2018 US Championships Sr Men FS

[draqq]

I think the USFSA should (not that they would ever do this) pull one out of the Japanese playbook and send Zhou and Rippon to 4CC, awarding the Olympic spot to the person who gets the highest total score there. Perhaps throw in Jason there too if they want.

 

[IonGrey]

I would say that the change in the Olympic selection criteria since 2014 means that I find it hard to believe that Rippon will be left off. USFS now ranks using 3 tiers. 1st tier is 2018 Nats, 2017 GPF, 2017 Worlds. 2nd tier is 2017 GP series and 2017 4CC. 3rd tier is probably not very relevant.

Just as an example lets look at the ladies, I'm going to rationalize why Wagner wasn't picked. First from Nats, we have BT 1st, MN 2nd, KC 3rd, AW 4th. Nobody qualified for GPF. In worlds, we have KC 4th, AW 7th. In 4CC, MN 3rd, KC 12th. In GP, BT and AW each placed 3rd once, MN placed 4th once, and Karen never broke top 5. BT had the highest score with 204, MN at 194, while AW and KC both have 183-184. So, obvious clear picks are MN and BT. And we notice that in both T1 comps where AW and KC participated, KC beat AW. So there was no reason to pick AW over KC.

Now let's do the same thing with men. NC obviously qualifies, so RM, VZ, and AR duke it out for the 2 spots.

From Nats: RM 2nd, VZ 3rd, AR 4th.
Only AR qualified for GPF.
Nobody went to Worlds.

Nobody went to 4CC.
RM did not participate in GP. VZ highest finish was 4th, with score 256. AR got 2nd twice with 262 and 266.

Sure AR lost to RM and VZ at nats. But AR qualified for GPF and neither of the others did, which almost negates the nats standings. And then you go to T2, and see that AR vastly, vastly outperformed VZ at GP, not to mention RM who wasn't even good enough to be assigned.

Prediction: Nathan Chen, Adam Rippon, Vincent Zhou (in that qualifying order)

 

[topaz emerald]

just watched vincent's long program https://www.goldenskate.com/forum/s...hips-Sr-Men-FS&p=1914870&posted=1#post1914870

He skated wit so much passion and heart. He deserved higher pcs than Nathan tonight by a lot. He's grown into a handsome young man, tall, lean, with a nice body line. Just too bad about some of the jumps but who cares, I enjoyed his performance so much! I really hope he makes the team.

My picks: Vincent, Nathan, Ross Miner

 

[da96103]

USFS would be a fool not to send someone with this

1 4Lz+3T 17.90 3.00 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 20.90

to the Olympics.

 

[TCAngel18]

I believe in senior men's, one of the required jump is an axel and if you can land a 3A then you are simply doing a disservice by doing a double. It's a loss of 5.2 points BV.

But when you frequently get negative GOE,
from when you fall, pop or two foot the 3A, plus the 1 point neutral deduction, plus the PCS slight drop from performance, and other corridor categories, is it really worth the risk?

Looking at jump layouts, the 6 quad skate, even with the 2A, Nathan would be at a 91.05 base value, and Yuzuru at a roughly 87 point base value. This was his value at last year’s world championships, where Yuzuru skated out of his eyeballs.

If I’m landing my 3A at a less than 50 percent success rate, and my quads at a much more successful rate, I go with the more secure route.

Btw the above is ONLY the BV for jumping passes.

 

[jaylee]

Impressions from the arena:

Vincent Zhou: I was fine when he was left off the 2017 Worlds team. I see his weaknesses as others do. But in that arena, in an pressure-packed situation, many other skaters crumbled and Vincent did not and he earned my respect with those quad attempts. He was extremely gutsy and he accomplished a great thing under immense pressure, URs and all, and the audience recognized it. The program is not bad (too much Moulin Rouge tonight, sigh). Yes, he needs vast improvement in the components. But I would be comfortable with him on the Olympic team because he went for it under pressure and didn't crumble. I would perhaps feel differently if the skaters with stronger components but without the quads hadn't crumbled, but they did and he did not.

