2018 Olympic Season: Men's Figure Skating

[HanDomi]

this relates to this thread
Plushenko prediction for Olympic podium
http://www.nbcolympics.com/news/yev...ly-pyeongchang-olympic-champion?sf129560867=1

 

[rabbit1234]

I think the US (especially Zhou, Aaron and Brown) and Russian skaters need to be at their absolute best = to peak already at their Nationals. Hanyu and Shoma on the other hand will make their National podium anyway, I believe.

Fernández needs to be almost ready at the Europeans.

Japan Figure Skating Championships will be an important competition in predicting the Olympics.
That competition will be the final competition for hanyu and shoma before the Olympics.
I think that losing just before the Olympic Games is likely to change the flow, as Chan is losing to Hanyu in the 2013-2014 season GPF and the flow changed.
If Hanyu loses to shoma in the National, Hanyu will be hurt pride.
It is a competition that Hanyu wants to win absolutely.

 

[MaiKatze]

I agree. There is no telling who will peak at the right time. Impossible to say.

It makes things so exciting, though! I mean, no matter who's your favourite, it will be a competition for the ages. Hopefully no Sochi, but gosh...and to think we're almost there. The only big battle left before the Olympics is the GPF and even after that we won't know what happens. I love the unpredictability of it. *giddy*

 

[HanDomi]

actually I agree with Plushenko
Hanyu could just use 4S and 4T, score over 330 and wins this easily, but we all know he will be risking 4lz, 4lo anyway, but I definitely think he should skate 4S/4T in SP at Olympics, score 112-113 and he is well set for free

 

[Interspectator]

Japan Figure Skating Championships will be an important competition in predicting the Olympics.
That competition will be the final competition for hanyu and shoma before the Olympics.
I think that losing just before the Olympic Games is likely to change the flow, as Chan is losing to Hanyu in the 2013-2014 season GPF and the flow changed.
If Hanyu loses to shoma in the National, Hanyu will be hurt pride.
It is a competition that Hanyu wants to win absolutely.

I think a scenario of Hanyu losing to Shoma will make him more determined than ever to do better at the next competition. if Yuzu losing to Patrick and Chen and others in previous seasons is any indication of his reaction to loss. -It makes him fight even harder. A lot of skaters have won over Hanyu, it's not a rare thing. But Hanyu has never let any loss keep him down for long.
Shoma is a very strong competitior, no question about that. His scores have been the best this season so far.
Nationals will be a very intense competition for both of them, mostly because the title of Nationals is so prestigious and the media is going to hype it for all their worth. -But I hope that the competitors, Shoma and Hanyu, can have the longer vision about it and NOT peak at nationals. They want to peak at the Olympics.

The other men will NEED to peak at Nationals for a chance to go to the Olympics. Mura, Murakami, and Keiji's strategies need to be a little different.

 

[rabbit1234]

actually I agree with Plushenko
Hanyu could just use 4S and 4T, score over 330 and wins this easily, but we all know he will be risking 4lz, 4lo anyway, but I definitely think he should skate 4S/4T in SP at Olympics, score 112-113 and he is well set for free

I do not agree with Plushenko on that point.
Because if both shoma and Nathan do not mistake and SP and FP are aligned, there is a potential exceeding 330.

I think that the best layout for Hanyu,
SP　4Lo、4T-3T
FP　4Lo、4S、4S-3T、4T、4T-1Lo-3S

 

[MaiKatze]

GPF will be a real test of Shoma's mental strength, that's for sure. Hometown event in the Olympic Season. What does he have to do to finally get an NHK assignment? Winning Nationals didn't do the trick, perhaps winning the Olympics will? :dev2:

Seriously, I think that no matter who wins Japanese Nationals, no matter who wins GPF, it still won't tell us who will win the Olympics. I predict that even the short program won't tell us who wins.

