Yes, I realise what you are saying, but my point is that Russia may not want to risk so many skaters having only one event, so they may decide mot to submit some names. E.g. if they decide that Leonova (if she wants to continue) will have only challengers events, there is nothing she can do about it, even if she is in top 24 in world standings. Then they can decide who else is weakest from the group, maybe Konstantinova and Samodurova, or Tuktamysheva if she has again bad season, and just not submit their names. If they submit 8-9 names, the chance is that all of them will end up with two assignments.
2017-18 State of Russian Ladies skating
- Thread starter moriel
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Yes, I realise what you are saying, but my point is that Russia may not want to risk so many skaters having only one event, so they may decide mot to submit some names. E.g. if they decide that Leonova (if she wants to continue) will have only challengers events, there is nothing she can do about it, even if she is in top 24 in world standings. Then they can decide who else is weakest from the group, maybe Konstantinova and Samodurova, or Tuktamysheva if she has again bad season, and just not submit their names. If they submit 8-9 names, the chance is that all of them will end up with two assignments.
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- Aug 25, 2017
Yes, I doubt that they will submit Leonova, Tuktamysheva, Pogorilaya, or Samodurova. Samodurova doesn't do a 3-3 in the FS and that will hold her back so the fed wouldn't be so inclined to send her. I think the host spot will go to Konstantinova but that she won't get another GP, leaving Medvedeva, Zagitova, Radionova, Tsurskaya, Sotskova, and Panenkova for a total of 6 skaters. Now 2 GPs each is 12 so then the fed might go back and start adding others, like one more for Stasya (13 now) Sima (15 now) and maybe one for Valeriia depending on how she skates. That's what makes the most sense to me at least.
I think Pogorilaya still has a chance because she messed up only two competitions, whereas on all others she consistently scored pretty high. Having one bad day is not the same like regularly scoring under 190.
I don’t think they will give Serafima a chance (or only a home spot) because they will probably her to prove herself first at challenger events. I would love to see her there, but I am not very optimistic. Same with Mikhailova.
I am also not sure whether they will allow Panenkova or Samodurova to move up. It is Panenkova’s first junior season, so unless she wins the junior worlds, they may not allow her to move up. Samodurova has her second junior season, but if they didn’t allow Sakhanovich move up with silver from junior worlds, and Sotskova with also silver from junior worlds, and last season Konstantinova...
I don’t think they will give Serafima a chance (or only a home spot) because they will probably her to prove herself first at challenger events. I would love to see her there, but I am not very optimistic. Same with Mikhailova.
I am also not sure whether they will allow Panenkova or Samodurova to move up. It is Panenkova’s first junior season, so unless she wins the junior worlds, they may not allow her to move up. Samodurova has her second junior season, but if they didn’t allow Sakhanovich move up with silver from junior worlds, and Sotskova with also silver from junior worlds, and last season Konstantinova...
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- Mar 16, 2017
does Panenkova and Samodurova will move up next season? also if Samodurova does well in GPF/junior worlds (if she get sent) i think even without 3-3 in FP she will get GP if she move up. Zagi, Med, Sotskova, Radio, and maybe Tsurskaya will get 2 assignment, which leave only few spots for other skaters.
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- Aug 25, 2017
Well it's the Fed's fault that it's Dasha's first junior season. She should have been given a JGP assignment in the fall of 2016 because her elder-age nationals results merited it. Mitrofanova was given assignments despite placing not one but four places below Dasha. So they should hopefully let her move up if she proves herself for the rest of the season, which I think that she will.
Pogorilaya is still injured and she needs to get healthy. She withdrew from SkAm the Dumpster Fire and will probably withdraw from Nats if she isn't back by then. That means no more season for her and a SB of 156. Hanna Harrell at the JGP placed 7th with only four points below Pogorilaya. Her one season of 2016-2017 was really her only consistent season. With more and more skaters coming up I don't think the Fed will continue to support her.
I'm not sure they'll let Samodurova move up. There's no way to be a successful senior skater without a 3-3 in the free skate, and certainly that will not help her at nats and at jr. nats. If she's not on the junior world team, which I doubt she will be, there's no way that they'll let her move up, in my opinion.
I don’t think the federation will agree with you that it is their fault that Panenkova is on JGP only first season. She wasn’t scoring as high as the others the previous season. She was good, but there were better skaters. And wanting to keep her in juniors for second season would not be a punishment, but a chance to get more ranking points. One earns more on winning to JGP than finishing perhaps 5th at the only senior GP she would get. Nevertheless, she could do senior challengers while staying junior for JGP events.
Pogorilaya is injured now, but she probably won’t be injured in September next year. She has ten months to heal. I wouldn’t be surprised if she gets the benefit od doubt and they give her another chance. Until last season’s worlds she was pretty consistent, so it is too early to give up on her.