Sadly, I missed the first half of Ross's performance due to an upset stomach that sent me to the bathroom at an inconvenient time. :noshake: I re-watched it at home online and loved it. I've always loved Ross's skating. Saw him at 2012 and 2014 Nationals and he has wonderful skating skills and performance ability. For me, he was second only to Jeremy Abbott in skating skills, and I'd put him ahead of all the other current US men as well.

Grant, Adam, and Jason's performances were tragic. The problems weren't just limited to their pops. But you could just feel all the air sucked out of the arena when they made those costly errors. Yes, they all tried to pull through and finish strong but it just wasn't enough. Jason's performance was pretty messy throughout. Adam's was strange -- given that the fall on the opening quad was pretty much expected, it seemed at first like he was going to be just fine the rest of the way. But I've seen performances where a skater had one fall and they didn't let it affect the rest of the performance. This wasn't that type of performance. Those last two pops didn't feel like he just lost focus -- it felt like he had lost steam and was giving up.

Nathan Chen's performance was workmanlike but at the same time, I was impressed that he came into the competition as the defending champion and with all the buzz about being an Olympic medal contender, he managed to control his nerves and skate relatively cleanly though not perfectly. He had a smart strategy and did what he had to do to defend his title. Even though his mind was somewhat elsewhere, Nathan does have presence and charisma, and I think he has all the talent to create a special Olympic moment.

 

[deneuved]

I cannot believe Ross Miner is even being considered to be sent to the Olympics. Just because he had ONE random good skate (fortunately for him: in nationals)? Have they looked at his other results? *gasps*

 

[da96103]

With the continuing furor over this, all I can come up with is that Ross somehow accidentally summoned the spirit of Freddie Mercury tonight and Freddie looked at Ross and decided it has been far too long since he was on Earth to make a ruckus and shake people up, so he will take this conveniently timed vessel, sprinkle some magic performance dust on him, then bask in the chaos.

Since when Ross Miner had a 4S? Did he get it out of his magic pocket just like Keiji Tanaka with his 4T.

 

[topaz emerald]

SO HAPPY FOR ROSS MINER FOR LANDING HIS QUAL SAL!!!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_roGSuAbbJo i JUST LOVE THIS GUY, CAN WATCH HIM PERFORM ALL DAY.

WOOHOO!!! ROSS, YOU MADE MY NIGHT! I'M SO HAPPY FOR HIM! HE SKATED SO WELL, finnALLY!

 

[GGFan]

I cannot believe Ross Miner is even being considered to be sent to the Olympics. Just because he had ONE random good skate (fortunately for him: in nationals)? Have they looked at his other results? *gasps*

I agree that his inconsistency should give the committee pause but I think the decision is a bit more difficult than you make it appear. As you said yourself the "random good skate" was a nationals. That's huge. We've always heard American skaters say that Nationals is the most nerve racking competition because of how much is at stake. Performing when it counts at this stage and peaking during this time of the year will matter a lot more than a good skate at a senior B for example. Conversely, a skater could be very consistent throughout the year but not put it together on the biggest stages.

 

[jaylee]

Now let's do the same thing with men. NC obviously qualifies, so RM, VZ, and AR duke it out for the 2 spots.

From Nats: RM 2nd, VZ 3rd, AR 4th.
Only AR qualified for GPF.
Nobody went to Worlds.

Nobody went to 4CC.
RM did not participate in GP. VZ highest finish was 4th, with score 256. AR got 2nd twice with 262 and 266.

Sure AR lost to RM and VZ at nats. But AR qualified for GPF and neither of the others did, which almost negates the nats standings. And then you go to T2, and see that AR vastly, vastly outperformed VZ at GP, not to mention RM who wasn't even good enough to be assigned.

Prediction: Nathan Chen, Adam Rippon, Vincent Zhou (in that qualifying order)

Why did you leave out T3 criteria? Vincent placed 2nd at 2017 US Nationals and won the 2017 World Junior Championships, so he handily beats Adam Rippon and Ross Miner there. In addition, he had an argument for making the 2017 Worlds team and USFSA passed over him to send Jason Brown instead. I don't disagree with that decision but it seems hardly fair that it could be held against him now in the Olympic team selection process when he could very easily have been placed on that team, while Adam Rippon and Ross Miner were not close to making the 2017 Worlds team.

