2018-2019 State of Japanese Men's Skating

[dodobirdo]

Junior Men 2018-2019 season + entire post

Wow! Thank you so much for such a comprehensive and informative overview!!

With both 3A and 4T/4S necessary for competitiveness as a senior skater, it's unsurprising that most of the highlighted juniors are/have been pursuing the 3A. Do we know if/how these skaters have been progressing with 4T/4S?

Also, to echo some of OP's main questions, would you mind my asking your thoughts (+ anyone else who would like to share!) on the skaters who have recently moved up to seniors, as well as their potentials to develop into medal contenders in the next/next few season(s)? Kazuki Tomono immediately comes to mind, but there's also Sota Yamamoto, and there may be others I do not know. On the flip side, and I feel that this is less probable, are there any veteran seniors who may be poised for a breakthrough? Men's skating in Japan has been undeniably dominated by Yuzuru and Shoma for quite a few seasons now, and with all my admiration and appreciation for them both I find myself curious to see what other talents may be around or among them.

 

[yume]

Whole post

Thanks for this interesting post.
Well, the field is not really glorious. There is just one or two boys who can be in the game in JGP. Most of the boys are not consistents with the hardest jumps.
Personally my hopes are on Shun Sato and Kao Miura. Their skating and tech are already more developped than most of other boys at the same age. I don't expect them to have excellent results next season, but surely the season after.

 

[Spinning]

Keiji improves so much but I'm not sure how long he could hold out the new batches of young guns. The up and coming kids look great. It will be an exciting quad for Japanese male skating!

 

[Danny T]

I don't really follow Juniors much, so Kazuki's performance at Worlds was a fantastic surprise for me. I would think that his, Deniss' and uncle Alexei's performances were the highlights of the free event (group 4 never happened lalalala :disapp I think it is too soon to say he is consistent as a senior, but he deifnitely shows potential for it. Doing Junior Worlds and Worlds right after one another is no joke, and he went clean(!!) I like his fire on ice too, and he doesn't have any glaring technique holes that I remember at the moment, so that's great,

Keiji, oh man. I rooted for him so hard, why does he keep popping jumps I really really hope he can bounce back, and the competition for that third Japanese men's spot can motivate him. If he could pull a Machida it would be fantastic. It would be such a pity if things don't wokr out for him.

Re: Yuzu, from what he said he is definitely going to stick around for a few more seasons. He has nothing to lose now except the functional use of his legs slink so he's gonna go for that 4A. I would guess he's still going to win quite a few comps, the rule changes if applied correctly (who am I kidding :sarcasm are going to largely benefit him. GOE-wise, (with correct judging) no one is going to surpass him. Even if the stupid quad repetition ban kicks in, he has 90+% consistency on 3A, already repeats them anyway, and enough types of quads to stay competitive if the 4Lo and 4Lz ever came back from the war, even better if/when 4A makes competitive debut.

2022 is a wild card at the moment. I hope the rising JPN juniors can keep the momentum, but Shoma looks like the surest bet right now. He said he wanted to go, doesn't look like he is going to retire soon, and so far is least prone to injuries. But if he wants to have a firmer bet on Beijing he has to improve his jump technique by then. 3A is his best jump, his Sal looks ok, but his toe jumps are simply atrocious, no offense. I think he can do it, he is quite self-aware, so fingers crossed :agree: Oh, and have less two-foot skating please, his SS is good, I don't see why he skates two-footed so excessively. I'm ambivalent about Yuzuru at 2022. On one hand, it's going to be legendary. OTOH, I want him to be able to walk without painkillers after his career finishes ...

 

[bluelutz]

I just revised my junior men post with video links and more details.
So check them out if you have not yet

 

[bluelutz]

Thank you for your whole post While I'm a little bit worried of Junior field, this sounds good at the same time because every skater has still a chance to move up. I did not know the reason for Koshiro's coaching change, do you know his process of going to Lambiel? (I watch Junior's competitions sometimes but am not following info)

Lambiel taught at the National summer training camps, both junior and senior, two or three years in a row. So it is not difficult to imagine that Koshiro made a good connection with him there. Also being a very expressive skater, Koshiro must love Lambiel's style. One thing I do not know is who funded his move, maybe he got a sponsor or his family is wealthy enough.
As for Miyake, their ex-coach arranged it by calling Utako.