I don’t think anyone will be bothered that Samodurova doesn’t have triple-triple in her FS. The thing is, she is doing full amount of triples that is allowed, so it doesn’t affect her points. No lady can squeeze more than seven triples into her FS (unless she has a triple axel), and Samodurova does seven triples. Point-wise it doesn’t matter whether you do for example double axel-triple toe and solo jump triple flip, or if you do triple flip-triple toe and solo jump double axel. So this will not go against her. Saying that, they may not let her move up because it will be already Konstantinova and Feditchkina moving up, and they will probably try to limit the rest of the eligible ladies moving up.
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- Aug 25, 2017
Okay I get you for Samodurova and somewhat for Pogorilaya (although I think the Fed never really liked her much so they might not want to give her the benefit of the doubt)
But there's really no room for Panenkova in the JGP next year unless some of this year's 12-year-olds don't get assignments next year after all. There's seven events, so seven skaters to get two events, or six skaters to get two events and two for one each, a lesson I think they'll learn after this year. There is: 1. Alena Kostornaya 2. Alexandra Trusova 3. Anastasia Tarakanova 4. Anna Shcherbakova (?) 5. Ksenia Sinitsyna 6. Anastasia Gulyakova (she will also be senior eligible next season but I think Daria has a better chance) then possibly 7. Daria
Or it could be Daria as a senior and the first six ladies and then two of Anastasia Gubanova, Elizaveta Nugumanova, Viktoria Vasilieva, or Anna Tarusina to each receive one spot.
Daria is currently 20th in the Season's Best, at this late stage of the season as far as qualifying scores count - there's only the Golden Spin and Championships left, and once you reach these you tend to find the competitors are either already well embedded in the top 24, or don't really have any chance of beating her score of 196 (it's 5 points higher than that that was necessary last year to be in the top 24). Hence it's very likely she will be guaranteed 1 spot, and in practice 2 because of the number of spots to fill. Hence if the Federation decides she's ready, she's likely to be one of 7 with 2 spots i.e. Medvedeva, Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Sotskova, Radionova, Tuktamysheva and her, assuming no retirements i.e. 14 spots total.
Sofia though is 24th and so unless she can up her SB at the JGPF or possibly junior worlds she may well get overtaken e.g. by somebody like Ashley Wagner or Karen Chen, but there's not too many other contenders outside the top 24 who can all overtake Daria, and that can skate at championships e.g. Rika Hongo or Mariah Bell at her best might be able to, but won't be able to because of the limit on the number of entries (notwithstanding 4CCs).
In summary there's likely to be 3/4 spots left, with the likes of Sofia, Stanislava and Anna fighting for them, with maybe a host pick for someone further down who the Federation feels is ready to move up to Senior GPs, rather than going on Challengers and trying to get high enough Seasons Bests for future years that way.
Sofia though is 24th and so unless she can up her SB at the JGPF or possibly junior worlds she may well get overtaken e.g. by somebody like Ashley Wagner or Karen Chen, but there's not too many other contenders outside the top 24 who can all overtake Daria, and that can skate at championships e.g. Rika Hongo or Mariah Bell at her best might be able to, but won't be able to because of the limit on the number of entries (notwithstanding 4CCs).
In summary there's likely to be 3/4 spots left, with the likes of Sofia, Stanislava and Anna fighting for them, with maybe a host pick for someone further down who the Federation feels is ready to move up to Senior GPs, rather than going on Challengers and trying to get high enough Seasons Bests for future years that way.
I don’t think Russian federation will have only seven ladies ready for JGP. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had again 9 or ten like this season, and whoever doesn’t win, doesn’t get second chance. So that would nicely add up - all those you named. Not sure if Sinitsina though. Maybe instead of her Kurakova. And not sure about Nugumanova. I think Mishin dumping her hurt her credibility with the federation. My guess would be:
Tarakanova, Trusova, Scherbakova, Kostornaya, Guliakova, Panenkova, Gubanova, Tarusina, Vasilieva, Kurakova and Samodurova (if she doesn’t move up). That leaves Nugumanova and Sinitsina out. But a lot can change in the next nine months. Some may start struggling with puberty, or get injured like Scherbakova was this season...
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Mishin dumped Liza? Where was I when this happened? I think, especially with miller's excellent research that Dasha WILL move up and Samodurova might. But yes, nine month is a lot of time.
Have Vasilieva and Kurakova been doing well this season? I haven't heard much about them.
Also: do you guys think that the Fed is willing to keep supporting Gubanova after not even medaling on the JGP?