 

[deneuved]

I agree that his inconsistency should give the committee pause but I think the decision is a bit more difficult than you make it appear. As you said yourself the "random good skate" was a nationals. That's huge. We've always heard American skaters say that Nationals is the most nerve racking competition because of how much is at stake. Performing when it counts at this stage and peaking during this time of the year will matter a lot more than a good skate at a senior B for example. Conversely, a skate could be very consistent throughout the year but not put it together on the biggest stages.

I think that personally, I don't like this way of choosing a team at all. Just because everything clicked on one day, someone is being sent to the Olympics? While others who have been very consistent (Adam to name here) might be left out? That's a big no-no for me. I still think the German system of choosing the athletes is the best, where they accumulate the points of the three best competitions a skater had in that very season (*including* nationals!).

 

[KwanIsALegend]

Just got back from seeing this live. Heartbroken.
I did not see this coming. Adam was hitting everything in the warm up.

 

[jaylee]

Jackie Wong's look at the selection criteria and how each of the top men (other than Nathan) match up: https://twitter.com/rockerskating/status/949865969056284672

 

[IonGrey]

Why did you leave out T3 criteria? Vincent placed 2nd at 2017 US Nationals and won the 2017 World Junior Championships, so he handily beats Adam Rippon and Ross Miner there. In addition, he had an argument for making the 2017 Worlds team and USFSA passed over him to send Jason Brown instead. I don't disagree with that decision but it seems hardly fair that it could be held against him now in the Olympic team selection process when he could very easily have been placed on that team, while Adam Rippon and Ross Miner were not close to making the 2017 Worlds team.

It's a bit strange to say "oh we picked X over Y bc X performed better at LAST YEAR's nats, like that was the deciding factor for us. we went back, dug up the archives, and then we decided that Y's fate was already sealed when he screwed up nats last year" I'm not trying to mock what ur saying, I'm just visualizing what happens when USFS releases a statement like that and the public reaction etc. etc.

Also, it's kinda unfair to penalize Rippon and Miner for not going to juniors because they were age ineligible. whereas RM has no excuse for his absence from GP. But I definitely agree with you that the team should be Chen, Zhou, Rippon.

 

[topaz emerald]

The winner was fair and square Nathan on jumps. Loser Vera Wang - oh dear what was the woman thinking - did Evan design Nathan's outfits? Mayb he wanted to make sure Nathan doesn't win OG so he will be the most recent American hero? Anyways, no one will sleep to night but Nathan and many people not caught u p in the drama on who goes to the olympics for the men or who are not having nightmares from Vera Wang's fashion faux pas!

VERA WANG IS JUST A DISASTER FOR NATHAN. LOOK, EVER SINCE HE STARTED WEARING VERA'S CLOTHING, HE STOPPED DOING HIS 3AXEL

MAYBE VERA CHOPPED OFF NATHAN'S CURLS TOO.

 

[TCAngel18]

Why did you leave out T3 criteria? Vincent placed 2nd at 2017 US Nationals and won the 2017 World Junior Championships, so he handily beats Adam Rippon and Ross Miner there. In addition, he had an argument for making the 2017 Worlds team and USFSA passed over him to send Jason Brown instead. I don't disagree with that decision but it seems hardly fair that it could be held against him now in the Olympic team selection process when he could very easily have been placed on that team, while Adam Rippon and Ross Miner were not close to making the 2017 Worlds team.

Of course Adam wasn’t close to making the 2017 worlds team, he was out of Nationals with an injury, not because of a bad result.

He also made the GPF that year, and won Nationals the year before and placed top 6 at worlds. No, those aren’t considered in their tiered criteria, but IMO they should have been. If you put 2017 worlds as a tier 1, it doesn’t make sense to not have 2016 worlds a tier 3.

If I am USFed, I may play the what-if game. If Adam wasn’t injured last year, he probably finishes 2nd at 2017 Nationals, because he had been skating pretty dang consistent these past 2 years. Then gets a Worlds spot, and Vincent never gets passed over.