 

[yude]

Lambiel taught at the National summer training camps, both junior and senior, two or three years in a row. So it is not difficult imagine that Koshiro made a good connection with him there. Also being a very expressive skater, Koshiro must love Lambiel's style. One thing I do not know is who funded his move, maybe he got a sponsor or his family is wealthy enough.
As for Miyake, their ex-coach arranged it by calling Utako.

 

[bluelutz]

I have a few questions about the juniors:

1. Do we know who among the 2017-18 juniors will be definitely moving up to seniors next season? If not yet, then when are such announcements usually made? Pure speculation on my part, but it seems that if anyone's making the leap then Mitsuki Sumoto would be the most likely, followed by Sena Miyake, possibly. Are there any others who might be possible candidates?

2. Besides age limitations, what kinds of things might skaters and their teams consider when deciding whether to stay in juniors or move up to seniors? As someone with no personal experience with competitive figure skating, my first thought was the quantity of competitive opportunities. Along this vein: In the senior field of Japanese Men's skating in particular, we have Yuzuru and Shoma's 1-2 lock very probably continuing into the next season, with Keiji and Kazuki looking like the ones who will be duking it out over that 3rd spot. On the other hand, looking at Junior National results, it seems that the junior ranks are getting more and more crowded as well (I am not as familiar with the junior scene, so please do tell if this is not the case). Perhaps the chance to gain experience/exposure/world-standing-points via senior B comps (ex: CS), plus potential GP invites and even 4CC may outweigh the benefits of another year of junior B comps, JGPs, and JWC?

Anyways. Just some thoughts I had reading through this thread, and I'd love to hear any/all thoughts on this topic!

1) Unlike JGP, Skaters have to earn the spot of senior GPS on their own by meeting criteria, like winning the JGP final, getting a medal at the Junior Worlds, being on the top 24 SB list, being on the top 24 WS list or being top 12 at the Senior Worlds. Unfortunately none of Japanese junior men achieved those for 2017-2018 season.
As a matter of fact, there is still some possibility for Sumoto to get a host country spot of NHK. However, there is not easy for him to earn the following season's GPS spot without any consistent quad. So there is not much reason for the federation to push him to be a senior at this point. On the other hand, a skater has to stay on the junior ranks at least two years, but on the third year, they can turn senior if they wish to do so to compete on the senior ranks at the domestic competitions. They do not have to ask anyone for that decision.
Kazuki Kushida, who was 4th at the junior Nationals, will move up due to "Aged out."

2) Yes, Japanese junior men are crowded right now because nobody has earned the GPS spot. 2017-2018 season, only one junior man who turned senior was Kazuki, but not because of earning the GPS spot, but simply "Aged out." Skaters can stay on the junior ranks for six years, and after that they have to go to the senior ranks no matter what. But the Kazuki got a spot of NHK at the last second because of Yuzuru's injury, and the Senior Worlds spot because of Yuzuru & Mura. He has been extremely lucky. For the last few years, turning senior has become more and more difficult for junior men because the technical standard of the senior has risen so much higher. Though Kazuki did have 3A and 4S last season already, he still did not get GPS spot on his own. So you can guess how hard it is to get one now.

 

[sakurano]

Since ladies have their own thread, it's normal that men get their thread too. The field is not as deep as ladies but it have olympic gold and silver medalists and young hopes for future (As Kazuki Tomono for seniors and Shun Sato for juniors).
Honestly, JSF should thanks Yuzuru and Shoma for no retiring yet, otherwise Japan would not have any chance of medal in big international competitions.

Main questions for the next season:
Will shoma finally take the lead or Yuzuru will still the emperor?
Will Kazuki Tomono be definetely the third man?
Can Sota Yamamoto be on top again and fight for one of three spots?
Is Keiji Tanaka a lost case or can he finally have decent placements all the season?
Can Japan have another medal contender in seniors?
Who can fight for big medals next season in juniors?

Question 1:

The question is quite complicated I really like the skating of both, Yuzuru being hurt it's hard to say if he will still be there but I think he should take the lead and stay on the throne.

Question 2:

He made a remarkable 5th place in his first world I did not know him before that, I think with the withdrawal of Mura he can be a serious contender for third place.

Question 3:

He comes back little by little but I think it's too early to say if he will be the 3rd Man.

