2019-20 Japanese ladies' figure skating

[readernick]

Japanese fed almost always goes with national results when choosing who to send to World's.

Rika is currently in the lead and she is not likely to fail so badly in her LP that she ends up off the podium. (her lowest scoring LP this year is still higher than any of the other ladies season's best performances). If you noticed in the SP, she was one of the few skaters who didn't have their TES go down on review. Good technique gives her an advantage with strict panels. (Japanese panels are strict) 90% chance Rika wins this.

So if Wakaba does well in the LP, she will almost certainly be sent to World's. The uncertainty is not in whether the fed will choose her, but rather in whether she has the stamina to do a 3A and rotate her 3-3s. She can do the jumps but she hasn't been able to do them all cleanly in competition. Also, she gets edge calls on her 3Fs. However, she has a higher scoring potential than Kaori (flutz/lower BV) and Satoko (Urs) so she could end up 2nd here if she delivers. I can't see the Japanese federation propping up Kaori if she doesn't deliver. Her results this year don't support that. Satoko will get high PCS ( she deserves it) but the Japanese technical panel is harsh on URs. ( her 3lo in the SP was barely under but the strict panel gave her a UR call)

Wakaba is just as likely to make the team as Satoko and Kaori. It will all come down to her stamina/ performance.

 

[zanadude]

Wakaba has been landing 3A in practice. That's why he said that I believe.

She's been working on that for years. It's as much vaporware as Miki Ando's 4S.

But hey, I hope she proves me wrong.

 

[randomfan]

How is the starting order usually determined for Japanese Nationals? Every year it’s so bizarre...like Mako is one of the more established ladies here and she still has to skate in the first group?

Also, I really enjoyed Tomoe’s performance and thought she was underscored in PCS. I can’t wait until she moves up to seniors (I think she has 2 years left until she’s forced to go up?).

 

[Joekaz]

She's been working on that for years. It's as much vaporware as Miki Ando's 4S.

But hey, I hope she proves me wrong.

She was landing it two days ago in public practice and might use it in LP she said.

 

[Bluediamonds09]

I’m so curious to see who Japan sends to junior worlds! Which ladies were top 3 at junior nationals? Who in the ongoing senior competition is still eligible to go?

 

[zanadude]

I’m so curious to see who Japan sends to junior worlds! Which ladies were top 3 at junior nationals? Who in the ongoing senior competition is still eligible to go?

Mana Kawabe won junior nationals, and is going to worlds.

The others will be chosen based on performance at senior nationals. Currently Tomoe Kawabata is in seventh and Shiika Yoshioka is in eleventh.

 

[zanadude]

She was landing it two days ago in public practice and might use it in LP she said.

Like I said, she's been working on it for years, so I won't believe she has a triple axel until she lands one in competition. If she were confident, she would have done it in the short.

Personally, I think there's a 50% chance she even tries one in the free, a 25% chance she tries it and doesn't fall, and a 10% chance she tries it, doesn't fall, doesn't underrotate, and gets positive GOE.

 

[Joekaz]

Like I said, she's been working on it for years, so I won't believe she has a triple axel until she lands one in competition. If she were confident, she would have done it in the short.

Personally, I think there's a 50% chance she even tries one in the free, a 25% chance she tries it and doesn't fall, and a 10% chance she tries it, doesn't fall, doesn't underrotate, and gets positive GOE.

It looked good enough to try as a stand alone jump, but her landing doesn't look controlled enough for a combo. I would like to see her try it, but would be happy just to see a clean program.

 

[skatenewbie]

Like I said, she's been working on it for years, so I won't believe she has a triple axel until she lands one in competition. If she were confident, she would have done it in the short.

Personally, I think there's a 50% chance she even tries one in the free, a 25% chance she tries it and doesn't fall, and a 10% chance she tries it, doesn't fall, doesn't underrotate, and gets positive GOE.

Its not the same. She's been working for it since 2016 or 2017, thats only 2-3 years ago. She landed it in 2017 WTT. But in 2018 she got injured and can't even jump 3-3 properly, so she stopped training 3A and just trying again this season, i believe. Its different with Miki Ando who landed that 4S in 2002 (?) and have been trying it again for 5 years or even more with no success even on practice.

 

[zanadude]

She landed it in 2017 WTT.

No she didn't.

 

[skatenewbie]

No she didn't.

forgot to say it was in practice, in the footage. And thats when people start hyping her up to be the next japanese lady to land 3A

 

[MiraiFan]

I watched most of the SP and was impressed. The Japanese ladies have beautiful skating skills, flowing edges, and their musical interpretation is wonderful. Particularly enjoyed Wakaba and Kaori's choreography and expression. Thought Satoko was over-scored given the state of her jumps, but cannot dispute her gorgeous presentation. What a treat. Somebody remarked that the level here was way lower than Russian nationals will be, but I enjoyed these programs so much!

 

[MiraiFan]

Also, I really enjoyed Tomoe’s performance and thought she was underscored in PCS. I can’t wait until she moves up to seniors (I think she has 2 years left until she’s forced to go up?).

I thought she was wonderful--the program is just lovely and she has gorgeous presentation.

 

[Canadianskatingfan]

What time (EST) does the ladies free start? GO WAKABABY AND SATOKO <3 and good luck to all the other ladies!

 

[Joekaz]

What time (EST) does the ladies free start? GO WAKABABY AND SATOKO <3 and good luck to all the other ladies!

Last 2 groups at 5:27 am.

 

[zanadude]

forgot to say it was in practice, in the footage

Well there you go. It's always something from practice. Going from practice to actual competition is almost as far as going from harness to no harness.

 

[Joekaz]

Well there you go. It's always something from practice. Going from practice to actual competition is almost as far as going from harness to no harness.

I think Wakaba would be happy just to skate clean, regardless of the placement. Its been a long time since she's been healthy and in form.

 

[zanadude]

I think Wakaba would be happy just to skate clean, regardless of the placement. Its been a long time since she's been healthy and in form.

I'm sure she would, but the conversation was about her chances of making Worlds. If that is her goal, then she needs to try it, however ready it may be.

 

[Joekaz]

I'm sure she would, but the conversation was about her chances of making Worlds. If that is her goal, then she needs to try it, however ready it may be.

I agree. Without the 3A she woould need Satoko and Kaori to make multiple major errors. 2 years ago she would be ok, but she won't get the scoring help from the judges those 2 will this year. Whether she attempts it will show what her real goal is, and confidence level.

 

[zanadude]

In the end, Wakaba employed the Stephen Bradbury strategy of staying on her feet and letting other people around her fall over. And incredibly, it worked! She destroyed both Sakamoto and Miyahara by a huge margin.

I no longer think that Sakamoto or Miyahara deserve to go to Senior Worlds. Send Higuchi and Kawabata instead!