2017-18 State of Russian Ladies skating

[puremagic]

Alright, I need to take a break before that crap week will come... ️

I know you all will miss me... But hey! Here's a cool photo (right part of it). Watch this about three times everyday and everything will be fine!

See ya!

 

[hanca]

Really, hanca. Thanks for your work, I like to chat with people who can provide some information and isn't lazy to do that.

But by strong I mean Zhenya's and Alina's type: high TES, high PCS and consistency. Even after mistakes: remember Zhenya's fall at her first senior WC in the SP? And what a counter attack in the FS with a new world record! Same we saw with Alina, even after three failed SPs in a row, she always shows amazing free programs.

When Russia will get a third consistent lady with high PCS - then we'll talk.

But telling tales about Russian domination you can only when at Russian Nationals will compete six Evgenias, six Alinas and six Alenas.

Hmmm, so you count strong only ‘strong like Alina and Zhenya’? So what other country has skaters as strong as them? Maybe Canada (Osmond), and possibly Italy (Kostner) although one can argue that Kostner is nowhere near as strong technically. So yes, of course Russia has only two. A few other countries have one, Japan does not have any as strong as Alina and Zhenya.

Saying that, it doesn really matter whether Russia has two strong skaters or not. The past has shown that it is not always the strongest skater who gets the gold at Olympics, it is the one who delivers on the day. I believe Mao Asada was the strongest skater at the last Olympics, but because she made mistake in her SP, she ended up without a medal. Lipnitskaya was much stronger than Sotnikova the whole season, and yet it is Sotnikova who delivered when it counted. So it doesn't matter that Russia has only Medvedeva and Zagitova. If it is meant to be, one or both of them will have a medal. If it is not meant to be, none of them will have medal. One of them may be injured and the other can make a mistake like Mao did... I wouldn’t be surprised if the weakest Russian lady ended with a medal, whereas one of those two strong ones doesn’t.

 

[SubRosa]

Thinking ahead to next year's Grand Prix. Which senior Russian ladies do you think will stick around for next season? Who will retire? Which junior ladies will move up to senior? I am imagining next year's Grand Prix will have a full slate of three Russian ladies at each GP event (also possibly a full slate of three Japanese ladies at each). Is this likely?

 

[puremagic]

Oh, and one more thing! AlexRus just found our cutie!

Kurakova won Mordovian Ornament in Senior Ladies - http://www.fsrussia.ru/results/1718/mordovian_ornament2017/index.htm
Score 191.32 (4 points Bonus for spins), but 3 URs in FS including 3Lz+1Lo<+3F (other two URs on triples).

Here's a protocol. Not bad, considering invalid spin and three URs. If she's clean, she's 130+. With consistency and more competitions even 140 points are quite achievable. At least we know she isn't injured. And there is another reason why she doesn't compete at international events.

 

[hanca]

Thinking ahead to next year's Grand Prix. Which senior Russian ladies do you think will stick around for next season? Who will retire? Which junior ladies will move up to senior? I am imagining next year's Grand Prix will have a full slate of three Russian ladies at each GP event (also possibly a full slate of three Japanese ladies at each). Is this likely?

I guess it will depend who (if anyone) will get a gold medal at the Olympics. Even though gold medal does not automatically mean that the skater would have to retire, it seems that it is quite hard to stay motivated when the skater is getting lots of money for various appearances and shows, and that can interfere with training. If you add to it how full the Russian ladies field will be, and that the skater can’t afford to be distracted by other things if she wants to stay at the top, which means having to decline these extra opportunities... I wouldn’t blame the skater that they want to enjoy some rewards for their hard work, rather than continuing with the strict regime of elite athletes.

My guess is that Leonova and Tuktamysheva will probably retire. Leonova - because of her age, and Tuktamysheva because I don’t feel her heart is in it. If she is at this current level, if even Olympics didn’t motivate her to be in better condition this season, I am not sure if it ever comes again. But I may be wrong.

All the ithers will probably stay because they are young enough and they seem to want it.

 

[hanca]

Oh, and one more thing! AlexRus just found our cutie!



Here's a protocol. Not bad, considering invalid spin and three URs. If she's clean, she's 130+. With consistency and more competitions even 140 points are quite achievable. At least we know she isn't injured. And there is another reason why she doesn't compete at international events.

Well, actually, we don’t know that she wasn’t injured. Her last competition before the Mordovian ornament is more than a month ago, Russian cup II. Since then she hasn’t done anything, not international but not home competitions either. If you are wondering why Russian federation did not let her go compete internationally, do you believe that they also banned her from other home competitions?

