1993 (after the breakup of the USSR), there were qualifying rounds at Worlds and there was a cut then so that only 30 skaters advanced to the short program.

Earlier than that, sometimes there was a cut after school figures and I read somewhere that at some point there were qualifying rounds with freeskating so the best freeskaters wouldn't get cut -- but I'm not sure if that was international or at US regionals.

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

It's always the largest groups last.

See rule 2714 in the USFSA rulebook

Of course, if there are withdrawals after the draw you could end up with fewer skaters in a later group.

For senior events at US Nationals only there are a couple of exceptions: see rule 2721 and 2735B ("TV Rule") to get favorites later in the draw at the request of the TV network.



The cutoff at Worlds and other ISU championships is 24 for the freeskate, so there wouldn't be a cutoff after the short program if there were only 22.

22 freeskates takes about 3 1/2 hours.

The senior singles fields are usually in the low 20s, sometimes high teens with withdrawals:

12 qualifiers from sectionals (top 4 from each of 3 sections)
top 5 finishers from the previous year's Nationals
other skaters who qualified for the JGPF or had an international assignment during or a week before or after sectionals
reigning world or Olympic medalists

I don't know that there have ever been as many as 25 entries at Nationals.

At the lower levels there are almost always 12. Juniors sometimes have skaters with JGP byes.


Currently the ISU limits the number entries at their championships to about 30-something by requiring a minimum qualifying score that can be adjusted during the season if it seems too many or too few skaters are going to qualify.

Previously, starting in 1993 (after the breakup of the USSR), there were qualifying rounds at Worlds and there was a cut then so that only 30 skaters advanced to the short program.

Earlier than that, sometimes there was a cut after school figures and I read somewhere that at some point there were qualifying rounds with freeskating so the best freeskaters wouldn't get cut -- but I'm not sure if that was international or at US regionals.

Thank you for the confirmation!!!!

I'll post the tables in the Original Post of the Predictions Thread now.

And thank you to TwinnerA for asking their question. Because I found the answer very interesting!

CaroLiza_fan

 

[ruffledgrouse]

Ugh, this music. DJ Romeo lives up to his name because his choices are tragic

Edit: oops wrong thread

 

[wagnerfan]

Will there be a free live steam for the SP tonight?

 

[ice coverage]

@icenetwork

Bonus video! We'll be streaming the ladies short program warm-up today from 6:20-8 pm ET for FREE on the "backstage" stream. #USChamps16
2:02 PM - 21 Jan 2016
https://twitter.com/icenetwork/status/690293504325484544​

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And for anyone who cares about the IN "ICE Desk" shows, a reminder of tonight's schedule for those:

(All times are Eastern. Schedule is subject to change.)

Thursday, Jan. 21
• Prior to the ladies short program at approximately 8:45 p.m.
• Following the ladies short program at approximately 11:55 p.m.​

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ETA, press conferences also have been added to IN's schedule:

Press Conference Schedule

(All times are Eastern. Schedule is subject to change.)

Thursday, Jan. 21
...
• Senior ladies short program at approximately 12 a.m. (Friday, Jan. 22)​

 

[invisiblespiral]

Well, yay for video!