Question 4:

This question makes me sad because I love his programs and his personality unfortunately he has not had a good season, he will have to fight to return.

Question 5:

For now the only contenders for the medals are Yuzuru and Shoma (but the next generation is starting to come.

Concerning the Juniors I can not answer not knowing them very little.

 

[yume]

Kazuki got a spot of NHK at the last second because of Yuzuru's injury, and the Senior Worlds spot because of Yuzuru & Mura. He has been extremely lucky.

Exactly, really lucky. Now i guess he will get 2 GPs? Would have been difficult for him if he didn't get any major international competition this season.
Make me think that JSF has a poor promotion process for her new seniors. Why didn't he get the NHK host spot? If Yuzuru was not injured and Mura not retired i guess there would have just Yuzuru, Shoma and Keiji with GPs spots won on their own next season.

Edit: I remember peacock man was at NHK? Maybe that's him who got the host spot.

 

[blackey]

Exactly, really lucky. Now i guess he will get 2 GPs? Would have been difficult for him if he didn't get any major international competition this season.
Make me think that JSF has a poor promotion process for her new seniors. Why didn't he get the NHK host spot? If Yuzuru was not injured and Mura not retired i guess there would have just Yuzuru, Shoma and Keiji with GPs spots won on their own next season.

Edit: I remember peacock man was at NHK? Maybe that's him who got the host spot.

They gave NHK host spot to Hiroaki Sato, who seems to be the better skater at that point. Kazuki will get 2 spots next year because of his 5th finish at worlds. I won't say JSF did a poor job tho, Kazuki never impress me too much until NHK, I guess some people just took longer time to grow into shapes. I'd say to me he has better future than Keiji, he has great 3A and solid 4S, and step by step I can see him really getting somewhere.

 

[Anna K.]

The one I'm most excited about is Kazuki! Not only does he remind me of Hanyu's little bro, I see him being a podium regular and 5th at the recent worlds should give him a huge confidence boost to make a name for himself in the upcoming seasons

That's exactly what I thought: Oh, so Yuzu has a little brother?
In a way, he is even more appealing than Shome and Yuzu. I mean, the big guys are doing far more sophisticated choreography but this kid just skates with his arms extended and gets the crowd going! But to do Kazuki justice, he chose fast music and his timing was good enough to say that he was actually interpreting it (for the most part). Loved it!

 

[Skye]

There's only so much JSF can do to promote new seniors under the GP assignment rules. Kazuki aged out of juniors with only SB 51 scores, a wonky 3A and an inconsistent (and often under-rotated) 4S, and yet juniorish skating. He was not guaranteed any GP spots until Dice (who was initially assigned the host spot) pulled out of NHK Trophy due to pneumonia, and got lucky again with Yuzuru's withdraw from Worlds and Mura's retirement. Kudos for Kazuki doing so well in both events where he was a late substitute, and now that he is guaranteed 2 GP spots next season I hope he can make the most of his opportunities.

 

[yume]

I think that the other reason on why junior field is so much packed and just a few move up to seniors is because usually japanese men need a lot of time to developp (i know most of men need time). Mostly are juniors during 4-5 years and don't get solid 3A/quads before 17/18yo. There was just a few who move up to seniors internationally at 15-16-17yo with consistent 3A/quad and did well. The youngest was surely Yuzuru.

 

[cruzceleste]

What happened with Ryuju Hino? Did he retired?

 

[bluelutz]

Wow! Thank you so much for such a comprehensive and informative overview!!

With both 3A and 4T/4S necessary for competitiveness as a senior skater, it's unsurprising that most of the highlighted juniors are/have been pursuing the 3A. Do we know if/how these skaters have been progressing with 4T/4S?

Also, to echo some of OP's main questions, would you mind my asking your thoughts (+ anyone else who would like to share!) on the skaters who have recently moved up to seniors, as well as their potentials to develop into medal contenders in the next/next few season(s)? Kazuki Tomono immediately comes to mind, but there's also Sota Yamamoto, and there may be others I do not know. On the flip side, and I feel that this is less probable, are there any veteran seniors who may be poised for a breakthrough? Men's skating in Japan has been undeniably dominated by Yuzuru and Shoma for quite a few seasons now, and with all my admiration and appreciation for them both I find myself curious to see what other talents may be around or among them.