ETA: actually, she didn’t do Mordovian ornament this year. The link you attached is from 2016! At the top there is 24.11.2016-26.11.2016.
So the Russian cup II is her last competition. She did only three competitions this season. I don’t think it is the federation’s fault.

 

[madison]

I guess it will depend who (if anyone) will get a gold medal at the Olympics. Even though gold medal does not automatically mean that the skater would have to retire, it seems that it is quite hard to stay motivated when the skater is getting lots of money for various appearances and shows, and that can interfere with training. If you add to it how full the Russian ladies field will be, and that the skater can’t afford to be distracted by other things if she wants to stay at the top, which means having to decline these extra opportunities... I wouldn’t blame the skater that they want to enjoy some rewards for their hard work, rather than continuing with the strict regime of elite athletes.

My guess is that Leonova and Tuktamysheva will probably retire. Leonova - because of her age, and Tuktamysheva because I don’t feel her heart is in it. If she is at this current level, if even Olympics didn’t motivate her to be in better condition this season, I am not sure if it ever comes again. But I may be wrong.

All the ithers will probably stay because they are young enough and they seem to want it.

Ohhh, if so I want Medvedeva to win the gold lol ).

 

[puremagic]

Well, actually, we don’t know that she wasn’t injured. Her last competition before the Mordovian ornament is more than a month ago, Russian cup II. Since then she hasn’t done anything, not international but not home competitions either. If you are wondering why Russian federation did not let her go compete internationally, do you believe that they also banned her from other home competitions?

Don't know about federation but she deserved to be at Rostelecom Cup, just after winning one of the Russian Cup's stages. But instead of her they put ABBA, who took only third place, and had two years ago two JGP stages. Katya had nothing.

 

[puremagic]

ETA: actually, she didn’t do Mordovian ornament this year. The link you attached is from 2016! At the top there is 24.11.2016-26.11.2016.
So the Russian cup II is her last competition. She did only three competitions this season. I don’t think it is the federation’s fault.

This is typo, I guess. Just like here. 12.06.2017 - 12.09.2017. I don't remember bonuses for the spins in the last year at Russian local events.

 

[hanca]

Don't know about federation but she deserved to be at Rostelecom Cup, just after winning one of the Russian Cup's stages. But instead of her they put ABBA, who took only third place, and had two years ago two JGP stages. Katya had nothing.

You seem to get attached to a lady, or pair, and then you completely lose any objectivity. You insist that she/they were robbed and are not willing to hear or see any other way. I disagree. I think Mikhailova deserved her spot. I really can’t see what makes Kurakova so special, but if she was that great, she would get JGP. The fact that she didn’t is not a conspiracy; she just didn’t deserve it. She is only a few months older than Gubanova. Gubanova got her JGP event. So it is not as if Kurakova was held in juniors unlike others who were allowed to move up. If Sotskova and Sakhanovich were told to stay in juniors a year longer, and the same with Feditchkina and Konstantinova, what makes Kurakova so special that she should have been allowed to move up as soon as she is eligible?

 

[hanca]

Don't know about federation but she deserved to be at Rostelecom Cup, just after winning one of the Russian Cup's stages. But instead of her they put ABBA, who took only third place, and had two years ago two JGP stages. Katya had nothing.

Katya won the Russian cup in JUNIORS. Mikhailova was third, but completed in seniors. If a skater has been competing in juniors, why she should suddenly be sent to a senior competition? Sakhanovich wasn’t allowed to move up even after earning the silver at JGPF and another silver at junior worlds, but let’s move Kurakova to seniors because she won one Russian cup! Well done to her! (But I don’t think it works like that!)

 

[puremagic]

You seem to get attached to a lady, or pair, and then you comple lose any objectivity. You insist that she/they were robbed and are not willing to hear or see any other way. I disagree. I think Mikhailova deserved her spot. I really can’t see what makes Kurakova so special, but if she was that great, she would get JGP. The fact that she didn’t is not a conspiracy; she just didn’t deserve it. She is only a few months older than Gubanova. Gubanova got her JGP event. So it is not as if Kurakova was held in juniors unlike others who were allowed to move up. If Sotskova and Sakhanovich were told to stay in juniors a year longer, and the same with Feditchkina and Konstantinova, what makes Kurakova so special that she should have been allowed to move up as soon as she is eligible?

You show good result - you should be taken. But nope, they take average skater who showed average result just a few weeks before. All skaters which you mentioned were at JGP before. ALL. And all of them were there twice, except Mikhailova. Kurakova didn't get a spot this year because of massive wave of young talents. Even Vasilieva was ahead of her in the queue for the JGP ticket.