 

[Jaana]

Japan Figure Skating Championships will be an important competition in predicting the Olympics.
That competition will be the final competition for hanyu and shoma before the Olympics.
I think that losing just before the Olympic Games is likely to change the flow, as Chan is losing to Hanyu in the 2013-2014 season GPF and the flow changed.
If Hanyu loses to shoma in the National, Hanyu will be hurt pride.
It is a competition that Hanyu wants to win absolutely.

Perhaps so, but it does not matter at the Olympics, the main thing is to get qualified. I´d expect Hanyu to train even harder if he is not the gold medalist at Nationals. The winner at the Nationals will have more pressure, I´d believe.

 

[rabbit1234]

Perhaps so, but it does not matter at the Olympics, the main thing is to get qualified. I´d expect Hanyu to train even harder if he is not the gold medalist at Nationals. The winner at the Nationals will have more pressure, I´d believe.

I agree with that point.
While the flow changes with victory or defeat, at the same time, if shoma wins, it will also be under pressure.
It will be interesting to see how it will affect the Olympics.

I think that the best thing for shoma is to win with either GPF or National and lose on the other side.

 

[MaiKatze]

Perhaps so, but it does not matter at the Olympics, the main thing is to get qualified. I´d expect Hanyu to train even harder if he is not the gold medalist at Nationals. The winner at the Nationals will have more pressure, I´d believe.

Can he train more though? In interviews he says, I have to train harder, I have to train more. Even when he wins. I think lack of training is never the reason, when Yuzuru has a not so good outing. There is another factor that is rarely talked about. Sheer luck. 4 years, and your moment has finally come. And then you fail on a jump you can usually jump in your sleep. The pressure is on, but if you have just simply a not so good day, or not even day, simply not a good few seconds, at that date on a random date in February, it really hurts. Perhaps you even feel perfect, in the form of your life, the stars align and for some stupid reason you pop the opening jump and then it's all downwards from there. So many factors come together. That's the magic and the tragedy of the Olympics.

 

[nekun]

GPF will be a real test of Shoma's mental strength, that's for sure. Hometown event in the Olympic Season. What does he have to do to finally get an NHK assignment? Winning Nationals didn't do the trick, perhaps winning the Olympics will? :dev2:

Seriously, I think that no matter who wins Japanese Nationals, no matter who wins GPF, it still won't tell us who will win the Olympics. I predict that even the short program won't tell us who wins.

I thought the seniority play abig part to decide who JSF choose as a host pick. As I remember Yuzuru won JNats over Takahashi, place higher above the latter both in 4CC and Worlds but still the one who got NHK in Olympic season was Takahashi.

 

[MaiKatze]

I thought the seniority play abig part to decide who JSF choose as a host pick. As I remember Yuzuru won JNats over Takahashi, place higher above the latter both in 4CC and Worlds but still the one who got NHK in Olympic season was Takahashi.

Wasn't there a year when both went to NHK? I'm okay with it at this point, I just wish that someday Shoma will go to NHK during his competitive career.

 

[nekun]

Wasn't there a year when both went to NHK? I'm okay with it at this point, I just wish that someday Shoma will go to NHK during his competitive career.

Yeah, but it was the most d*****s thing JSF ever did, just for the sake saling tickets

Don't worry, Shoma will go to NHK someday..

 

[Li'Kitsu]

I thought the seniority play abig part to decide who JSF choose as a host pick. As I remember Yuzuru won JNats over Takahashi, place higher above the latter both in 4CC and Worlds but still the one who got NHK in Olympic season was Takahashi.

I don't think it has much to do with seniority in this years case - Shoma won nationals, but in Yuzu's absence, while Yuzu placed higher at WC. So simply, Yuzu is Japanese #1, that's why he got NHK. It's really not a mystery

If I'd have to guess, I think Dai getting NHK 2013 might have also been related to how high the chances of him retiring were. Internationally, Yuzu had overtaken him and become Japanese #1, but it was also clear he would stay around after 2014. I thought it was nice to give Dai NHK again, his home town GP, in his swan song season.