All top juniors have been practicing 3A, that's for sure. Judging with the 2017-2018 results, Sumoto and Sato got about 70-80%, Miyake and Yamakuma about 50%, Kishina about 20%, Tsuboi 0%, Shimada did not try one. According to twitter reports from the domestic competition, some lower ranking boys have tried 3A as well.
As for 4T/4S, none of them has even tried one at any competition during the 2017-2018 season though I remember that I read Shimada tried one during the previous season, but I am not sure. I assume that some of top juniors have been practicing 4T/4S because someone can get a quad before 3A like Shoma. Also I predict that Sumoto is going to be the first one among them to land 4T/4S because he already has semi-consistent 3A despite of the fact that he never tried one during the last season. The lack of height will not help him, but at least he can rotate fast.
Shimada has a very loose air position, especially his legs, which is No No to obtain big jumps though Kazuki can land 4S with the same issue.

As for the prospect for the senior men, I would like to post later because it is going to be long.

 

[bluelutz]

Personally my hopes are on Shun Sato and Kao Miura. Their skating and tech are already more developped than most of other boys at the same age. I don't expect them to have excellent results next season, but surely the season after.

Sato & Miura are ones to watch, that's for sure, but I was not impressed by Sato besides his 3A. Over all, he is still a very juniorish and unpolished skater though I admit that his ability to land 3A would give him some advantage and he is still young and got a plenty time to develop his other skills. One concern is that he does not have a very experienced coach. On the other hand, I like Miura's energy and excitement he can create on ice, and he is in good hands.

 

[bluelutz]

Exactly, really lucky. Now i guess he will get 2 GPs? Would have been difficult for him if he didn't get any major international competition this season.
Make me think that JSF has a poor promotion process for her new seniors. Why didn't he get the NHK host spot? If Yuzuru was not injured and Mura not retired i guess there would have just Yuzuru, Shoma and Keiji with GPs spots won on their own next season.

Edit: I remember peacock man was at NHK? Maybe that's him who got the host spot.

Kazuki's two spots on the next GPS were secured by being placed in top 12. So he is going to be no one's substitute for the next season, at least for GPS.
The next season, Yuzuru and Keiji get two spots because of their SB (Yuzuru also in WS top 24), and Shoma and Kazuki do the same because of their placement in the Worlds, within top 12 (Shoma also in SB and WS top 24).

I was also surprised when I heard NHK host pick was Hiroaki Sato not Kazuki. When it comes to the host pick, there is always some politics behind it. On the other hand, they picked Shiraiwa over Matusda even though Matsuda's SB was higher than Shiraiwa's. So they obviously tried to promote Shiraiwa probably because they considered her potential was higher.

 

[surimi]

What happened with Ryuju Hino? Did he retired?

I don't think so - at least I hope not b/c he's one of my favorites. He won Western sectionals in the autumn and showed off a quad combo if I'm not mistaken, then he was at Nationals, and if I recall correctly, he had the 4th best FS after Shoma, Keiji and Mura. Not a small achievement. Too bad he'd messed up the SP, I believe he was 7th overall. He went to an event in The Hague in February, and was 5th overall. He's not very consistent; but then, very few skaters are. If he continues (he might... he recently turned 23 which is not super-old), I'd like to see him reconsider his packaging b/c just like with Keiji, merry music doesn't help him much as he's no entertainer, and the deer-in-the-headlights expression he has so often, though personally I find it endearing, helps him even less in the judges' eyes IMO.

As for the prospect for the senior men, I would like to post later because it is going to be long.

Thank you! I agreed with your assessment for those I knew of. And thank you for including the high school championships link, though it pains me to see poor Sota on pewter position. With the uni coming into the equation, no wonder he seemed tired at CdP last month. I'm absorbing like a sponge the words of those who voice their hope for him.

 

[Sai Bon]

I think that the other reason on why junior field is so much packed and just a few move up to seniors is because usually japanese men need a lot of time to develop (i know most of men need time).

Yes, many Japanese men seem to be late bloomers (Machida comes to mind; and didn't it take Uno many years to master the 3A? And look where he is now!)
I'm hoping Keiji is a late bloomer too and he will come back to surprise us next season, but time is not on his side. Isn't he 23 or 24? Japanese men are under a lot of pressure at that age in terms of having to make career/education decisions.