Granted, none of that is part of their tier system, but if they come up with what in their minds is a tie, they may just have to look outside the box.

 

[Skater Boy]

Impressions from the arena:

Vincent Zhou: I was fine when he was left off the 2017 Worlds team. I see his weaknesses as others do. But in that arena, in an pressure-packed situation, many other skaters crumbled and Vincent did not and he earned my respect with those quad attempts. He was extremely gutsy and he accomplished a great thing under immense pressure, URs and all, and the audience recognized it. The program is not bad (too much Moulin Rouge tonight, sigh). Yes, he needs vast improvement in the components. But I would be comfortable with him on the Olympic team because he went for it under pressure and didn't crumble. I would perhaps feel differently if the skaters with stronger components but without the quads hadn't crumbled, but they did and he did not.

Sadly, I missed the first half of Ross's performance due to an upset stomach that sent me to the bathroom at an inconvenient time. :noshake: I re-watched it at home online and loved it. I've always loved Ross's skating. Saw him at 2012 and 2014 Nationals and he has wonderful skating skills and performance ability. For me, he was second only to Jeremy Abbott in skating skills, and I'd put him ahead of all the other current US men as well.

Grant, Adam, and Jason's performances were tragic. The problems weren't just limited to their pops. But you could just feel all the air sucked out of the arena when they made those costly errors. Yes, they all tried to pull through and finish strong but it just wasn't enough. Jason's performance was pretty messy throughout. Adam's was strange -- given that the fall on the opening quad was pretty much expected, it seemed at first like he was going to be just fine the rest of the way. But I've seen performances where a skater had one fall and they didn't let it affect the rest of the performance. This wasn't that type of performance. Those last two pops didn't feel like he just lost focus -- it felt like he had lost steam and was giving up.

Nathan Chen's performance was workmanlike but at the same time, I was impressed that he came into the competition as the defending champion and with all the buzz about being an Olympic medal contender, he managed to control his nerves and skate relatively cleanly though not perfectly. He had a smart strategy and did what he had to do to defend his title. Even though his mind was somewhat elsewhere, Nathan does have presence and charisma, and I think he has all the talent to create a special Olympic moment.

I give Nathan full credit to skate with a cold or w hatever and having to wear those dreadful Vera Wang monstrocities. Maybe there is some deal and maybe judges will give a few points because it is Vera Wang and thus supposed to be good - but really I wonder sometimes when the skaters p ump up t heir performances and the meanings or designers for their outfits. T his olympics very few really pump up their costuems but for those wearing Vera Wang. Vera should forced to sell her clothes at some discount store (the joke among top haute couture designers is when you end up having lines of your clothes at discount stores - of course many know it is also good business sense some times. But I do admit I have seen former big design names kind of go downhill on the reputation skill or power ranking once they start hocking their clothes at whatever discount retailer.

It is almost the worst scenario for making a decision with Ross in second = maybe he should be happy he got his Paul Wylie moment and now he has to let it go. When you look at the body of work he shouldn't go. It just would have been easier had Adam been third or Ross third. I do feel bad about Vincent and last year but he has not skated well this year or very consistently. He has been all over the place.

Bring on the tears tomorrow/today.

 

[Skater Boy]

VERA WANG IS JUST A DISASTER FOR NATHAN. LOOK, EVER SINCE HE STARTED WEARING VERA'S CLOTHING, HE STOPPED DOING HIS 3AXEL

MAYBE VERA CHOPPED OFF NATHAN'S CURLS TOO.

Or maybe this is some evil plot by Evan so that Nathan won't win OGM and Evan will still be the US golden boy alone? LOL Oh Vera- go hock your designs at a discount store; do not touch the national treasures.

 

[IonGrey]

Jackie Wong's look at the selection criteria and how each of the top men (other than Nathan) match up: https://twitter.com/rockerskating/status/949865969056284672

This is making me question RM even getting 1st alternate. Other than NC, Jason Brown is the the only one who's qualified for Worlds AND GPF. Not to mention his GP scores arent bad at all compared to the others.