 

[rabbit1234]

Relationship between Olympic gold medalist and gold medalist of GPF
1998　Ilia Kulik 　　　1997GPF GOLD
2002　Alexei Yagudin　2001GPF GOLD
2006　Evgeni Plushenko　　　
2010　Evan Lysacek　 2009GPF GOLD
2014　Yuzuru Hanyu　2013GPF　GOLD

Plushenko in 2006 did not participate in the GPF because it only participated in the GPS 1 competition.
The GPF gold medalist at that time was Lambiel.
Lambiel became a silver medalist after Plushenko at the Olympic Games.

There is a high correlation between the Olympic gold medalist and the gold medalist of the GPF.
Winning in the top competitor gathering just before the Olympics is to predict the victory at the Olympic Games.

Likewise, the winner of the top competitor just before the Olympic Games predicts the result of the Olympic Games.

Also, what kind of score was given in the Olympic season is to predict the result of the Olympic Games.

 

[MaiKatze]

Relationship between Olympic gold medalist and gold medalist of GPF
1998　Ilia Kulik 　　　1997GPF GOLD
2002　Alexei Yagudin　2001GPF GOLD
2006　Evgeni Plushenko　　　
2010　Evan Lysacek　 2009GPF GOLD
2014　Yuzuru Hanyu　2013GPF　GOLD

There is a high correlation between the Olympic gold medalist and the gold medalist of the GPF.
Winning in the top competitor gathering just before the Olympics is to predict the victory at the Olympic Games.

Likewise, the winner of the top competitor just before the Olympic Games predicts the result of the Olympic Games.

Also, what kind of score was given in the Olympic season is to predict the result of the Olympic Games.

Interesting, so the GPF does play a part. That it is in Japan slightly favours Yuzuru and Shoma. I'm curious about the scores the Judges will give at the Olympics. Olympic Inflation is always fun to look at.

 

[nekun]

Thanks God even Yuzu get NHK this year, there is a chance he may continue for another season

 

[xibsuarz]

Relationship between Olympic gold medalist and gold medalist of GPF
1998　Ilia Kulik 　　　1997GPF GOLD
2002　Alexei Yagudin　2001GPF GOLD
2006　Evgeni Plushenko　　　
2010　Evan Lysacek　 2009GPF GOLD
2014　Yuzuru Hanyu　2013GPF　GOLD

Plushenko in 2006 did not participate in the GPF because it only participated in the GPS 1 competition.
The GPF gold medalist at that time was Lambiel.
Lambiel became a silver medalist after Plushenko at the Olympic Games.

There is a high correlation between the Olympic gold medalist and the gold medalist of the GPF.
Winning in the top competitor gathering just before the Olympics is to predict the victory at the Olympic Games.

Likewise, the winner of the top competitor just before the Olympic Games predicts the result of the Olympic Games.

Also, what kind of score was given in the Olympic season is to predict the result of the Olympic Games.

Yeah there is a correlation, but can we say it implies causality? Did the GPF win give them momentum in the crowd and judges' eyes for the Olympics? Or it just happened to be that these skaters did better than the rest on both competitions?

 

[MaiKatze]

Wait, wasn't the 2013 GPF in Japan too? I see a pattern....

 

[rabbit1234]

Yeah there is a correlation, but can we say it implies causality? Did the GPF win give them momentum in the crowd and judges' eyes for the Olympics? Or it just happened to be that these skaters did better than the rest on both competitions?

In order to participate in the GPF, we need to get a good result with GPS and enter the top six competitors.
And it must be top in the top sixcomputers.
GPF's GOLD medalist is a GPF competitor who passed a lot of tests, got a good result throughout the season and stood at the top just before the Olympics.
High scores are also necessary to win with GPF.
I think that it is natural that there is a high possibility that the competitor will win in the Olympics.