If Scherbakova were healthy, Kostornaya also would not get a spot. And if so, Kosotrnaya doesn't deserve to be in a team, then? After her amazing skate at Open Moscow Cup? ABBA was lucky because that season had not so many talented girls as next ones.

Also, Kurakova has beautiful spins and nice skating skills. Her only one problem is her URs and not good programs.

 

[puremagic]

Katya won the Russian cup in JUNIORS. Mikhailova was third, but completed in seniors. If a skater has been competing in juniors, why she should suddenly be sent to a senior competition? Sakhanovich wasn’t allowed to move up even after earning the silver at JGPF and another silver at junior worlds, but let’s move Kurakova to seniors because she won one Russian cup! Well done to her! (But I don’t think it works like that!)

How it touches international competitions? The main points: 1) she got 130+ for the free skate and won Russian Cup even as a junior with much higher scores than ABBA as a senior; 2) she wasn't marked at JGP; 3) she is eligible for seniors

 

[Spirals for Miles]

Thinking ahead to next year's Grand Prix. Which senior Russian ladies do you think will stick around for next season? Who will retire? Which junior ladies will move up to senior? I am imagining next year's Grand Prix will have a full slate of three Russian ladies at each GP event (also possibly a full slate of three Japanese ladies at each). Is this likely?

I think that if Leonova does not retire she may be pushed aside. Same for Liza, Alisa Fedichkina, and Anna Pogorilaya.
I think that Zhenya, Alina, Lena, Polina, Sima, Masha, and Valeriia (but Lera might struggle)
I think that Daria, Sofia, Stanislava, and Anastasia Gulyakova will move up to seniors. Gubanova might but I don't think Nugumanova will.
Next year's juniors will probably be Alyona, Sasha, Nastya Tarakanova, Anna Shcherbakova, Alyona Kanysheva, Ksenia Sinitsyna, and possibly Anna Tarusina and Katia Kurakova.

 

[puremagic]

You seem to get attached to a lady, or pair, and then you completely lose any objectivity. You insist that she/they were robbed and are not willing to hear or see any other way. I disagree. I think Mikhailova deserved her spot. I really can’t see what makes Kurakova so special, but if she was that great, she would get JGP. The fact that she didn’t is not a conspiracy; she just didn’t deserve it. She is only a few months older than Gubanova. Gubanova got her JGP event. So it is not as if Kurakova was held in juniors unlike others who were allowed to move up. If Sotskova and Sakhanovich were told to stay in juniors a year longer, and the same with Feditchkina and Konstantinova, what makes Kurakova so special that she should have been allowed to move up as soon as she is eligible?

Kurakova didn't get a spot this year because of massive wave of young talents. Even Vasilieva was ahead of her in the queue for the JGP ticket.

If Scherbakova were healthy, Kostornaya also would not get a spot. And if so, Kosotrnaya doesn't deserve to be in a team, then? After her amazing skate at Open Moscow Cup? ABBA was lucky because that season had not so many talented girls as next ones.

And also Konstantinova's, Gubanova's and Fedichkina's spots were given for past merits. By the way, in the last season was similar case with Panenkova, which was winning event by event, but didn't get any JGP spots.

About my bias or whatever... Don't forget about Moscow Cup and Russian Cup stages. Remember you were blaming me that I biased to Sinitsyna, because I said she was underscored at Moscow Cup? But nope, I proved my words showing to you her PCS difference in 10 points with even better skate at Open Moscow. Same with St. Pete Overscoring Cup, etc. I was right here and there, as I always am. You might be right in the pairs, and I'm amazed at your knowledge there. But in the ladies' discipline I'm the God Lord, dear hanca. You can't deny my supremacy. So give up, until it's too late.

I will come 6th December, I guess... To cry together.

 

[hanca]

About my bias or whatever... Don't forget about Moscow Cup and Russian Cup stages. Remember you were blaming me that I biased to Sinitsyna, because I said she was underscored at Moscow Cup? But nope, I proved my words showing to you her PCS difference in 10 points with even better skate at Open Moscow. Same with St. Pete Overscoring Cup, etc. I was right here and there, as I always am. You might be right in the pairs, and I'm amazed at your knowledge there. But in the ladies' discipline I'm the God Lord, dear hanca. You can't deny my supremacy. So give up, until it's too late.