The thing is, at the junior level it is the federation’s decision who gets the assignments. At the senior GP it is up to host federations. So one can win junior worlds like alexandrovskaya/Windsor and still end up without GP spots. I don’t expect Panenkova or Samodurova to win junior worlds, so the same could potentially happen to them. Unless they gathered enough points to be high enough in ranking, there is no point moving to seniors. Why do you think Alexandrovskaya/Windsor did again JGP when they planned to be seniors this season? Because they realised that they need to get the points somewhere, and if it wasn’t coming from senior GP, than better JGP than nothing. The skaters can do senior challenger events even when they have been doing JGP, and if they place high enough at the nationals, their federation would send them to junior worlds/Europeans/senior worlds.
Mishin didn't dump Nugumanova. She left him because he has been calling her lazy or something. That's what I remember reading.
Konstantinova just got 190 points in the most recent CS, landing just below Leonova on the SB list. She has another CS. I still dream Gubanova will make WJC team and get another chance to update her SB.
Konstantinova just got 190 points in the most recent CS, landing just below Leonova on the SB list. She has another CS. I still dream Gubanova will make WJC team and get another chance to update her SB.
I read somewhere a different version re: Mishin and Nugumanova. I read he asked her to leave because she had an attitude problem. From similar reason she wasn’t allowed to compete at the senior nationals last season, even though she qualified.
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- Feb 27, 2009
So far the situation looks like whoever is not on top 24 SB list won't get a GP assignment (with the exception of Anna with her WR), so Konstantinova and Fedichkina won't be much of a factor when they move up, they will get Challengers events and a host spot at Rostelecom if lucky. This can change for Stasya as she still has one CS event to improve her scores (unless they send her to JW again with placing her above first year juniors at JNats, I hope not), but she needs two clean or at least almost clean skates which is unlikely.
With Gubanova, Panenkova, Samodurova and maybe even Gulyakova, a lot will depend on if they make it to Junior Worlds and how they place there if they do. Gubanova needs to make it to JW AND to get top 24 SB scores there to move up as she is not age eligible yet to get her SB on Challengers events. Even if the RusFed won't stop her, I doubt she and her coach want to move up when not guaranteed any GP assignment and with a chance to get JGP. Same with Gulyakova. As for Samodurova and Panenkova, I think it's up to their coaches to decide with the federation having a word too, but I doubt they will stop either of them as both are consistent, Panenkova is Eteri's girl wich means a big scoring potential, and Samodurova is Mishin's main hope
With Gubanova, Panenkova, Samodurova and maybe even Gulyakova, a lot will depend on if they make it to Junior Worlds and how they place there if they do. Gubanova needs to make it to JW AND to get top 24 SB scores there to move up as she is not age eligible yet to get her SB on Challengers events. Even if the RusFed won't stop her, I doubt she and her coach want to move up when not guaranteed any GP assignment and with a chance to get JGP. Same with Gulyakova. As for Samodurova and Panenkova, I think it's up to their coaches to decide with the federation having a word too, but I doubt they will stop either of them as both are consistent, Panenkova is Eteri's girl wich means a big scoring potential, and Samodurova is Mishin's main hope
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- Feb 27, 2009
From what I heard, in addition to attitude problem, Nugumanova and Gumennik took lessons from some other coach (probably the one that coaches them now, but I don't know for sure) while Mishin was away, he obviously didn't like it when he found out and didn't take them to summer camp with his other skaters for disciplinary reasons which caused another conflict between coaches and parents. I'm not sure if he asked them to leave or if it was more like "listen to your coaches or leave"
Well, no matter if he asked them to leave or if they left themselves, it is clear that there was a complete coach/student relationship breakdown. if sanctions as severe as withdrawing her from nationals and not taking her to summer camp were used, the situation must have been quite serious. I think skaters are kids and do mess around occasionally like any ‘average’ kid would do, and therefore they receive some appropriate sanctions, but I have never heard of anyone not being allowed to compete at nationals as a sanction! Mishin was really sending a message by that.
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- Sep 8, 2016
Could someone please explain to me how it’s possible that Alina does a correct lutz and a correct flip?? It’s actually amazing, considering there are so few skaters that can do this.
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- Feb 4, 2017
because she is special 
there is a reason why Eteri once said "one can outjump Zagitova only if one has 3A or quad"
there is a reason why Eteri once said "one can outjump Zagitova only if one has 3A or quad"
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- Mar 15, 2014
Look at the junior ladies going to JGP Final. They all have a correct lutz and a correct flip. I think Alena got a 3Lz! once and Daria got a 3F! once and that was it. It's basic requirement in juniors these days if you want to get anywhere. Gone are the days when all three medalists at Junior Worlds blatantly flutzed or lipped (hello 2015).
Well, depends, those days arent really gone yet. Because some skaters in seniors consistently dont get called, so bad inspiration there
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