Nope, you didn’t prove anything. You seem to think that you know better than me and the federation. Did you ever consider that you may be the one who is wrong? I don’t mind being critical of the federation when I feel they deserve it, but in the cases of your favourite pair and your favourite lady I actually agree with them. You seem to blame them no matter what, even when you don’t have all available information, e.g. you claiming that they prevent Kurakova to compete internationally, which you now admitted is probably not true. So how can you believe that you are right about her deserving anything? Yes, she won first Russian cup, but in her previous competitions she seriously underperformed and her score was embarrassing. How could the federation be sure that she would skate like she did at Russian cup and not like she did one competition before?

 

[kiamma]

Really, hanca.
But by strong I mean Zhenya's and Alina's type: high TES, high PCS and consistency. Even after mistakes: remember Zhenya's fall at her first senior WC in the SP? And what a counter attack in the FS with a new world record!

Sorry to correct you, but Zhenya did not fall at Boston WC in her SP. She didn’t have a great landing edge on the flip and decided she wasn’t stable enough to attach the toe loop combo like usual. But it wasn’t a fall...

 

[kalee]

Taking stock of the state of Russian domination in ladies:
- Of the 13 ladies who have scored > 200 points this season, there are 5 Russians (1 in 3), 4 Japanese, 1 Canadian, 1 Italian, 1 American and 1 Kazakh.
- 26 ladies scored > 190 points (including the 13 above), comprising 13 Russians (1 in 2), 7 Japanese, 2 Canadians, 2 Americans, as well as Elizabet & Carolina.
- 40 ladies have scored 180+ (including the 26 above), with Russians accounting for 17 of them (still nearly 1 in 2), 11 Japanese, 7 Americans, 2 Canadians, 1 Italian, 1 Kazakh and 1 Korean.

Of all the countries, Russia is probably the only one that will have 190+ scorers this season who still can't get 2 GPs in the next. The current rising Japanese seniors from this and last season (namely Mai, Wakaba and Kaori) are doing great but this is probably as balanced as the rivalry will get...

Also, it means that virtually everyone in Russian Nats this year has scored 180+ at least once internationally in their career (the 18th lady not accounted for above being Anna)

 

[hanca]

Of all the countries, Russia is probably the only one that will have 190+ scorers this season who still can't get 2 GPs in the next. The current rising Japanese seniors from this and last season (namely Mai, Wakaba and Kaori) are doing great but this is probably as balanced as the rivalry will get...
)

We don’t know that. It depends how the Russian federation decides to play it. GP events are allocated based on the results at worlds, world ranking and season best results. Every country can have max 18 spots but as the hosting countries are the ones inviting the skaters, they don’t necessarily have to invite three Russians to their event, which means that Russian then would have less than 18 spots. In fact, it is very rare that any country ever has 18 spots because the host countries want to protect their skaters (make it easier for them to medal).

Russian federation has a way to influence if they want their skaters to have one or two events. For example, if they submit names of 15 skaters who all have good season best and high world ranking, the spots will be spread among 15 skaters and most of them will end up with only one spot and no chance to qualify to GPF. If they decide to submit only the names of the 8-9 strongest, the other federations will have to choose from those and then most of them will have two spots. It would be sad for those whose names won’t be submitted, but it would ensure that someone will get to GPF.

 

[kalee]

We don’t know that. It depends how the Russian federation decides to play it.

Russian federation has a way to influence if they want their skaters to have one or two events. For example, if they submit names of 15 skaters who all have good season best and high world ranking, the spots will be spread among 15 skaters and most of them will end up with only one spot and no chance to qualify to GPF. If they decide to submit only the names of the 8-9 strongest, the other federations will have to choose from those and then most of them will have two spots. It would be sad for those whose names won’t be submitted, but it would ensure that someone will get to GPF.

We currently know that there are 10 senior age-eligible skaters in 2018/19 season who have scored 190 points or above this season to date: Medvedeva, Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Sotskova, Radionova, Panenkova, Samodurova, Tuktamysheva, Leonova, and Konstantinova. There is also Pogorilaya who should still remain within the top 24 world standings by season's end based on her past achievements, so that is 11 skaters in total with 18 GP spots maximum (and more likely to be 16-17 spots given that some host federations will only give Russia 2 spots).

This means that it isn't possible to give all those 10 skaters two spots each -- which was my point, that there will be Russian skaters with a 190+ international SB from this season who will get one or zero GPs in the next, whereas Japan still has the ability to give all 190+ scorers two events apiece (if you add Rika Kihira to the mix after JGPF, it would still be 8 x 2 = 16 spots, but sorry Rika Hongo).
Even with retirements by Leonova (probable) and Pogo (hope not), we're still down to 9 skaters for Russia but need the max of 18 spots to give each of them 2 spots each.